Emergence of the B.1.214.2 SARS-CoV-2 lineage with an Omicron-like spike insertion and a unique upper airway immune signature.

We investigate the emergence, mutation profile, and dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.214.2, first identified in Belgium in January 2021. This variant, featuring a 3-amino acid insertion in the spike protein similar to the Omicron variant, was speculated to enhance transmissibility or immune evasion. Initially detected in international travelers, it substantially transmitted in Central Africa, Belgium, Switzerland, and France, peaking in April 2021. Our travel-aware phylogeographic analysis, incorporating travel history, estimated the origin to the Republic of the Congo, with primary European entry through France and Belgium, and multiple smaller introductions during the epidemic. We correlate its spread with human travel patterns and air passenger data. Further, upon reviewing national reports of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Belgian nursing homes, we found this strain caused moderately severe outcomes (8.7% case fatality ratio). A distinct nasopharyngeal immune response was observed in elderly patients, characterized by 80% unique signatures, higher B- and T-cell activation, increased type I IFN signaling, and reduced NK, Th17, and complement system activation, compared to similar outbreaks. This unique immune response may explain the variant's epidemiological behavior and underscores the need for nasal vaccine strategies against emerging variants.

Developing a questionnaire to evaluate an automated audit & feedback intervention: a Rand-modified Delphi method.

BACKGROUND: Audit and feedback (A&F) is a widely used implementation strategy to evaluate and improve medical practice. The optimal design of an A&F system is uncertain and structured process evaluations are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a questionnaire to evaluate the use of automated A&F systems. METHODS: Based on the Clinical Performance Feedback Intervention Theory (CP-FIT) and the REFLECT-52 (REassessing audit & Feedback interventions: a tooL for Evaluating Compliance with suggested besT practices) evaluation tool a questionnaire was designed for the purpose of evaluating automated A&F systems. A Rand-modified Delphi method was used to develop the process evaluation and obtain validation. Fourteen experts from different domains in primary care consented to participate and individually scored the questions on a 9-point Likert scale. Afterwards, the questions were discussed in a consensus meeting. After approval, the final questionnaire was compiled. RESULTS: A 34-question questionnaire composed of 57 items was developed and presented to the expert panel. The consensus meeting resulted in a selection of 31 questions, subdivided into 43 items. A final list of 30 questions consisting of 42 items was obtained. CONCLUSION: A questionnaire consisting of 30 questions was drawn up for the assessment and improvement of automated A&F systems, based on CP-FIT and REFLECT-52 theory and approved by experts. Next steps will be piloting and implementation of the questionnaire.

Stakeholders' experiences and perception on transitional care initiatives within an integrated care project in Belgium: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, a plan for integrated care was launched by the Belgium government that resulted in the implementation of 12 integrated care pilot project across Belgium. The pilot project Zorgzaam Leuven consists of a multidisciplinary local consortium aiming to bring lasting change towards integrated care for the region of Leuven. This study aims to explore experiences and perceptions of stakeholders involved in four transitional care actions that are part of Zorgzaam Leuven. METHODS: This qualitative case study is part of the European TRANS-SENIOR project. Four actions with a focus on improving transitional care were selected and stakeholders involved in those actions were identified using the snow-ball method. Fourteen semi-structured interviews were conducted and inductive thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Professionals appreciated to be involved in the decision making early onwards either by proposing own initiatives or by providing their input in shaping actions. Improved team spirit and community feeling with other health care professionals (HCPs) was reported to reduce communication barriers and was perceived to benefit both patients and professionals. The actions provided supportive tools and various learning opportunities that participants acknowledged. Technical shortcomings (e.g. lack of integrated patient records) and financial and political support were identified as key challenges impeding the sustainable implementation of the transitional care actions. CONCLUSION: The pilot project Zorgzaam Leuven created conditions that triggered work motivation for HCPs. It supported the development of multidisciplinary care partnerships at the local level that allowed early involvement and increased collaboration, which is crucial to successfully improve transitional care for vulnerable patients.

Pneumococcal vaccination coverage and adherence to recommended dosing schedules in adults: a repeated cross-sectional study of the INTEGO morbidity registry.

BACKGROUND: Since 2014, Belgium's Superior Health Council has recommended pneumococcal vaccination for adults aged 19-85 years at increased risk for pneumococcal diseases with a specific vaccine administration sequence and timing. Currently, Belgium has no publicly funded adult pneumococcal vaccination program. This study investigated the seasonal pneumococcal vaccination trends, evolution of vaccination coverage and adherence to the 2014 recommendations. METHODS: INTEGO is a general practice morbidity registry in Flanders (Belgium) that represents 102 general practice centres and comprised over 300.000 patients in 2021. A repeated cross-sectional study was performed for the period between 2017 and 2021. Using adjusted odds ratios computed via multiple logistic regression, the association between an individual's characteristics (gender, age, comorbidities, influenza vaccination status and socioeconomic status) and schedule-adherent pneumococcal vaccination status was assessed. RESULTS: Pneumococcal vaccination coincided with seasonal flu vaccination. The vaccination coverage in the population at risk decreased from 21% in 2017 to 18.2% in 2018 and then started to increase to 23.6% in 2021. Coverage in 2021 was highest for high-risk adults (33.8%) followed by 50- to 85-year-olds with comorbidities (25.5%) and healthy 65- to 85-year-olds (18.7%). In 2021, 56.3% of the high-risk adults, 74.6% of the 50+ with comorbidities persons, and 74% of the 65+ healthy persons had an adherent vaccination schedule. Persons with a lower socioeconomic status had an adjusted odds ratio of 0.92 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.87-0.97) for primary vaccination, 0.67 (95% CI 0.60-0.75) for adherence to the recommended second vaccination if the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was administered first and 0.86 (95% CI 0.76-0.97) if the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine was administered first. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal vaccine coverage is slowly increasing in Flanders, displaying seasonal peaks in sync with influenza vaccination campaigns. However, with less than one-fourth of the target population vaccinated, less than 60% high-risk and approximately 74% of 50 + with comorbidities and 65+ healthy persons with an adherent schedule, there is still much room for improvement. Furthermore, adults with poor socioeconomic status had lower odds of primary vaccination and schedule adherence, demonstrating the need for a publicly funded program in Belgium to ensure equitable access.

Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy in community-dwelling middle aged and aged adults between 2011 and 2015.

AIMS: We aimed to assess the prevalence, components and evolution of polypharmacy and to evaluate risk factors associated with polypharmacy. METHODS: A retrospective dynamic cohort study was performed, using a primary healthcare database comprising Flemish community-dwelling adults aged ≥40 years between 2011 and 2015. Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy were defined as the use of 5-9 or minimum 10 different medications during 1 year, respectively. Temporal changes were analysed using an autoregressive error model. Risk factors for polypharmacy were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 68 426 patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of polypharmacy was 29.5% and 16.1% for excessive polypharmacy in 2015. The age-standardised prevalence rate of patients using minimum five medications increased with 1.3% per year (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1968-2.4279). The mean number of unplanned hospital admissions was 0.07 (standard deviation (SD) 0.33) for polypharmacy patients and 0.19 (SD 0.53) for excessive polypharmacy patients. Four risk factors were found to be significantly correlated with polypharmacy: age (odds ratio (OR) 1.015; 95% CI: 1.013-1.017), female gender (OR 1.161; 95% CI: 1.108-1.216), number of chronic diseases (OR 1.126; 95% CI: 1.114-1.139) and number of general practitioner contacts (OR 1.283; 95% CI: 1.274-1.292). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of polypharmacy increased between 2011 and 2015. Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy patients appeared to differ based on our observations of characteristics, drug therapy and outcomes. Age, female gender, number of chronic diseases and number of general practitioner contacts were associated with polypharmacy.

An automated data cleaning method for Electronic Health Records by incorporating clinical knowledge.

BACKGROUND: The use of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data in clinical research is incredibly increasing, but the abundancy of data resources raises the challenge of data cleaning. It can save time if the data cleaning can be done automatically. In addition, the automated data cleaning tools for data in other domains often process all variables uniformly, meaning that they cannot serve well for clinical data, as there is variable-specific information that needs to be considered. This paper proposes an automated data cleaning method for EHR data with clinical knowledge taken into consideration. METHODS: We used EHR data collected from primary care in Flanders, Belgium during 1994-2015. We constructed a Clinical Knowledge Database to store all the variable-specific information that is necessary for data cleaning. We applied Fuzzy search to automatically detect and replace the wrongly spelled units, and performed the unit conversion following the variable-specific conversion formula. Then the numeric values were corrected and outliers were detected considering the clinical knowledge. In total, 52 clinical variables were cleaned, and the percentage of missing values (completeness) and percentage of values within the normal range (correctness) before and after the cleaning process were compared. RESULTS: All variables were 100% complete before data cleaning. 42 variables had a drop of less than 1% in the percentage of missing values and 9 variables declined by 1-10%. Only 1 variable experienced large decline in completeness (13.36%). All variables had more than 50% values within the normal range after cleaning, of which 43 variables had a percentage higher than 70%. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a general method for clinical variables, which achieves high automation and is capable to deal with large-scale data. This method largely improved the efficiency to clean the data and removed the technical barriers for non-technical people.

Developing quality indicators for Chronic Kidney Disease in primary care, extractable from the Electronic Medical Record. A Rand-modified Delphi method.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common chronic condition and a rising public health issue with increased morbidity and mortality, even at an early stage. Primary care has a pivotal role in the early detection and in the integrated management of CKD which should be of high quality. The quality of care for CKD can be assessed using quality indicators (QIs) and if these QIs are extractable from the electronic medical record (EMR) of the general physician, the number of patients whose quality of care can be evaluated, could increase vastly. Therefore the aim of this study is to develop QIs which are evidence based, EMR extractable and which can be used as a framework to automate quality assessment. METHODS: We used a Rand-modified Delphi method to develop QIs for CKD in primary care. A questionnaire was designed by extracting recommendations from international guidelines based on the SMART principle and the EMR extractability. A multidisciplinary expert panel, including patients, individually scored the recommendations for measuring high quality care on a 9-point Likert scale. The results were analyzed based on the median Likert score, prioritization and agreement. Subsequently, the recommendations were discussed in a consensus meeting for their in- or exclusion. After a final appraisal by the panel members this resulted in a core set of recommendations, which were then transformed into QIs. RESULTS: A questionnaire composed of 99 recommendations was extracted from 10 international guidelines. The consensus meeting resulted in a core set of 36 recommendations that were translated into 36 QIs. This final set consists of QIs concerning definition & classification, screening, diagnosis, management consisting of follow up, treatment & vaccination, medication & patient safety and referral to a specialist. It were mostly the patients participating in the panel who stressed the importance of the QIs concerning medication & patient safety and a timely referral to a specialist. CONCLUSION: This study provides a set of 36 EMR extractable QIs for measuring the quality of primary care for CKD. These QIs can be used as a framework to automate quality assessment for CKD in primary care.

Time trends in statin use and incidence of recurrent cardiovascular events in secondary prevention between 1999 and 2013: a registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: The current study evaluated time trends of statin use and incidence of recurrent CVD in secondary prevention from 1999 to 2013 and investigated which factors were associated with statin use in secondary prevention. METHODS: Intego is a primary care registration network with 111 general practitioners working in 48 practices in Flanders, Belgium. This retrospective registry-based study included patients aged 50 years or older with a history of CVD. The time trends of statin use and incidence of recurrent CVD in secondary prevention were determined by using a joinpoint regression analysis. Multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with statin use in patients in secondary prevention in 2013. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of statin use increased and showed two trends: a sharp increase from 1999 to 2005 (annual percentage change (APC) 25.4%) and a weaker increase from 2005 to 2013 (APC 3.7%). The average increase in statin use was the highest in patients aged 80 and older. Patients aged 70-79 years received the most statins. Men used more statins than women did, but both genders showed similar time trends. The incidence of CVD decreased by an average APC of 3.9%. There were no differences between men and women and between different age groups. A significant decrease was only observed in older patients without statins prescribed. In 2013, 61% of the patients in secondary prevention did not receive a statin. The absence of other secondary preventive medication was strongly associated with less statin use. Gender, age and comorbidity were associated with statin use to a lesser degree. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of statin use in secondary prevention increased strongly from 1999 to 2013. Less than 50% of patients with a history of CVD received a statin in 2013. Especially patients who did not receive other secondary preventive medication were more likely to not receive a statin. Despite the strong increase in statin use, there was only a small decrease in the incidence of recurrent CVD, and this occurred mainly in older patients without statins prescribed.

Patient and treatment characteristics associated with patient activation in patients undergoing hemodialysis: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Patient activation is associated with better outcomes and lower costs. Although the concept is widely investigated, little attention was given to patient activation and its predictors in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Hence, we aimed to investigate the level of patient activation and aimed to determine patient- and treatment-related predictors of activation in patients undergoing hemodialysis. METHODS: This cross-sectional observational study recruited patients undergoing hemodialysis in three Flemish hospitals. Participants were questioned about patient characteristics (i.e., age, sex, education, employment, children, social support, leisure-time, living condition, and care at home), treatment- and health-related characteristics (i.e., hospital, time since first dialysis, transplantation, self-reported health (EQ-VAS) and depressive symptoms (PHQ-2)), and patient activation (PAM-13). Univariate and multiple linear regression analyses with dummy variables were conducted to investigate the associations between the independent variables and patient activation. RESULTS: The average patient activation-score was 51. Of 192 patients, 44% patients did not believe they had an important role regarding their health. Multiple linear regression showed that older patients, who reported being in bad health, treated in a particular hospital, without leisure-time activities, and living in a residential care home, had lower patient activation. These variables explained 31% of the variance in patient activation. Based on literature, we found that activation of patients on hemodialysis is low, compared to that of other chronic patient groups. CONCLUSION: It could be useful to implement patient activation monitoring, since the level of activation is low in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Older patients, who reported being in bad health, treated in a particular hospital, without leisure-time activities, living in a residential care home, are at higher risk for lower activation.

Estimating the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and thyroid disorders using medication data in Flanders, Belgium.

Background: Various methods exist to estimate disease prevalences. The aim of this study was to determine whether dispensed, self-reported and prescribed medication data could be used to estimate the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and thyroid disorders. Second, these pharmaco-epidemiological estimates were compared with prevalences based on self-reported diagnoses and doctor-registered diagnoses. Methods: Data on medication for diabetes and thyroid disorders were obtained from three different sources in Flanders (Belgium) for 2008: a purely administrative database containing data on dispensed medication, the Belgian National Health Interview Survey for self-reported medication and diagnoses, and a patient record database for prescribed medication and doctor-registered diagnoses. Prevalences were estimated based on medication data and compared with each other. Cross-tabulations of dispensed medication and self-reported diagnoses, and prescribed medication and doctor-registered diagnoses, were investigated. Results: Prevalences based on dispensed medication were the highest (4.39 and 2.98% for diabetes and thyroid disorders, respectively). The lowest prevalences were found using prescribed medication (2.39 and 1.72%, respectively). Cross-tabulating dispensed medication and self-reported diagnoses yielded a moderate to high sensitivity for diabetes (90.4%) and thyroid disorders (77.5%), while prescribed medication showed a low sensitivity for doctor-registered diagnoses (56.5 and 43.6%, respectively). The specificity remained above 99% in all cases. Conclusions: This study was the first to perform cross-tabulations for disease prevalence estimates between different databases and within (sub)populations. Purely administrative database was shown to be a reliable source to estimate disease prevalence based on dispensed medication. Prevalence estimates based on prescribed or self-reported medication were shown to have important limitations.

Prognostic value of short-term decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s over height cubed (FEV1/Ht3) in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over.

BACKGROUND: Forced expiratory volume in 1 s over height cubed (FEV1/Ht3) is an FEV1 expression that uses no reference values and is independently associated with adverse outcomes in older adults. No studies have reported on the prognostic value of its decline over time in adults aged 80 and over. AIM: To investigate the prognostic value of FEV1/Ht3 decline for adverse outcomes in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over. METHODS: 328 community-dwelling adults aged 80 and over of the BELFRAIL prospective cohort had two valid FEV1 measurements as part of their comprehensive geriatric assessment at baseline and follow-up (after 1.7 ± 0.21 years). Kaplan-Meier survival curves, Cox and logistic multivariable regression, assessed association of excessive decline of FEV1/Ht3 (lowest quintile of percentage change) with all-cause mortality (3 years after follow-up assessment), time to first hospitalization (1 year), and new/ worsened disability in activities of daily living (ADL) at the follow-up assessment. RESULTS: Participants with excessive FEV1/Ht3 decline had increased adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause death 1.61 (95% CI 1.01-2.55) and first hospitalization 1.71 (1.08-2.71) and increased odds ratio for new/worsened ADL disability at follow-up 2.02 (1.10-3.68) compared to the rest of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive, short-term decline in FEV1/Ht3 was independently associated with all-cause mortality, time to first, unplanned hospitalization, and ADL disability in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over. This FEV1 expression should be further investigated in studies of longitudinal FEV1 change in older adults.

Correlates of dyspnoea and its association with adverse outcomes in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over.

Background: adults aged 80 and over, a fast growing age-group, with increased co-morbidity and frailty have not been the focus of previous research on dyspnoea. We investigate the correlates of dyspnoea and its association with adverse outcomes in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over. Methods: about 565 community-dwelling adults aged 80 and over of the BELFRAIL prospective cohort had assessment of Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale (MRC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), physical performance tests, grip strength, 15 items geriatric depression scale, activities of daily living (ADL), body mass index (BMI) and demographics data. Kaplan-Meier survival curves, Cox and logistic multivariable regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis assessed association of dyspnoea (MRC 3-5) with time-to-cardiovascular and all-cause death (5 years), time to first hospitalisation (3 years), new/worsened ADL disability (2 years), and its correlates. Results: participants with dyspnoea MRC 3-5 (29.9%) had increased hazard ratios for cardiovascular mortality 2.85 (95% confidence interval 1.93-4.20), all-cause mortality 2.04 (1.58-2.64), first hospitalisation 1.72 (1.35-2.19); and increased odds ratio for new/worsened disability 2.49 (1.54-4.04), independent of age, sex and smoking status. Only FEV1, physical performance, BMI and NT-proBNP (in order of importance) were selected in the tree-based classification model for dyspnoea. Conclusions: in a cohort of adults aged 80 and over, dyspnoea was common and an independent predictor of adverse outcomes, with cardio-respiratory and physical performance impairments as key independent correlates. Its routine and comprehensive evaluation in primary care could be very valuable in caring for this age-group.

Association between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in the oldest old: untangling the role of frailty.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no consensus regarding cardiovascular risk management in the very old. Studies have shown that the relationship between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and mortality is null or even inverted within this age group. This relationship could be modified by the presence of frailty. This study was performed to examine the effect of frailty on the association between cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in the oldest old. METHODS: The BELFRAIL study is a prospective, observational, population-based cohort study of 567 subjects aged 80 years and older. Data on cardiovascular risk factors were recorded. Frailty was assessed using three different models: the Groningen Frailty Indicator, Fried and Puts models. Participants were considered robust if they were 'not frail' according to all three models, and frail if they met the frailty criteria for one of the three models. The follow-up data on mortality and cause of death were registered. RESULTS: No cardiovascular risk factor was associated with mortality in subjects with and without cardiovascular disease. The presence of frailty was a strong risk factor for mortality [HR: 2.5, 95%CI: (1.9-3.2) for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.2, 95%CI: (1.4-3.4) for cardiovascular mortality]. In robust patients, a history of cardiovascular disease increased the risk for mortality [HR: 1.7, 95%CI: (1.1-2.5) for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.2, 95%CI: (1.2-3.9) for cardiovascular mortality]. In frail patients, there was no association between any of the traditional risk factors and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were not associated with mortality in very old subjects. Frailty was shown to be a strong risk factor for mortality in this age group. However, frailty could not be used to identify additional subjects who might benefit more from cardiovascular risk management.

A High Sense of Coherence as Protection Against Adverse Health Outcomes in Patients Aged 80 Years and Older.

PURPOSE: We set out to assess whether a high sense of coherence (SOC) protects from adverse health outcomes in patients aged 80 years and older who have multiple chronic diseases. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study in 29 primary care practices throughout Belgium included 567 individuals aged 80 years and older. We plotted the highest tertile of SOC scores in Kaplan-Meier curves representing 3-year mortality and time to first hospitalization. Using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses and multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, depression, cognition, disability, and multimorbidity we examined the relationship between SOC and mortality, hospitalization, and decline in performance of activities of daily living (ADL). RESULTS: Subjects with high SOC scores showed a higher cumulative survival than others (Log rank = 0.004) independent of other prognostic characteristics (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62 (95% CI, 0.38-1.00), P = .049). For ADL decline, a high SOC was shown to be protective, and this effect tended to be independent from the covariates under study (adjusted odds ratio 0.56 (95% CI, 0.31-1.0), P = .05). CONCLUSION: Even very elderly persons with high SOC scores were shown to have lower mortality rates and less functional decline. These effects were independent of multimorbidity, depression, cognition, disability, and sociodemographic characteristics.

The clinical impact of valvular heart disease in a population-based cohort of subjects aged 80 and older.

BACKGROUND: In our ageing society, valvular heart diseases (VHD) have become an increasing public health problem. However, the lack of studies describing the impact of these diseases on the outcome of very old subjects makes it difficult to appreciate their real clinical burden. METHODS: Prospective, observational, population-based cohort study in Belgium. Five hundred fifty six subjects aged 80 years and older were followed up for 5.1 ± 0.25 years for mortality and 3.0 ± 0.25 years for hospitalization. Echocardiograms were performed at baseline. The Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) was calculated for each subject. RESULTS: The prevalence of moderate-to-severe VHD was 17% (n = 97). Mitral stenosis was more prevalent in women and an age-dependent increase of the prevalence of severe aortic stenosis was seen. The overall disease burden was higher in participants with VHD (median CIRS 3 [IQR 3-5] vs 4 [IQR 3-6] (P = 0.008)). Moderate-to-severe VHD, and more specifically mitral stenosis and aortic stenosis, was found to be an independent predictor of both all-cause (HR 1.42 (95% CI 1.04-1.95)) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.38-3.29)). Moderate-to-severe VHD was also found to be an independent predictor of the need for a first unplanned hospitalization (HR 1.43 (95% CI 1.06-1.94)). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of moderate-to-severe VHD was found in the very old. Moderate-to-severe VHD was identified as an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and as well for unplanned hospitalizations, independent of other structural cardiac abnormalities, ventricular function and major co-morbidities.

Airflow limitation by the Global Lungs Initiative equations in a cohort of very old adults.

The cut-off for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) defining airflow limitation for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is still contested. We assessed airflow limitation prevalence by the lower limit of normal (LLN) of Global Lungs Initiative (GLI) 2012 reference values and its predictive ability for all-cause mortality and hospitalisation in very old adults (aged ≥80 years) compared with the fixed cut-off. In a Belgian population-based prospective cohort of 411 very old adults, airflow limitation prevalence by the 5th percentile of GLI 2012 z-scores (GLI-LLN) and fixed cut-off (0.70) were compared with COPD reported by general practitioners (GPs). Survival and Cox regression multivariable analysis assessed the association of airflow limitation by both cut-offs with 5-year all-cause mortality and first hospitalisation at 3 years. 9.2% had airflow limitation by GLI-LLN and 27% by fixed cut-off, without good agreement (kappa coefficient ≤0.40) with GP-reported COPD (9%). Only airflow limitation by GLI-LLN was independently associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.10, 95% CI 1.30-3.38). FEV1/FVC <0.70 but ≥GLI-LLN (17.8%) had no significantly higher risk for mortality or hospitalisation. In a cohort of very old adults, airflow limitation by GLI-LLN has lower prevalence than by fixed cut-off, independently predicts all-cause mortality and does not miss individuals with significantly higher all-cause mortality and hospitalisation.

No relation between CMV infection and mortality in the oldest old: results from the Belfrail study.

OBJECTIVE: previous studies have demonstrated an association between cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and mortality in adults. In this prospective study, it was investigated whether these findings could be confirmed in the oldest old. METHODOLOGY: data obtained from a prospective observational cohort study (2008-2012) of 549 community-dwelling persons in Belgium aged 80 and older. RESULTS: seventy-six percent were anti-CMV seropositive of whom 37.5% had an anti-CMV IgG titre in the highest tertile (>250 IU/ml). After a median time of follow-up of 1,049 days, 127 deaths occurred. Cox proportional hazard models failed to show an association between CMV serostatus and all-cause mortality. Among persons seropositive for CMV, after adjusting for multiple confounders an anti-CMV in the highest tertile was statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.08, 2.48). CONCLUSION: in contrast to previous findings, a positive CMV serostatus was not associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality in this cohort of very old people. This is probably the result of a survival effect. CMV seropositive subjects with high anti-CMV titres were at higher risk for all-cause mortality compared with other individuals. This may reflect CMV infection reactivation to be more common in the end stages of life.

Short-term prognostic value of forced expiratory volume in 1 second divided by height cubed in a prospective cohort of people 80 years and older.

BACKGROUND: Spirometry-based parameters of pulmonary function such as forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) have prognostic value beyond respiratory morbidity and mortality. FEV1 divided by height cubed (FEV1/Ht(3)) has been found to be better at predicting all-cause mortality than the usual standardization as percentage of predicted "normal values" (FEV1%) and its use is independent of reference equations. Yet, limited data are available on the very old adults (80 years and older) and in association to other adverse health outcomes relevant for this age group. This study aims to investigate the short-term prognostic value of FEV1/Ht(3) for all-cause mortality, hospitalization, physical and mental decline in a cohort of very old adults. METHODS: In a population-based prospective cohort study of 501 very old adults in Belgium, comprehensive geriatric assessment and spirometry were performed at baseline and after 1.7 ± 0.21 years. Kaplan-Meier curves for 3-year all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates and multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, co-morbidities, anemia, high C reactive protein and creatinine levels examined the association of FEV1/Ht(3) with all-cause mortality, unplanned hospitalization and decline in mental and physical functioning. Physical functioning was assessed by activities of daily living, a battery of physical performance tests and grip strength. Mental functioning was assessed with mini mental state examination and 15 items geriatric depression scale. RESULTS: Individuals in the lowest quartile of FEV1/Ht(3) had a statistically significant increased adjusted risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-2.60) and unplanned hospitalization (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.21-2.25), as well as decline in physical (odds ratio [OR] 1.89, 95% CI 1.05-3.39) and mental functioning (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.30-4.40) compared to the rest of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of very old adults, low FEV1 expressed as FEV1/Ht(3) was found to be a short-term predictor of all-cause mortality, hospitalization and decline in physical and mental functioning independently of age, smoking status, chronic lung disease and other co-morbidities. Further research is needed on FEV1/Ht(3) as a potential risk marker for frailty and adverse health outcomes in this age group.

The glomerular filtration rate estimated by new and old equations as a predictor of important outcomes in elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases with age, and new glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations have recently been validated. The epidemiology of CKD in older individuals and the relationship between a low estimated glomerular filtration rate as calculated by these equations and adverse outcomes remains unknown. METHODS: Data from the BELFRAIL study, a prospective, population-based cohort study of 539 individuals aged 80 years and older, were used. For every participant, five equations were used to calculate estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine and/or cystatin C values: MDRD, CKD-EPIcreat, CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst, and BIS equations. The outcomes analyzed included mortality combined with the necessity of new renal replacement therapy, severe cardiovascular events, and hospitalization. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, which was an average of 2.9 years, 124 participants died, 7 required renal replacement therapy, 271 were hospitalized, and 73 had a severe cardiovascular event. The prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate values <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 differed depending on the equation used as follows: 44% (MDRD), 45% (CKD-EPIcreat), 75% (CKD-EPIcyst), 65% (CKD-EPIcreatcyst), and 80% (BIS). All of the glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations revealed that higher cardiovascular mortality was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rates and that higher probabilities of hospitalization were associated with estimated glomerular filtration rates <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. A lower estimated glomerular filtration rate did not predict a higher probability of severe cardiovascular events, except when using the CKD-EPIcyst equation. By calculating the net reclassification improvement, CKD-EPIcyst and CKD-EPIcreatcyst were shown to predict mortality (+25% and +18%) and severe cardiovascular events (+7% and +9%) with the highest accuracy. The BIS equation was less accurate in predicting mortality (-12%). CONCLUSION: Higher prevalence of CKD were found using the CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst, and BIS equations compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPIcreat equations. The new CKD-EPIcreatcyst and CKD-EPIcyst equations appear to be better predictors of mortality and severe cardiovascular events.

Association between non-registration of chronic kidney disease and mortality and cardiovascular outcome: a time-to-event analysis of retrospective primary care data.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with impaired kidney function and increased albuminuria are at risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous research has revealed that a substantial proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) do not get a registered diagnosis in the electronic health record of the general practitioner. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between non-registration of CKD and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcome. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective study in primary care. METHODS: The analyses were carried out in the INTEGO database, a general practice-based morbidity registration network in Flanders, Belgium. The study used INTEGO data from the year 2018 for all patients ≥18 years old, including 10 551 patients. To assess the risk of mortality and CVD, a time-to-event analysis was performed. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the association between non-registration and incidence of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events with mortality as a competing risk. Subgroup analyses were performed for estimated glomerular filtration rate stages (3A, 3B, 4 and 5). Multiple imputation was done following the methodology of Mamouris et al. RESULTS: Mortality was higher in patients with non-registered CKD compared with patients with registered CKD (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.41). Non-registration of CKD was not associated with an increased risk for the development of CVD (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.11). CONCLUSION: An association between non-registration and all-cause mortality was identified, although no such association was apparent for CVD.