Ultrahigh Dimensional Precision Matrix Estimation via Refitted Cross Validation.

This paper develops a new estimation procedure for ultrahigh dimensional sparse precision matrix, the inverse of covariance matrix. Regularization methods have been proposed for sparse precision matrix estimation, but they may not perform well with ultrahigh dimensional data due to the spurious correlation. We propose a refitted cross validation (RCV) method for sparse precision matrix estimation based on its Cholesky decomposition, which does not require the Gaussian assumption. The proposed RCV procedure can be easily implemented with existing software for ultrahigh dimensional linear regression. We establish the consistency of the proposed RCV estimation and show that the rate of convergence of the RCV estimation without assuming banded structure is the same as that of those assuming the banded structure in Bickel and Levina (2008b). Monte Carlo studies were conducted to access the finite sample performance of the RCV estimation. Our numerical comparison shows that the RCV estimation outperforms the existing ones in various scenarios. We further apply the RCV estimation for an empirical analysis of asset allocation.

Pictet-Spengler reaction-based biosynthetic machinery in fungi.

The Pictet-Spengler (PS) reaction constructs plant alkaloids such as morphine and camptothecin, but it has not yet been noticed in the fungal kingdom. Here, a silent fungal Pictet-Spenglerase (FPS) gene of Chaetomium globosum 1C51 residing in Epinephelus drummondhayi guts is described and ascertained to be activable by 1-methyl-L-tryptophan (1-MT). The activated FPS expression enables the PS reaction between 1-MT and flavipin (fungal aldehyde) to form "unnatural" natural products with unprecedented skeletons, of which chaetoglines B and F are potently antibacterial with the latter inhibiting acetylcholinesterase. A gene-implied enzyme inhibition (GIEI) strategy has been introduced to address the key steps for PS product diversifications. In aggregation, the work designs and validates an innovative approach that can activate the PS reaction-based fungal biosynthetic machinery to produce unpredictable compounds of unusual and novel structure valuable for new biology and biomedicine.

Putting the Patient in Patient Reported Outcomes: A Robust Methodology for Health Outcomes Assessment.

When analyzing many health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) outcomes, statistical inference is often based on the summary score formed by combining the individual domains of the HRQoL profile into a single measure. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, this paper illustrates that reliance solely on the summary score may lead to biased estimates of incremental effects, and I propose a novel two-stage approach that allows for unbiased estimation of incremental effects. The proposed methodology essentially reverses the order of the analysis, from one of 'aggregate, then estimate' to one of 'estimate, then aggregate'. Compared to relying solely on the summary score, the approach also offers a more patient-centered interpretation of results by estimating regression coefficients and incremental effects in each of the HRQoL domains, while still providing estimated effects in terms of the overall summary score. I provide an application to the estimation of incremental effects of demographic and clinical variables on HRQoL following surgical treatment for adult scoliosis and spinal deformity.

'Behold, a virgin is with HIV!' misreporting sexual behavior among infected adolescents.

In four Southern African countries where the HIV prevalence rate is among the highest in the world, 46.4% of a sample of female adolescents infected with HIV report having never engaged in sex. This would indicate either the dominance of non-sexual modes of HIV transmission or rampant misreporting of sexual behavior in the sample. We propose a method to estimate the extent of misreporting and calculate that the true percentages of virgins among the sample of HIV-infected adolescent women is 32.1%. After accounting for misreporting, the contribution of sexual modes of HIV transmission is projected as 50.4%, compared with an estimate of 35.5% if we assume no misreporting.

The effectiveness-efficiency trade-off in health care: The case of hospitals in Lombardy, Italy.

We study the presence and the magnitudes of trade-offs between health outcomes and hospitals' efficiency using a data set from Lombardy, Italy, for the period 2008-2011. Our goal is to analyze whether the pressures for cost containment may affect hospital performance in terms of population health status. Unlike previous work in this area, we analyze hospitals at the ward level so comparisons can be made across more homogeneous treatments. We focus on two different health outcomes: mortality and readmission rates. We find that there is a trade-off between mortality rates and efficiency, as more efficient hospitals have higher mortality rates. We also find, however, that more efficient hospitals have lower readmission rates. Moreover, we show that focusing the analysis at the ward level is essential, since there is evidence of higher mortality rates in general medicine and surgery, while in oncology mortality is lower in more efficient hospitals. Furthermore, we find that consideration of spatial processes is important since mortality rates are higher for hospitals subject to high degree of horizontal competition, but lower for those hospitals having strong competition but high efficiency. This implies that the interplay of efficient resource allocation and hospital competition is important for the sustainability and effectiveness of regional health care systems.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted both payer and societal perspectives over a time horizon of 5 years to measure the economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Taiwan. METHODOLOGY: A prevalence-based model was established to estimate the economic consequences of SLE after diagnosis in Taiwan. The model included four health states: (i) the three phenotypes representing mild, moderate, and severe SLE, and (ii) death. The inputs were obtained from a literature review of all the clinical trials and validated using a Delphi panel. The Delphi panel's insights included commonly used treatment strategies for patients with SLE within the Taiwanese healthcare system. The costs mentioned in this model are disease management, monitoring, transient event, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the model uncertainty. RESULTS: The number of patients with SLE in our COI model was 20,189. At diagnosis, the number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 5,916, 12,255, and 2019, respectively. The total SLE cost in Taiwan over 5 years from both payer and societal perspectives was estimated at TWD 3.9 and 47 billion, respectively. The costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspective were TWD 38,775 ($2,758) and TWD 466,119 ($33,152), respectively. CONCLUSION: The findings demonstrated that the burden of SLE in Taiwan over a time horizon of 5 years is substantially high, mainly due to the consequences of economic loss as it affects women and men during their working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Therefore, more attention should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, and further economic evaluations are necessary to assess novel treatment strategies that could control the disease.

Clinical and economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Colombia.

AIMS: Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted payer and societal perspectives over five years to measure the economic burden of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prevalence-based model was constructed to estimate costs and economic consequences for SLE patients in Colombia. The model included four health states: three phenotypes of SLE representing mild, moderate, and severe states and death. The clinical inputs were captured from the published literature and validated by the Delphi panel. Our model measured direct medical and indirect costs, including disease management, transient events, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed. RESULTS: The number of Colombian SLE patients was 37,498. The number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 5343, 28757 and 3,397, respectively. SLE-patients with moderate (Colombian pesos; COP 146 billion) and severe phenotypes (COP276 billion) incurred higher costs than those with mild phenotypes (COP2 billion), over 5 years. The total SLE cost in Colombia over five years from the payer and societal perspectives was estimated to be COP 915 billion and 8 trillion, respectively. The costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were COP 4,881,902 ($3,510) and COP 46,637,054 ($33,528), respectively. CONCLUSION: The burden of SLE in Colombia over five years is substantially high, mainly due to the consequences of economic loss because it affects women and men of working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Our COI indicated that disease management costs among patients with moderate and severe SLE were substantially higher than those among patients with a mild phenotype. Therefore, more attention should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, with the need for further economic evaluation of novel treatment strategies that help in disease control.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in United Arab Emirates.

AIMS: Our study aims to provide an enhanced comprehension of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) burden in United Arab Emirates (UAE), over a five-year period from payer and societal perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was established to simulate the economic consequences of SLE among UAE population. It included four health states: i) the three phenotypes of SLE, representing mild, moderate, and severe states, and ii) death. Clinical parameters were retrieved from previous literature and validated using the Delphi panel-the most common clinical practice within the Emirati healthcare system. We calculated the disease management, transient events, and indirect costs by macro costing. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted. RESULTS: The estimated number of SLE patients in our study was 13,359. The number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 3,914, 8,109, and 1,336, respectively. Disease management costs, including treatment of each phenotype and disease follow-up, were AED 2 billion ($0.89 billion), whereas the costs of transient events (infections, flares, and consequences of SLE-related organ damage) were AED 1 billion ($0.44 billion). The productivity loss costs among adult-employed patients with SLE in the UAE were estimated at AED 7 billion ($3.1 billion). The total SLE cost over five years from payer and societal perspectives is estimated at AED 3 ($1.3 billion) and 10 billion ($4.4 billion), respectively. Additionally, the costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were AED 45,960 ($20,610) and AED 148,468 ($66,578), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that the burden of SLE in the UAE is enormous, mainly because of the costly complications and productivity loss. More awareness should be created to limit the progression of SLE and reduce the occurrence of flares, necessitating further economic evaluations of novel treatments that could help reduce the economic consequences of SLE in the UAE.

Economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION: Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted the perspective of both payer and society over a time horizon of 5 years to measure the economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Malaysia. METHODOLOGY: Our COI model utilized a prevalence-based model to estimate the costs and economic consequences of SLE in Malaysia. The clinical parameters were obtained from published literature and validated using the Delphi panel. Direct and indirect medical costs were measured, including disease management, transient events, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed. RESULTS: The number of target Malaysian patients with SLE in the COI model was 18,121. At diagnosis, the numbers of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes were 2,582, 13,897, and 1,642, respectively. The total SLE cost in Malaysia over 5 years from both payer and society perspectives was estimated at MYR 678 million and 2 billion, respectively. The results showed a considerable cost burden due to productivity losses resulting from SLE-related morbidity and mortality. Over a 5-year time horizon, the costs per patient per year from the payer and society perspectives were MYR 7,484 ($4766) and 24,281($15,465), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated the substantial economic burden of SLE in Malaysia over a time horizon of 5 years. It affects adults of working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Our COI model indicated that disease management costs among patients with higher disease severity were higher than those among patients with a mild phenotype. Hence, more attetion should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, with the need for further economic evaluation of novel treatments that could lead to better outcomes.

Microsimulation model of the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab compared to belimumab in the United Arab Emirates.

INTRODUCTION: SLE imposes a significant morbidity and mortality as well as a substantial burden on the healthcare system. The model aimed to measure the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab implementation against belimumab as an add-on-therapy to the standard of care (SoC) over a lifetime horizon for Emirati patients. METHODOLOGY: A microsimulation model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab against belimumab (IV/SC) as an add-on therapy to SoC in a hypothetical cohort of adult Emirati patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) over a lifetime horizon. The clinical data was captured from published clinical trials as; TULIP-1, TULIP-2, BLISS-52, BLISS-76 and BLISS-SC. Health utility scores were constructed according to a linear regression model from the pooled data of the two TULIP Phase III trials of anifrolumab. Our model captures direct SLE-related medical costs from the Dubai Health Authority. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model uncertainty. RESULTS: Using BICLA as a response criterion in the Johns Hopkins cohort, anifrolumab was found to be more effective than belimumab (IV/SC; the incremental discounted QALY of anifrolumab against belimumab was 0.42). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of anifrolumab against belimumab IV and belimumab SC were AED 466,371 ($209,135) and AED 252,612 ($113,279), respectively, these ICERs are below the cost-effectiveness threshold in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (three times gross domestic product capita; AED 592,278). In the Toronto lupus cohort, the ICER of anifrolumab against belimumab IV and belimumab SC were AED 491,403 ($220,360) and AED 276,642 ($124,055), respectively (anifrolumab was a cost-effective option vs. belimumab IV and belimumab SC). CONCLUSION: The addition of anifrolumab to SoC is a cost-effective option versus belimumab for the treatment of adult patients with active, autoantibody-positive SLE, despite being allocated to SoC. Cost-effectiveness was demonstrated by a reduction in complications and organ damage, which reflected costs and outcomes.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Mexico.

AIMS: Our cost of illness study aimed to provide an estimate of the burden related to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Mexican context. METHODS: Our model was used to simulate the resource utilization and economic consequences over a period of 5 years for patients with SLE in Mexico. The model simulated four health states-three phenotypes of SLE, including mild, moderate, and severe states, and death. Clinical parameters were retrieved from the literature. Resource utilization in our model represents the most common practice in the Mexican healthcare system. These include disease management, transient events (e.g. infections, flares, and complications due to SLE-related organ damage), and indirect costs. Direct non-medical costs were not considered. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: The number of targeted Mexican SLE patients was 57,754. The numbers of SLE patients diagnosed with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes were 8,230, 44,291, and 5,233, respectively. Disease management costs, including the treatment of each phenotype and disease follow-up, were MXN 4 billion ($ 415 million); the costs of transient events (infections, flares, and consequences of SLE-related organ damage) were MXN 5 billion ($ 478 million). Productivity loss costs among adult employed Mexican patients with SLE were estimated at MXN 17 billion ($ 1.6 billion). The total SLE cost in Mexico over 5 years from the payer and societal perspectives is estimated at MXN 9 billion ($ 893 million) and 26 billion ($ 2.5 billion), respectively. Over 5 years, the costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were MXN 32,131($ 3,095) and MXN 91,661($ 8,830), respectively. CONCLUSION: The findings pointed out the substantial economic burden associated with SLE, including the costs of disease progression and SLE transient events, such as flare-ups, infections, and organ damage, in addition to productivity loss due to work capacity impairment.

A cost-consequence model of using the 21-gene assay to identify patients with early-stage node-positive breast cancer who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Patients with early-stage hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) negative invasive breast cancer with 1-3 positive lymph nodes (N1) often undergo surgical excisions followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Many patients have no benefit from ACT and receive unnecessary, costly treatment often associated with short- and long-term adverse events (AEs). Gene expression profiling (GEP) assays, such as the 21-gene assay (i.e. the Oncotype DX assay), can identify patients at higher risk for recurrence who may benefit from ACT. However, the budgetary consequence of using the Oncotype DX assay versus no GEP testing in the Netherlands is unknown. Our study therefore assessed it using a cost-consequence model. METHODS: A validated model was used to create the N1 model. The model compared the costs and consequences of using the Oncotype DX assay versus no GEP testing and MammaPrint, and subsequent ACT use with corresponding costs for chemotherapy, treatment of AEs, productivity losses, GEP testing, and treatment of recurrences, according to the Oncotype DX results. The model time horizon was 5 years. RESULTS: Costs for the total population amounted to €8.0 million (M), €16.2 M, and €9.5 M, and cost per patient amounted to €13,540, €27,455, and €16,154 for using the Oncotype DX assay, no GEP testing, and MammaPrint, respectively. Total cost savings of using the Oncotype DX assay amounted to €8.2 M versus no GEP testing and €1.5 M versus MammaPrint. Using the Oncotype DX assay would result in fewer patients receiving ACT and thus fewer AEs, sick days, and hospitalizations, leading to overall cost savings compared with no GEP testing and MammaPrint. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing Oncotype DX testing in this population can prevent unnecessary overtreatment, reducing clinical and economic burden on the patient and Dutch healthcare system.

Early-stage invasive breast cancer patients often undergo surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy. However, many of these patients have no benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy and thus receive unnecessary and costly treatment often associated with side-effects. Patients who may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy can be identified by analyzing the genomic profile of the patients' tumors using a molecular diagnostic test called the 21-gene assay (also known as Oncotype DX assay). However, the budgetary consequences of using Oncotype DX for this purpose in the Netherlands are currently unknown and, therefore, assessed using a health-economic model. The model compared the costs and consequences of using the Oncotype DX assay versus no molecular diagnostic testing and an alternative molecular diagnostic test called MammaPrint. The three diagnostic testing strategies resulted in different costs in terms of several different costing categories and were compared with one another. The total costs were lowest for the diagnostic strategy using the Oncotype DX assay, as it would result in fewer patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy compared with no molecular diagnostic testing and MammaPrint. Implementing the Oncotype DX assay as a molecular diagnostic test can identify the right patient who benefits from chemotherapy (prevent over- and undertreatment) and lead to cost-savings, reducing the clinical and economic burden on the patient and Dutch healthcare system.

Structural Assignment of the Product Ion Generated from a Natural Ciguatoxin-3C Congener, 51-Hydroxyciguatoxin-3C, and Discovery of Distinguishable Signals in Congeners Bearing the 51-Hydroxy Group.

Ciguatoxins (CTXs) stand as the primary toxins causing ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) and are essential compounds distinguished by their characteristic polycyclic ether structure. In a previous report, we identified the structures of product ions generated via homolytic fragmentation by assuming three charge sites in the mass spectrometry (MS)/MS spectrum of ciguatoxin-3C (CTX3C) using LC-MS. This study aims to elucidate the homolytic fragmentation of a ciguatoxin-3C congener. We assigned detailed structures of the product ions in the MS/MS spectrum of a naturally occurring ciguatoxin-3C congener, 51-hydroxyciguatoxin-3C (51-hydoxyCTX3C), employing liquid chromatography/quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) source. The introduction of a hydroxy substituent on C51 induced different fragmentation pathways, including a novel cleavage mechanism of the M ring involving the elimination of 51-OH and the formation of enol ether. Consequently, new cleavage patterns generated product ions at m/z 979 (C55H79O15), 439 (C24H39O7), 149 (C10H13O), 135 (C9H11O), and 115 (C6H11O2). Additionally, characteristic product ions were observed at m/z 509 (C28H45O8), 491 (C28H43O7), 481 (C26H41O8), 463 (C26H39O7), 439 (C24H39O7), 421 (C24H37O6), 171 (C9H15O3), 153 (C9H13O2), 141 (C8H13O2), and 123 (C8H11O).

Characterization of cholinesterases in the damselfish Sergeant major (Abudefduf saxatilis).

Cholinesterase (ChE) activity has been used for many years as a biomarker of exposure to organophosphate and carbamate pesticides. Recent studies have demonstrated that there could be biological factors that determine ChE type and levels; thus, juvenile Sergeant major (Abudefduf saxatilis) ChE enzymes were biochemically characterized. ChE enzymes found in the head and trunk were evaluated for their substrate preference and sensitivity to selective inhibitors. The use of the head and trunk was chosen as a strategy to reduce dissection time and to ensure sample uniformity between stations. The results indicated that there are two types of ChE enzymes in the head: acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and atypical butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) that exhibits intermediate characteristics of human AChE and BChE activities. Atypical BChE is predominantly found in the trunk. The results also indicated that the ChE activity found in A. saxatilis may be used as a biomarker in studies monitoring the Mexican Caribbean.

Projecting the potential cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for chronic kidney disease in Kuwait.

INTRODUCTION: In 2019, the prevalence of dialysis in Kuwait were 465 patient/million population, while the annual mortality rate among dialysis patients reached 12%. To improve resource allocation within the health care system, a cost-effectiveness model was conducted from a societal perspective to assess the cost-effectiveness of the use of dapagliflozin as an add-on-therapy against SoC (ramipril) among CKD patients with or without type-2 diabetes over their lifetime. METHODOLOGY: A Markov process model was utilized to assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin + ramipril versus ramipril alone on a cohort of patients with an eGFR of 25 to 75 mL/min/1.73, with or without type-2 diabetes and a urinary ACR of 200 to 5,000 over their lifetime. The model included nine health states: (i) the six stages of CKD representing stages 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5; (ii)ESRD, which represents RRT as dialysis or kidney transplant and (iii) death. Most of the clinical data were captured from the DAPA-CKD study. We assumed that the mortality risk of our study was similar to DAPA-CKD. The utility data were captured from different studies. Direct medical and indirect costs were captured from local data sources. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The difference in QALY between dapagliflozin + ramipril versus ramipril was 0.2. The difference in cost between the two arms was KWD -4,120 (-USD25750). Dapagliflozin + ramipril generate better QALYs and lower costs than ramipril in CKD patients. Dapagliflozin improved the outcomes and generated cost savings in CKD patients. CONCLUSION: Adoption of dapagliflozin + ramipril is considered to be a cost saving option in addition to the improvement in QALYs in CKD patients with or without type-2 diabetes due to its nephroprotective effect, regardless of the aetiology of CKD, which eventually leads to reduction of dialysis and the transplantation cost burden on the Kuwaiti health care system. This study was focussed only on DAPA-CKD cohort.

Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab and ipilimumab versus pembrolizumab and axitinib in advanced renal cell carcinoma with intermediate or poor prognostic risk: a Brazilian private healthcare system perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab (NIVO + IPI) and pembrolizumab plus axitinib (PEM + AXI) have demonstrated significant clinical benefits as first-line (1 L) treatments for intermediate/poor-risk advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC) patients. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of NIVO + IPI versus PEM + AXI from a Brazilian private healthcare system perspective, utilizing a novel approach to estimate comparative efficacy between the treatments. METHODS: A three-state partitioned survival model (progression-free, progressed, and death) was developed to estimate costs, life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) over a 40-year time horizon. In the absence of head-to-head comparisons between NIVO + IPI and PEM + AXI, clinical data for NIVO + IPI was obtained from CheckMate 214 (NCT02231749) and for PEM + AXI from KEYNOTE-426 (NCT02853331). A matching-adjusted indirect comparison was conducted to account for the imbalance of treatment effect modifiers between the trials. Patient characteristics, resource use, health state utilities, and costs were based on Brazilian-specific sources. Costs and health outcomes were both discounted by 5% annually in line with Brazilian guidelines. The robustness of the results was evaluated through extensive sensitivity analysis and scenario analyses. RESULTS: When comparing the matched versus unmatched OS, PFS, and TTD curves there was no noteworthy difference. NIVO + IPI was associated with cost savings (R$ 350,232), higher LYs (5.54 vs. 4.61), and QALYs (4.74 vs. 3.76) versus PEM + AXI, resulting in NIVO + IPI dominating PEM + AXI. Key model drivers were the treatment duration for PEM, NIVO, and AXI. NIVO + IPI remained dominant in all scenario analyses, which indicated that model results were robust to alternative modelling inputs or assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that NIVO + IPI is estimated to be a life-extending and potentially cost-saving 1 L treatment option when compared with PEM + AXI for intermediate/poor-risk a RCC patients in the Brazilian private healthcare system.

Cost-effectiveness of selective internal radiation therapy with Y-90 resin microspheres for intermediate- and advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in Brazil.

AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe condition with poor prognosis that places a significant burden on patients, caregivers, and healthcare systems. Selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is a treatment available to patients with HCC which addresses some of the limitations of alternative treatment options. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken into the use of SIRT using Y-90 resin microspheres for the treatment of unresectable intermediate- and late-stage HCC in Brazil. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A partitioned-survival model was developed, including a tunnel state for patients downstaged to receive treatments with curative intent. Sorafenib was the selected comparator, a common systemic treatment in Brazil and for which comparative evidence exists. Clinical data were extracted from published sources of pivotal trials, and effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-years (LYs). The analysis was conducted from the Brazilian private payer perspective and a lifetime horizon was implemented. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: LYs and QALYs were higher for SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres versus sorafenib (0.27 and 0.20 incremental LYs and QALYs, respectively) and costs were slightly higher for SIRT (R$15,864). The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was R$77,602 per QALY. The ICER was mostly influenced by parameters defining the sorafenib overall survival curve and SIRT had a 73% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of R$135,761 per QALY (3-times the per-capita gross domestic product in Brazil). Overall, sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results indicating that SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres is cost-effective compared with sorafenib. LIMITATIONS: A rapidly evolving treatment landscape in Brazil and worldwide, and the lack of local data for some variables were the main limitations. CONCLUSIONS: SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres is a cost-effective option compared with sorafenib in Brazil.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of KTE-X19 CAR T therapy versus real-world standard of care in patients with relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma post BTKi in England.

AIMS: The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of KTE-X19 versus standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) post-Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi) treatment from a UK healthcare perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A three-state partitioned survival model (pre-progression, post-progression and death) with a cycle length of one month was used to extrapolate progression-free and overall survival over a lifetime horizon. Population inputs along with KTE-X19 (brexucabtagene autoleucel) efficacy and safety data were derived from the single-arm trial ZUMA-2 (NCT02601313). The composition of SoC was informed by a literature-based meta-analysis, SoC efficacy data were obtained from the SCHOLAR-2 real-world study. Survival was modelled using standard parametric curves for SoC and a mixture-cure methodology for KTE-X19. It was assumed that patients whose disease had not progressed after five years experienced long-term remission. Costs, resource use and utility, and adverse event disutility inputs were obtained from published literature and publicly available data sources. An annual discount rate of 3.5% was applied to costs and health outcomes. Modelled outcomes for KTE-X19 and SoC included expected life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and total costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were performed. RESULTS: Estimated median survival was 5.96 years for KTE-X19 and 1.38 for SoC. Discounted LYs, QALYs and lifetime costs were 8.27, 5.99 and £385,765 for KTE-X19 versus 1.98, 1.48 and £79,742 for SoC, respectively. The KTE-X19 versus SoC cost per QALY was £67,713 and the cost per LY was £48,645. Influential scenario analyses use alternative KTE-X19 survival curves and discount rates, and shorter time horizons. CONCLUSION: Considering the survival and quality of life benefits compared to SoC, KTE-X19 for R/R MCL appears as a cost-effective treatment in the real-world UK setting.

Reflex single-gene non-invasive prenatal testing is associated with markedly better detection of fetuses affected with single-gene recessive disorders at lower cost.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the clinical benefits and achievable cost savings associated with the adoption of a carrier screen with reflex single-gene non-invasive prenatal test (sgNIPT) in prenatal care. METHOD: A decision-analytic model was developed to compare carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT (maternal carrier status and fetal risk reported together) as first-line carrier screening to the traditional carrier screening workflow (positive maternal carrier screen followed by paternal screening to evaluate fetal risk). The model compared the clinical outcomes and healthcare costs associated with the two screening methods. These results were used to simulate appropriate pricing for reflex sgNIPT. RESULTS: Reflex sgNIPT carrier screening-detected 108 of 110 affected pregnancies per 100,000 births (98.5% sensitivity), whereas traditional carrier screening-detected 46 of 110 affected pregnancies (41.5% sensitivity). The cost to identify one affected pregnancy was reduced by 62% in the reflex sgNIPT scenario compared to the traditional scenario. Adding together the testing cost savings and the savings from earlier clinical intervention made possible by reflex sgNIPT, the total cost savings was $37.6 million per 100,000 pregnancies. Based on these cost savings, we simulated appropriate reflex sgNIPT pricing range: if the cost to identify one affected pregnancy is the unit cost, carrier screening with reflex sgNIPT can be priced up to $1,859 per test (or $7,233 if sgNIPT is billed separately); if the cost per 100,000 pregnancies is the unit cost, carrier screening with sgNIPT can be priced up to $1,070 per test (or $2,336 if sgNIPT is billed separately). CONCLUSION: Using the carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT as first-line screening improves the detection of affected fetuses by 2.4-fold and can save costs for the healthcare system. A real-life experience will be needed to assess the clinical utility and exact cost savings of carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT.

Cost-effectiveness of the cell-based quadrivalent versus the standard egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Standard influenza vaccines are produced using egg-based manufacturing methods. Through the process, the resulting egg-adapted viral strains may differ from the selected vaccine strain. Cell-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing prevents egg-adaptation of the antigen which can improve vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent cell-derived influenza vaccine (QIVc) versus an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) in preventing seasonal influenza from German societal and payer perspectives. METHODS: Adapted version of the individual-based dynamic 4Flu transmission model was combined with a decision-tree to calculate the impact of QIVc versus QIVe on influenza over 20 seasons in Germany. Egg-adaptation, resulting in lower effectiveness of QIVe versus QIVc towards the H3N2 influenza strain, is sourced from a US retrospective study and assumed in 100% (base case) or 55% (conservative scenario) of years. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, productivity loss, and mortality, with associated (dis)utilities/costs, were extracted from literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0%/year. RESULTS: Replacing QIVe with QIVc in subjects aged ≥ 9 years can annually prevent 167,265 symptomatic cases, 51,114 outpatient visits, 2,091 hospitalizations, and 103 deaths in Germany. The annual number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 1,628 and healthcare costs decreased by €178 M from societal perspective. From payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €2,285 per QALY. Scenario analyses confirmed results robustness. CONCLUSIONS: The use of QIVc compared to QIVe, in the German Immunization Program, could significantly prevent outpatient visits and hospitalizations and would enable substantial savings from a societal perspective.