Interpretable machine learning guided by physical mechanisms reveals drivers of runoff under dynamic land use changes.

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their "black box" nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25 °C, and 15 °C, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

Microbiome resilience of Amazonian forests: Agroforest divergence to bacteria and secondary forest succession convergence to fungi.

An alarming and increasing deforestation rate threatens Amazon tropical ecosystems and subsequent degradation due to frequent fires. Agroforestry systems (AFS) may offer a sustainable alternative, reportedly mimicking the plant-soil interactions of the natural mature forest (MF). However, the role of microbial community in tropical AFS remains largely unknown. This knowledge is crucial for evaluating the sustainability of AFS and practices given the key role of microbes in the aboveground-belowground interactions. The current study, by comparing different AFS and successions of secondary and MFs, showed that AFS fostered distinct groups of bacterial community, diverging from the MFs, likely a result of management practices while secondary forests converged to the same soil microbiome found in the MF, by favoring the same groups of fungi. Model simulations reveal that AFS would require profound changes in aboveground biomass and in soil factors to reach the same microbiome found in MFs. In summary, AFS practices did not result in ecosystems mimicking natural forest plant-soil interactions but rather reshaped the ecosystem to a completely different relation between aboveground biomass, soil abiotic properties, and the soil microbiome.

Human land-uses homogenize stream assemblages and reduce animal biomass production.

Human land-use change is a major threat to natural ecosystems worldwide. Nonetheless, the effects of human land-uses on the structure of plant and animal assemblages and their functional characteristics need to be better understood. Furthermore, the pathways by which human land uses affect ecosystem functions, such as biomass production, still need to be clarified. We compiled a unique dataset of fish, arthropod and macrophyte assemblages from 61 stream ecosystems in two Neotropical biomes: Amazonian rainforest and Uruguayan grasslands. We then tested how the cover of agriculture, pasture, urbanization and afforestation affected the taxonomic richness and functional diversity of those three species assemblages, and the consequences of these effects for animal biomass production. Single trait categories and functional diversity were evaluated, combining recruitment and life-history, resource and habitat-use, and body size. The effects of intensive human land-uses on taxonomic and functional diversities were as strong as other drivers known to affect biodiversity, such as local climate and environmental factors. In both biomes, the taxonomic richness and functional diversity of animal and macrophyte assemblages decreased with increasing cover of agriculture, pasture, and urbanization. Human land-uses were associated with functional homogenization of both animal and macrophyte assemblages. Human land-uses reduced animal biomass through direct and indirect pathways mediated by declines in taxonomic and functional diversities. Our findings indicate that converting natural ecosystems to supply human demands results in species loss and trait homogenization across multiple biotic assemblages, ultimately reducing animal biomass production in streams.

Temperature Changes Induced by Biogeochemical and Biophysical Effects of Bioenergy Crop Cultivation.

The production of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a pivotal negative emission technology. The cultivation of dedicated crops for BECCS impacts the temperature through two processes: net CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (biogeochemical cooling) and changes in the local energy balance (biophysical warming or cooling). Here, we compare the magnitude of these two processes for key grass and tree species envisioned for large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation, following economically plausible scenarios using Earth System Models. By the end of this century, the cumulative CDR from the cultivation of eucalypt (72-112 Pg C) is larger than that of switchgrass (34-83 Pg C) because of contrasting contributions of land use change carbon emissions. The combined biogeochemical and biophysical effects are cooling (-0.26 to -0.04 °C) at the global scale, but 13-28% of land areas still have net warming signals, mainly due to the spatial heterogeneity of the biophysical effects. Our study shows that the deployment of bioenergy crop cultivation should not only be guided by the principles of maximizing yield and CDR but should also take an integrated perspective that includes all relevant Earth system feedbacks.

Land-use history impacts functional diversity across multiple trophic groups.

Land-use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. Although biodiversity often shows a delayed response to land-use change, previous studies have typically focused on a narrow range of current landscape factors and have largely ignored the role of land-use history in shaping plant and animal communities and their functional characteristics. Here, we used a unique database of 220,000 land-use records to investigate how 20-y of land-use changes have affected functional diversity across multiple trophic groups (primary producers, mutualists, herbivores, invertebrate predators, and vertebrate predators) in 75 grassland fields with a broad range of land-use histories. The effects of land-use history on multitrophic trait diversity were as strong as other drivers known to impact biodiversity, e.g., grassland management and current landscape composition. The diversity of animal mobility and resource-acquisition traits was lower in landscapes where much of the land had been historically converted from grassland to crop. In contrast, functional biodiversity was higher in landscapes containing old permanent grasslands, most likely because they offer a stable and high-quality habitat refuge for species with low mobility and specialized feeding niches. Our study shows that grassland-to-crop conversion has long-lasting impacts on the functional biodiversity of agricultural ecosystems. Accordingly, land-use legacy effects must be considered in conservation programs aiming to protect agricultural biodiversity. In particular, the retention of permanent grassland sanctuaries within intensive landscapes may offset ecological debts.

Reforestation substantially changed the soil antibiotic resistome and its relationships with metal resistance genes, mobile genetic elements, and pathogens.

Revealing the effects of reforestation on soil antibiotic resistome is essential for assessing ecosystem health, yet related studies remain scarce. Here, to determine the responses of the soil antibiotic resistome to reforestation, 30 pairs of cropland and forest soil samples were collected from southwestern China, a region with high environmental heterogeneity. All the forests had been derived from croplands more than one decade ago. The diversity and abundance of soil antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), metal resistance genes (MRGs), mobile genetic elements (MGEs), and pathogens were determined by metagenomic sequencing and real-time PCR. The results showed that reforestation significantly increased soil microbial abundance and the contents of Cu, total carbon, total nitrogen, total organic carbon, and ammonium nitrogen. Nevertheless, it decreased the contents of soil Zn, Ba, nitrate nitrogen, and available phosphorus. The main soil ARGs identified in this region were vancomycin, multidrug, and bacitracin resistance genes. Reforestation significantly increased the soil ARG abundance by 62.58%, while it decreased the ARG richness by 16.50%. Reforestation exerted no significant effects on the abundance of heavy metal resistance genes and pathogens, but it doubled the abundance of MGEs. Additionally, reforestation substantially decreased the co-occurrence frequencies of ARGs with MRGs and pathogens. In contrast, the correlation between ARGs and MGEs was greatly enhanced by reforestation. Similarly, the correlations between soil ARG abundance and environmental factors were also strengthened by reforestation. These findings suggest that reforestation can substantially affect the soil antibiotic resistome and exerts overall positive effects on soil health by decreasing ARG richness, providing critical information for assessing the effects of "grain for green" project on soil health.

An integrated model chain for future flood risk prediction under land-use changes.

Flood is a very destructive natural disaster in the world that is strongly influenced by land-use change. Therefore, a comprehensive flood risk modeling considering the change in land-use is essential for understanding, predicting, and mitigating flood risk. However, most existing single modeling ignored the derivative effect of land-use change, which may reduce the reality of results. To further address the issue, this study presented an integrated model chain by coupling the Markov-FLUS model, the multiple linear regression and the improved TOPSIS model. By applying it in Guangdong Province, the future land-use simulation, spatialization of hazard-bearing bodies, and determination of flood risk were realized. The results show that the coupled model chain allows for good prediction of flood risk under different scenarios, which could be expressed by flood risk composite index (FRSI). In the natural growth scenario, the flood risk will show markedly increasing trend from 2020 to 2030 (FRSI = 2.06), with the high and highest risk zones will expand significantly. Spatially, these increased high flood risk zones mainly distributed on the periphery of existing built-up lands. On the contrary, the flood risk in ecological protection scenario tends to stabilize (FRSI = 1.98), which may be a reference for alternative development paths. These dynamic information identified by this model chain provides a deeper insight into the spatiotemporal characteristics of future high flood risk areas, which can facilitate reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region. In further applications, more efficient spatialization models and climate factor are suggested to be introduced.

Organic farming offers promising mitigation potential in dairy systems without compromising economic performances.

There is a lack of clear empirical evidence towards the lower carbon footprint of organic food products, in particular in the dairy sector. Until now, small sample sizes, lack of properly defined counterfactual and the omission of land-use related emissions have hindered comparisons of organic and conventional products. Here we bridge these gaps by mobilizing a uniquely large dataset of 3074 French dairy farms. Using propensity score weighting, we find that the carbon footprint of organic milk is 19% (95%CI = [10%-28%]) lower than its conventional counterpart without indirect land-use change and 11% (95%CI = [5%-17%]) lower with indirect land use changes. In both production systems, farms' profitability is similar. We simulate the consequences of the Green deal target of 25% of agricultural land devoted to organic dairy farming and show that this policy would reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of the French dairy sector by 9.01-9.64%.

Integrating Habitat Availability, Permeability, and Configuration in a Model of Landscape Connectivity: The Contribution of Habitat's Site-to-Site.

The landscape configuration, the permeability of the matrix and the possibility of random dispersal movement of species are essential to robust modeling of the landscape connectivity. To represent this condition, we report a spatial model that integrates graph theory, circuit theory, metrics of habitat availability and includes a temporal aspect by looking into land use changes over time. We identify the possibilities of movement of species site-to-site over time in the landscape, taking into account not only the importance of sites of focal habitats, but also the potential relevance of the matrix for landscape connectivity. The modeling was applied to two rural landscapes, considering three functional groups of mammals with different resource-feeding and habitat requirements. The model indicated multiple and new dispersal non-linear potential routes to each group of mammals, considering its specific requirement to obtain resources and its movement pattern on the agricultural matrix.

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land-use/cover change scenarios in Mexico.

There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Effects of habitat disturbance on the reproductive ecology of Arum pictum ssp. sagittifolium: from pollination to seedling recruitment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The loss of natural habitats may strongly affect the fitness of plants that depend on animals for reproduction. However, very little is known regarding the differential effects of habitat disturbance on the distinct phases of the reproductive cycle of plants, especially in non-rewarding species. METHODS: We assessed the effects of habitat disturbance on the entire reproductive cycle of Arum pictum ssp. sagittifolium, a species with deceptive pollination that is endemic to the western Mediterranean Basin. For this, we performed hand-pollination and bagging experiments, evaluated the role of pollinators and dispersers on reproduction, and estimated seedling recruitment in three natural and three disturbed populations (according to their surrounding natural habitat) in Mallorca Island. KEY RESULTS: Pollinators were sphaerocerid flies (mainly Coproica, with ~50 % of visits) and staphylinid beetles, and were required for sexual reproduction. Habitat disturbance differently affected the reproductive phases of A. pictum ssp. sagittifolium. Habitat disturbance had a positive effect on Shannon pollinator diversity (but not on pollinator richness), and total pollinator and Coproica abundance were three times higher in disturbed habitats, where overall seed production was also ~30 % higher in natural habitats. Seed production increased with Coproica abundance, but only in natural habitats. Seed dispersers of A. pictum ssp. sagittifolium were birds, mainly Sylvia atricapilla. Although habitat disturbance did not influence disperser diversity or abundance, the majority of seedlings appeared under adult plants and in natural habitats. CONCLUSIONS: Overall recruitment was higher in natural habitats, but this effect could have been masked by only assessing pollinator and disperser numbers, as processes related to the quality of these interactions might be influencing fitness. Our study highlights the need to study different reproductive phases and their multiple components and processes to properly understand the effects of habitat disturbance on the regeneration of plant populations.

Impacts of land-use changes on the variability of microbiomes in soil profiles.

BACKGROUND: The conversion of arable land to grassland and/or forested land is a common strategy of restoration because the development of plant communities can inhibit the erosion of soil, increase biodiversity and improve associated ecosystem services. The vertical profiles of microbial communities, however, have not been well characterized and their variability after land conversion is not well understood. We assessed the effects of the conversion of arable land (AL) to grassland (GL) and forested land (FL) on bacterial communities as old as 29 years in 0-200-cm profiles of a Chinese Mollisol. RESULTS: The soil in AL has been a stable ecosystem and changes in the assembly of soil microbiomes tended to be larger in the topsoil. The soil properties and microbial biodiversity of arable land were larger following revegetation and reforestation. The conversion caused a more complex coupling among microbes, and negative interactions and average connectivity were stronger in the 0-20-cm layers in GL and in the 20-60-cm layers in FL. The land use dramatically influenced the assembly of the microbial communities more in GL than AL and FL. The bacterial diversity was an important component of soil multinutrient cycling in the profiles and microbial functions were not as affected by changes in land use. CONCLUSION: The spatial variation of the microbiomes provided critical information on below-ground soil ecology and the ability of the soil to provide crucial ecosystem services. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

The importance of Legal Reserves for protecting the Pantanal biome and preventing agricultural losses.

Considering scenarios of future changes in land use have the potential to support policy-makers in drafting environmental laws to reconcile the demands of multiple land uses. The Pantanal, one of the largest wetlands in the world, has been undergoing rapid land use changes, and does not yet have any integrated environmental legislation on Legal Reserve for entire region (LR - minimum percentage of native vegetation required within private properties). The aim of this paper was to generate future vegetation loss scenarios for the Pantanal based on four LR values: (i) BAU: Business as usual, which considers existing laws: Native Vegetation Protection Law and State Decree; (ii) LRE: LR elimination owing to a bill recently proposed; (iii) LR50: which considers the bill proposing 50% of LR for the Pantanal; and (iv) LR80: our proposed levels of 80% of LR for the lowlands and 35% for the plateau (following values in the Amazon). Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we estimated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers. Our results show that LRE would increase native vegetation loss in the Pantanal by as much as 139% when compared to the BAU, whereas increasing LR levels would reduce conversion values by 29% (LR80). Elimination of the LR would increase soil erosion and sediment production by up to 7% and 10%, respectively, compared to BAU. Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we estimated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers with our data showing more than 90% of the sediment transported to the lowland originating from the plateau. The LR80 indicates a reduction in soil nutrient replacement costs of 10% compared to BAU, while in the LR50 these costs decrease by 1.5%, and in the LRE would increase of 8%. Our results show that abolishing current protections would have substantial impacts on avulsion processes, on several economic activities (tourism, fishery, cattle raising, etc.) and negative impacts for biodiversity conservation and would bring losses to agriculture in the Pantanal. Hence, our study brings clearly evidence of LR importance and need to expand it in this sensitive wetland.

Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.

Declining population trends of European mountain birds.

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species' distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south-western (Iberia) and south-central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (-7%) during 2002-2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant -10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Farmers' perceptions of agricultural land use changes in Nepal and their major drivers.

Historical trends show that the total area of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over time, but few studies have addressed the causative drivers underlying this change. Evaluating the perceptions of farmers is an effective tool for addressing this issue because it reflects the full range of drivers associated with changes in land use. This study utilizes historical agricultural area, population, and climate data for 1910-2010, combined with a series of applied household surveys and focus group discussions to assess farmers' perceptions of these changes and identify the major drivers. The paired t-test was employed to measure differences between various groups of drivers. The total area of agricultural land in Nepal has expanded rapidly since 1910, more intensively in the southern (Tarai) and central (Hill) ecological regions of the country, and has decreased slightly near large cities in recent decades. Farmers' perceptions show that socioeconomic variables were considered to be the crucial drivers of changes in agricultural land use. The three other major drivers were grouped as: neighborhood, climate-topography, and policy drivers. In particular, farmers pointed to the high level of population growth (93.96%) as the main factor underlying the changes, and the majority of drivers are associated with this variable. Access to roads (77.36%), urbanization (33.77%), government policies (23.58%), and remittance impact (16.79%) are other notable triggering variables. The paired t-test results equating variables from different groups of drivers and ecological regions indicate varied significance (p-values range from 0.004 to 0.983). Our analysis confirms that the synergy between social and natural observations can be integrated to obtain research findings that identify scientific and social issues. The interplay between the drivers should be emphasized in developing plans for sustainable agricultural land use management.

Land use change: A key ecological disturbance declines soil microbial biomass in dry tropical uplands.

Land use changes such as transformation of natural landscapes, forest degradation and increase in croplands due to human activities are considered amongst the most influential ecological disturbances affecting soil, ecosystems and environmental sustainability. The previous works from India are limited to show that soil disturbances influence abiotic and biotic factors along a rural-urban gradient. However, variations in soil microbial biomass (SMB) -C, -N and -P quantity due to land use changes at different soil depths across different land use types remain poorly understood on comparative ground. We investigated the impact of land use types on soil properties and SMB -C, -N and -P levels across different soil depths (0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm) in dry tropical uplands. Four land use types/covers (natural forest, mixed forest, savanna and agriculture land) were selected. The present study is based on two hypotheses: i) different land use types affect SMB levels in top surface soil (0-10 cm), but have less effects in deeper soil profiles (20-30 cm); and ii) SMB levels in top surface soil are highest in natural forest, followed by mixed forest and then savanna and agriculture lands. ANOVA showed significant differences in SMB values due to land use covers (P < 0.001), soil depths (P < 0.001) and land use types × soil depths interaction (P < 0.001). Although, there had no effect of land use types on SMB levels in deeper soil profiles (20-30 cm) but soil parameters (soil pH, soil moisture, soil temperature, total-N, C/N ratio and organic-C) significantly affect SMB levels in top surface (0-10 cm) soil. The study suggests that SMB may be considered as a key indicator of soil fertility index, while land use practices are a major cause for loss of microbial community composition/biomass in dry tropical upland soil.

Biodiversity loss along a gradient of deforestation in Amazonian agricultural landscapes.

Assessing how much management of agricultural landscapes, in addition to protected areas, can offset biodiversity erosion in the tropics is a central issue for conservation that still requires cross-taxonomic and landscape-scale studies. We measured the effects of Amazonia deforestation and subsequent land-use intensification in 6 agricultural areas (landscape scale), where we sampled plants and 4 animal groups (birds, earthworms, fruit flies, and moths). We assessed land-use intensification with a synthetic index based on landscape metrics (total area and relative percentages of land uses, edge density, mean patch density and diversity, and fractal structures at 5 dates from 1990 to 2007). Species richness decreased consistently as agricultural intensification increased despite slight differences in the responses of sampled groups. Globally, in moderately deforested landscapes species richness was relatively stable, and there was a clear threshold in biodiversity loss midway along the intensification gradient, mainly linked to a drop in forest cover and quality. Our results suggest anthropogenic landscapes with high-quality forest covering >40 % of the surface area may prevent biodiversity loss in Amazonia.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Nutrient availability in the Setiu Wetland Lagoon, Malaysia: trends, possible causes and environmental impacts.

The objective of this study was to identify the spatial and temporal variabilities of selected nutrients in the Setiu Wetlands Lagoon (SWL), Malaysia. Water samples were collected quarterly at ten monitoring sites. This study presents results from a 10-year field investigation (2003 to 2010 and 2014 to 2015) of water quality in the SWL. For the spatial pattern, four clusters were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis. Analysis of the temporal trend shows that the high total suspended solid loading in 2010 was due to large-scale land clearing upstream of the SWL. The enrichment of ammonium after 2010 could plausibly be due to land-based aquaculture diffuse discharges. In 2005-2007, expansion of oil palm plantations within the Setiu catchment had doubled the phosphorus concentration in the SWL. The natural and anthropogenic alterations of the lagoon inlets profoundly influenced the spatial distribution patterns of nutrients in the SWL. These results suggest that intense anthropogenic disturbances close to the SWL accounted for the water quality deterioration.