Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets.

Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key PM2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NOx emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries. METHODS: Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes. RESULTS: On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.

Safer Roads Owing to Higher Gasoline Prices: How Long It Takes.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated how much time passes before gasoline price changes affect traffic crashes. METHODS: We systematically examined 2004 to 2012 Mississippi traffic crash data by age, gender, and race. Control variables were unemployment rate, seat belt use, alcohol consumption, climate, and temporal and seasonal variations. RESULTS: We found a positive association between higher gasoline prices and safer roads. Overall, gasoline prices affected crashes 9 to 10 months after a price change. This finding was generally consistent across age, gender, and race, with some exceptions. For those aged 16 to 19 years, gasoline price increases had an immediate (although statistically weak) effect and a lagged effect, but crashes involving those aged 25 to 34 years was seemingly unaffected by price changes. For older individuals (≥ 75 years), the lagged effect was stronger and lasted longer than did that of other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results have important health policy implications for using gasoline prices and taxes to improve traffic safety.

Cost of abating greenhouse gas emissions with cellulosic ethanol.

We develop an integrated framework to determine and compare greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and production costs of cellulosic ethanol derived from corn stover, switchgrass, and miscanthus grown on high and low quality soils for three representative counties in the Eastern United States. This information is critical for assessing the cost-effectiveness of utilizing cellulosic ethanol for mitigating GHG emissions and designing appropriate policy incentives to support cellulosic ethanol production nationwide. We find considerable variations in the GHG intensities and production costs of ethanol across feedstocks and locations mostly due to differences in yields and soil characteristics. As compared to gasoline, the GHG savings from miscanthus-based ethanol ranged between 130% and 156% whereas that from switchgrass ranged between 97% and 135%. The corresponding range for GHG savings with corn stover was 57% to 95% and marginally below the threshold of at least 60% for biofuels classified as cellulosic biofuels under the Renewable Fuels Standard. Estimates of the costs of producing ethanol relative to gasoline imply an abatement cost of at least $48 Mg(-1) of GHG emissions (carbon dioxide equivalent) abated and can be used to infer the minimum carbon tax rate needed to induce consumption of cellulosic ethanol.

Evaluating the Effects of Aromatics Content in Gasoline on Gaseous and Particulate Matter Emissions from SI-PFI and SIDI Vehicles.

We assessed the emissions response of a fleet of seven light-duty gasoline vehicles for gasoline fuel aromatic content while operating over the LA92 driving cycle. The test fleet consisted of model year 2012 vehicles equipped with spark-ignition (SI) and either port fuel injection (PFI) or direct injection (DI) technology. Three gasoline fuels were blended to meet a range of total aromatics targets (15%, 25%, and 35% by volume) while holding other fuel properties relatively constant within specified ranges, and a fourth fuel was formulated to meet a 35% by volume total aromatics target but with a higher octane number. Our results showed statistically significant increases in carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbon, particulate matter (PM) mass, particle number, and black carbon emissions with increasing aromatics content for all seven vehicles tested. Only one vehicle showed a statistically significant increase in total hydrocarbon emissions. The monoaromatic hydrocarbon species that were evaluated showed increases with increasing aromatic content in the fuel. Changes in fuel composition had no statistically significant effect on the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), formaldehyde, or acetaldehyde. A good correlation was also found between the PM index and PM mass and number emissions for all vehicle/fuel combinations with the total aromatics group being a significant contributor to the total PM index followed by naphthalenes and indenes.

Life cycle air emissions impacts and ownership costs of light-duty vehicles using natural gas as a primary energy source.

This paper aims to comprehensively distinguish among the merits of different vehicles using a common primary energy source. In this study, we consider compressed natural gas (CNG) use directly in conventional vehicles (CV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and natural gas-derived electricity (NG-e) use in plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEV). This study evaluates the incremental life cycle air emissions (climate change and human health) impacts and life cycle ownership costs of non-plug-in (CV and HEV) and plug-in light-duty vehicles. Replacing a gasoline CV with a CNG CV, or a CNG CV with a CNG HEV, can provide life cycle air emissions impact benefits without increasing ownership costs; however, the NG-e BEV will likely increase costs (90% confidence interval: $1000 to $31 000 incremental cost per vehicle lifetime). Furthermore, eliminating HEV tailpipe emissions via plug-in vehicles has an insignificant incremental benefit, due to high uncertainties, with emissions cost benefits between -$1000 and $2000. Vehicle criteria air contaminants are a relatively minor contributor to life cycle air emissions impacts because of strict vehicle emissions standards. Therefore, policies should focus on adoption of plug-in vehicles in nonattainment regions, because CNG vehicles are likely more cost-effective at providing overall life cycle air emissions impact benefits.

The relationship between gasoline price and patterns of motorcycle fatalities and injuries.

OBJECTIVE: Economic factors such as rising gasoline prices may contribute to the crash trends by shaping individuals' choices of transportation modalities. This study examines the relationship of gasoline prices with fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries. METHODS: Data on fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries come from California's Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System for 2002-2011. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions were used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline price per gallon on trends of motorcycle injuries. RESULTS: Motorcycle fatalities and severe and minor injuries in California were highly correlated with increasing gasoline prices from 2002 to 2011 (r=0.76, 0.88 and 0.85, respectively). In 2008, the number of fatalities and injuries reached 13,457--a 34% increase since 2002, a time period in which inflation-adjusted gasoline prices increased about $0.30 per gallon every year. The majority of motorcycle riders involved in crashes were male (92.5%), middle-aged (46.2%) and non-Hispanic white (67.9%). Using ARIMA modelling, we estimated that rising gasoline prices resulted in an additional 800 fatalities and 10,290 injuries from 2002 to 2011 in California. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that increasing gasoline prices led to more motorcycle riders on the roads and, consequently, more injuries. Aside from mandatory helmet laws and their enforcement, other strategies may include raising risk awareness of motorcyclists and investment in public transportation as an alternative transportation modality to motorcycling. In addition, universally mandated training courses and strict licensing tests of riding skills should be emphasised to help reduce the motorcycle fatal and non-fatal injuries.

Refining economics of U.S. gasoline: octane ratings and ethanol content.

Increasing the octane rating of the U.S. gasoline pool (currently ∼ 93 Research Octane Number (RON)) would enable higher engine efficiency for light-duty vehicles (e.g., through higher compression ratio), facilitating compliance with federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards. The federal Renewable Fuels Standard calls for increased renewable fuel use in U.S. gasoline, primarily ethanol, a high-octane gasoline component. Linear programming modeling of the U.S. refining sector was used to assess the effects on refining economics, CO2 emissions, and crude oil use of increasing average octane rating by increasing (i) the octane rating of refinery-produced hydrocarbon blendstocks for oxygenate blending (BOBs) and (ii) the volume fraction (Exx) of ethanol in finished gasoline. The analysis indicated the refining sector could produce BOBs yielding finished E20 and E30 gasolines with higher octane ratings at modest additional refining cost, for example, ∼ 1¢/gal for 95-RON E20 or 97-RON E30, and 3-5¢/gal for 95-RON E10, 98-RON E20, or 100-RON E30. Reduced BOB volume (from displacement by ethanol) and lower BOB octane could (i) lower refinery CO2 emissions (e.g., ∼ 3% for 98-RON E20, ∼ 10% for 100-RON E30) and (ii) reduce crude oil use (e.g., ∼ 3% for 98-RON E20, ∼ 8% for 100-RON E30).

Ethanol and air quality: influence of fuel ethanol content on emissions and fuel economy of flexible fuel vehicles.

Engine-out and tailpipe emissions of NOx, CO, nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), nonmethane organic gases (NMOG), total hydrocarbons (THC), methane, ethene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, ethanol, N2O, and NH3 from a 2006 model year Mercury Grand Marquis flexible fuel vehicle (FFV) operating on E0, E10, E20, E30, E40, E55, and E80 on a chassis dynamometer are reported. With increasing ethanol content in the fuel, the tailpipe emissions of ethanol, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, methane, and ammonia increased; NOx and NMHC decreased; while CO, ethene, and N2O emissions were not discernibly affected. NMOG and THC emissions displayed a pronounced minimum with midlevel (E20-E40) ethanol blends; 25-35% lower than for E0 or E80. Emissions of NOx decreased by approximately 50% as the ethanol content increased from E0 to E30-E40, with no further decrease seen with E55 or E80. We demonstrate that emission trends from FFVs are explained by fuel chemistry and engine calibration effects. Fuel chemistry effects are fundamental in nature; the same trend of increased ethanol, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, and CH4 emissions and decreased NMHC and benzene emissions are expected for all FFVs. Engine calibration effects are manufacturer and model specific; emission trends for NOx, THC, and NMOG will not be the same for all FFVs. Implications for air quality are discussed.

Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.

Integrated evaluation of cost, emissions, and resource potential for algal biofuels at the national scale.

Costs, emissions, and resource availability were modeled for the production of 5 billion gallons yr(-1) (5 BGY) of renewable diesel in the United States from Chlorella biomass by hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL). The HTL model utilized data from a continuous 1-L reactor including catalytic hydrothermal gasification of the aqueous phase, and catalytic hydrotreatment of the HTL oil. A biophysical algae growth model coupled with weather and pond simulations predicted biomass productivity from experimental growth parameters, allowing site-by-site and temporal prediction of biomass production. The 5 BGY scale required geographically and climatically distributed sites. Even though screening down to 5 BGY significantly reduced spatial and temporal variability, site-to-site, season-to-season, and interannual variations in productivity affected economic and environmental performance. Performance metrics based on annual average or peak productivity were inadequate; temporally and spatially explicit computations allowed more rigorous analysis of these dynamic systems. For example, 3-season operation with a winter shutdown was favored to avoid high greenhouse gas emissions, but economic performance was harmed by underutilized equipment during slow-growth periods. Thus, analysis of algal biofuel pathways must combine spatiotemporal resource assessment, economic analysis, and environmental analysis integrated over many sites when assessing national scale performance.

Coordinated EV adoption: double-digit reductions in emissions and fuel use for $40/vehicle-year.

Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) would affect the costs and sources of electricity and the United States efficiency requirements for conventional vehicles (CVs). We model EV adoption scenarios in each of six regions of the Eastern Interconnection, containing 70% of the United States population. We develop electricity system optimization models at the multidecade, day-ahead, and hour-ahead time scales, incorporating spatial wind energy modeling, endogenous modeling of CV efficiencies, projections for EV efficiencies, and projected CV and EV costs. We find two means to reduce total consumer expenditure (TCE): (i) controlling charge timing and (ii) unlinking the fuel economy regulations for CVs from EVs. Although EVs provide minimal direct GHG reductions, controlled charging provides load flexibility, lowering the cost of renewable electricity. Without EVs, a 33% renewable electricity standard (RES) would cost $193/vehicle-year more than the reference case (10% RES). Combining a 33% RES, EVs with controlled charging and unlinking would reduce combined electric- and vehicle-sector CO2 emissions by 27% and reduce gasoline consumption by 59% for $40/vehicle-year more than the reference case. Coordinating EV adoption with adoption of controlled charging, unlinked fuel economy regulations, and renewable electricity standards would provide low-cost reductions in emissions and fuel usage.

The economic impact of state cigarette taxes and smoke-free air policies on convenience stores.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether increasing state cigarette taxes and/or enacting stronger smoke-free air (SFA) policies have negative impact on convenience store density in a state, a proxy that is determined by store openings and closings, which reflects store profits. METHODS: State-level business count estimates for convenience stores for 50 states and District of Columbia from 1997 to 2009 were analysed using two-way fixed effects regression techniques that control for state-specific and year-specific determinants of convenience store density. The impact of tax and SFA policies was examined using a quasi-experimental research design that exploits changes in cigarette taxes and SFA policies within a state over time. RESULTS: Taxes are found to be uncorrelated with the density of combined convenience stores and gas stations in a state. Taxes are positively correlated with the density of convenience stores; however, the magnitude of this correlation is small, with a 10% increase in state cigarette taxes associated with a 0.19% (p<0.05) increase in the number of convenience stores per million people in a state. State-level SFA policies do not correlate with convenience store density in a state, regardless whether gas stations were included. These results are robust across different model specifications. In addition, they are robust with regard to the inclusion/exclusion of other state-level tobacco control measures and gasoline prices. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to tobacco industry and related organisations' claims, higher cigarette taxes and stronger SFA policies do not negatively affect convenience stores.

Vibrotactile pedals: provision of haptic feedback to support economical driving.

The use of haptic feedback is currently an underused modality in the driving environment, especially with respect to vehicle manufacturers. This exploratory study evaluates the effects of a vibrotactile (or haptic) accelerator pedal on car driving performance and perceived workload using a driving simulator. A stimulus was triggered when the driver exceeded a 50% throttle threshold, past which is deemed excessive for economical driving. Results showed significant decreases in mean acceleration values, and maximum and excess throttle use when the haptic pedal was active as compared to a baseline condition. As well as the positive changes to driver behaviour, subjective workload decreased when driving with the haptic pedal as compared to when drivers were simply asked to drive economically. The literature suggests that the haptic processing channel offers a largely untapped resource in the driving environment, and could provide information without overloading the other attentional resource pools used in driving. PRACTITIONER SUMMARY: Overloaded or distracted drivers present a real safety danger to themselves and others. Providing driving-related feedback can improve performance but risks distracting them further; however, giving such information through the underused haptic processing channel can provide the driver with critical information without overloading the driver's visual channel.

Explicit and implicit copayments for phototherapy: examining the cost of commuting.

BACKGROUND: Whereas phototherapy is a safe and cost-effective treatment modality for psoriasis, economic disincentives discourage its use, including both direct and indirect costs to the patient. PURPOSE: To determine when it may be cost-effective for patients to purchase a home light unit versus driving to clinic for outpatient phototherapy sessions. METHODS: Estimates of expenses associated with 3 months of outpatient phototherapy were determined and compared to the price of a home phototherapy unit. Factors examined included the cost of gasoline (based on the national average), fuel efficiency of the vehicle, cost of owning and operating a motor vehicle, lost wages, and copayments. RESULTS: The cost for a standard 6-bulb narrowband UVB home unit is approximately $2600. Direct and indirect expenses imposed on patients increase with distance travelled to the dermatologist. If a patient lives 20 or more miles away from the dermatologist, the expenses associated with travel can total more than the out of pocket expense of purchasing a home phototherapy unit. LIMITATIONS: This small analysis only accounted for the first 3 months of treatment and likely underestimates the total costs that patients would experience over a lifetime of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: It may be beneficial for physicians to educate patients on the cost-burden of in-office versus home phototherapy because patients can use these parameters to determine which option would be more cost-effective for them.

Fuel miles and the blend wall: costs and emissions from ethanol distribution in the United States.

From 1991 to 2009, U.S. production of ethanol increased 10-fold, largely due to government programs motivated by climate change, energy security, and economic development goals. As low-level ethanol-gasoline blends have not consistently outperformed ethanol-free gasoline in vehicle performance or tailpipe emissions, national-level economic and environmental goals could be accomplished more efficiently by concentrating consumption of gasoline containing 10% ethanol (i.e., E10) near producers to minimize freight activity. As the domestic transportation of ethanol increased 10-fold in metric ton-kilometers (t-km) from 2000 to 2009, the portion of t-km potentially justified by the E10 blend wall increased from less than 40% to 80%. However, we estimate 10 billion t-km took place annually from 2004 to 2009 for reasons other than the blend wall. This "unnecessary" transportation resulted in more than $240 million in freight costs, 90 million L of diesel consumption, 300,000 metric tons of CO(2)-e emissions, and 440 g of human intake of PM(2.5). By 2009, the marginal savings from enabling Iowa to surpass E10 would have exceeded 2.5 g CO(2)-e/MJ and $0.12/gallon of ethanol, as the next-closest customer was 1600 km away. The use of a national network model enables estimation of marginal transportation impacts from subnational policies, and benefits from policies encouraging concentrated consumption of renewable fuels.

Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline.

Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472-952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123-208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM(2.5) emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM(2.5) reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels.