Coast-to-Coast Spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the Early Epidemic in the United States.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the United States, we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated effects of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence of widespread sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the United States and highlights the critical need for local surveillance.

Estimated population-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against all-cause pneumonia mortality among unvaccinated age groups in five Latin American countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Population-Level Relative Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Vaccines and the Contribution of Naturally Acquired Immunity.

BACKGROUND: Immune protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be induced by natural infection or vaccination or both. Interaction between vaccine-induced immunity and naturally acquired immunity at the population level has been understudied. METHODS: We used regression models to evaluate whether the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines differed across states with different levels of naturally acquired immunity from March 2021 to April 2022 in the United States. Analysis was conducted for 3 evaluation periods separately (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves). As a proxy for the proportion of the population with naturally acquired immunity, we used either the reported seroprevalence or the estimated proportion of the population ever infected in each state. RESULTS: COVID-19 mortality decreased as coverage of ≥1 dose increased among people ≥65 years of age, and this effect did not vary by seroprevalence or proportion of the total population ever infected. Seroprevalence and proportion ever infected were not associated with COVID-19 mortality, after controlling for vaccine coverage. These findings were consistent in all evaluation periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a sustained reduction in mortality at state level during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods. The effect did not vary by naturally acquired immunity.

Use of COVIDTests.gov At-Home Test Kits Among Adults in a National Household Probability Sample - United States, 2022.

At-home rapid antigen COVID-19 tests were first authorized by the Food and Drug Administration in late 2020 (1-3). In January 2022, the White House launched COVIDTests.gov, which made all U.S. households eligible to receive free-to-the-user at-home test kits distributed by the U.S. Postal Service (2). By May 2022, more than 70 million test kit packages had been shipped to households across the United States (2); however, how these kits were used, and which groups were using them, has not been reported. Data from a national probability survey of U.S. households (COVIDVu), collected during April-May 2022, were used to evaluate awareness about and use of these test kits (4). Most respondent households (93.8%) were aware of the program, and more than one half (59.9%) had ordered kits. Among persons who received testing for COVID-19 during the preceding 6 months, 38.3% used a COVIDTests.gov kit. Among kit users, 95.5% rated the experience as acceptable, and 23.6% reported being unlikely to have tested without the COVIDTests.gov program. Use of COVIDTests.gov kits was similar among racial and ethnic groups (42.1% non-Hispanic Black or African American [Black]; 41.5% Hispanic or Latino [Hispanic]; 34.8% non-Hispanic White [White]; and 53.7% non-Hispanic other races [other races]). Use of other home COVID-19 tests differed by race and ethnicity (11.8% Black, 44.4% Hispanic, 45.8% White, 43.8% other races). Compared with White persons, Black persons were 72% less likely to use other home test kits (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 0.28; 95% CI = 0.16-0.50). Provision of tests through this well-publicized program likely improved use of COVID-19 home testing and health equity in the United States, particularly among Black persons. National programs to address availability and accessibility of critical health services in a pandemic response have substantial health value.

Cumulative Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Adults in Georgia, United States, August to December 2020.

BACKGROUND: Reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases underestimate true severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. Data on all infections, including asymptomatic infections, are needed. To minimize biases in estimates from reported cases and seroprevalence surveys, we conducted a household-based probability survey and estimated cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections adjusted for antibody waning. METHODS: From August to December 2020, we mailed specimen collection kits (nasal swabs and blood spots) to a random sample of Georgia addresses. One household adult completed a survey and returned specimens for virus and antibody testing. We estimated cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections adjusted for waning antibodies, reported fraction, and infection fatality ratio (IFR). Differences in seropositivity among demographic, geographic, and clinical subgroups were explored with weighted prevalence ratios (PR). RESULTS: Among 1370 participants, adjusted cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was 16.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], 13.5%-19.2%) as of 16 November 2020. The reported fraction was 26.6% and IFR was 0.78%. Non-Hispanic black (PR, 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.1) and Hispanic adults (PR, 1.98; 95% CI, .74-5.31) were more likely than non-Hispanic white adults to be seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: As of mid-November 2020, 1 in 6 adults in Georgia had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. The COVID-19 epidemic in Georgia is likely substantially underestimated by reported cases.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cumulative Incidence, United States, August 2020-December 2020.

BACKGROUND: Reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases underestimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. We conducted a national probability survey of US households to estimate cumulative incidence adjusted for antibody waning. METHODS: From August-December 2020 a random sample of US addresses were mailed a survey and self-collected nasal swabs and dried blood spot cards. One adult household member completed the survey and mail specimens for viral detection and total (immunoglobulin [Ig] A, IgM, IgG) nucleocapsid antibody by a commercial, emergency use authorization-approved antigen capture assay. We estimated cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 adjusted for waning antibodies and calculated reported fraction (RF) and infection fatality ratio (IFR). Differences in seropositivity among demographic, geographic, and clinical subgroups were explored. RESULTS: Among 39 500 sampled households, 4654 respondents provided responses. Cumulative incidence adjusted for waning was 11.9% (95% credible interval [CrI], 10.5%-13.5%) as of 30 October 2020. We estimated 30 332 842 (CrI, 26 703 753-34 335 338) total infections in the US adult population by 30 October 2020. RF was 22.3% and IFR was 0.85% among adults. Black non-Hispanics (Prevalence ratio (PR) 2.2) and Hispanics (PR, 3.1) were more likely than White non-Hispanics to be seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: One in 8 US adults had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October 2020; however, few had been accounted for in public health reporting. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely substantially underestimated by reported cases. Disparities in COVID-19 by race observed among reported cases cannot be attributed to differential diagnosis or reporting of infections in population subgroups.

Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age. METHODS: We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death. RESULTS: The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2-59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%-35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%-41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%-18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0-34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%-47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2-59 months since introduction. CONCLUSIONS: Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

Norovirus and Other Viral Causes of Medically Attended Acute Gastroenteritis Across the Age Spectrum: Results from the Medically Attended Acute Gastroenteritis Study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) causes a substantial burden in the United States, but its etiology frequently remains undetermined. Active surveillance within an integrated healthcare delivery system was used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of medically attended norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus. METHODS: Active surveillance was conducted among all enrolled members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest during July 2014-June 2016. An age-stratified, representative sample of AGE-associated medical encounters were recruited to provide a stool specimen to be tested for norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus. Medically attended AGE (MAAGE) encounters for a patient occurring within 30 days were grouped into 1 episode, and all-cause MAAGE incidence was calculated. Pathogen- and healthcare setting-specific incidence estimates were calculated using age-stratified bootstrapping. RESULTS: The overall incidence of MAAGE was 40.6 episodes per 1000 person-years (PY), with most episodes requiring no more than outpatient care. Norovirus was the most frequently detected pathogen, with an incidence of 5.5 medically attended episodes per 1000 PY. Incidence of norovirus MAAGE was highest among children aged < 5 years (20.4 episodes per 1000 PY), followed by adults aged ≥ 65 years (4.5 episodes per 1000 PY). Other study pathogens showed similar patterns by age, but lower overall incidence (sapovirus: 2.4 per 1000 PY; astrovirus: 1.3 per 1000 PY; rotavirus: 0.5 per 1000 PY). CONCLUSIONS: Viral enteropathogens, particularly norovirus, are important contributors to MAAGE, especially among children < 5 years of age. The present findings underline the importance of judicious antibiotics use for pediatric AGE and suggest that an effective norovirus vaccine could substantially reduce MAAGE.

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related. Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.

Incorporating Information on Control Diseases Across Space and Time to Improve Estimation of the Population-level Impact of Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: The synthetic control method evaluates the impact of vaccines while adjusting for a set of control time series representing diseases that are unaffected by the vaccine. However, noise in control time series, particularly in areas with small counts, can obscure the association with the outcome, preventing proper adjustments. To overcome this issue, we investigated the use of temporal and spatial aggregation methods to smooth the controls and allow for adjustment of underlying trends. METHODS: We evaluated the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations among adults ≥80 years of age in 25 states in Brazil from 2005 to 2015. Pneumonia hospitalizations in this group indicated a strong increasing secular trend over time that may influence estimation of the vaccine impact. First, we aggregated control time series separately by time or space before incorporation into the synthetic control model. Next, we developed distributed lags models (DLMs) to automatically determine what level of aggregation was most appropriate for each control. RESULTS: The aggregation of control time series enabled the synthetic control model to identify stronger associations between outcome and controls. As a result, the aggregation models and DLMs succeeded in adjusting for long-term trends even in smaller states with sparse data, leading to more reliable estimates of vaccine impact. CONCLUSIONS: When synthetic control struggles to identify important prevaccine associations due to noise in control time series, users can aggregate controls over time or space to generate more robust estimates of the vaccine impact. DLMs automate this process without requiring prespecification of the aggregation level.

Estimating the Cumulative Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Infection Fatality Ratio in Light of Waning Antibodies.

BACKGROUND: Serology tests can identify previous infections and facilitate estimation of the number of total infections. However, immunoglobulins targeting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported to wane below the detectable level of serologic assays (which is not necessarily equivalent to the duration of protective immunity). We estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from serology studies, accounting for expected levels of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) and waning (seroreversion), and apply this framework using data from New York City and Connecticut. METHODS: We estimated time from seroconversion to seroreversion and infection fatality ratio (IFR) using mortality data from March to October 2020 and population-level cross-sectional seroprevalence data from April to August 2020 in New York City and Connecticut. We then estimated the daily seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: The estimated average time from seroconversion to seroreversion was 3-4 months. The estimated IFR was 1.1% (95% credible interval, 1.0%, 1.2%) in New York City and 1.4% (1.1, 1.7%) in Connecticut. The estimated daily seroprevalence declined after a peak in the spring. The estimated cumulative incidence reached 26.8% (24.2%, 29.7%) at the end of September in New York City and 8.8% (7.1%, 11.3%) in Connecticut, higher than maximum seroprevalence measures (22.1% and 6.1%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is underestimated using cross-sectional serology data without adjustment for waning antibodies. Our approach can help quantify the magnitude of underestimation and adjust estimates for waning antibodies.

Etiology of Diarrhea Among Hospitalized Children in Blantyre, Malawi, Following Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction: A Case-Control Study.

Despite rotavirus vaccination, diarrhea remains a leading cause of child mortality. We collected stool specimens from 684 children <5 years of age hospitalized with diarrhea (cases) and 527 asymptomatic community controls for 4 years after rotavirus vaccine introduction in Malawi. Specimens were tested for 29 pathogens, using polymerase chain reaction analysis. Three or more pathogens were detected in 71% of cases and 48% of controls. Pathogens significantly associated with diarrhea included rotavirus (in 34.7% of cases and 1.5% of controls), enteric adenovirus (in 29.1% and 2.7%, respectively), Cryptosporidium (in 27.8% and 8.2%, respectively), heat-stable enterotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (in 21.2% and 8.5%, respectively), typical enteropathogenic E. coli (in 18.0% and 8.3%, respectively), and Shigella/enteroinvasive E. coli (in 15.8% and 5.7%, respectively). Additional interventions are required to prevent diarrhea due to rotavirus and other common causal pathogens.

Challenges in Estimating the Impact of Vaccination with Sparse Data.

BACKGROUND: The synthetic control model is a powerful tool to quantify the population-level impact of vaccines because it can adjust for trends unrelated to vaccination using a composite of control diseases. Because vaccine impact studies are often conducted using smaller, subnational datasets, we evaluated the performance of synthetic control models with sparse time series data. To obtain more robust estimates of vaccine impacts from noisy time series, we proposed a possible alternative approach, STL+PCA method (seasonal-trend decomposition plus principal component analysis), which first extracts smoothed trends from the control time series and uses them to adjust the outcome. METHODS: Using both the synthetic control and STL+PCA models, we estimated the impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia hospitalizations among cases <12 months and 80+ years of age during 2004-2014 at the subnational level in Brazil. We compared the performance of these models using simulation analyses. RESULTS: The synthetic control model was able to adjust for trends unrelated to 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in larger states but not in smaller states. Simulation analyses showed that the estimates obtained with the synthetic control approach were biased when there were fewer cases, and only 4% of simulations had credible intervals covering the true estimate. In contrast, the STL+PCA analysis had 90% lower bias and had 95% of simulations, with credible intervals covering the true estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates from the synthetic control model might be biased when data are sparse. The STL+PCA model provides more accurate evaluations of vaccine impact in smaller populations.

Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines on Pneumonia Hospitalizations in High- and Low-Income Subpopulations in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are being used worldwide. A key question is whether the impact of PCVs on pneumonia is similar in low- and high-income populations. However, most low-income countries, where the burden of disease is greatest, lack reliable data that can be used to evaluate the impact. Data from middle-income countries that have both low- and high-income subpopulations can provide a proxy measure for the impact of the vaccine in low-income countries. METHODS: We evaluated the impact of PCV10 on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in Brazil, a middle-income country with localities that span a broad range of human development index (HDI) levels. We used complementary time series and spatiotemporal methods (synthetic controls and hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression) to test whether the decline in pneumonia hospitalizations associated with vaccine introduction varied across the socioeconomic spectrum. RESULTS: We found that the declines in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations in children and young and middle-aged adults did not vary substantially across low and high HDI subpopulations. Moreover, the estimated declines seen in infants and young adults were associated with higher levels of uptake of the vaccine at a local level. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that PCVs have an important impact on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in both low- and high-income populations.

Near Real-Time Surveillance of U.S. Norovirus Outbreaks by the Norovirus Sentinel Testing and Tracking Network - United States, August 2009-July 2015.

Norovirus is the leading cause of endemic and epidemic acute gastroenteritis in the United States (1). New variant strains of norovirus GII.4 emerge every 2-4 years (2-4) and are often associated with increased disease and health care visits (5-7). Since 2009, CDC has obtained epidemiologic data on norovirus outbreaks from state health departments through the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) (8) and laboratory data through CaliciNet (9). NORS is a web-based platform for reporting waterborne, foodborne, and enteric disease outbreaks of all etiologies, including norovirus, to CDC. CaliciNet, a nationwide electronic surveillance system of local and state public health and regulatory agency laboratories, collects genetic sequences of norovirus strains associated with gastroenteritis outbreaks. Because these two independent reporting systems contain complementary data, integration of NORS and CaliciNet records could provide valuable public health information about norovirus outbreaks. However, reporting lags and inconsistent identification codes in NORS and CaliciNet records have been an obstacle to developing an integrated surveillance system.

Acute Flaccid Myelitis in the United States, August-December 2014: Results of Nationwide Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: During late summer/fall 2014, pediatric cases of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) occurred in the United States, coincident with a national outbreak of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68)-associated severe respiratory illness. METHODS: Clinicians and health departments reported standardized clinical, epidemiologic, and radiologic information on AFM cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and submitted biological samples for testing. Cases were ≤21 years old, with acute onset of limb weakness 1 August-31 December 2014 and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showing lesions predominantly restricted to gray matter. RESULTS: From August through December 2014, 120 AFM cases were reported from 34 states. Median age was 7.1 years (interquartile range, 4.8-12.1 years); 59% were male. Most experienced respiratory (81%) or febrile (64%) illness before limb weakness onset. MRI abnormalities were predominantly in the cervical spinal cord (103/118). All but 1 case was hospitalized; none died. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis (>5 white blood cells/µL) was common (81%). At CDC, 1 CSF specimen was positive for EV-D68 and Epstein-Barr virus by real-time polymerase chain reaction, although the specimen had >3000 red blood cells/µL. The most common virus detected in upper respiratory tract specimens was EV-D68 (from 20%, and 47% with specimen collected ≤7 days from respiratory illness/fever onset). Continued surveillance in 2015 identified 16 AFM cases reported from 13 states. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiologic data suggest this AFM cluster was likely associated with the large outbreak of EV-D68-associated respiratory illness, although direct laboratory evidence linking AFM with EV-D68 remains inconclusive. Continued surveillance will help define the incidence, epidemiology, and etiology of AFM.

Superior Mesenteric Arterial Flow Pattern is Associated with Major Adverse Events in Adults with Fontan Circulation.

Factors contributing to the failure of Fontan circulation in adults are poorly understood. Reduced superior mesenteric arterial (SMA) flow has been identified in pediatric Fontan patients with protein-losing enteropathy. SMA flow has not been profiled in an adult Fontan population and its association with adverse events is unknown. We aimed to examine associations between SMA flow patterns and adverse events in adult Fontan patients. We performed a retrospective review of adult Fontan patients who underwent echocardiograms between 2008 and 2014. SMA Doppler data included peak systolic and end-diastolic velocity and velocity time integral (VTI). Systolic/diastolic (S/D) ratio and resistive index were calculated. The relationship between SMA flow parameters and major adverse events (death or transplantation) was examined using proportional hazard Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Meyer analysis was conducted to construct survival curve of patients with and without adverse events. 91 post-Fontan adult patients (76 % systemic left ventricle, 20 % atriopulmonary Fontan, mean age 27.9 years) were analyzed. Adverse events occurred in nine patients (death = 4, transplant = 5). When compared with the non-event group, the event group had increased end-diastolic velocity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.5, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.8; p = 0.002], increased systolic VTI (HR 1.5, 95 % CI 1.1-2.2, p = 0.02), increased diastolic VTI (HR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4, p = 0.004), decreased S/D velocity ratio (HR 0.32, 95 % CI 0.14-0.71, p = 0.006), decreased S/D VTI ratio (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.61-0.97, p = 0.02), and decreased resistive index (HR 0.29, 95 % CI 0.14-0.60, p = 0.0007). Increased end-diastolic velocity and VTI in mesenteric arterial flow, with lower systolic/diastolic ratio and resistive index, were associated with death and need for heart transplant in adult Fontan patients. The mesenteric hyperemic flow was also associated with clinical signs of portal venous outflow obstruction, suggesting the presence of vasodilatory state in end-stage adult Fontan circulation.

Purchase, consumption, and ownership of chickens and chicken products among households in Maputo, Mozambique: A cross-sectional study.

Background: Chickens are an important source of animal protein, nutrition, and income in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). They are also a major reservoir of enteropathogens that contribute to the burden of illnesses among children. Food systems present a risk for transmission of enteropathogens from poultry to humans, but there is a lack of population-level data on the pattern of purchase, ownership, and consumption of live chickens and their products in LMICs to better characterize that risk. Methods: To assess chicken purchase, ownership, and consumption practices, we conducted a population-based survey using a structured questionnaire in Maputo, Mozambique in 2021. Multi-stage cluster sampling was used to obtain a representative sample of households in our study area. To minimize sampling bias and ensure a representative sample, we applied survey weighting using district-level population data and estimated weighted population-level values. Results: Heads of 570 households in Maputo completed our survey. Approximately half of these households purchased broiler chicken meat (weighted percentage of households: 44.8%) and eggs (46.5%) in the previous week of the survey date, while indigenous chicken meat was less popular (1,950, 1.1%). The most common source of chicken products was corner stores (i.e., small convenience shops on streets), followed by wet markets. Live chickens were raised by 15.6% of households, and chicken feces were observed on the floor or ground at the majority of these households during house visits. Discussion: Our findings suggest that poultry provides a major source of animal protein in this setting. With the predicted growth of poultry farming in LMICs in the coming decades, ensuring food safety at the primary sources of chicken products (corner stores and wet markets) in urban areas will be critical to mitigate health risks.

Comparative effectiveness of alternative intervals between first and second doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

The optimal interval between the first and second doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines has not been thoroughly evaluated. Employing a target trial emulation approach, we compared the effectiveness of different interdose intervals among >6 million mRNA vaccine recipients in Georgia, USA, from December 2020 to March 2022. We compared three protocols defined by interdose interval: recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (17-25 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 24-32 days for Moderna), late-but-allowable (26-42 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 33-49 days for Moderna), and late ( ≥ 43 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; ≥50 days for Moderna). In the short-term, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was lowest under the FDA-recommended protocol. Longer-term, the late-but-allowable protocol resulted in the lowest risk (risk ratio on Day 120 after the first dose administration compared to the FDA-recommended protocol: 0.83 [95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.84]). Here, we showed that delaying the second dose by 1-2 weeks may provide stronger long-term protection.