Development and validation of a predictive tool for adverse drug reactions in neonates under intensive care.

AIMS: Neonates hospitalized in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) commonly experience adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Thus, we aimed to develop and validate a tool for predicting ADRs in neonates hospitalized in NICUs. METHODS: A nested case-control study in an open cohort with neonates admitted to the NICU of a maternity hospital in Natal, Brazil was conducted from January 2019 to January 2022 [Correction added on 4 December 2023, after first online publication: 2023 has been changed to 2019 in the preceding sentence.]. Neonates with ADR were randomly paired with 2 controls. For the development of the tool, a multivariate logistic regression was applied on 2/3 of the sample (cases with respective controls). The model's fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration and the Brier score for performance assessment. Validation of the tool was performed by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with bootstrap adjusted c-statistics. RESULTS: In all, 450 neonates (150 cases and 300 controls) were included in the study. We identified 5 independent risk factors for ADR, 4 related to the neonate (current mechanical ventilation, heart rate ≥178 beats/min, intravenous medications, ≥5 prescription medications) and 1 to the mother (gestational hypertension). The tool had a classification cut-off point of ≥15, and its total score ranged from 0 to 34. In validation, the tool had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.81) with sensitivity of 52.02% (95% CI 47.40-56.64) and specificity of 81.35% (95% CI 77.75-84.95). CONCLUSION: The tool demonstrated adequate discriminative ability and utilized 5 commonly monitored variables in the NICU.