Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic markedly changed human mobility patterns, necessitating epidemiological models that can capture the effects of these changes in mobility on the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)1. Here we introduce a metapopulation susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model that integrates fine-grained, dynamic mobility networks to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in ten of the largest US metropolitan areas. Our mobility networks are derived from mobile phone data and map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighbourhoods (or census block groups) to points of interest such as restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 56,945 census block groups to 552,758 points of interest with 5.4 billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple SEIR model can accurately fit the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in the behaviour of the population over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of 'superspreader' points of interest account for a large majority of the infections, and that restricting the maximum occupancy at each point of interest is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2-8 solely as the result of differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce their mobility as sharply, and that the points of interest that they visit are more crowded and are therefore associated with higher risk. By capturing who is infected at which locations, our model supports detailed analyses that can inform more-effective and equitable policy responses to COVID-19.

Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control.

As countries in Europe gradually relaxed lockdown restrictions after the first wave, test-trace-isolate strategies became critical to maintain the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at low levels1,2. Reviewing their shortcomings can provide elements to consider in light of the second wave that is currently underway in Europe. Here we estimate the rate of detection of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in France after lockdown through the use of virological3 and participatory syndromic4 surveillance data coupled with mathematical transmission models calibrated to regional hospitalizations2. Our findings indicate that around 90,000 symptomatic infections, corresponding to 9 out 10 cases, were not ascertained by the surveillance system in the first 7 weeks after lockdown from 11 May to 28 June 2020, although the test positivity rate did not exceed the 5% recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO)5. The median detection rate increased from 7% (95% confidence interval, 6-8%) to 38% (35-44%) over time, with large regional variations, owing to a strengthening of the system as well as a decrease in epidemic activity. According to participatory surveillance data, only 31% of individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms consulted a doctor in the study period. This suggests that large numbers of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 did not seek medical advice despite recommendations, as confirmed by serological studies6,7. Encouraging awareness and same-day healthcare-seeking behaviour of suspected cases of COVID-19 is critical to improve detection. However, the capacity of the system remained insufficient even at the low epidemic activity achieved after lockdown, and was predicted to deteriorate rapidly with increasing incidence of COVID-19 cases. Substantially more aggressive, targeted and efficient testing with easier access is required to act as a tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The testing strategy will be critical to enable partial lifting of the current restrictive measures in Europe and to avoid a third wave.

Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence to an NPI is now the result of individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence within an epidemiological model. When the disease is endemic, we find that our model has multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence. Surprisingly, for the equilibrium with partial NPI adherence, the number of infections is independent of the transmission rate. Therefore, in that regime, a change in the rate of pathogen transmission, e.g., due to another (mandated) NPI or a new variant, has no effect on endemic infection levels. On the other hand, we show that vaccination successfully decreases endemic infection levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces the number of susceptibles at equilibrium when there is partial adherence. From a game-theoretic perspective, we find that highly effective NPIs lead at most to partial adherence. As this effectiveness decreases, partially effective NPIs initially lead to increases in population-level adherence, especially if the risk is high enough. However, a completely ineffective NPI results in no adherence. Furthermore, we identify parameter regions where the individual incentives may not align with those of society as a whole. Overall, our findings illustrate complexities that can arise due to behavioral-epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures to avoid more pessimistic population-level outcomes.

Prosocial nudges and visual indicators increase social distancing, but authoritative nudges do not.

Social distancing reduces the transmission of COVID-19 and other airborne diseases. To test different ways to increase social distancing, we conducted a field experiment at a major US airport using a system that presented color-coded visual indicators on crowdedness. We complemented those visual indicators with nudges commonly used to increase COVID-19-preventive behaviors. Analyzing data from 57,146 travelers, we find that visual indicators and nudges significantly affected social distancing. Introducing visual indicators increased the share of travelers practicing social distancing, and this positive effect was enhanced by introducing nudges focused on personal benefits ("protect yourself") and public benefits ("protect others"). Conversely, an authoritative nudge referencing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ("don't break CDC COVID-19 guidelines") did not change social distancing behavior. Our results demonstrate that visual indicators and informed nudges can boost social distancing and potentially curb the spread of contagious diseases.

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one's core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people's existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges.

Synthesis and Assembly of Virtual Collaborations.

The interplay between academics and society within the environment of the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on scientists across the world, prompting reevaluation of how virtual toolboxes can be used to support responsible collaborative research practices. We provide awareness of virtual resources and activities that enable scientific discovery using safe and efficient practices.

Association between gut microbiota development and allergy in infants born during pandemic-related social distancing restrictions.

BACKGROUND: Several hypotheses link reduced microbial exposure to increased prevalence of allergies. Here we capitalize on the opportunity to study a cohort of infants (CORAL), raised during COVID-19 associated social distancing measures, to identify the environmental exposures and dietary factors that contribute to early life microbiota development and to examine their associations with allergic outcomes. METHODS: Fecal samples were sequenced from infants at 6 (n = 351) and repeated at 12 (n = 343) months, using 16S sequencing. Published 16S data from pre-pandemic cohorts were included for microbiota comparisons. Online questionnaires collected epidemiological information on home environment, healthcare utilization, infant health, allergic diseases, and diet. Skin prick testing (SPT) was performed at 12 (n = 343) and 24 (n = 320) months of age, accompanied by atopic dermatitis and food allergy assessments. RESULTS: The relative abundance of bifidobacteria was higher, while environmentally transmitted bacteria such as Clostridia was lower in CORAL infants compared to previous cohorts. The abundance of multiple Clostridia taxa correlated with a microbial exposure index. Plant based foods during weaning positively impacted microbiota development. Bifidobacteria levels at 6 months of age, and relative abundance of butyrate producers at 12 months of age, were negatively associated with AD and SPT positivity. The prevalence of allergen sensitization, food allergy, and AD did not increase over pre-pandemic levels. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental exposures and dietary components significantly impact microbiota community assembly. Our results also suggest that vertically transmitted bacteria and appropriate dietary supports may be more important than exposure to environmental microbes alone for protection against allergic diseases in infancy.

Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity.

Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour. Policymakers must balance a complex spectrum of objectives, suggesting a need for quantitative tools. Whether health services might be 'overwhelmed' has emerged as a key consideration. Here we show how costly interventions, such as taxes or subsidies on behaviour, can be used to exactly align individuals' decision making with government preferences even when these are not aligned. In order to achieve this, we develop a nested optimisation algorithm of both the government intervention strategy and the resulting equilibrium behaviour of individuals. We focus on a situation in which the capacity of the healthcare system to treat patients is limited and identify conditions under which the disease dynamics respect the capacity limit. We find an extremely sharp drop in peak infections at a critical maximum infection cost in the government's objective function. This is in marked contrast to the gradual reduction of infections if individuals make decisions without government intervention. We find optimal interventions vary less strongly in time when interventions are costly to the government and that the critical cost of the policy switch depends on how costly interventions are.

Evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies.

There are many contrasting results concerning the effectiveness of Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategies in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread. To shed light on this debate, we developed a novel static-temporal multiplex network characterizing both the regular (static) and random (temporal) contact patterns of individuals and a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated with historical COVID-19 epidemiological data. We estimated that the TTI strategy alone could not control the disease spread: assuming R0 = 2.5, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 24.5%. Increased test capacity and improved contact trace efficiency only slightly improved the effectiveness of the TTI. We thus investigated the effectiveness of the TTI strategy when coupled with reactive social distancing policies. Limiting contacts on the temporal contact layer would be insufficient to control an epidemic and contacts on both layers would need to be limited simultaneously. For example, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 68.1% when the reactive distancing policy disconnects 30% and 50% of contacts on static and temporal layers, respectively. Our findings highlight that, to reduce the overall transmission, it is important to limit contacts regardless of their types in addition to identifying infected individuals through contact tracing, given the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Context Matters: Patterns in Physical Distancing Behavior Across Situations and Over Time During the Covid-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Physical distancing is an effective preventative measure during respiratory infectious disease outbreaks. Prior studies on distancing behaviors have largely ignored context characteristics (physical, social) and time. PURPOSE: We investigated patterns in physical distancing over time and across situations, as well as sociodemographic variation herein. METHODS: We employed data from five rounds of a cohort study conducted throughout the pandemic by the Dutch public health institute (RIVM; N ≈ 50.000 per round). We conducted Latent Class Analyses to investigate patterns of physical distancing in a range of situations, followed by regression models to investigate associations between distancing behavior and sociodemographic and context characteristics. RESULTS: Participants differed in their general tendency to adhere to distancing guidelines across situations, but there were also substantial differences in distancing behavior between situations, particularly at work, with friends and family and outdoors. Distancing at work was strongly associated with work environment characteristics. Younger age groups reported less distancing behavior, particularly with close relations (friends or family) and at work. In periods when the pandemic situation was most severe, people adhered more strongly to distancing guidelines and age differences were most pronounced during these periods. CONCLUSIONS: Physical and social context matters for physical distancing, highlighting the importance of developing strategies for pandemic preparedness that improve opportunities for physical distancing (e.g., reducing crowding, one-way traffic) and accommodate young people to safely meet even in times of high pandemic severity and lockdowns. Future studies should account for the physical and social context in which distancing behavior is observed.

Physical distancing helps reduce the transmission of infectious diseases, but people's opportunities and willingness to keep distance from others can vary between situations. In a survey conducted at various time points during the Covid-19 pandemic, The Dutch National Public Health Institute asked people about their distancing behavior in various such situations, such as at work, when grocery shopping or when visiting with friends and family. We found that people mainly differed in their general tendency to keep distance from others: some individuals were more likely to keep distance than others in all situations. However, there were also substantial differences in distancing behavior at work, with friends and family and outdoors. Differences in distancing at work resulted from the specific work context and activities people had to perform. Younger age groups reported less distancing behavior in social situations such as when meeting with friends and family or with colleagues. In periods when the pandemic situation was most severe, people were more likely to keep their distance from others and there were larger age differences in distancing behavior. These results highlight the importance of improving people's opportunities to keep their distance from others and safely meet in times of a severe pandemic.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Persons Living with HIV in Western Washington: Examining Lived Experiences of Social Distancing Stress, Personal Buffers, and Mental Health.

Pandemic-related stressors may disproportionately affect the mental health of people with HIV (PWH). Stratified, purposive sampling was used to recruit 24 PWH who participated in a quantitative survey on COVID-19 experiences for in-depth interviews (IDIs). IDIs were conducted by Zoom, audio recorded and transcribed. Thematic analysis was used to develop an adapted stress-coping model. Participants experienced acute stress following exposure events and symptoms compatible with COVID-19. Social isolation and job loss were longer-term stressors. While adaptive coping strategies helped promote mental health, participants who experienced multiple stressors simultaneously often felt overwhelmed and engaged in maladaptive coping behaviors. Healthcare providers were important sources of social support and provided continuity in care and referrals to mental health and social services. Understanding how PWH experienced stressors and coped during the COVID-19 pandemic can help healthcare providers connect with patients during future public health emergencies, address mental health needs and support adaptive coping strategies.

Evaluating the dynamic interplay of social distancing policies regarding airborne pathogens through a temporal interaction-driven model that uses real-world and synthetic data.

OBJECTIVE: The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has exhibited diverse patterns of spread across countries and communities, emphasizing the need to consider the underlying population dynamics in modeling its progression and the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in combating viral transmission within human communities. Such an understanding requires accurate modeling of the interplay between the community dynamics and the disease propagation dynamics within the community. METHODS: We build on an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks that we have defined. Using the model, we evaluate the effectiveness of temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal social distancing policies. Temporal social distancing involves a pure dilation of the timeline while preserving individual activity potential and thus prolonging the period of interaction; spatial distancing corresponds to social distancing pods; and spatiotemporal distancing pertains to the situation in which fixed subgroups of the overall group meet at alternate times. We evaluate these social distancing policies over real-world interactions' data and over history-preserving synthetic temporal random networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the policies for the disease's with different number of initial patients, corresponding to either the phase in the progression of the infection through a community or the number of patients infected together at the initial infection event. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with the meetings' duration. RESULTS: Our results demonstrate the superiority of decreasing social interactions (i.e., time dilation) within the community over partial isolation strategies, such as the spatial distancing pods and the spatiotemporal distancing strategy. In addition, we found that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., pathogens that require a longer exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This result is surprising since the pathogens may follow different paths. However, we demonstrate that the dilation of the timeline considerably slows the spread of the slower pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.

Physical distance to sensory-motor landmarks predicts language function.

Auditory language comprehension recruits cortical regions that are both close to sensory-motor landmarks (supporting auditory and motor features) and far from these landmarks (supporting word meaning). We investigated whether the responsiveness of these regions in task-based functional MRI is related to individual differences in their physical distance to primary sensorimotor landmarks. Parcels in the auditory network, that were equally responsive across story and math tasks, showed stronger activation in individuals who had less distance between these parcels and transverse temporal sulcus, in line with the predictions of the "tethering hypothesis," which suggests that greater proximity to input regions might increase the fidelity of sensory processing. Conversely, language and default mode parcels, which were more active for the story task, showed positive correlations between individual differences in activation and sensory-motor distance from primary sensory-motor landmarks, consistent with the view that physical separation from sensory-motor inputs supports aspects of cognition that draw on semantic memory. These results demonstrate that distance from sensorimotor regions provides an organizing principle of functional differentiation within the cortex. The relationship between activation and geodesic distance to sensory-motor landmarks is in opposite directions for cortical regions that are proximal to the heteromodal (DMN and language network) and unimodal ends of the principal gradient of intrinsic connectivity.

The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective.

BACKGROUND: Social distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts. METHODS: We combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: More stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (ß = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (ß = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz's cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (ß = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (ß = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (ß = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (ß = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect. CONCLUSIONS: Social distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values.

Impact of social distancing from the COVID-19 pandemic on the immuno-inflammatory response of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults, as the population considered at increased risk for severe COVID-19, were the most impacted by social isolation. Thus, this study aimed to assess the salivary immune/inflammatory response of older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A cohort of 11 older adults (mean age 66.8 ± 6.1) was followed at three different time points: before (S1) and after 6 (S2) and 20 months (S3) of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Unstimulated saliva samples were obtained to assess the levels of antibodies (secretory IgA, IgG and IgM) by ELISA and cytokines (IL-2, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10, TSLP, IFN-γ, TNF-α) by multiplex analysis. Significant differences were evaluated using the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn's post-test. RESULTS: None volunteer presented periodontal disease or caries. All volunteers received at least two doses of the COVID-19 vaccines after S2 and before S3. A tendency to increase salivary levels of SIgA and IgM at S2 and of IgG at S3 were observed compared to the values found at S1 and S2. Significantly decreased levels of IL-2 and IL-5 were found at S2 and S3 (p < 0.001) time points. Lower levels of IFN-γ were found at S2 as compared to the values observed at S1 (p < 0.01). A significant decrease in the IFN-γ/IL-10 ratio was found at S2 (p < 0.01). When assessing the Th1/Th2 ratios, a significant decrease was found in the IFN-γ/TSLP ratio at S2 (p < 0.001) and S3 (p < 0.001) when compared to the values at S1. In addition, a significant increase was observed in the TNF-α/IL-5 ratio at S2 (p < 0.001) and S3 (p < 0.001) in comparison to the values at S1. In a similar way, an increase in the TNF-α/IL-6 ratio (Fig. 5E) was observed at S3 (p < 0.001) when compared to the values at S1. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the impact of COVID-19-induced social isolation on immune/inflammatory responses in the upper airway mucosa, particularly those present in oral cavity, of older adults. It demonstrates that a controlled shift in Th1 and Th2 immune responses, both during infection and post-vaccination, can create favorable conditions to combat viral infections without exacerbating the immune response or worsening the pathology.

Unpacking the impact of COVID-19 on child immunization: evidence from Ghana.

BACKGROUND: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments implemented social distancing regulations to limit the spread of the disease. Some health experts warned that these measures could negatively affect access to essential health services, such as routine childhood immunizations. Others noted that without these regulations, COVID-19 cases would increase, leading to overburdened health systems. METHODS: We analyze four years (2018-2021) of monthly administrative data on childhood immunizations in all administrative districts in Ghana and exploit variations in social distancing regulations across districts. Given variations in social distancing regulations across Ghanaian districts, we can further differentiate between the effect of public lockdowns and the effect of the pandemic. RESULTS: We find that child immunizations in Ghana declined by 6% during the public lockdown in April 2020, but the country compensated with higher vaccination rates starting in June, and immunization services recovered to pre-pandemic growth levels by 2021. Time-critical vaccines, such as polio, were not affected at all. We do find a substantially larger disruption in April 2020 (14%) and a slower recovery in 2020 in the 40 lockdown-affected districts. Interestingly, vaccination rates already decreased in February and March by about 5% before the public lockdown and before the pandemic had reached Ghana, but with the pandemic already spreading globally and in the news. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the negative effect on child immunization was less severe and shorter than predicted by experts. Fear of COVID-19 and delayed vaccination campaigns had a substantial impact on childhood immunization while rising COVID-19 cases and moderate social distancing regulations did not seem to affect immunization rates.

Social contact and the perceived impact of social distancing on health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic among community dwelling older adults taking part in the OPAL cohort study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and reduced social contact may have affected older adults' health. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the perceived impact of social distancing on older adults' health and explore the association between social contact and health outcomes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the OPAL cohort study. SUBJECTS: Community dwelling older adults. METHODS: We sent questionnaires to participants of an existing cohort study (n = 4328). Questions included the amount and type of social contact, and how often they went outside. Participants rated the impact of social distancing on their health. Sociodemographic factors and quality of life were available from previous questionnaires. We examined quality of life prior to and during the pandemic and explored the cross-sectional relationship between social contact and health using logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 3856/4328 (89%) questionnaires returned. EQ-5D scores changed little compared to pre-pandemic scores but 25% of participants reported their overall health had worsened. The telephone was the most used method of contact (78%). Video calls were used least with 35% of participants not using them or having no access to them. 13% of respondents never went outside. Lower levels of contact were associated with increased risk of reporting worse health (Odds ratio (OR) 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.08)). Those experiencing financial strain and who spent less time outside experienced the largest increase in risk of reporting perceived worsened overall health. Those reporting a strain to get by financially were 4 times more likely to report worsened health than those who described themselves as quite comfortably off (OR 4.00 (95% CI 1.86-8.16)). Participants who reported never going outside were twice as likely to report worsened health compared to those who went outside daily (OR 2.00 (95% CI 1.57-2.54)). CONCLUSIONS: Less contact with other people was associated with perceived worsening in overall health. Although many older people reported using online technology, such as video calls, a substantial proportion were not using them. Older people facing financial strain were more likely to report worsened health, highlighting the impact of social inequalities during the pandemic. Going outside less was also associated with perceived worsened health.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries.

PURPOSE: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor - COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker - OxCGRT. METHODS: NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5-25, and C4-C6, weeks 35-52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). RESULTS: During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. CONCLUSION: In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

The impact of UK social distancing guidance on the ability to access support and the health and wellbeing of disabled people during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative exploration.

BACKGROUND: The sudden introduction of social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant lifestyle changes for the UK population. People living with physical disabilities were deemed to be at greater risk of complications following COVID-19 infection and were subjected to stricter social distancing guidelines. But gaps remain in our understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions affected the ability to access support, health and wellbeing of people with physical disabilities. Such understanding is vital to ensure equitable future pandemic preparedness for people living with physical disabilities. METHODS: We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 31 people living in the UK between May 2020 and January 2022. All participants self-identified as having a physical disability that affected their mobility, sight, or hearing. We analysed the data using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Six themes were identified that described the impact of the pandemic on ability to access support, health and wellbeing: (i) adaptations to healthcare provision led to difficulties in managing health and wellbeing; (ii) exacerbations of inequalities in access to public space due to social distancing guidelines; (iii) experiences of hostility from able-bodied people; (iv) loss of social lives and encounters; (v) difficulties maintaining distance from others and subsequent fear of infection and (vi) strategies to support wellbeing and coping when confined to the home. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing health and social inequalities experienced by disabled people. The disproportionate impact of the pandemic on service provision and social connections resulted in challenging circumstances for disabled people who faced unmet medical needs, deteriorating health, and at times, hostile public spaces. Disabled people's experiences need to be incorporated into future pandemic or health-related emergency planning to ensure equality of access to services and public spaces to ensure their health and wellbeing is supported and maintained.