Sparse learning and stability selection for predicting MCI to AD conversion using baseline ADNI data.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) are at high risk of progression to Alzheimer's dementia. Identifying MCI individuals with high likelihood of conversion to dementia and the associated biosignatures has recently received increasing attention in AD research. Different biosignatures for AD (neuroimaging, demographic, genetic and cognitive measures) may contain complementary information for diagnosis and prognosis of AD. METHODS: We have conducted a comprehensive study using a large number of samples from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to test the power of integrating various baseline data for predicting the conversion from MCI to probable AD and identifying a small subset of biosignatures for the prediction and assess the relative importance of different modalities in predicting MCI to AD conversion. We have employed sparse logistic regression with stability selection for the integration and selection of potential predictors. Our study differs from many of the other ones in three important respects: (1) we use a large cohort of MCI samples that are unbiased with respect to age or education status between case and controls (2) we integrate and test various types of baseline data available in ADNI including MRI, demographic, genetic and cognitive measures and (3) we apply sparse logistic regression with stability selection to ADNI data for robust feature selection. RESULTS: We have used 319 MCI subjects from ADNI that had MRI measurements at the baseline and passed quality control, including 177 MCI Non-converters and 142 MCI Converters. Conversion was considered over the course of a 4-year follow-up period. A combination of 15 features (predictors) including those from MRI scans, APOE genotyping, and cognitive measures achieves the best prediction with an AUC score of 0.8587. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the power of integrating various baseline data for prediction of the conversion from MCI to probable AD. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of stability selection for feature selection in the context of sparse logistic regression.

Nine Principles of Semantic Harmonization.

Medical data is routinely collected, stored and recorded across different institutions and in a range of different formats. Semantic harmonization is the process of collating this data into a singular consistent logical view, with many approaches to harmonizing both possible and valid. The broad scope of possibilities for undertaking semantic harmonization do lead however to the development of bespoke and ad-hoc systems; this is particularly the case when it comes to cohort data, the format of which is often specific to a cohort's area of focus. Guided by work we have undertaken in developing the 'EMIF Knowledge Object Library', a semantic harmonization framework underpinning the collation of pan-European Alzheimer's cohort data, we have developed a set of nine generic guiding principles for developing semantic harmonization frameworks, the application of which will establish a solid base for constructing similar frameworks.

Outlier mining in high throughput screening experiments.

A data mining procedure for the rapid scoring of high-throughput screening (HTS) compounds is presented. The method is particularly useful for monitoring the quality of HTS data and tracking outliers in automated pharmaceutical or agrochemical screening, thus providing more complete and thorough structure-activity relationship (SAR) information. The method is based on the utilization of the assumed relationship between the structure of the screened compounds and the biological activity on a given screen expressed on a binary scale. By means of a data mining method, a SAR description of the data is developed that assigns probabilities of being a hit to each compound of the screen. Then, an inconsistency score expressing the degree of deviation between the adequacy of the SAR description and the actual biological activity is computed. The inconsistency score enables the identification of potential outliers that can be primed for validation experiments. The approach is particularly useful for detecting false-negative outliers and for identifying SAR-compliant hit/nonhit borderline compounds, both of which are classes of compounds that can contribute substantially to the development and understanding of robust SARs. In a first implementation of the method, one- and two-dimensional descriptors are used for encoding molecular structure information and logistic regression for calculating hits/nonhits probability scores. The approach was validated on three data sets, the first one from a publicly available screening data set and the second and third from in-house HTS screening campaigns. Because of its simplicity, robustness, and accuracy, the procedure is suitable for automation.

A novel subject synchronization clinical trial design for Alzheimer's disease.

One of the challenges in developing a viable therapy for Alzheimer's disease has been demonstrating efficacy within a clinical trial. Using this as motivation, we sought to re-examine conventional clinical trial practices in order to determine whether efficacy can be better shown through alternative trial designs and novel analysis methods. In this work, we hypothesize that the confounding factors which hamper the ability to discern a treatment signal are the variability in observations as well as the insidious nature of the disease. We demonstrate that a two-phase trial design in which drug dosing is administered after a certain level of disease severity has been reached, coupled with a method to account more accurately for the progression of the disease, may allow us to compensate for these factors, and thus enable us to make treatment effects more apparent. Utilizing data from two previously failed trials which involved the evaluation of galantamine for indication in mild cognitive impairment, we were able to demonstrate that a clear treatment effect can be realized through both visual and statistical means, and propose that future trials may be more likely to show success if similar methods are utilized.

Quantifying the pathophysiological timeline of Alzheimer's disease.

Hypothetical models of AD progression typically relate clinical stages of AD to sequential changes in CSF biomarkers, imaging, and cognition. However, quantifying the continuous trajectories proposed by these models over time is difficult because of the difficulty in relating the dynamics of different biomarkers during a clinical trial that is significantly shorter than the duration of the disease. We seek to show that through proper synchronization, it is possible to de-convolve these trends and quantify the periods of time associated with different pathophysiological changes associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD). We developed a model that replicated the observed progression of ADAS-Cog 13 scores and used this as a more precise estimate of disease-duration and thus pathologic stage. We then synchronized cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and imaging biomarkers according to our new disease timeline. By de-convolving disease progression via ADAS-Cog 13, we were able to confirm the predictions of previous hypothetical models of disease progression as well as establish concrete timelines for different pathobiological events. Specifically, our work supports a sequential pattern of biomarker changes in AD in which reduction in CSF Aß(42) and brain atrophy precede the increases in CSF tau and phospho-tau.