Proteins associated with future suicide attempts in bipolar disorder: A large-scale biomarker discovery study.

Suicide is a major cause of death worldwide. Several biological systems have been implicated in suicidal behavior but studies of candidate biomarkers have failed to produce clinically relevant biomarkers for suicide prediction. The objective of the present study was to identify novel candidate biomarkers for suicidal behavior. We used a nested case-control study design where a large cohort of patients with bipolar disorder (N = 5 110) were followed up to 8 years after blood sampling. We included patients that attempted suicide during follow-up (N = 348) and matched bipolar disorder patients from the same cohort who did not attempt suicide during the study period (N = 348) and analyzed a total of 92 proteins with a neuro exploratory multiplex panel. Using a multivariate classification algorithm devised to minimize bias in variable selection, we identified a parsimonious set of proteins that best discriminated bipolar disorder patients with and without prospective suicide attempts. The algorithm selected 16 proteins for the minimal-optimal classification model, which outperformed 500 models with permuted outcome (p = 0.0004) but had low sensitivity (53%) and specificity (64%). The candidate proteins were then entered in separate logistic regression models to calculate protein-specific associations with prospective suicide attempts. In individual analyses, three of these proteins were significantly associated with prospective suicide attempt (SCGB1A1, ANXA10, and CETN2). Most of the candidate proteins are novel to suicide research.

Low neuropeptide Y in cerebrospinal fluid in bipolar patients is associated with previous and prospective suicide attempts.

The attempted and accomplished suicide rates in patients with bipolar disorder are 40-50% and 15-20%, respectively. No biological markers that help predict suicide been identified. Human and experimental animal data indicate that dysregulation of the neuropeptide Y (NPY) system plays a role in depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The aim of this study was to explore if low cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) NPY is associated with (1) past suicide attempts, (2) future suicide attempts, and (3) trait anxiety. Lumbar puncture was performed on 120 clinically stable patients with bipolar disorder enrolled in the St Göran Bipolar Project, where the number of previous suicide attempts was documented. NPY-like immunoreactivity (NPY-LI) was determined in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Patients were reexamined one year after the lumbar puncture and suicide attempts were recorded. NPY-LI was significantly lower in patients with a history of suicide attempt than in patients who had not attempted suicide prior to lumbar puncture. Importantly, NPY-LI was markedly lower in patients who made a suicide attempt during the follow-up period compared to patients who did not. Patients who attempted suicide during the follow-up also had markedly lower NPY-LI than those with previous suicide attempts who did not reattempt. Our results suggest that low CSF NPY-LI predicts future suicide attempts. The data are in line with the hypothesis that NPY signaling is altered in affective disorders and states of emotional dysregulation.