Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions.

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a "data-forward" approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

Controls of primary production in two phytoplankton blooms in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current has a high potential for primary production and carbon sequestration through the biological pump. In the current study, two large-scale blooms observed in 2012 during a cruise with R.V. Polarstern were investigated with respect to phytoplankton standing stocks, primary productivity and nutrient budgets. While net primary productivity was similar in both blooms, chlorophyll a -specific photosynthesis was more efficient in the bloom closer to the island of South Georgia (39 °W, 50 °S) compared to the open ocean bloom further east (12 °W, 51 °S). We did not find evidence for light being the driver of bloom dynamics as chlorophyll standing stocks up to 165 mg m-2 developed despite mixed layers as deep as 90 m. Since the two bloom regions differ in their distance to shelf areas, potential sources of iron vary. Nutrient (nitrate, phosphate, silicate) deficits were similar in both areas despite different bloom ages, but their ratios indicated more pronounced iron limitation at 12 °W compared to 39 °W. While primarily the supply of iron and not the availability of light seemed to control onset and duration of the blooms, higher grazing pressure could have exerted a stronger control toward the declining phase of the blooms.

Seasonally different carbon flux changes in the Southern Ocean in response to the southern annular mode.

Stratospheric ozone depletion and emission of greenhouse gases lead to a trend of the southern annular mode (SAM) toward its high-index polarity. The positive phase of the SAM is characterized by stronger than usual westerly winds that induce changes in the physical carbon transport. Changes in the natural carbon budget of the upper 100 m of the Southern Ocean in response to a positive SAM phase are explored with a coupled ecosystem-general circulation model and regression analysis. Previously overlooked processes that are important for the upper ocean carbon budget during a positive SAM period are identified, namely, export production and downward transport of carbon north of the polar front (PF) as large as the upwelling in the south. The limiting micronutrient iron is brought into the surface layer by upwelling and stimulates phytoplankton growth and export production but only in summer. This leads to a drawdown of carbon and less summertime outgassing (or more uptake) of natural CO2. In winter, biological mechanisms are inactive, and the surface ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere by releasing CO2. In the annual mean, the upper ocean region south of the PF loses more carbon by additional export production than by the release of CO2 into the atmosphere, highlighting the role of the biological carbon pump in response to a positive SAM event.

Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean.

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

Ballasting by cryogenic gypsum enhances carbon export in a Phaeocystis under-ice bloom.

Mineral ballasting enhances carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean; however, little is known about the role of this process in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Here, we propose gypsum ballasting as a new mechanism that likely facilitated enhanced vertical carbon export from an under-ice phytoplankton bloom dominated by the haptophyte Phaeocystis. In the spring 2015 abundant gypsum crystals embedded in Phaeocystis aggregates were collected throughout the water column and on the sea floor at a depth below 2 km. Model predictions supported by isotopic signatures indicate that 2.7 g m-2 gypsum crystals were formed in sea ice at temperatures below -6.5 °C and released into the water column during sea ice melting. Our finding indicates that sea ice derived (cryogenic) gypsum is stable enough to survive export to the deep ocean and serves as an effective ballast mineral. Our findings also suggest a potentially important and previously unknown role of Phaeocystis in deep carbon export due to cryogenic gypsum ballasting. The rapidly changing Arctic sea ice regime might favour this gypsum gravity chute with potential consequences for carbon export and food partitioning between pelagic and benthic ecosystems.

Model of the carbon concentrating mechanism in chloroplasts of eukaryotic algae.

A generic chloroplast-based model for the carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM) in eukaryotic algae is presented. The fine structure of chloroplasts is represented by separate compartments: marginal and bulk stroma, pyrenoid, girdle lamella, bulk thylakoids, and central lamella traversing the pyrenoid. The roles of the individual structural elements of the chloroplast with respect to the CCM and the effect of carbonic anhydrase activity in various compartments are analysed. Hypothetical HCO(-)(3)transport into the acidic thylakoid lumen is adjusted by imposing an optimization principle: a given [CO(2)] at the site of RuBisCO is achieved with minimum energy costs for the CCM. Our model is highly efficient in terms of saturation of RuBisCO carboxylase activity and the affinity of the chloroplast for CO(2), if either a girdle lamella or a pyrenoid is present. The highest efficiency is achieved with a pyrenoid. A eukaryotic CCM is not necessarily associated with accumulation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as in cyanobacteria. Chloroplasts are categorized into four types corresponding to morphological characteristics of all major algal classes with regard to the presence of pyrenoids, girdle lamellae, and the distribution of CA activity.