Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of immediate postoperative deep vein thrombosis after open wedge high tibial osteotomy.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify independent risk factors for immediate postoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with open wedge high tibial osteotomy (OWHTO) and to develop and validate a predictive nomogram. METHODS: Patients who underwent OWHTO for knee osteoarthritis (KOA) from June 2017 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Baseline data and laboratory test results were collected, and the occurrence of DVT in the immediate postoperative period was regarded as the study outcome event. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors associated with a higher incidence of immediate postoperative DVT. The predictive nomogram was constructed based on the analysis results. The stability of the model was further assessed in this study using patients from January to September 2022 as an external validation set. RESULTS: 741 patients were enrolled in the study, of which 547 were used in the training cohort and the other 194 for the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis revealed a higher Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade (III vs. I-II OR 3.09, 95% CI 0.93-10.23. IV vs. I-II OR 5.23, 95% CI 1.27-21.48.), platelet to hemoglobin ratio (PHR) > 2.25 (OR 6.10, 95% CI 2.43-15.33), Low levels of albumin (ALB) (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.90), LDL-C > 3.40 (OR 3.06, 95% CI 1.22-7.65), D-dimer > 1.26 (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.16-6.87) and BMI ≥ 28 (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.02-6.50) were the independent risk factors of immediate postoperative DVT. The concordance index (C-index) and Brier score of the nomogram were 0.832 and 0.036 in the training set, and the corrected values after internal validation were 0.795 and 0.038, respectively. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) performed well in both the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: This study developed a personalized predictive nomogram with six predictors, which allows surgeons to stratify risk and recommended immediate ultrasound scans for patients with any of these factors. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III.