Uncertainties in doses calculated according to ICRP recommendations after inhalation of 239PUO2 and early chest monitoring.

ABSTRACT

This study estimates uncertainties in Pu biokinetics and effective doses calculated after an acute inhalation exposure to 239PuO2 according to ICRP recommendations (default values for aerosols size and PuO2 dissolution parameters). This was performed using the most recently reported variations in model parameters and simulations after a Monte Carlo approach. Without chest monitoring, uncertainties in thoracic retention and plutonium excretion was 8-10 (95% confidence interval as the ratio between 97.5 and 2.5 percentiles of the lognormal distributions) up to 900 d after exposure. Early chest monitoring reduces significantly the uncertainties in plutonium biokinetics and doses which remain within a 95% confidence interval of 2.3 as compared with 6.6, without monitoring. Analysis of bioassay data previously reported shows that the dose delivered to some individuals can be out of the confidence interval, which was mostly due to an inhibition of the late mechanical clearance of the alveolar interstitium.