The Potential Benefits of Delaying Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Selections for the Northern Hemisphere: A Retrospective Modeling Study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Antigenic similarity between vaccine viruses and circulating viruses is crucial for achieving high vaccine effectiveness against seasonal influenza. New non-egg-based vaccine production technologies could revise current vaccine formulation schedules. We aim to assess the potential benefit of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine virus selection decisions. METHODS: We identified seasons where season-dominant viruses presented increasing prevalence after vaccine formulation had been decided in February for the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to their antigenic discrepancy with vaccine viruses. Using a SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model of seasonal influenza in the United States, we evaluated the impact of updating vaccine decisions with more antigenically similar vaccine viruses on the influenza burden in the United States. RESULTS: In 2014-2015 and 2019-2020, the season-dominant A(H3N2) subclade and B/Victoria clade, respectively, presented increasing prevalence after vaccine decisions were already made for the Northern Hemisphere. Our model showed that the updated A(H3N2) vaccine could have averted 5000-65 000 influenza hospitalizations in the United States in 2014-2015, whereas updating the B/Victoria vaccine component did not substantially change influenza burden in the 2019-2020 season. CONCLUSIONS: With rapid vaccine production, revising current timelines for vaccine selection could result in substantial epidemiological benefits, particularly when additional data could help improve the antigenic match between vaccine and circulating viruses.

Hemagglutination Inhibition Antibody Titers as Mediators of Influenza Vaccine Efficacy Against Symptomatic Influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B/Victoria Virus Infections.

BACKGROUND: The hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HAI) titer contributes only a part of vaccine-induced protection against influenza virus infections. Using causal mediation analysis, we quantified the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated by postvaccination HAI titers. METHODS: We conducted causal mediation analyses using data from a randomized, active-comparator controlled, phase III, trial of an inactivated, split-virion seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine in children conducted from October 2010 to December 2011 in 8 countries. Vaccine efficacy was estimated using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Estimates were decomposed into the direct and indirect effects mediated by postvaccination HAI titers. RESULTS: The proportions of vaccine efficacy mediated by postvaccination HAI titers were estimated to be 22% (95% confidence interval, 18%--47%) for influenza A(H1N1), 20% (16%-39%) for influenza A(H3N2), and 37% (26%-85%) for influenza B/Victoria. CONCLUSIONS: HAI titers partially mediate influenza vaccine efficacy against influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B/Victoria. Our estimates were lower than in previous studies, possibly reflecting expected heterogeneity in antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating viruses across seasons.

Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic.

To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases while transitioning out of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are moving toward an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and other respiratory pathogens. Although many surveillance approaches catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic provide novel epidemiologic insight, continuing them as implemented during the pandemic is unlikely to be feasible for nonemergency surveillance, and many have already been scaled back. Furthermore, given anticipated cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, surveillance activities in place before the pandemic require review and adjustment to ensure their ongoing value for public health. In this report, we highlight key challenges for the development of integrated models of surveillance. We discuss the relative strengths and limitations of different surveillance practices and studies as well as their contribution to epidemiologic assessment, forecasting, and public health decision-making.

Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 can provide protection against infection and severe COVID-19. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-existing immunity on the vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed 66 test-negative design (TND) studies that examined VE against infection or severe disease (hospitalization, ICU admission, or death) for primary vaccination series. Pooled VE among studies that included people with prior COVID-19 infection was lower against infection (pooled VE: 77%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 72%, 81%) and severe disease (pooled VE: 86%; 95% CI: 83%, 89%), compared with studies that excluded people with prior COVID-19 infection (pooled VE against infection: 87%; 95% CI: 85%, 89%; pooled VE against severe disease: 93%; 95% CI: 91%, 95%). There was a negative correlation between VE estimates against infection and severe disease, and the cumulative incidence of cases before the start of the study or incidence rates during the study period. We found clear empirical evidence that higher levels of pre-existing immunity were associated with lower VE estimates. Prior infections should be treated as both a confounder and effect modificatory when the policies target the whole population or stratified by infection history, respectively.

The potential benefits of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine selections for the Northern Hemisphere: a retrospective modeling study in the United States.

BACKGROUNDS: Antigenic similarity between vaccine viruses and circulating viruses is crucial for achieving high vaccine effectiveness against seasonal influenza. New non-egg-based vaccine production technologies could revise current vaccine formulation schedules. We aim to assess the potential benefit of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine virus selection decisions. METHODS: We identified seasons where season-dominant viruses presented increasing prevalence after vaccine formulation had been decided in February for the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to their antigenic discrepancy with vaccine viruses. Using a SEIR model of seasonal influenza in the United States, we evaluated the impact of updating vaccine decisions with more antigenically-similar vaccine viruses on the influenza burden in the United States. RESULTS: In 2014/15 and 2019/20, the season-dominant A(H3N2) subclade and B/Victoria clade respectively presented increasing prevalence after vaccine decisions were already made for the Northern Hemisphere. Our model showed that the updated A(H3N2) vaccine could have averted 5,000-65,000 influenza hospitalizations in the United States in 2014/15, whereas updating the B/Victoria vaccine component did not substantially change influenza burden in 2019/20 season. CONCLUSIONS: With rapid vaccine production, revising current timelines for vaccine selection could result in substantial epidemiological benefits, particularly when additional data could help improve the antigenic match between vaccine and circulating viruses.

Detection of Influenza in Managed Quarantine in Australia and the Estimated Risk of Importation.

BACKGROUND: Influenza circulated at historically low levels during 2020/2021 due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic travel restrictions. In Australia, international arrivals were required to undergo a 14-day hotel quarantine to limit new introduction of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We usedtesting data for travelers arriving on repatriation flights to Darwin, Australia, from 3 January 2021 to 11 October 2021 to identify importations of influenza virus into Australia. We used this information to estimate the risk of a case exiting quarantine while still infectious. Influenza-positive samples were sequenced, and cases were followed up to identify transmission clusters. Data on the number of cases and total passengers were used to infer the risk of influenza cases exiting quarantine while infectious. RESULTS: Despite very low circulation of influenza globally, 42 cases were identified among 15 026 returned travelers, of which 30 were A(H3N2), 2 were A(H1N1)pdm09, and 10 were B/Victoria. Virus sequencing data identified potential in-flight transmission, as well as independent infections prior to travel. Under the quarantine strategy in place at the time, the probability that these cases could initiate influenza outbreaks in Australia neared 0. However, this probability rose as quarantine requirements relaxed. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of influenza virus infections in repatriated travelers provided a source of influenza viruses otherwise unavailable and enabled development of the A(H3N2) vaccine seed viruses included in the 2022 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine. Failure to test quarantined returned travelers for influenza represents a missed opportunity for enhanced surveillance to better inform public health preparedness.

Associations between COVID-19 and hospitalisation with respiratory and non-respiratory conditions: a record linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the incidence of hospitalisation with selected respiratory and non-respiratory conditions in a largely SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-naïve population . DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Self-control case series; analysis of population-wide surveillance and administrative data for all laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases notified to the Victorian Department of Health (onset, 23 January 2020 - 31 May 2021; ie, prior to widespread vaccination rollout) and linked hospital admissions data (admission dates to 30 September 2021). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalisation of people with acute COVID-19; incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing incidence of hospitalisations with defined conditions (including cardiac, cerebrovascular, venous thrombo-embolic, coagulative, and renal disorders) from three days before to within 89 days of onset of COVID-19 with incidence during baseline period (60-365 days prior to COVID-19 onset). RESULTS: A total of 20 594 COVID-19 cases were notified; 2992 people (14.5%) were hospitalised with COVID-19. The incidence of hospitalisation within 89 days of onset of COVID-19 was higher than during the baseline period for several conditions, including myocarditis and pericarditis (IRR, 14.8; 95% CI, 3.2-68.3), thrombocytopenia (IRR, 7.4; 95% CI, 4.4-12.5), pulmonary embolism (IRR, 6.4; 95% CI, 3.6-11.4), acute myocardial infarction (IRR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.6-5.8), and cerebral infarction (IRR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.9). CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with higher incidence of hospitalisation with several respiratory and non-respiratory conditions. Our findings reinforce the value of COVID-19 mitigation measures such as vaccination, and awareness of these associations should assist the clinical management of people with histories of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The re-emergence of influenza following the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia, 2021 to 2022.

BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures, including travel restrictions, limited global circulation of influenza viruses. In Australia, travel bans for non-residents and quarantine requirements for returned travellers were eased in November 2021, providing pathways for influenza viruses to be re-introduced.AimWe aimed to describe the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the re-emergence of influenza in Victoria, Australia to inform public health interventions.MethodsFrom 1 November 2021 to 30 April 2022, we conducted an epidemiological study analysing case notification data from the Victorian Department of Health to describe case demographics, interviewed the first 200 cases to establish probable routes of virus reintroduction and examined phylogenetic and antigenic data to understand virus diversity and susceptibility to current vaccines.ResultsOverall, 1,598 notifications and 1,064 positive specimens were analysed. The majority of cases (61.4%) occurred in the 15-34 years age group. Interviews revealed a higher incidence of international travel exposure during the first month of case detections, and high levels of transmission in university residential colleges were associated with return to campus. Influenza A(H3N2) was the predominant subtype, with a single lineage predominating despite multiple importations.ConclusionEnhanced testing for respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic provided a more complete picture of influenza virus transmission compared with previous seasons. Returned international travellers were important drivers of influenza reemergence, as were young adults, a group whose role has previously been under-recognised in the establishment of seasonal influenza epidemics. Targeting interventions, including vaccination, to these groups could reduce future influenza transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection During Pregnancy and Associated Perinatal Health Outcomes: A National US Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Although severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been associated with increased risk of adverse perinatal health outcomes, few large-scale, community-based epidemiological studies have been conducted. METHODS: We conducted a national cohort study using deidentified administrative claims data for 78 283 pregnancies with estimated conception before 30 April 2020 and pregnancy end after 11 March 2020. We identified SARS-CoV-2 infections using diagnostic and laboratory testing data, and compared the risk of pregnancy outcomes using Cox proportional hazard models treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a time-varying exposure and adjusting for baseline covariates. RESULTS: Of the pregnancies, 2655 (3.4%) had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 during pregnancy was not associated with risk of miscarriage, antepartum hemorrhage, or stillbirth, but was associated with 2-3 fold higher risk of induced abortion (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-5.78), cesarean delivery (aHR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.71-2.31), clinician-initiated preterm birth (aHR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.93-4.30), spontaneous preterm birth (aHR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.37-2.34), and fetal growth restriction (aHR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.72-2.43). CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Prevention could have fetal health benefits.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 But Not A(H3N2) Virus Infection Induces Durable Seroprotection: Results From the Ha Nam Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which influenza recurrence depends upon waning immunity from prior infection is undefined. We used antibody titers of Ha-Nam cohort participants to estimate protection curves and decay trajectories. METHODS: Households (270) participated in influenza-like-illness (ILI) surveillance and provided blood at intervals spanning laboratory-confirmed virus transmission. Sera were tested in hemagglutination inhibition assay. Infection was defined as influenza virus-positive ILI and/or seroconversion. Median protective titers were estimated using scaled-logistic regression to model pretransmission titer against infection status in that season, limiting analysis to households with infection(s). Titers were modelled against month since infection using mixed-effects linear regression to estimate decay and when titers fell below protection thresholds. RESULTS: From December 2008-2012, 295 and 314 participants were infected with H1N1pdm09-like and A/Perth/16/09-like (H3N2Pe09) viruses, respectively. The proportion protected rose more steeply with titer for H1N1pdm09 than for H3N2Pe09, and estimated 50% protection titers were 19.6 and 37.3, respectively. Postinfection titers started higher against H3N2Pe09 but decayed more steeply than against H1N1pdm09. Seroprotection was estimated to be sustained against H1N1pdm09 but to wane by 8-months for H3N2Pe09. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates indicate that infection induces durable seroprotection against H1N1pdm09 but not H3N2Pe09, which could in part account for the younger age of A(H1N1) versus A(H3N2) cases.

Trend in Sensitivity of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Serology One Year After Mild and Asymptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Unpacking Potential Bias in Seroprevalence Studies.

A key aim of serosurveillance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been to estimate the prevalence of prior infection, by correcting crude seroprevalence against estimated test performance for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19. We show that poor generalizability of sensitivity estimates to some target populations may lead to substantial underestimation of case numbers.

Effectiveness of International Travel Controls for Delaying Local Outbreaks of COVID-19.

During the coronavirus disease pandemic, international travel controls have been widely adopted. To determine the effectiveness of these measures, we analyzed data from 165 countries and found that early implementation of international travel controls led to a mean delay of 5 weeks in the first epidemic peak of cases.

Likelihood of prior exposure to circulating influenza viruses resulting in cross-protection by CD8+ T cells against emergent H3N2v swine viruses infecting humans.

Outbreaks of influenza in swine can result in potential threats to human public health. A notable occurrence was the emergence of swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses in 2009. Since then, there have been several documented outbreaks of swine-origin influenza infecting humans in several countries. Sustained events have occurred when H1N1v, H1N2v, and H3N2v swine-origin viruses have infected humans visiting agricultural shows in the US. The predominant H3N2v viruses gained the matrix protein from the A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, with reported human-to-human transmission raising fears of another pandemic. Current vaccines do not induce secondary cell-mediated immune responses, which may provide cross-protection against novel influenza A subtypes, however, population susceptibility to infection with seasonal influenza is likely to be influenced by cross-reactive CD8+ T-cells directed towards immunogenic peptides derived from viral proteins. This study involved a retrospective review of historical influenza viruses circulating in human populations from 1918 to 2020 to identify evidence of prior circulation of H3N3v immunogenic CD8+ T-cells peptides found in the NP and M1 proteins. We found evidence of prior circulation of H3N2v NP and M1 immunogenic peptides in historical influenza viruses. This provides insight into the population context in which influenza viruses emerge and may help inform immunogenic peptide selection for cytotoxic T-cell lymphocytes (CTL)-inducing influenza vaccines. Next-generation vaccines capable of eliciting CD8+ T-cell-mediated cross-protective immunity may offer a long-term alternative strategy for influenza vaccines.

Estimation of Relative Vaccine Effectiveness in Influenza: A Systematic Review of Methodology.

BACKGROUND: When new vaccine components or platforms are developed, they will typically need to demonstrate noninferiority or superiority over existing products, resulting in the assessment of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE). This review aims to identify how rVE evaluation is being performed in studies of influenza to inform a more standardized approach. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science for studies reporting rVE comparing vaccine components, dose, or vaccination schedules. We screened titles, abstracts, full texts, and references to identify relevant articles. We extracted information on the study design, relative comparison made, and the definition and statistical approach used to estimate rVE in each study. RESULTS: We identified 63 articles assessing rVE in influenza virus. Studies compared multiple vaccine components (n = 38), two or more doses of the same vaccine (n = 17), or vaccination timing or history (n = 9). One study compared a range of vaccine components and doses. Nearly two-thirds of all studies controlled for age, and nearly half for comorbidities, region, and sex. Assessment of 12 studies presenting both absolute and relative effect estimates suggested proportionality in the effects, resulting in implications for the interpretation of rVE effects. CONCLUSIONS: Approaches to rVE evaluation in practice is highly varied, with improvements in reporting required in many cases. Extensive consideration of methodologic issues relating to rVE is needed, including the stability of estimates and the impact of confounding structure on the validity of rVE estimates.

Changes in antibiotic prescribing following COVID-19 restrictions: Lessons for post-pandemic antibiotic stewardship.

AIMS: Public health responses to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission have profoundly affected the epidemiology and management of other infections. We examined the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on antibiotic dispensing in Australia. METHODS: We used national claims data to investigate antibiotic dispensing trends from November 2015 to October 2020 and whether changes reflected reductions in primary care consultations. We used interrupted time series analysis to quantify changes in monthly antibiotic dispensing and face-to-face and telehealth GP consultations and examined changes by recipient age, pharmacy State and prescriber specialty. RESULTS: Over the study period, an estimated 19 921 370 people had 125 495 137 antibiotic dispensings, 71% prescribed by GPs. Following COVID-19 restrictions, we observed a sustained 36% (95% CI: 33-40%) reduction in antibiotic dispensings from April 2020. Antibiotics recommended for managing respiratory tract infections showed large reductions (range 51-69%), whereas those recommended for non-respiratory infections were unchanged. Dispensings prescribed by GPs decreased from 63.5 per 1000 population for April-October 2019 to 37.0 per 1000 for April-October 2020. Total GP consultation rates remained stable, but from April 2020, 31% of consultations were telehealth. CONCLUSION: In a setting with a low COVID-19 incidence, restrictions were associated with a substantial reduction in community dispensings of antibiotics primarily used to treat respiratory infections, coincident with reported reductions in respiratory viral infections. Our findings are informative for post-pandemic antimicrobial stewardship and highlight the potential to reduce inappropriate prescribing by GPs and specialists for respiratory viral infections.

Performance of diagnostic coding and laboratory testing results to measure COVID-19 during pregnancy and associations with pregnancy outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale evaluation of COVID-19 is likely to rely on the quality of ICD coding. However, little is known about the validity of ICD-coded COVID-19 diagnoses. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of diagnostic codes in detecting COVID-19 during pregnancy. METHODS: We used data from a national cohort of 78,283 individuals with a pregnancy ending between 11 March 2020 and 31 January 2021 in the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse (OLDW). OLDW is a longitudinal, real-world data asset with de-identified administrative claims and electronic health record data. We identified all services with an ICD-10-CM diagnostic code of U07.1 and all laboratory claims records for COVID-19 diagnostic testing. We compared ICD-coded diagnoses to testing results to estimate positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). To evaluate impact on risk estimation, we estimated risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes by source of exposure information. RESULTS: Of 78,283 pregnancies, 5644 had a laboratory test result for COVID-19. Testing was most common among older individuals, Hispanic individuals, those with higher socioeconomic status and those with a diagnosed medical condition or pregnancy complication; 52% of COVID-19 cases was identified through ICD-coded diagnosis alone, 19% from laboratory test results alone and 29% from both sources. Agreement between ICD-coded diagnosis and laboratory testing records was high 91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90, 92). However, the PPV of ICD-code diagnosis was low (36%; 95% CI 33, 39). We observed up to a 50% difference in risk estimates of adverse pregnancy outcomes when exposure was based on laboratory testing results or diagnostic coding alone. CONCLUSIONS: More than one-in-five COVID-19 cases would be missed by using ICD-coded diagnoses alone to identify COVID-19 during pregnancy. Epidemiological studies exclusively relying on diagnostic coding or laboratory testing results are likely to be affected by exposure misclassification. Research and surveillance should draw upon multiple sources of COVID-19 diagnostic information.

Epidemiology of repeat influenza infection in Queensland, Australia, 2005-2017.

Natural infection with the influenza virus is believed to generate cross-protective immunity across both types and subtypes. However, less is known about the persistence of this immunity and thus the susceptibility of individuals to repeat infection. We used 13 years (2005-2017) of surveillance data from Queensland, Australia, to describe the incidence and distribution of repeat influenza infections. Consecutive infections that occurred within 14 days of prior infection were considered a mixed infection; those that occurred more than 14 days later were considered separate (repeat) infections. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to investigate the probability of reinfection over time and the Prentice, Williams and Peterson extension of the Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of age and gender with reinfection. Among the 188 392 notifications received during 2005-2017, 6165 were consecutively notified for the same individual (3.3% of notifications), and 2958 were mixed infections (1.6%). Overall, the probability of reinfection was low: the cumulative incidence was <1% after one year, 4.6% after five years, and 9.6% after ten years. The majority of consecutive infections were the result of two type A infections (43%) and were most common among females (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.21), children aged less than 5 years (relative to adults aged 18-64 years aHR: 1.58, 95% CI 1.47-1.70) and older adults aged at least 65 years (aHR: 1.35; 95% CI 1.24-1.47). Our study suggests consecutive infections are possible but rare. These findings have implications for our understanding of population immunity to influenza.

Effect of Temperature and Rainfall on Sporadic Salmonellosis Notifications in Melbourne, Australia 2000-2019: A Time-Series Analysis.

Weather can impact infectious disease transmission, particularly for heat-sensitive pathogens, such as Salmonella. We conducted an ecological time-series analysis to estimate short-term associations between nonoutbreak-related notifications of Salmonella and weather conditions-temperature and rainfall-in Melbourne, Australia from 2000 to 2019. Distributed lag nonlinear models were created to analyze weather-salmonellosis associations and potential lag times on a weekly time scale, controlling for seasonality and long-term trends. Warmer temperatures were associated with increased risk of notification. Effects were temporally lagged, with the highest associations observed for warm temperatures 2-6 (greatest at 4) weeks before notification. The overall estimated relative risk of salmonellosis increased twofold at 33°C compared to the average weekly temperature (20.35°C) for the 8-week period preceding the disease notification. For Salmonella Typhimurium alone, this occurred at temperatures over 32°C. There were no statistically significant associations with rainfall and notification rates in any of the analyses performed. This study demonstrates the short-term influences of warm temperatures on Salmonella infections in Melbourne over a 20-year period. Salmonelloses are already the second most notified gastrointestinal diseases in Victoria, and these findings suggest that notifications may increase with increasing temperatures. This evidence contributes to previous findings that indicate concerns for public health with continued warm weather.

A Randomized Trial of Two 2-Dose Influenza Vaccination Strategies for Patients Following Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Seroprotection and seroconversion rates are not well understood for 2-dose inactivated influenza vaccination (IIV) schedules in autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (autoHCT) patients. METHODS: A randomized, single-blind, controlled trial of IIV in autoHCT patients in their first year post-transplant was conducted. Patients were randomized 1:1 to high-dose (HD) IIV followed by standard dose (SD) vaccine (HD-SD arm) or 2 SD vaccines (SD-SD arm) 4 weeks apart. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay for IIV strains was performed at baseline, 1, 2, and 6 months post-first dose. Evaluable primary outcomes were seroprotection (HI titer ≥40) and seroconversion (4-fold titer increase) rates and secondary outcomes were geometric mean titers (GMTs), GMT ratios (GMRs), adverse events, influenza-like illness (ILI), and laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) rates and factors associated with seroconversion. RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients were enrolled (34/arm) with median age of 61.5 years, majority male (68%) with myeloma (68%). Median time from autoHCT to vaccination was 2.3 months. For HD-SD and SD-SD arms, percentages of patients achieving seroprotection were 75.8% and 79.4% for H1N1, 84.9% and 88.2% for H3N2 (all P > .05), and 78.8% and 97.1% for influenza-B/Yamagata (P = .03), respectively. Seroconversion rates, GMTs and GMRs, and number of ILI or LCIs were not significantly different between arms. Adverse event rates were similar. Receipt of concurrent cancer therapy was independently associated with higher odds of seroconversion (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.2-14.9; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: High seroprotection and seroconversion rates against all influenza strains can be achieved with vaccination as early as 2 months post-autoHCT with either 2-dose vaccine schedules. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12619000617167.

The Causal Interpretation of "Overall Vaccine Effectiveness" in Test-Negative Studies.

Test-negative studies are commonly used to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). In a typical study, an "overall VE" estimate based on data from the entire sample may be reported. However, there may be heterogeneity in VE, particularly by age. Therefore, in this article we discuss the potential for a weighted average of age-specific VE estimates to provide a more meaningful measure of overall VE. We illustrate this perspective first using simulations to evaluate how overall VE would be biased when certain age groups are overrepresented. We found that unweighted overall VE estimates tended to be higher than weighted VE estimates when children were overrepresented and lower when elderly persons were overrepresented. Then we extracted published estimates from the US Flu VE network, in which children are overrepresented, and some discrepancy between unweighted and weighted overall VE was observed. Differences in weighted versus unweighted overall VE estimates could translate to substantial differences in the interpretation of individual risk reduction among vaccinated persons and in the total averted disease burden at the population level. Weighting of overall estimates should be considered in VE studies in the future.