Incidence and investigation of Covid-19 trend in Babol, northern Iran: A Joinpoint regression analysis.

ABSTRACT

Background: In December 2019, China released the first report of the coronavirus (COVID-19). On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the COVID-19 as "pandemic". The rapid occurrence of positive cases motivated this study to examine the trend of incidence cases. Methods: We used the data from the database of the Deputy of Health of Babol City and in Iran, the country report of definite cases of the disease that was reported to the World Health Organization had been used. This study was a cross-sectional study and the data from period of 56 weeks (from February 24, 2020 to March 20, 2021) were gathered. Descriptive analysis with SPSS20 and data classification with EXCEL2016 and Joinpoint regression with Joinpoint trend analysis software 4.9.0.0 identify the significant changes in the temporal trends of the outbreak. Results: In this study, 11341 patients with a mean age of 53.56 years, of whom 5865(51.5%) were males, were studied. Three waves of Covid19 were created. AWPC (average weekly percentage change) incidence rate with a slope of 2.7 was estimated for Babol and 6.2 for Iran. The incidence was higher in men in the first wave of 1887(55.6%) and so is the third 2373(50.1%), the average age in the third wave (50.92) was lower than the other waves as well. Conclusion: The incidence of coronavirus in men was higher in three waves and also the incidence was increasing in younger age groups. Also, due to the observance of health protocols and quarantine during the peak in Iran and Babol, we witnessed a decrease in incidence.