Prognostic nomogram for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel or FOLFIRINOX: A post-hoc analysis of a multicenter retrospective study in Japan (NAPOLEON study).
BMC Cancer
; 22(1): 19, 2022 Jan 03.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34980029
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
No reliable nomogram has been developed until date for predicting the survival in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing treatment with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GnP) or FOLFIRINOX.METHODS:
This analysis was conducted using clinical data of Japanese patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing GnP or FOLFIRINOX treatment obtained from a multicenter study (NAPOLEON study). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram to predict 6-, 12-, and 18-month survival probabilities was generated, validated by using the concordance index (C-index), and calibrated by the bootstrapping method. And then, we attempted risk stratification for survival by classifying the patients according to the sum of the scores on the nomogram (total nomogram points).RESULTS:
A total of 318 patients were enrolled. A prognostic nomogram was generated using data on the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, liver metastasis, serum LDH, serum CRP, and serum CA19-9. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.77, 0.72 and 0.70 for 6-, 12-, and 18-month survival, respectively. The calibration plot showed optimal agreement at all points. Risk stratification based on tertiles of the total nomogram points yielded clear separations of the survival curves. The median survival times in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups were 15.8, 12.8 and 7.8 months (P<0.05), respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Our nomogram might be a convenient and inexpensive tool to accurately predict survival in Japanese patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing treatment with GnP or FOLFIRINOX, and will help clinicians in selecting appropriate therapeutic strategies for individualized management.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neoplasias Pancreáticas
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Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica
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Paclitaxel
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Desoxicitidina
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Nomogramas
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Albúminas
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Cancer
Asunto de la revista:
NEOPLASIAS
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Japón