Orthopedic Surgery Volume Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Postvaccination Era: Implications for Healthcare Planning.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic decreased surgical volumes, but prior studies have not investigated recovery through 2022, or analyzed specific procedures or cases of urgency within orthopedic surgery. The aims of this study were to (1) quantify the declines in orthopedic surgery volume during and after the pandemic peak, (2) characterize surgical volume recovery during the postvaccination period, and (3) characterize recovery in the 1-year postvaccine release period. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 27,476 orthopedic surgeries from January 2019 to December 2022 at one urban academic quaternary referral center. We reported trends over the following periods baseline pre-COVID-19 period (1/6/2019 to 1/4/2020), COVID-19 peak (3/15/2020 to 5/16/2020), post-COVID-19 peak (5/17/2020 to 1/2/2021), postvaccine release (1/3/2021 to 1/1/2022), and 1-year postvaccine release (1/2/2022 to 12/30/2022). Comparisons were performed with 2 sample t-tests. RESULTS: Pre-COVID-19 surgical volume fell by 72% at the COVID-19 peak, especially impacting elective procedures (P < .001) and both hip and knee joint arthroplasty (P < .001) procedures. Nonurgent (P = .024) and urgent or emergency (P = .002) cases also significantly decreased. Postpeak recovery before the vaccine saw volumes rise to 92% of baseline, which further rose to 96% and 94% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. While elective procedures surpassed the baseline in 2022, nonurgent and urgent or emergency surgeries remained low. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic substantially reduced orthopedic surgical volumes, which have still not fully recovered through 2022, particularly nonelective procedures. The differential recovery within an orthopedic surgery program may result in increased morbidity and can serve to inform department-level operational recovery.