Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI. METHODS: A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-specific lifetime risk of developing diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy. The main data inputs used were as follows: age-, sex- and BMI-specific incidence rates of diabetes in urban India taken from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (2010-2018); age-, sex- and urban-specific rates of mortality from period lifetables reported by the Government of India (2014); and prevalence of diabetes from the Indian Council for Medical Research INdia DIABetes study (2008-2015). RESULTS: Lifetime risk (95% CI) of diabetes in 20-year-old men and women was 55.5 (51.6, 59.7)% and 64.6 (60.0, 69.5)%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk (95% CI) declined with age to 37.7 (30.1, 46.7)% at age 60 years among women and 27.5 (23.1, 32.4)% in men. Lifetime risk (95% CI) was highest among obese Indians: 86.0 (76.6, 91.5)% among 20-year-old women and 86.9 (75.4, 93.8)% among men. We identified considerably higher diabetes-free life expectancy at lower levels of BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India is alarming across the spectrum of weight and rises dramatically with higher BMI. Prevention of diabetes among metropolitan Indians of all ages is an urgent national priority, particularly given the rapid increase in urban obesogenic environments across the country. Graphical abstract.

The burden of diabetes and hypertension on healthy life expectancy in Bangladesh.

Diabetes and hypertension are among the leading causes of death in Bangladesh. This study examined hypertension, diabetes, and either or both, free life expectancy, to measure the effect of the diseases on the overall health of individuals in Bangladesh with regional variations. We utilized data from Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics 2018 for mortality and Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018 for diabetes and hypertension. The Sullivan method was employed to estimate age-specific hypertension and diabetes-free life expectancy. Altogether, 10.3% of the people aged 18-19 years lived with either diabetes or hypertension. The hypertension-free life expectancy was 40.4 years, and the diabetes-free life expectancy was 53.2 years for those aged 15-19. Overall, individuals would expect to spend 38.7% of their lives with either of the diseases. Females suffered more from hypertension and males from diabetes. Still, females suffered more from the aggregate of both. Rural people had more diabetes and hypertension-free life expectancy than those of urban. Individuals of Mymensingh had the highest life expectancy free of both diseases compared to other divisions of Bangladesh. Diabetes and hypertension affect a considerable proportion of the life of the population in Bangladesh. Policy actions are needed to guide the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of both diseases, specifically focusing on women and urban populations. Widespread health-enhancing actions need to be taken to diminish the effect of these two diseases in Bangladesh.