Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Additive interaction between dietary inflammatory index and some key risk factors of multiple sclerosis: a population-based incident case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, dietary inflammatory index (DII) has been introduced as a significant risk factor for MS. We examined the interaction between dietary inflammatory index and some formerly demonstrated key risk factors of multiple sclerosis (MS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based incident case-control study of 547 MS cases and 1057 controls. Multiplicative and additive interaction were assessed using interaction term in the logistic regression model and synergy index (SI), respectively. RESULTS: Additive interaction was detected between DII and drug abuse (SI = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.14-5.82), gender (SI = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.39-2.87) and history of depression (SI = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.04-2.72) on the risk scale. The risk of MS in drug abusers with DII ≥ 0 was 10.4-times higher than that in non-drug abusers with DII < 0 (OR = 10.4, 95% CI: 5.12-21.02, P < 0.001). We also found that women with DII ≥ 0 had a 9.2 times larger risk compared with the men with DII < 0(OR = 9.2, 95% CI: 6.3-13.5, P < 0.001). Similarly, the risk of MS was remarkably higher in those with a history of depression and DII >0 (OR = 7.6, 95% CI: 5.1-11.5, P < 0.001). There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction between DII and the other risk factors of MS on the risk scale. CONCLUSIONS: We identified additive interaction between DII and drug abuse, gender and history of depression on MS. Further studies are needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these detected interactions.

Utilization of dental care among adult populations: a scoping review of applied models.

BACKGROUND: The timely and appropriate utilization of dental health care is essential to the prevention and accurate treatment of oral diseases. Therefore, it is crucial that managers, health professionals and healthcare providers be fully aware of the predictors encouraging the utilization of dental services and reduce social inequalities. In this scoping review, we aimed to analyze the published articles and reports to find out the factors associated with dental services utilization and the comprehensiveness of the applied models among general adult populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This scoping study was based on the 5-steps of Arksey and O'Malley framework. Keywords were selected under two main concepts: determinants of dental care utilization and the concept of the applied models. Searches were conducted in some electronic databses including PubMed, Google Scholar and Scopus with variations, and a combination of the keywords under the two main afore-mentioned concepts. All the relevant articles reporting the utilization of dental care and its potential predictors among adult populations were chosen. No restrictions involving terms of study time, location or methodological aspects of oral health utilization were considered. Using tables and charts mapping, we tried to group the studies based on the year of their publication, geographic distribution, the range of included indices and the type of their measurement. Also, a directed content analysis method was used to investigate the comprehensiveness of the studies in regard to considering the determinant factors at different levels suggested by the Andesen model. RESULTS: Fifty-two articles were included in the analysis. Thirty-six (69%) had been published between 2016 and 2020. The United States had conducted the most research in this scope. About 30% of studies had mentioned all three domains of demographics, social structure and beliefs, simultaneously. To evaluate the enabling factors, in 84.61% and 59.61% of studies, the income levels and insurance feature were assessed, respectively. 57.69% of the retrieved studies considered the perceived need features and 38.46% referred to the evaluated ones. The dental services utilization, in terms of the last visit during the "past 12 months", was assessed more commonly. Only 11.54% of studies did evaluate the contextual characteristics and about 71.15% of articles were relatively comprehensive. CONCLUSION: Overall, it seems that in most of the studies, not all of the determinant factors at different levels of the Andersen model have been considered. In order to discover the conceptual linkages and feedback loops of the model, it is essential to conduct more comprehensive research in the future.

The role of dietary antioxidant index and index of nutritional quality in MS onset: finding from an Iranian population-based incident case-control study.

METHODS: This was a large population-based case-control study recruiting 547 incident cases and 1057 population controls between August 2013 and February 2015. DAI and INQ were calculated based on the adolescence dietary intake of the participants. Logistic regression was employed for estimating adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence interval in 2018. RESULTS: Participants with less than median DAI values had two-fold increased risk of MS onset (adjusted OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.64-2.58, P < 0.001). A significant dose-response pattern for DAI (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.18-1.55, P for trend <0.001) was also detected. In the case of INQ, the strongest decreased risk were detected for vitamin D (OR = 0.09) and Zinc (OR = 0.34), followed by vitamin A (OR = 0.49), Calcium (OR = 0.49) and vitamin B6 (OR = 0.51) (All P-values < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Considering the inherent limitation of case-control designs, an appropriate intake of nutrient antioxidants may have a role in decreasing the likelihood of MS risk. Moreover, those with healthier diet assessed by index of nutritional quality were at decreased risk for MS.

Estimating the Marginal Causal Effect and Potential Impact of Waterpipe Smoking on Risk of Multiple Sclerosis Using the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method: A Large, Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

There are few if any reports regarding the role of lifetime waterpipe smoking in the etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). In a population-based incident case-control study conducted in Tehran, Iran, we investigated the association between waterpipe smoking and MS, adjusted for confounders. Cases (n = 547) were patients aged 15-50 years identified from the Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society between 2013 and 2015. Population-based controls (n = 1,057) were persons aged 15-50 years recruited through random digit telephone dialing. A doubly robust estimation method, the targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE), was used to estimate the marginal risk ratio and odds ratio for the association between waterpipe smoking and MS. The estimated risk ratio and odds ratio were both 1.70 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.17). The population attributable fraction was 21.4% (95% confidence interval: 4.0, 38.8). Subject to the limitations of case-control studies in interpreting associations causally, these results suggest that waterpipe use, or strongly related but undetermined factors, increases the risk of MS. Further epidemiologic studies, including nested case-control studies, are needed to confirm these findings.

The role of nutritional factors during adolescence in multiple sclerosis onset: a population-based incident case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: The potential role of nutritional factors in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology is not clearly understood. The authors investigated the association between dietary intake during adolescence with MS. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a population-based incident case-control study in Iran with 547 incident cases and 1057 general population controls (7/8/2013-17/2/2015). Logistic regression was used to test differences in dietary intake between cases and controls adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: We found that a higher dietary consumption during adolescence of fresh fish, canned tuna, poultry, cheese, yogurt, butter, fruit, vegetables and a number of dietary supplements were associated with a significantly reduced risk of MS, while red meat, shrimp, and margarine were not associated with MS. Fresh fish had a dose-response association of 0.71 (0.58-0.88) per category increase, and consuming >0.5 serves of canned tuna fish per week had an OR of 0.72 (0.56-0.90); fruit intake had an OR of 0.82 (0.71-0.94) per category increase and cheese consumption an OR of 0.78 (0.67-0.91) per category increase. CONCLUSIONS: We identified that a higher intake of a number of food groups generally viewed as healthy were associated with a reduced risk of MS. A healthier diet during adolescence may be protective of developing MS.

The value of thoracic computed tomography scan comparing to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is the current pandemic causing massive morbidity and mortality worldwide. The gold standard diagnostic method in use is reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) which cannot be solely relied upon. Computed tomography (CT) scan is a method currently used for diagnosis of lung disease and can play a substantial role if proved helpful in COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted this study to evaluate the diagnostic value of CT scan compared to RT-PCR in the diagnosis of COVID-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We recruited 291 hospitalized patients suspicious of COVID-19 according to typical clinical findings during February-March 2020. The patients underwent CT-scan and RT-PCR procedures on the day of hospital admission. CT scans were reported by two radiologists as typical, indeterminate, negative, and atypical. Statistical indices were calculated twice: once considering "typical" and "indeterminate" categories as positive and the other time counting "typical" results as positive. RESULTS: The CT reports were classified as typical (64.95%), indeterminate (10.31%), atypical (11%), and negative (13.75%). Considering "typical" and "intermediate" as positive, sensitivity and specificity were 85.3% and 38.8%, respectively, and using the second assumption, the mentioned indices were 75.9% and 50.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: According to our study, CT results do not create enough diagnostic benefit and could result in incorrect confidence if negative. Since widely available, CT integration in the clinical process may be helpful in screening of suspected patients in epidemics. Yet, suspected patients should be isolated till confirmed by (multiple) PCRs.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Medical History and Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Consistent evidence regarding the potential role of medical history in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology is lacking. OBJECTIVE: The association of medical history variables, that is, head injury and 9 autoimmune diseases with MS onset was investigated. METHODS: This was a population-based incident case-control study in Iran with 547 incident cases and 1,057 general population controls (August 7, 2013 - February 17, 2015). Multiple logistic regression models were used for estimating the adjusted ORs. RESULTS: Lifetime history of head trauma was not significantly associated with risk of MS after adjustment for well-known confounders (OR 1.24 [0.93-1.66, p = 0.14]). Similarly, there was no statistically significant association between cumulative numbers of head injury and MS (OR 1.02 [0.90-1.15, p = 0.79]). A history of autoimmune disease did not increase the risk of MS (p > 0.1). Similarly, the cumulative number of autoimmune diseases is not significantly associated with the risk of MS (p > 0.70). CONCLUSION: Lifetime histories of head trauma as well as 9 investigated autoimmune diseases are not associated with increased risk of MS.

Lifetime prevalence and correlates of smoking behavior in Iranian adults' population; a cross-sectional study.

ABSTACT: BACKGROUND: There are few if any reports concerning the joint use of waterpipe, cigarette and exposure to second-hand smoking in Tehran, Iran. Here, we simultaneously investigated the prevalence and predictors of smoking habits in Iranian adults. METHODS: In this population-based cross-sectional study, we recruited 1057 Iranian adults between August 2013 and February 2015, in Tehran, a multi-ethnic city. Participants were selected using random digit dialing. Three separate logistic regression models were applied to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (95% CI). RESULTS: Exposure to second-hand smoking was the most prevalent smoking type (37, 95% CI: 35-41%) followed by cigarette (23.9% (95% CI: 21-27%)) and water-pipe smoking (20.25% (95% CI: 18-23%)) in adults in Tehran. Almost 3.3 and 4.5% of adults reported three and two types of lifetime smoking behaviors, respectively. Age, sex, history of depression along with lifetime alcohol intake was the important predictors of all three types of smoking. Lifetime alcohol consumption was associated with increased prevalence of all three types of smoking (p for trend < 0.009). Lifetime drug abuse was also associated with increased prevalence of cigarette smoking (OR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.61-2.59, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime prevalence of waterpipe, cigarette and exposure to second-hand smoking is moderately high. Dual smoking behaviors are increasing in Iranian adults. An apparent age-related difference in pattern of waterpipe and cigarette smoking was observed. These findings highlight the need for further educational and preventive programs especially for dual smoking in Iranian young adults. This could provide practical information for evaluating and reforming the tobacco control programs and policies in Iran.

Estimating the Marginal Causal Effect of Fish Consumption during Adolescence on Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescence is considered as a critical time period in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology. Nonetheless, there are insufficient reports regarding the potential role of fresh and canned fish consumptions during adolescence in MS etiology. The authors investigated the association between fresh and canned fish consumptions and MS. METHODS: This was a population-based incident case-control study conducted in Tehran. Cases (n = 547) identified from Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society between August 7, 2013, and November 17, 2015 were included in the study. Population-based controls (n = 1,057) were recruited by random digit telephone dialing without any matching. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighing (IPTW) using 2 sets of propensity scores and model-based standardization were used to separately estimate the marginal odds ratio between fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence and MS. RESULTS: The marginal OR for fresh fish was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.90; p = 0.005) in both IPTW analyses. Similarly, the marginal OR for canned fish consumption was 0.75 (95% CI 0.60-0.95; p = 0.014).The model-based standardized OR was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.91; p = 0.008) for fresh and 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.94; p = 0.006) for canned fish consumption in adolescence. DISCUSSION: Subject to limitation of case-control studies in interpreting associations causally, this study suggests that both fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence can decrease the risk of MS.

Positive Aspects of Caregiving and Caregiver Burden: A Study of Caregivers of Patients With Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Now positive aspect of caregiving (PAC) is well-defined as caregiver gains, satisfaction, meaningful life, and enhanced family relationship. The adjusted association of PAC and caregiver burden is not well acknowledged. This study investigated the association of caregiver burden and PAC adjusting for potential confounders. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study that recruited 132 caregivers. A linear regression model with PAC was used to estimate the adjusted associations. RESULTS: The caregiver burden was negatively associated with PAC (mean difference in PAC per a 1-unit increase in caregiver burden = -0.12, 95% confidence interval: -0.18 to -0.056; P < .001). This association remained after adjustment for caregivers' age and marital status as well as patients' dependency level. CONCLUSION: The negative significant association of caregiver burden with PAC reinforces the need for interventional and/or educational programs aiming at decreasing the overall imposed burden. This can play an important role in improving caregivers' general health and quality of life.

Waterpipe smoking associated with multiple sclerosis: A population-based incident case-control study.

BACKGROUND: While cigarette and passive smoking have been identified as modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS), there is no report regarding Waterpipe smoking-MS association. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association of Waterpipe, tobacco, and passive smoking with MS. METHODS: Population-based incident case-control study in Iran with 547 incident cases and 1057 general population controls (7 August 2013-17 February 2015). Logistic regression model was used. Multiplicative along with additive interaction was assessed using product term and Synergy Index (SI), respectively, and the population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. RESULTS: Having ever smoked Waterpipe, tobacco, or being exposed to passive smoking were all significantly associated with MS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.77 (1.36-2.31), OR = 1.69 (1.24-2.31), and OR = 1.85 (1.48-2.32), respectively). Clear dose-response associations were observed with the duration exposed ( p < 0.001 for all three) and the amount smoked ( p < 0.001 for Waterpipe and tobacco). Those who had all three types of smoking had an odds that was 4.1 times higher than those without any type. The three types of smoking jointly contributed to 30.9% of the MS incidence. CONCLUSION: We identified Waterpipe smoking as a novel risk factor for MS. Given the global increase in Waterpipe smoking, especially among young adults, this finding reinforces the need for public health interventional and educational programs to combat this global increase.

Positive Aspects of Caregiving Questionnaire.

OBJECTIVE: The potential role of positive aspects of caregiving in enhancing caregivers' health is an important issue. The aim of this study was to develop and validate Positive Aspects of Caregiving Questionnaire (PACQ) in caregivers of patients with dementia in Iran. METHODS: Content validation process was used to content valid development. Cronbach α and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were calculated as reliability indices. We used exploratory factor analysis to extract potential latent factors and evaluate the factor structure of PACQ. We assess correlation between PACQ and caregiver burden for divergent validity. For convergent validity, correlation between PACQ and self-rated health was specified. RESULTS: Content validity indices (CVIs), internal consistency, and test-retest reliability were CVI > 0.80, α = 0.785, and ICC = 0.905, respectively. Moreover, item-total correlations confirmed good reliability of PACQ. Two factors were identified by factor analysis in this 10-item measure: patient and caregiver relationship and caregiver's psychological well-being. Divergent validity and convergent validity were established by high negative correlation between positive aspect of caregiving (PAC) and caregiver burden along with significant positive correlation between PAC and self-rated health, respectively. While Cronbach α for the entire scale was 0.785, Cronbach αs for both of the scale components were 0.71. CONCLUSION: The PACQ demonstrated acceptable psychometric properties of reliability and performs well in preliminary tests of validity as a measure of positive aspects of caregiving. This measure can be used to determine the outcome of interventional programs on positive, not only negative, aspect of caregiving.

Which variable is the strongest adjusted predictor of quality of life in caregivers of patients with dementia?

BACKGROUND: The central role of family in caregiving for patients with dementia is now widely acknowledged. However, in playing this role, caregivers may neglect their health and quality of life (QOL). The purposes of present study were to measure caregivers' QOL and to determine its adjusted predictors via multiple regression models. METHODS: We used sequential sampling to recruit 153 patients and their caregivers from the Iran Alzheimer Association in our cross-sectional study. A single-item question with a Likert scale was applied to measure QOL. A multiple linear regression model was used to determine the adjusted predictors of QOL. RESULTS: Of the responding caregivers, 22.8% reported their QOL as poor or very poor. Caregiver burden, the main caregiver's age, the Global Deterioration Scale, and the number of caregivers were introduced as adjusted predictors of QOL. CONCLUSIONS: Caregiver burden was proposed as the strongest adjusted predictor for caregivers' poor QOL. Therefore, it seems that interventions to reduce caregiver burden can be effective in enhancing caregivers' QOL.

Caregiver burden: the strongest predictor of self-rated health in caregivers of patients with dementia.

OBJECTIVE: People having dementia need help and supervision to perform their activities of daily living. This responsibility is usually imposed on family members who endure a great burden, leading to undesirable health outcomes. The aims of our study were to measure caregivers' health as well as identify its adjusted relevant predictors. METHODS: One hundred and fifty three registered patients and their caregivers from Iranian Alzheimer Association were included in this cross-sectional study through sequential sampling. Self-rated health (SRH) was measured using a single question with Likert-type scale ranging from very bad (1) to very good (5). The multiple linear regression model was applied to determine the adjusted associations between independent variables under study and SRH. RESULTS: The mean caregiver SRH level was 3.03. Of the participant caregivers, 29% were either unsatisfied or very unsatisfied with their health level. In the final regression model, SRH showed a direct significant association with the patient's number of children but an inverse significant association with the marital status (married patients), patient's age, and caregiver burden. CONCLUSIONS: Caregiver burden was not only significantly associated with poor SRH after removing the effect of the other covariates but it was also recognized as the strongest predictor of caregivers' SRH. Therefore, it seems that development of intervention programs, in order to reduce caregiver burden, can be considered as important step in promoting caregivers' health level.