The potential benefits of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine selections for the Northern Hemisphere: a retrospective modeling study in the United States.

BACKGROUNDS: Antigenic similarity between vaccine viruses and circulating viruses is crucial for achieving high vaccine effectiveness against seasonal influenza. New non-egg-based vaccine production technologies could revise current vaccine formulation schedules. We aim to assess the potential benefit of delaying seasonal influenza vaccine virus selection decisions. METHODS: We identified seasons where season-dominant viruses presented increasing prevalence after vaccine formulation had been decided in February for the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to their antigenic discrepancy with vaccine viruses. Using a SEIR model of seasonal influenza in the United States, we evaluated the impact of updating vaccine decisions with more antigenically-similar vaccine viruses on the influenza burden in the United States. RESULTS: In 2014/15 and 2019/20, the season-dominant A(H3N2) subclade and B/Victoria clade respectively presented increasing prevalence after vaccine decisions were already made for the Northern Hemisphere. Our model showed that the updated A(H3N2) vaccine could have averted 5,000-65,000 influenza hospitalizations in the United States in 2014/15, whereas updating the B/Victoria vaccine component did not substantially change influenza burden in 2019/20 season. CONCLUSIONS: With rapid vaccine production, revising current timelines for vaccine selection could result in substantial epidemiological benefits, particularly when additional data could help improve the antigenic match between vaccine and circulating viruses.

Muscle insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes with coronary artery disease.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) is substantially increased in type 1 diabetes and it has been postulated that insulin resistance may contribute to this risk. The current study measured insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes with vs without CAD and with a focus upon skeletal muscle, to test the hypothesis that insulin resistance is more severe in participants who have type 1 diabetes and CAD. Additionally, in type 1 diabetes, we examined the hypothesis that insulin resistance is more severe in soleus (an oxidative type muscle) vs tibialis anterior (a more glycolytic type of muscle). METHODS: Insulin resistance was measured in participants with type 1 diabetes with (n = 9, CAD+) and without CAD (n = 10, CAD-) using euglycaemic insulin infusions combined with positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake into soleus and tibialis anterior skeletal muscles. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score was quantified by electron beam tomography. RESULTS: CAD+ participants with type 1 diabetes had a >100-fold higher CAC score than did CAD- participants with type 1 diabetes but groups did not differ in HbA1c or insulin dose. During clamp studies, CAD+ and CAD- groups had similar glucose disposal but were insulin resistant compared with historical non-diabetic participants (n = 13). FDG uptake by soleus muscle was similarly reduced, overall, in individuals with type 1 diabetes with or without CAD compared with non-diabetic individuals. However, FDG uptake by tibialis anterior muscle was not reduced in CAD- participants with type 1 diabetes while in CAD+ participants with type 1 diabetes it was 75% greater (p < 0.01). Across all participants with type 1 diabetes, FDG uptake by tibialis anterior muscle correlated positively with CAC severity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study confirms that systemic and skeletal muscle-specific insulin resistance is seen in type 1 diabetes but found that it does not appear to be more severe in the presence of CAD. There were, however, sharp differences between soleus and tibialis anterior muscles in type 1 diabetes: while insulin resistance was clearly manifest in soleus muscle, and was of equal severity in CAD+ and CAD- participants, tibialis anterior did not suggest insulin resistance in participants with type 1 diabetes, as FDG uptake by tibialis anterior correlated positively with CAC severity and was significantly increased in participants with type 1 diabetes and clinical CAD. Graphical abstract.

Organo-Inorganic Hybrid Intumescent Fire Retardant Coatings for Thermoplastics Based on Poly(Vinylphosphonic Acid).

Thin coatings of crosslinked poly(vinylphosphonic acid), PVPA, display good adhesion and excellent intumescent, fire-retardant barrier properties when applied to the surfaces of a typical thermoplastic, such as poly(methyl methacrylate), but perform relatively poorly in water-soak tests. To strengthen and further improve the barrier properties of the intumescent char and to make the coating more hydrophobic, PVPA has been complexed with various inorganic and organic species. The chars formed from coatings of some of these hybrid materials are less friable than chars from coatings synthesized from crosslinked PVPA alone, and show higher levels of water tolerance with no significant reduction in dry adhesion to the substrate.

Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden.

Introduction: Current influenza vaccines have limited effectiveness. COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology have demonstrated very high efficacy, suggesting that mRNA vaccines could be more effective for influenza. Several such influenza vaccines are in development. FRED, an agent-based modeling platform, was used to estimate the impact of more effective influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza burden. Methods: Simulations were performed using an agent-based model of influenza that included varying levels of vaccination efficacy (40-95 % effective). In some simulations, level of infectiousness and/or length of infectious period in agents with breakthrough infections was also decreased. Impact of increased and decreased levels of vaccine uptake were also modeled. Outcomes included number of symptomatic influenza cases estimated for the US. Results: Highly effective vaccines significantly reduced estimated influenza cases in the model. When vaccine efficacy was increased from 40 % to a maximum of 95 %, estimated influenza cases in the US decreased by 43 % to > 99 %. The base simulation (40 % efficacy) resulted in âˆ¼ 28 million total yearly cases in the US, while the most effective vaccine modeled (95 % efficacy) decreased estimated cases to âˆ¼ 22,000. Discussion: Highly effective vaccines could dramatically reduce influenza burden. Model estimates suggest that even modest increases in vaccine efficacy could dramatically reduce seasonal influenza disease burden.

Factors associated with humoral immune response in older adults who received egg-free influenza vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Immune responses to influenza vaccination tend to be lower among older, frequently vaccinated adults. Use of egg-free influenza vaccines is increasing, but limited data exist on factors associated with their immunogenicity in older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults ≥ 56 years of age were enrolled in a prospective, observational study of immunogenicity of 2018-2019 influenza vaccine. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titers were measured pre-vaccination (Day 0) and four weeks after vaccination (Day 28) to calculate geometric mean titers, seropositivity (HAI titers ≥ 1:40), seroconversion (fourfold rise in HAI titer with post-vaccination titer ≥ 1:40) and geometric mean fold rise (GMFR). Linear regression models assessed the association of predictors of GMFR for each vaccine antigen. RESULTS: Among 91 participants who received egg-free influenza vaccines, 84 (92.3 %) received quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4, Flublok, Sanofi Pasteur), and 7 (7.7 %) received quadrivalent cell culture-based influenza vaccine (ccIIV4, Flucelvax, Seqirus). Pre-vaccination seropositivity was 52.8 % for A(H1N1), 94.5 % for A(H3N2), 61.5 % for B/Colorado and 48.4 % for B/Phuket. Seroconversion by antigen ranged from 16.5 % for A(H1N1) and B/Colorado to 37.4 % for A(H3N2); 40 participants failed to seroconvert to any antigen. Factors independently associated with higher GMFR in multivariable models included lower pre-vaccination HAI antibody titer for A(H1N1), B/Colorado and B/Phuket, and younger age for A(H1N1). CONCLUSION: Overall pre-vaccination seropositivity was high and just over half of the cohort seroconverted to ≥ 1 vaccine antigen. Antibody responses were highest among participants with lower pre-vaccination titers. Among older adults with high pre-existing antibody titers, approaches to improve immune responses are needed.

A Randomized Controlled Trial to Compare Immunogenicity to Cell-Based Versus Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccines in Children.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have focused on the immune response to more recent influenza vaccine formulations such as cell-cultured inactivated influenza vaccine (ccIIV4) or live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) in older children and young adults, or differences in immunoglobulin response using newer antibody landscape technology. METHODS: Participants ages 4-21 were randomized to receive ccIIV4 (n = 112) or LAIV4 (n = 118). A novel high-throughput multiplex influenza antibody detection assay was used to provide detailed IgG, IgA, and IgM antibody isotypes, along with hemagglutination inhibition levels (HAI), measured pre- and 28 days post-vaccination. RESULTS: The HAI and immunoglobulin isotype response to ccIIV4 was greater than LAIV4, with significant increases in IgG but not IgA or IgM. The youngest participants had the highest LAIV4 response. Prior LAIV4 vaccination was associated with a higher response to current season ccIIV4. Cross-reactive A/Delaware/55/2019(H1N1)pdm09 antibodies were present pre-vaccination and increased in response to ccIIV4, but not LAIV4. Immunoglobulin assays strongly correlated with and confirmed the findings of HAI titers to measure immune response. CONCLUSIONS: Age and prior season vaccination may play a role in the immune response in children and young adults to ccIIV4 and LAIV4. While immunoglobulin isotypes provide high-level antigen-specific information, HAI titers alone can provide a meaningful representation of day 28 post-vaccination response. CLINICAL TRIALS NO: NCT03982069.

Can a Two-Dose Influenza Vaccine Regimen Better Protect Older Adults? An Agent-Based Modeling Study.

Older adults (age ≥ 65) are at high risk of influenza morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated the impact of a hypothetical two-dose influenza vaccine regimen per season to reduce symptomatic flu cases by providing preseason (first dose) and mid-season (second dose) protection to offset waning vaccine effectiveness (VE). The Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based modeling platform, was used to compare typical one-dose vaccination to a two-dose vaccination strategy. Primary models incorporated waning VE of 10% per month and varied influenza season timing (December through March) to estimate cases and hospitalizations in older adults. Additional scenarios modeled reductions in uptake and VE of the second dose, and overall waning. In seasons with later peaks, two vaccine doses had the largest potential to reduce cases (14.4% with February peak, 18.7% with March peak) and hospitalizations (13.1% with February peak, 16.8% with March peak). Reductions in cases and hospitalizations still resulted but decreased when 30% of individuals failed to receive a second dose, second dose VE was reduced, or overall waning was reduced to 7% per month. Agent-based modeling indicates that two influenza vaccine doses could decrease cases and hospitalizations in older individuals. The highest impact occurred in the more frequently observed late-peak seasons. The beneficial impact of the two-dose regimen persisted despite model scenarios of reduced uptake of the second dose, decreased VE of the second dose, or overall VE waning.

A randomized controlled trial of antibody response to 2019-20 cell-based inactivated and egg-based live attenuated influenza vaccines in children and young adults.

BACKGROUND: Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers to the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are typically lower than its counterpart egg-based inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV). Similar comparisons have not been made between LAIV4 and the 4-strain, cell-culture inactivated influenza vaccine (ccIIV4). We compared healthy children's and young adults' HAI titers against the 2019-2020 LAIV4 and ccIIV4. METHODS: Participants aged 4-21 years were randomized 1:1 to receive ccIIV4 (n = 100) or LAIV4 (n = 98). Blood was drawn prevaccination and on day 28 (21-35) post vaccination. HAI assays against egg-grown A/H1N1, A/H3N2, both vaccine B strains and cell-grown A/H3N2 antigens were conducted. Primary outcomes were geometric mean titers (GMT) and geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) in titers. RESULTS: GMTs to A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and B/Victoria increased following both ccIIV and LAIV and to B/Yamagata following ccIIV (p < 0.05). The GMFR range was 2.4-3.0 times higher for ccIIV4 than for LAIV4 (p < 0.001). Within vaccine types, egg-grown A/H3N2 GMTs were higher (p < 0.05) than cell-grown GMTs [ccIIV4 day 28: egg = 205 (95% CI: 178-237); cell = 136 (95% CI:113-165); LAIV4 day 28: egg = 96 (95% CI: 83-112); cell = 63 (95% CI: 58-74)]. The GMFR to A/H3N2 cell-grown and egg-grown antigens were similar. Pre-vaccination titers inversely predicted GMFR. CONCLUSION: The HAI response to ccIIV4 was greater than LAIV4 in this study of mostly older children, and day 0 HAI titers inversely predicted GMFR for both vaccines. Lower prevaccination titers were associated with greater GMFR in both vaccine groups.

Persistent C-peptide levels and microvascular complications in childhood onset type 1 diabetes of long duration.

AIMS: The aim was to determine if persistent c-peptide in long duration childhood onset (<17 years) type 1 diabetes (T1D) related to microvascular complications. METHODS: Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) participants (n = 185) had serum c-peptide levels measured by Mercodia ultra-sensitive ELISA at the 25-year follow-up exam. Microvascular complications between those with and without detectable c-peptide were compared. RESULTS: Eighteen (9.7%) participants had detectable median c-peptide levels of 3.8 (2.6, 12.2) pmol/L and did not differ from those without detectable levels. No differences in microalbuminuria, confirmed distal symmetric polyneuropathy, renal failure, or between those with one or more complications were found between the two groups. Proliferative retinopathy (PR) was marginally lower in those with detectable c-peptide (33.3% vs 55.1%, p = 0.08). However, those with c-peptide were somewhat less likely to have fasted for a full 8-h (66.7% vs. 84.9%, p = 0.09). Excluding those not fully fasted, PR no longer approached significance but macroalbuminuria became marginally lower in those with detectable levels (23.4% vs 0%, p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of c-peptide in T1D patients of long duration were detected but were not strongly related to microvascular complications.

Celiac Autoimmunity Is Associated With Lower Blood Pressure and Renal Risk in Type 1 Diabetes.

Context: Though the long-term consequences of celiac disease (CD) in type 1 diabetes are unclear, CD has been associated with increased prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) independent of type 1 diabetes. Objective: We evaluated whether celiac autoimmunity is related to the cumulative incidence of microalbuminuria [albumin excretion rate (AER) 20 to 200 µg/min], macroalbuminuria (AER >200 µg/min), and ESRD. Design, Patients, and Methods: In the prospective follow-up of the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes, 618 participants were screened for tissue transglutaminase (tTG) antibodies with a clinical assay. Nephropathy outcomes were determined at 25 years of diabetes duration. Results: Overall, the 33 subjects (5.3%) with strongly positive tTG levels (≥3 times the upper limit of normal) or a reported clinical history of CD had lower baseline blood pressure and lipid values. At 25 years of diabetes duration, a lower cumulative incidence of macroalbuminuria in strongly positive subjects compared with those with negative serology (3.6% vs 30.0%; P = 0.003) remained significant after adjustment for age, HbA1c, lipid measures, and blood pressure (adjusted P = 0.004). No considerable differences between these subjects and tTG-negative groups were found for microalbuminuria (40.0% vs 57.1%) or ESRD (0 vs 4.1%). Conclusions: These findings show that strongly positive celiac autoimmunity status in individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes is associated with lower baseline blood pressure and cholesterol measurements as well as lower macroalbuminuria risk after 25 years of type 1 diabetes duration with no increase in the risk of microalbuminuria or ESRD.

Weight loss-induced plasticity of glucose transport and phosphorylation in the insulin resistance of obesity and type 2 diabetes.

We tested the hypothesis that weight loss alleviates insulin resistance in skeletal muscle within the proximal steps of glucose metabolism, namely substrate delivery, glucose transport, and glucose phosphorylation. In obese subjects with and without type 2 diabetes, in vivo skeletal muscle assessments were obtained with dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) imaging performed during euglycemic clamps at moderate hyperinsulinemia (40 mU x min(-1) x m(-2)), using [(15)O]H(2)O and [(18)F]fluoro-deoxyglucose ([(18)F]FDG) to quantify tissue perfusion and glucose metabolism. Dynamic [(18)F]FDG PET data were analyzed using both a novel muscle-specific compartmental model and a compartmental model originally developed for the brain and often used for [(18)F]FDG muscle image quantification. Weight loss in obese subjects with (n = 9) and without (n = 9) type 2 diabetes over a 4-month intervention was substantial (14 +/- 2 kg, P < 0.05). Muscle insulin resistance, assessed by insulin-stimulated [(18)F]FDG uptake, decreased threefold in diabetic subjects and twofold in nondiabetic subjects (P < 0.001). Kinetic parameters for [(18)F]FDG transport and phosphorylation improved substantially in both groups, whereas tissue blood flow did not change. In particular, clinically significant weight loss fully corrected insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes at the step of glucose phosphorylation and largely, but incompletely, corrected insulin resistance at the glucose transport step.

Glucose transport and phosphorylation in skeletal muscle in obesity: insight from a muscle-specific positron emission tomography model.

A controversial area in understanding the contribution of obesity to skeletal muscle insulin resistance is the distribution of control of glucose metabolism across proximal steps of glucose delivery, trans-membrane transport, and intracellular trapping via phosphorylation. Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of skeletal muscle [(18)F]2-deoxy-2-D-glucose ((18)F-FDG) uptake provides an in vivo method for assessment of these steps in humans. In the current study we have examined the application of a four-compartment skeletal muscle-specific model for assessment of (18)F-FDG metabolism that takes interstitial (18)F-FDG kinetics into account and compared this to the classic three-compartment model in lean and obese volunteers. We assessed the effects of insulin infusions at three rates (0, 40, and 120 mU/m(2).min). In comparison with the classic model, the skeletal muscle-specific model reveals more clearly definable effects of insulin on transmembrane glucose transport and an impairment of this response in obesity. Compared with the classic model for assessment of (18)F-FDG metabolism, both the skeletal muscle-specific and the classic model indicate that, with respect to distribution of control, glucose phosphorylation has an important effect at low to moderate levels of insulin stimulation in both lean and obese subjects.

Low central nervous system serotonergic responsivity is associated with the metabolic syndrome and physical inactivity.

The metabolic syndrome, recognized by the co-occurrence of general or abdominal obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and dysglycemia, appears to involve disturbances in metabolism, autonomic function, and health-related behaviors. However, physiological processes linking the components of the metabolic syndrome remain obscure. The current study examined associations of central nervous system serotonergic function with each metabolic syndrome risk variable, the metabolic syndrome, and physical activity. The subjects were 270 adult volunteers who participated in a study of cardiovascular disease risk factors and neurobehavioral functioning. Central serotonergic responsivity was indexed as the prolactin (PRL) response evoked by the serotonin-releasing agent, fenfluramine. Across the sample, low PRL response was associated with greater body mass index, higher concentrations of triglycerides, glucose, and insulin, higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure, greater insulin resistance, and less physical activity (P < 0.03-0.001). There also existed an inverse linear relationship between PRL response and the number of metabolic syndrome risk factors individuals possessed (P for trend = 0.002). Finally, a 1 SD decline in PRL response was associated with an odds ratio for the metabolic syndrome of 2.05 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.83; P = 0.002) and 5.70 (95% confidence interval, 1.69-19.25; P = 0.005), according to the definitions of the National Cholesterol Education Program and the World Health Organization, respectively. These findings reveal a heretofore unrecognized association between reduced central serotonergic responsivity and the metabolic syndrome.

Subclinical atherosclerosis and estimated glucose disposal rate as predictors of mortality in type 1 diabetes.

PURPOSE: To investigate the usefulness of ischemic resting electrocardiogram (ECG), ankle brachial index (ABI) <0.8, ankle brachial difference (ABD) > or = 75 mm Hg (a marker of peripheral medial arterial wall calcification), and estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) (a marker for insulin resistance) for predicting mortality risk in the context of standard risk factors. METHODS: Data are from participants in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study of 658 subjects with childhood onset Type 1 diabetes of mean age 28 years (range 8-48) and duration of diabetes 19 years (range 7-37) at baseline. Deaths were confirmed by death certificates. RESULTS: There were 68 deaths from all causes during 10 years follow-up. In univariate analysis, the mortality hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with ischemic ECG (6.7, 3.7-12.1), the lowest quintile of eGDR (i.e., the most insulin resistant) (6.7, 4.1-10.9), ABI <0.8 (2.5, 1.1-5.9), and ABD > or = 75 mm Hg (6.7) were only marginally less than those conveyed by pre-existing coronary artery disease (8.4, 4.7-15.2) or overt nephropathy (7.6, 4.5-12.9). Ischemic ECG and eGDR were independent mortality predictors, together with duration of diabetes, coronary artery disease, overt nephropathy, nonhigh density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking history. If serum creatinine was available, it entered, and glycosylated hemoglobin replaced eGDR. CONCLUSIONS: Estimated GDR and ECG ischemia are strong predictors of mortality in type 1 diabetes and may be useful in the identification of those at risk.