Body mass index, triglyceride-glucose index, and prostate cancer death: a mediation analysis in eight European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance is a hypothesised biological mechanism linking obesity with prostate cancer (PCa) death. Data in support of this hypothesis is limited. METHODS: We included 259,884 men from eight European cohorts, with 11,760 incident PCa's and 1784 PCa deaths during follow-up. We used the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index as indicator of insulin resistance. We analysed PCa cases with follow-up from PCa diagnosis, and the full cohort with follow-up from the baseline cancer-free state, thus incorporating both PCa incidence and death. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) and the proportion of the total effect of body mass index (BMI) on PCa death mediated through TyG index. RESULTS: In the PCa-case-only analysis, baseline TyG index was positively associated with PCa death (HR per 1-standard deviation: 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI); 1.01-1.22), and mediated a substantial proportion of the baseline BMI effect on PCa death (HRtotal effect per 5-kg/m2 BMI: 1.24; 1.14-1.35, of which 28%; 4%-52%, mediated). In contrast, in the full cohort, the TyG index was not associated with PCa death (HR: 1.03; 0.94-1.13), hence did not substantially mediate the effect of BMI on PCa death. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance could be an important pathway through which obesity accelerates PCa progression to death.

Genomic atlas of the human plasma proteome.

Although plasma proteins have important roles in biological processes and are the direct targets of many drugs, the genetic factors that control inter-individual variation in plasma protein levels are not well understood. Here we characterize the genetic architecture of the human plasma proteome in healthy blood donors from the INTERVAL study. We identify 1,927 genetic associations with 1,478 proteins, a fourfold increase on existing knowledge, including trans associations for 1,104 proteins. To understand the consequences of perturbations in plasma protein levels, we apply an integrated approach that links genetic variation with biological pathway, disease, and drug databases. We show that protein quantitative trait loci overlap with gene expression quantitative trait loci, as well as with disease-associated loci, and find evidence that protein biomarkers have causal roles in disease using Mendelian randomization analysis. By linking genetic factors to diseases via specific proteins, our analyses highlight potential therapeutic targets, opportunities for matching existing drugs with new disease indications, and potential safety concerns for drugs under development.

Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. METHODS: We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. RESULTS: Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Impact of a post-donation hemoglobin testing strategy on efficiency and safety of whole blood donation in England: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Deferrals due to low hemoglobin are time-consuming and costly for blood donors and donation services. Furthermore, accepting donations from those with low hemoglobin could represent a significant safety issue. One approach to reduce them is to use hemoglobin concentration alongside donor characteristics to inform personalized inter-donation intervals. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from 17,308 donors to inform a discrete event simulation model comparing personalized inter-donation intervals using "post-donation" testing (i.e., estimating current hemoglobin from that measured by a hematology analyzer at last donation) versus the current approach in England (i.e., pre-donation testing with fixed intervals of 12-weeks for men and 16-weeks for women). We reported the impact on total donations, low hemoglobin deferrals, inappropriate bleeds, and blood service costs. Personalized inter-donation intervals were defined using mixed-effects modeling to estimate hemoglobin trajectories and probability of crossing hemoglobin donation thresholds. RESULTS: The model had generally good internal validation, with predicted events similar to those observed. Over 1 year, a personalized strategy requiring ≥90% probability of being over the hemoglobin threshold, minimized adverse events (low hemoglobin deferrals and inappropriate bleeds) in both sexes and costs in women. Donations per adverse event improved from 3.4 (95% uncertainty interval 2.8, 3.7) under the current strategy to 14.8 (11.6, 19.2) in women, and from 7.1 (6.1, 8.5) to 26.9 (20.8, 42.6) in men. In comparison, a strategy incorporating early returns for those with high certainty of being over the threshold maximized total donations in both men and women, but was less favorable in terms of adverse events, with 8.4 donations per adverse event in women (7.0, 10,1) and 14.8 (12.1, 21.0) in men. DISCUSSION: Personalized inter-donation intervals using post-donation testing combined with modeling of hemoglobin trajectories can help reduce deferrals, inappropriate bleeds, and costs.

Mendelian Randomization Study of ACLY and Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: ATP citrate lyase is an enzyme in the cholesterol-biosynthesis pathway upstream of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), the target of statins. Whether the genetic inhibition of ATP citrate lyase is associated with deleterious outcomes and whether it has the same effect, per unit decrease in the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level, as the genetic inhibition of HMGCR is unclear. METHODS: We constructed genetic scores composed of independently inherited variants in the genes encoding ATP citrate lyase (ACLY) and HMGCR to create instruments that mimic the effect of ATP citrate lyase inhibitors and HMGCR inhibitors (statins), respectively. We then compared the associations of these genetic scores with plasma lipid levels, lipoprotein levels, and the risk of cardiovascular events and cancer. RESULTS: A total of 654,783 participants, including 105,429 participants who had major cardiovascular events, were included in the study. The ACLY and HMGCR scores were associated with similar patterns of changes in plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels and with similar effects on the risk of cardiovascular events per decrease of 10 mg per deciliter in the LDL cholesterol level: odds ratio for cardiovascular events, 0.823 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.87; P = 4.0×10-14) for the ACLY score and 0.836 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.87; P = 3.9×10-19) for the HMGCR score. Neither lifelong genetic inhibition of ATP citrate lyase nor lifelong genetic inhibition of HMGCR was associated with an increased risk of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants that mimic the effect of ATP citrate lyase inhibitors and statins appeared to lower plasma LDL cholesterol levels by the same mechanism of action and were associated with similar effects on the risk of cardiovascular disease per unit decrease in the LDL cholesterol level. (Funded by Esperion Therapeutics and others.).

Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Accounting for Future Initiation of Statin Treatment.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-prediction models are used to identify high-risk individuals and guide statin initiation. However, these models are usually derived from individuals who might initiate statins during follow-up. We present a simple approach to address statin initiation to predict "statin-naive" CVD risk. We analyzed primary care data (2004-2017) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 1,678,727 individuals (aged 40-85 years) without CVD or statin treatment history at study entry. We derived age- and sex-specific prediction models including conventional risk factors and a time-dependent effect of statin initiation constrained to 25% risk reduction (from trial results). We compared predictive performance and measures of public-health impact (e.g., number needed to screen to prevent 1 event) against models ignoring statin initiation. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 103,163 individuals developed CVD. In models accounting for (versus ignoring) statin initiation, 10-year CVD risk predictions were slightly higher; predictive performance was moderately improved. However, few individuals were reclassified to a high-risk threshold, resulting in negligible improvements in number needed to screen to prevent 1 event. In conclusion, incorporating statin effects from trial results into risk-prediction models enables statin-naive CVD risk estimation and provides moderate gains in predictive ability but had a limited impact on treatment decision-making under current guidelines in this population.

Genome-wide analysis of blood lipid metabolites in over 5000 South Asians reveals biological insights at cardiometabolic disease loci.

BACKGROUND: Genetic, lifestyle, and environmental factors can lead to perturbations in circulating lipid levels and increase the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. However, how changes in individual lipid species contribute to disease risk is often unclear. Moreover, little is known about the role of lipids on cardiovascular disease in Pakistan, a population historically underrepresented in cardiovascular studies. METHODS: We characterised the genetic architecture of the human blood lipidome in 5662 hospital controls from the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS) and 13,814 healthy British blood donors from the INTERVAL study. We applied a candidate causal gene prioritisation tool to link the genetic variants associated with each lipid to the most likely causal genes, and Gaussian Graphical Modelling network analysis to identify and illustrate relationships between lipids and genetic loci. RESULTS: We identified 253 genetic associations with 181 lipids measured using direct infusion high-resolution mass spectrometry in PROMIS, and 502 genetic associations with 244 lipids in INTERVAL. Our analyses revealed new biological insights at genetic loci associated with cardiometabolic diseases, including novel lipid associations at the LPL, MBOAT7, LIPC, APOE-C1-C2-C4, SGPP1, and SPTLC3 loci. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, generated using a distinctive lipidomics platform in an understudied South Asian population, strengthen and expand the knowledge base of the genetic determinants of lipids and their association with cardiometabolic disease-related loci.

Short physical performance battery as a practical tool to assess mortality risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of mortality and common in older adults. The BODE Index is the most recognised mortality risk score in COPD but includes a 6-minute walk test (6MWT) that is seldom available in practise; the BODE Index may be better adopted if the 6MWT was replaced. OBJECTIVES: we investigated whether a modified BODE Index in which 6MWT was replaced by an alternative measure of physical capacity, specifically the short physical performance battery (SPPB) or components, retained its predictive ability for mortality in individuals with COPD. METHODS: we analysed 630 COPD patients from the ERICA cohort study for whom UK Office for National Statistics verified mortality data were available. Variables tested at baseline included spirometry, 6MWT, SPPB and its components (4-m gait speed test [4MGS], chair stand and balance). Predictive models were developed using stratified multivariable Cox regression, and assessed by C-indices and calibration plots with 10-fold cross-validation and replication. RESULTS: during median 2 years of follow-up, 60 (10%) individuals died. There was no significant difference between the discriminative ability of BODE6MWT (C-index 0.709, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.680-0.737), BODESPPB (C-index 0.683, 95% CI, 0.647-0.712), BODE4MGS (C-index 0.676, 95% CI, 0.643-0.700) and BODEBALANCE (C-index 0.686, 95% CI, 0.651-0.713) for predicting mortality. CONCLUSIONS: the SPPB, and its 4MGS and balance components, can potentially be used as an alternative to the 6MWT in the BODE Index without significant loss of predictive ability in all-cause mortality.

Comparison of four methods to measure haemoglobin concentrations in whole blood donors (COMPARE): A diagnostic accuracy study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare four haemoglobin measurement methods in whole blood donors. BACKGROUND: To safeguard donors, blood services measure haemoglobin concentration in advance of each donation. NHS Blood and Transplant's (NHSBT) customary method have been capillary gravimetry (copper sulphate), followed by venous spectrophotometry (HemoCue) for donors failing gravimetry. However, NHSBT's customary method results in 10% of donors being inappropriately bled (ie, with haemoglobin values below the regulatory threshold). METHODS: We compared the following four methods in 21 840 blood donors (aged ≥18 years) recruited from 10 NHSBT centres in England, with the Sysmex XN-2000 haematology analyser, the reference standard: (1) NHSBT's customary method; (2) "post donation" approach, that is, estimating current haemoglobin concentration from that measured by a haematology analyser at a donor's most recent prior donation; (3) "portable haemoglobinometry" (using capillary HemoCue); (4) non-invasive spectrometry (using MBR Haemospect or Orsense NMB200). We assessed sensitivity; specificity; proportion who would have been inappropriately bled, or rejected from donation ("deferred") incorrectly; and test preference. RESULTS: Compared with the reference standard, the methods ranged in test sensitivity from 17.0% (MBR Haemospect) to 79.0% (portable haemoglobinometry) in men, and from 19.0% (MBR Haemospect) to 82.8% (portable haemoglobinometry) in women. For specificity, the methods ranged from 87.2% (MBR Haemospect) to 99.9% (NHSBT's customary method) in men, and from 74.1% (Orsense NMB200) to 99.8% (NHSBT's customary method) in women. The proportion of donors who would have been inappropriately bled ranged from 2.2% in men for portable haemoglobinometry to 18.9% in women for MBR Haemospect. The proportion of donors who would have been deferred incorrectly with haemoglobin concentration above the minimum threshold ranged from 0.1% in men for NHSBT's customary method to 20.3% in women for OrSense. Most donors preferred non-invasive spectrometry. CONCLUSION: In the largest study reporting head-to-head comparisons of four methods to measure haemoglobin prior to blood donation, our results support replacement of NHSBT's customary method with portable haemoglobinometry.

ProGeM: a framework for the prioritization of candidate causal genes at molecular quantitative trait loci.

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping of molecular phenotypes such as metabolites, lipids and proteins through genome-wide association studies represents a powerful means of highlighting molecular mechanisms relevant to human diseases. However, a major challenge of this approach is to identify the causal gene(s) at the observed QTLs. Here, we present a framework for the 'Prioritization of candidate causal Genes at Molecular QTLs' (ProGeM), which incorporates biological domain-specific annotation data alongside genome annotation data from multiple repositories. We assessed the performance of ProGeM using a reference set of 227 previously reported and extensively curated metabolite QTLs. For 98% of these loci, the expert-curated gene was one of the candidate causal genes prioritized by ProGeM. Benchmarking analyses revealed that 69% of the causal candidates were nearest to the sentinel variant at the investigated molecular QTLs, indicating that genomic proximity is the most reliable indicator of 'true positive' causal genes. In contrast, cis-gene expression QTL data led to three false positive candidate causal gene assignments for every one true positive assignment. We provide evidence that these conclusions also apply to other molecular phenotypes, suggesting that ProGeM is a powerful and versatile tool for annotating molecular QTLs. ProGeM is freely available via GitHub.

The associations of major foods and fibre with risks of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke: a prospective study of 418 329 participants in the EPIC cohort across nine European countries.

AIM: To investigate the associations between major foods and dietary fibre with subtypes of stroke in a large prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data on 418 329 men and women from nine European countries, with an average of 12.7 years of follow-up. Diet was assessed using validated country-specific questionnaires which asked about habitual intake over the past year, calibrated using 24-h recalls. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke associated with consumption of red and processed meat, poultry, fish, dairy foods, eggs, cereals, fruit and vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds, and dietary fibre. For ischaemic stroke (4281 cases), lower risks were observed with higher consumption of fruit and vegetables combined (HR; 95% CI per 200 g/day higher intake, 0.87; 0.82-0.93, P-trend < 0.001), dietary fibre (per 10 g/day, 0.77; 0.69-0.86, P-trend < 0.001), milk (per 200 g/day, 0.95; 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.02), yogurt (per 100 g/day, 0.91; 0.85-0.97, P-trend = 0.004), and cheese (per 30 g/day, 0.88; 0.81-0.97, P-trend = 0.008), while higher risk was observed with higher red meat consumption which attenuated when adjusted for the other statistically significant foods (per 50 g/day, 1.07; 0.96-1.20, P-trend = 0.20). For haemorrhagic stroke (1430 cases), higher risk was associated with higher egg consumption (per 20 g/day, 1.25; 1.09-1.43, P-trend = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Risk of ischaemic stroke was inversely associated with consumption of fruit and vegetables, dietary fibre, and dairy foods, while risk of haemorrhagic stroke was positively associated with egg consumption. The apparent differences in the associations highlight the importance of examining ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke subtypes separately.

Height, body mass index and prostate cancer risk and mortality by way of detection and cancer risk category.

Obesity is a risk factor for advanced, but not localised, prostate cancer (PCa), and for poor prognosis. However, the detection of localised PCa through asymptomatic screening might influence these associations. We investigated height and body mass index (BMI) among 431 902 men in five Swedish cohorts in relation to PCa risk, according to cancer risk category and detection mode, and PCa-specific mortality using Cox regression. Statistical tests were two-sided. Height was positively associated with localised intermediate-risk PCa (HR per 5 cm, 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), while overweight and obesity were negatively associated with localised low- and intermediate-risk PCa (HRs per 5 kg/m2 , 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, and 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97). However, these associations were partially driven by PCa's detected by asymptomatic screening and, for height, also by symptoms unrelated to PCa. The HR of localised PCa's, per 5 kg/m2 , was 0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92 for screen-detected PCa's and 0.96, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.01 for PCa's detected through lower urinary tract symptoms. BMI was positively associated with PCa-specific mortality in the full population and in case-only analysis of each PCa risk category (HRs per 5 kg/m2 , 1.11-1.22, P for heterogeneity = .14). More active health-seeking behaviour among tall and normal-weight men may partially explain their higher risk of localised PCa. The higher PCa-specific mortality among obese men across all PCa risk categories in our study suggests obesity as a potential target to improve the prognosis of obese PCa patients.

Independent influences of maternal obesity and fetal sex on maternal cardiovascular adaptation to pregnancy: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Successful pregnancy requires the de novo creation of low-resistance utero-placental and feto-placental circulations and incomplete remodeling of this vasculature can lead to maternal or fetal compromise. Maternal BMI and fetal sex are known to influence vascular compliance and placental development, but it is unknown if these are independent or synergistic effects. Here we aim to investigate the impact of maternal obesity, fetal sex, and any interaction thereof on maternal cardiovascular adaptation to pregnancy, by assessing the physiological drop of uterine artery doppler pulsatility (UtA-PI) and umbilical artery doppler pulsatility index (UA-PI) over gestation. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy participating in a prospective cohort study (n = 4212) underwent serial UtA-PI and UA-PI measurements at 20-, 28- and 36-weeks gestation. Linear mixed regression models were employed to investigate the influence of maternal BMI, fetal sex and interactions thereof on the magnitude of change in UtA-PI and UA-PI. RESULTS: Throughout gestation, UtA-PI was higher for male fetuses and UA-PI was higher for female fetuses. The physiological drop of UtA-PI was significantly smaller in overweight (change -24.3% [95%CI -22.3, -26.2]) and obese women (change -21.3% [-18.3, -24.3]), compared to normal-weight women (change -25.7% [-24.3, -27.0]) but did not differ by fetal sex. The physiological drop in UA-PI was greater for female than male fetuses (-32.5% [-31.5, -33.5] vs. -30.7% [-29.8, -31.7]) but did not differ by maternal BMI. No interactions between maternal BMI and fetal sex were found. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal cardiovascular adaptation to pregnancy is independently associated with maternal BMI and fetal sex. Our results imply sexual dimorphism in both maternal cardiovascular adaptation and feto-placental resistance.

Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases.

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162 036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and the UK Biobank (401 219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposures: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale (range, 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). The UK Biobank recorded the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ-2; range, 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and CVD (composite of the 2). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162 036 participants from the ERFC (73%, women; mean age at baseline, 63 years [SD, 9 years]), 5078 CHD and 3932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5 years). Associations with CHD, stroke, and CVD were log linear. The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11); stroke, 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.10); and CVD, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up in the highest vs the lowest quintile of CES-D score (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 vs 1) were 36.3 vs 29.0 for CHD events, 28.0 vs 24.7 for stroke events, and 62.8 vs 53.5 for CVD events. Among 401 219 participants from the UK Biobank (55% were women, mean age at baseline, 56 years [SD, 8 years]), 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1 years). The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.14); stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06-1.14); and CVD, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up among individuals with PHQ-2 scores of 4 or higher vs 0 were 20.9 vs 14.2 for CHD events, 15.3 vs 10.2 for stroke events, and 36.2 vs 24.5 for CVD events. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563 255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels lower than the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.

An Unbiased Lipid Phenotyping Approach To Study the Genetic Determinants of Lipids and Their Association with Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors.

Direct infusion high-resolution mass spectrometry (DIHRMS) is a novel, high-throughput approach to rapidly and accurately profile hundreds of lipids in human serum without prior chromatography, facilitating in-depth lipid phenotyping for large epidemiological studies to reveal the detailed associations of individual lipids with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Intact lipid profiling by DIHRMS was performed on 5662 serum samples from healthy participants in the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS). We developed a novel semi-targeted peak-picking algorithm to detect mass-to-charge ratios in positive and negative ionization modes. We analyzed lipid partial correlations, assessed the association of lipid principal components with established CHD risk factors and genetic variants, and examined differences between lipids for a common genetic polymorphism. The DIHRMS method provided information on 360 lipids (including fatty acyls, glycerolipids, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sterol lipids), with a median coefficient of variation of 11.6% (range: 5.4-51.9). The lipids were highly correlated and exhibited a range of associations with clinical chemistry biomarkers and lifestyle factors. This platform can provide many novel insights into the effects of physiology and lifestyle on lipid metabolism, genetic determinants of lipids, and the relationship between individual lipids and CHD risk factors.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Biomarkers and clinical outcomes in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conventional measures to evaluate COPD may fail to capture systemic problems, particularly musculoskeletal weakness and cardiovascular disease. Identifying these manifestations and assessing their association with clinical outcomes (ie, mortality, exacerbation and COPD hospital admission) is of increasing clinical importance. OBJECTIVE: To assess associations between 6 min walk distance (6MWD), heart rate, fibrinogen, C reactive protein (CRP), white cell count (WCC), interleukins 6 and 8 (IL-6 and IL-8), tumour necrosis factor-alpha, quadriceps maximum voluntary contraction, sniff nasal inspiratory pressure, short physical performance battery, pulse wave velocity, carotid intima-media thickness and augmentation index and clinical outcomes in patients with stable COPD. METHODS: We systematically searched electronic databases (August 2018) and identified 61 studies, which were synthesised, including meta-analyses to estimate pooled HRs, following Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS: Shorter 6MWD and elevated heart rate, fibrinogen, CRP and WCC were associated with higher risk of mortality. Pooled HRs were 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.89) per 50 m longer 6MWD, 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.18) per 10 bpm higher heart rate, 3.13 (95% CI 2.14 to 4.57) per twofold increase in fibrinogen, 1.17 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.28) per twofold increase in CRP and 2.07 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.31) per twofold increase in WCC. Shorter 6MWD and elevated fibrinogen and CRP were associated with exacerbation, and shorter 6MWD, higher heart rate, CRP and IL-6 were associated with hospitalisation. Few studies examined associations with musculoskeletal measures. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest 6MWD, heart rate, CRP, fibrinogen and WCC are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with stable COPD. Use of musculoskeletal measures to assess outcomes in patients with COPD requires further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016052075.

Population-calibrated multiple imputation for a binary/categorical covariate in categorical regression models.

Multiple imputation (MI) has become popular for analyses with missing data in medical research. The standard implementation of MI is based on the assumption of data being missing at random (MAR). However, for missing data generated by missing not at random mechanisms, MI performed assuming MAR might not be satisfactory. For an incomplete variable in a given data set, its corresponding population marginal distribution might also be available in an external data source. We show how this information can be readily utilised in the imputation model to calibrate inference to the population by incorporating an appropriately calculated offset termed the "calibrated-δ adjustment." We describe the derivation of this offset from the population distribution of the incomplete variable and show how, in applications, it can be used to closely (and often exactly) match the post-imputation distribution to the population level. Through analytic and simulation studies, we show that our proposed calibrated-δ adjustment MI method can give the same inference as standard MI when data are MAR, and can produce more accurate inference under two general missing not at random missingness mechanisms. The method is used to impute missing ethnicity data in a type 2 diabetes prevalence case study using UK primary care electronic health records, where it results in scientifically relevant changes in inference for non-White ethnic groups compared with standard MI. Calibrated-δ adjustment MI represents a pragmatic approach for utilising available population-level information in a sensitivity analysis to explore potential departures from the MAR assumption.

Effect of interpregnancy weight change on perinatal outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is a well-known risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes, evidence is sparse about the effects of interpregnancy weight change on the risk of adverse perinatal complications in a subsequent pregnancy. The current study aims to assess the effect of interpregnancy weight change on the risk of developing gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia, pregnancy induced hypertension, preterm birth, or delivering a large- or small-for-gestational age neonate. METHODS: Pubmed, Ovid Embase, ClinicalTrial.gov and the Cochrane library were systematically searched up until July 24th, 2019. Interpregnancy weight change was defined as the difference between pre-pregnancy weight of an index pregnancy and a consecutive pregnancy. Inclusion criteria included full text original articles reporting quantitative data about interpregnancy weight change in multiparous women with any time interval between consecutive births and the risk of any perinatal complication of interest. Studies reporting adjusted odds ratios and a reference group of - 1 to + 1 BMI unit change between pregnancies were harmonised by meta-analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-three cohort studies identified a total of 671,906 women with two or more consecutive pregnancies. Seven of these studies were included in the meta-analysis (280,672 women). Interpregnancy weight gain was consistently associated with a higher risk of gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia, pregnancy induced hypertension and large-for-gestational age births. In contrast, interpregnancy weight loss was associated with a lower risk of delivering a large-for-gestational age neonate. The effect magnitude (relative risk) of interpregnancy weight gain on pregnancy induced hypertension or delivering a large-for-gestational age neonate was greater among women with a normal BMI in the index pregnancy compared to women with a starting BMI ≥25 kg/m2. CONCLUSION: These findings confirm that interpregnancy weight change impacts the risk of developing perinatal complications in a subsequent pregnancy. This provides evidence in support of guidelines encouraging women to achieve post-partum weight loss, as their risk of perinatal complications might be minimised if they return to their pre-pregnancy weight before conceiving again. Prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017067326).

Association of Triglyceride-Lowering LPL Variants and LDL-C-Lowering LDLR Variants With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

Importance: Triglycerides and cholesterol are both carried in plasma by apolipoprotein B (ApoB)-containing lipoprotein particles. It is unknown whether lowering plasma triglyceride levels reduces the risk of cardiovascular events to the same extent as lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Objective: To compare the association of triglyceride-lowering variants in the lipoprotein lipase (LPL) gene and LDL-C-lowering variants in the LDL receptor gene (LDLR) with the risk of cardiovascular disease per unit change in ApoB. Design, Setting, and Participants: Mendelian randomization analyses evaluating the associations of genetic scores composed of triglyceride-lowering variants in the LPL gene and LDL-C-lowering variants in the LDLR gene, respectively, with the risk of cardiovascular events among participants enrolled in 63 cohort or case-control studies conducted in North America or Europe between 1948 and 2017. Exposures: Differences in plasma triglyceride, LDL-C, and ApoB levels associated with the LPL and LDLR genetic scores. Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratio (OR) for coronary heart disease (CHD)-defined as coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization-per 10-mg/dL lower concentration of ApoB-containing lipoproteins. Results: A total of 654 783 participants, including 91 129 cases of CHD, were included (mean age, 62.7 years; 51.4% women). For each 10-mg/dL lower level of ApoB-containing lipoproteins, the LPL score was associated with 69.9-mg/dL (95% CI, 68.1-71.6; P = 7.1 × 10-1363) lower triglyceride levels and 0.7-mg/dL (95% CI, 0.03-1.4; P = .04) higher LDL-C levels; while the LDLR score was associated with 14.2-mg/dL (95% CI, 13.6-14.8; P = 1.4 × 10-465) lower LDL-C and 1.9-mg/dL (95% CI, 0.1-3.9; P = .04) lower triglyceride levels. Despite these differences in associated lipid levels, the LPL and LDLR scores were associated with similar lower risk of CHD per 10-mg/dL lower level of ApoB-containing lipoproteins (OR, 0.771 [95% CI, 0.741-0.802], P = 3.9 × 10-38 and OR, 0.773 [95% CI, 0.747-0.801], P = 1.1 × 10-46, respectively). In multivariable mendelian randomization analyses, the associations between triglyceride and LDL-C levels with the risk of CHD became null after adjusting for differences in ApoB (triglycerides: OR, 1.014 [95% CI, 0.965-1.065], P = .19; LDL-C: OR, 1.010 [95% CI, 0.967-1.055], P = .19; ApoB: OR, 0.761 [95% CI, 0.723-0.798], P = 7.51 × 10-20). Conclusions and Relevance: Triglyceride-lowering LPL variants and LDL-C-lowering LDLR variants were associated with similar lower risk of CHD per unit difference in ApoB. Therefore, the clinical benefit of lowering triglyceride and LDL-C levels may be proportional to the absolute change in ApoB.