Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(11): e1-e14, 2020 11.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32917290
ABSTRACT
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Disease Transmission, Infectious
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Humans
Language:
En
Journal:
Emerg Infect Dis
Journal subject:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Year:
2020
Type:
Article