Polygenic risk prediction: why and when out-of-sample prediction R2 can exceed SNP-based heritability.

In polygenic score (PGS) analysis, the coefficient of determination (R2) is a key statistic to evaluate efficacy. R2 is the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the PGS, calculated in a cohort that is independent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) that provided estimates of allelic effect sizes. The SNP-based heritability (hSNP2, the proportion of total phenotypic variances attributable to all common SNPs) is the theoretical upper limit of the out-of-sample prediction R2. However, in real data analyses R2 has been reported to exceed hSNP2, which occurs in parallel with the observation that hSNP2 estimates tend to decline as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. Here, we quantify why and when these observations are expected. Using theory and simulation, we show that if heterogeneities in cohort-specific hSNP2 exist, or if genetic correlations between cohorts are less than one, hSNP2 estimates can decrease as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. We derive conditions when the out-of-sample prediction R2 will be greater than hSNP2 and show the validity of our derivations with real data from a binary trait (major depression) and a continuous trait (educational attainment). Our research calls for a better approach to integrating information from multiple cohorts to address issues of between-cohort heterogeneity.

Methylome-wide association study of early life stressors and adult mental health.

The environment and events that we are exposed to in utero, during birth and in early childhood influence our future physical and mental health. The underlying mechanisms that lead to these outcomes are unclear, but long-term changes in epigenetic marks, such as DNA methylation, could act as a mediating factor or biomarker. DNA methylation data were assayed at 713 522 CpG sites from 9537 participants of the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study, a family-based cohort with extensive genetic, medical, family history and lifestyle information. Methylome-wide association studies of eight early life environment phenotypes and two adult mental health phenotypes (major depressive disorder and brief resilience scale) were conducted using DNA methylation data collected from adult whole blood samples. Two genes involved with different developmental pathways (PRICKLE2, Prickle Planar Cell Polarity Protein 2 and ABI1, Abl-Interactor-1) were annotated to CpG sites associated with preterm birth (P < 1.27 × 10-9). A further two genes important to the development of sensory pathways (SOBP, Sine Oculis Binding Protein Homolog and RPGRIP1, Retinitis Pigmentosa GTPase Regulator Interacting Protein) were annotated to sites associated with low birth weight (P < 4.35 × 10-8). The examination of methylation profile scores and genes and gene-sets annotated from associated CpGs sites found no evidence of overlap between the early life environment and mental health conditions. Birth date was associated with a significant difference in estimated lymphocyte and neutrophil counts. Previous studies have shown that early life environments influence the risk of developing mental health disorders later in life; however, this study found no evidence that this is mediated by stable changes to the methylome detectable in peripheral blood.

A comprehensive hierarchical comparison of structural connectomes in Major Depressive Disorder cases v. controls in two large population samples.

BACKGROUND: The brain can be represented as a network, with nodes as brain regions and edges as region-to-region connections. Nodes with the most connections (hubs) are central to efficient brain function. Current findings on structural differences in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) identified using network approaches remain inconsistent, potentially due to small sample sizes. It is still uncertain at what level of the connectome hierarchy differences may exist, and whether they are concentrated in hubs, disrupting fundamental brain connectivity. METHODS: We utilized two large cohorts, UK Biobank (UKB, N = 5104) and Generation Scotland (GS, N = 725), to investigate MDD case-control differences in brain network properties. Network analysis was done across four hierarchical levels: (1) global, (2) tier (nodes grouped into four tiers based on degree) and rich club (between-hub connections), (3) nodal, and (4) connection. RESULTS: In UKB, reductions in network efficiency were observed in MDD cases globally (d = -0.076, pFDR = 0.033), across all tiers (d = -0.069 to -0.079, pFDR = 0.020), and in hubs (d = -0.080 to -0.113, pFDR = 0.013-0.035). No differences in rich club organization and region-to-region connections were identified. The effect sizes and direction for these associations were generally consistent in GS, albeit not significant in our lower-N replication sample. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the brain's fundamental rich club structure is similar in MDD cases and controls, but subtle topological differences exist across the brain. Consistent with recent large-scale neuroimaging findings, our findings offer a connectomic perspective on a similar scale and support the idea that minimal differences exist between MDD cases and controls.

Sex-stratified genome-wide association study of multisite chronic pain in UK Biobank.

Chronic pain is highly prevalent worldwide and imparts a significant socioeconomic and public health burden. Factors influencing susceptibility to, and mechanisms of, chronic pain development, are not fully understood, but sex is thought to play a significant role, and chronic pain is more prevalent in women than in men. To investigate sex differences in chronic pain, we carried out a sex-stratified genome-wide association study of Multisite Chronic Pain (MCP), a derived chronic pain phenotype, in UK Biobank on 178,556 men and 209,093 women, as well as investigating sex-specific genetic correlations with a range of psychiatric, autoimmune and anthropometric phenotypes and the relationship between sex-specific polygenic risk scores for MCP and chronic widespread pain. We also assessed whether MCP-associated genes showed expression pattern enrichment across tissues. A total of 123 SNPs at five independent loci were significantly associated with MCP in men. In women, a total of 286 genome-wide significant SNPs at ten independent loci were discovered. Meta-analysis of sex-stratified GWAS outputs revealed a further 87 independent associated SNPs. Gene-level analyses revealed sex-specific MCP associations, with 31 genes significantly associated in females, 37 genes associated in males, and a single gene, DCC, associated in both sexes. We found evidence for sex-specific pleiotropy and risk for MCP was found to be associated with chronic widespread pain in a sex-differential manner. Male and female MCP were highly genetically correlated, but at an rg of significantly less than 1 (0.92). All 37 male MCP-associated genes and all but one of 31 female MCP-associated genes were found to be expressed in the dorsal root ganglion, and there was a degree of enrichment for expression in sex-specific tissues. Overall, the findings indicate that sex differences in chronic pain exist at the SNP, gene and transcript abundance level, and highlight possible sex-specific pleiotropy for MCP. Results support the proposition of a strong central nervous-system component to chronic pain in both sexes, additionally highlighting a potential role for the DRG and nociception.

Associations of negative affective biases and depressive symptoms in a community-based sample.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) was previously associated with negative affective biases. Evidence from larger population-based studies, however, is lacking, including whether biases normalise with remission. We investigated associations between affective bias measures and depressive symptom severity across a large community-based sample, followed by examining differences between remitted individuals and controls. METHODS: Participants from Generation Scotland (N = 1109) completed the: (i) Bristol Emotion Recognition Task (BERT), (ii) Face Affective Go/No-go (FAGN), and (iii) Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT). Individuals were classified as MDD-current (n = 43), MDD-remitted (n = 282), or controls (n = 784). Analyses included using affective bias summary measures (primary analyses), followed by detailed emotion/condition analyses of BERT and FAGN (secondary analyses). RESULTS: For summary measures, the only significant finding was an association between greater symptoms and lower risk adjustment for CGT across the sample (individuals with greater symptoms were less likely to bet more, despite increasingly favourable conditions). This was no longer significant when controlling for non-affective cognition. No differences were found for remitted-MDD v. controls. Detailed analysis of BERT and FAGN indicated subtle negative biases across multiple measures of affective cognition with increasing symptom severity, that were independent of non-effective cognition [e.g. greater tendency to rate faces as angry (BERT), and lower accuracy for happy/neutral conditions (FAGN)]. Results for remitted-MDD were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests the presence of subtle negative affective biases at the level of emotion/condition in association with depressive symptoms across the sample, over and above those accounted for by non-affective cognition, with no evidence for affective biases in remitted individuals.

Methylome-wide association study of antidepressant use in Generation Scotland and the Netherlands Twin Register implicates the innate immune system.

Antidepressants are an effective treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD), although individual response is unpredictable and highly variable. Whilst the mode of action of antidepressants is incompletely understood, many medications are associated with changes in DNA methylation in genes that are plausibly linked to their mechanisms. Studies of DNA methylation may therefore reveal the biological processes underpinning the efficacy and side effects of antidepressants. We performed a methylome-wide association study (MWAS) of self-reported antidepressant use accounting for lifestyle factors and MDD in Generation Scotland (GS:SFHS, N = 6428, EPIC array) and the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR, N = 2449, 450 K array) and ran a meta-analysis of antidepressant use across these two cohorts. We found ten CpG sites significantly associated with self-reported antidepressant use in GS:SFHS, with the top CpG located within a gene previously associated with mental health disorders, ATP6V1B2 (ß = -0.055, pcorrected = 0.005). Other top loci were annotated to genes including CASP10, TMBIM1, MAPKAPK3, and HEBP2, which have previously been implicated in the innate immune response. Next, using penalised regression, we trained a methylation-based score of self-reported antidepressant use in a subset of 3799 GS:SFHS individuals that predicted antidepressant use in a second subset of GS:SFHS (N = 3360, ß = 0.377, p = 3.12 × 10-11, R2 = 2.12%). In an MWAS analysis of prescribed selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, we showed convergent findings with those based on self-report. In NTR, we did not find any CpGs significantly associated with antidepressant use. The meta-analysis identified the two CpGs of the ten above that were common to the two arrays used as being significantly associated with antidepressant use, although the effect was in the opposite direction for one of them. Antidepressants were associated with epigenetic alterations in loci previously associated with mental health disorders and the innate immune system. These changes predicted self-reported antidepressant use in a subset of GS:SFHS and identified processes that may be relevant to our mechanistic understanding of clinically relevant antidepressant drug actions and side effects.

A genome-wide association study finds genetic variants associated with neck or shoulder pain in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Common types of musculoskeletal conditions include pain in the neck and shoulder areas. This study seeks to identify the genetic variants associated with neck or shoulder pain based on a genome-wide association approach using 203 309 subjects from the UK Biobank cohort and look for replication evidence from the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS) and TwinsUK. METHODS: A genome-wide association study was performed adjusting for age, sex, BMI and nine population principal components. Significant and independent genetic variants were then sent to GS:SFHS and TwinsUK for replication. RESULTS: We identified three genetic loci that were associated with neck or shoulder pain in the UK Biobank samples. The most significant locus was in an intergenic region in chromosome 17, rs12453010, having P = 1.66 × 10-11. The second most significant locus was located in the FOXP2 gene in chromosome 7 with P = 2.38 × 10-10 for rs34291892. The third locus was located in the LINC01572 gene in chromosome 16 with P = 4.50 × 10-8 for rs62053992. In the replication stage, among four significant and independent genetic variants, rs2049604 in the FOXP2 gene and rs62053992 in the LINC01572 gene were weakly replicated in GS:SFHS (P = 0.0240 and P = 0.0202, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified three loci associated with neck or shoulder pain in the UK Biobank cohort, two of which were weakly supported in a replication cohort. Further evidence is needed to confirm their roles in neck or shoulder pain.

Educational attainment impacts drinking behaviors and risk for alcohol dependence: results from a two-sample Mendelian randomization study with ~780,000 participants.

Observational studies suggest that lower educational attainment (EA) may be associated with risky alcohol use behaviors; however, these findings may be biased by confounding and reverse causality. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary statistics from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with >780,000 participants to assess the causal effects of EA on alcohol use behaviors and alcohol dependence (AD). Fifty-three independent genome-wide significant SNPs previously associated with EA were tested for association with alcohol use behaviors. We show that while genetic instruments associated with increased EA are not associated with total amount of weekly drinks, they are associated with reduced frequency of binge drinking ≥6 drinks (ßIVW = -0.198, 95% CI, -0.297 to -0.099, PIVW = 9.14 × 10-5), reduced total drinks consumed per drinking day (ßIVW = -0.207, 95% CI, -0.293 to -0.120, PIVW = 2.87 × 10-6), as well as lower weekly distilled spirits intake (ßIVW = -0.148, 95% CI, -0.188 to -0.107, PIVW = 6.24 × 10-13). Conversely, genetic instruments for increased EA were associated with increased alcohol intake frequency (ßIVW = 0.331, 95% CI, 0.267-0.396, PIVW = 4.62 × 10-24), and increased weekly white wine (ßIVW = 0.199, 95% CI, 0.159-0.238, PIVW = 7.96 × 10-23) and red wine intake (ßIVW = 0.204, 95% CI, 0.161-0.248, PIVW = 6.67 × 10-20). Genetic instruments associated with increased EA reduced AD risk: an additional 3.61 years schooling reduced the risk by ~50% (ORIVW = 0.508, 95% CI, 0.315-0.819, PIVW = 5.52 × 10-3). Consistency of results across complementary MR methods accommodating different assumptions about genetic pleiotropy strengthened causal inference. Our findings suggest EA may have important effects on alcohol consumption patterns and may provide potential mechanisms explaining reported associations between EA and adverse health outcomes.

Genetic and shared couple environmental contributions to smoking and alcohol use in the UK population.

Alcohol use and smoking are leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Both genetic and environmental factors have been shown to influence individual differences in the use of these substances. In the present study we tested whether genetic factors, modelled alongside common family environment, explained phenotypic variance in alcohol use and smoking behaviour in the Generation Scotland (GS) family sample of up to 19,377 individuals. SNP and pedigree-associated effects combined explained between 18 and 41% of the variance in substance use. Shared couple effects explained a significant amount of variance across all substance use traits, particularly alcohol intake, for which 38% of the phenotypic variance was explained. We tested whether the within-couple substance use associations were due to assortative mating by testing the association between partner polygenic risk scores in 34,987 couple pairs from the UK Biobank (UKB). No significant association between partner polygenic risk scores were observed. Associations between an individual's alcohol PRS (b = 0.05, S.E. = 0.006, p < 2 × 10-16) and smoking status PRS (b = 0.05, S.E. = 0.005, p < 2 × 10-16) were found with their partner's phenotype. In support of this, G carriers of a functional ADH1B polymorphism (rs1229984), known to be associated with greater alcohol intake, were found to consume less alcohol if they had a partner who carried an A allele at this SNP. Together these results show that the shared couple environment contributes significantly to patterns of substance use. It is unclear whether this is due to shared environmental factors, assortative mating, or indirect genetic effects. Future studies would benefit from longitudinal data and larger sample sizes to assess this further.

CRISPR disruption and UK Biobank analysis of a highly conserved polymorphic enhancer suggests a role in male anxiety and ethanol intake.

Excessive alcohol intake is associated with 5.9% of global deaths. However, this figure is especially acute in men such that 7.6% of deaths can be attributed to alcohol intake. Previous studies identified a significant interaction between genotypes of the galanin (GAL) gene with anxiety and alcohol abuse in different male populations but were unable to define a mechanism. To address these issues the current study analysed the human UK Biobank cohort and identified a significant interaction (n = 115,865; p = 0.0007) between allelic variation (GG or CA genotypes) in the highly conserved human GAL5.1 enhancer, alcohol intake (AUDIT questionnaire scores) and anxiety in men. Critically, disruption of GAL5.1 in mice using CRISPR genome editing significantly reduced GAL expression in the amygdala and hypothalamus whilst producing a corresponding reduction in ethanol intake in KO mice. Intriguingly, we also found the evidence of reduced anxiety-like behaviour in male GAL5.1KO animals mirroring that seen in humans from our UK Biobank studies. Using bioinformatic analysis and co-transfection studies we further identified the EGR1 transcription factor, that is co-expressed with GAL in amygdala and hypothalamus, as being important in the protein kinase C (PKC) supported activity of the GG genotype of GAL5.1 but less so in the CA genotype. Our unique study uses a novel combination of human association analysis, CRISPR genome editing in mice, animal behavioural analysis and cell culture studies to identify a highly conserved regulatory mechanism linking anxiety and alcohol intake that might contribute to increased susceptibility to anxiety and alcohol abuse in men.

Epigenome-wide association study and multi-tissue replication of individuals with alcohol use disorder: evidence for abnormal glucocorticoid signaling pathway gene regulation.

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is a chronic debilitating disorder with limited treatment options and poorly defined pathophysiology. There are substantial genetic and epigenetic components; however, the underlying mechanisms contributing to AUD remain largely unknown. We conducted the largest DNA methylation epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) analyses currently available for AUD (total N = 625) and employed a top hit replication (N = 4798) using a cross-tissue/cross-phenotypic approach with the goal of identifying novel epigenetic targets relevant to AUD. Results show that a network of differentially methylated regions in glucocorticoid signaling and inflammation-related genes were associated with alcohol use behaviors. A top probe consistently associated across all cohorts was located in the long non-coding RNA growth arrest specific five gene (GAS5) (p < 10-24). GAS5 has been implicated in regulating transcriptional activity of the glucocorticoid receptor and has multiple functions related to apoptosis, immune function and various cancers. Endophenotypic analyses using peripheral cortisol levels and neuroimaging paradigms showed that methylomic variation in GAS5 network-related probes were associated with stress phenotypes. Postmortem brain analyses documented increased GAS5 expression in the amygdala of individuals with AUD. Our data suggest that alcohol use is associated with differential methylation in the glucocorticoid system that might influence stress and inflammatory reactivity and subsequently risk for AUD.

DNA methylation signatures of aggression and closely related constructs: A meta-analysis of epigenome-wide studies across the lifespan.

DNA methylation profiles of aggressive behavior may capture lifetime cumulative effects of genetic, stochastic, and environmental influences associated with aggression. Here, we report the first large meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of aggressive behavior (N = 15,324 participants). In peripheral blood samples of 14,434 participants from 18 cohorts with mean ages ranging from 7 to 68 years, 13 methylation sites were significantly associated with aggression (alpha = 1.2 × 10-7; Bonferroni correction). In cord blood samples of 2425 children from five cohorts with aggression assessed at mean ages ranging from 4 to 7 years, 83% of these sites showed the same direction of association with childhood aggression (r = 0.74, p = 0.006) but no epigenome-wide significant sites were found. Top-sites (48 at a false discovery rate of 5% in the peripheral blood meta-analysis or in a combined meta-analysis of peripheral blood and cord blood) have been associated with chemical exposures, smoking, cognition, metabolic traits, and genetic variation (mQTLs). Three genes whose expression levels were associated with top-sites were previously linked to schizophrenia and general risk tolerance. At six CpGs, DNA methylation variation in blood mirrors variation in the brain. On average 44% (range = 3-82%) of the aggression-methylation association was explained by current and former smoking and BMI. These findings point at loci that are sensitive to chemical exposures with potential implications for neuronal functions. We hope these results to be a starting point for studies leading to applications as peripheral biomarkers and to reveal causal relationships with aggression and related traits.

Genome-wide association study of multisite chronic pain in UK Biobank.

Chronic pain is highly prevalent worldwide and represents a significant socioeconomic and public health burden. Several aspects of chronic pain, for example back pain and a severity-related phenotype 'chronic pain grade', have been shown previously to be complex heritable traits with a polygenic component. Additional pain-related phenotypes capturing aspects of an individual's overall sensitivity to experiencing and reporting chronic pain have also been suggested as a focus for investigation. We made use of a measure of the number of sites of chronic pain in individuals within the UK general population. This measure, termed Multisite Chronic Pain (MCP), is a complex trait and its genetic architecture has not previously been investigated. To address this, we carried out a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) of MCP in ~380,000 UK Biobank participants. Our findings were consistent with MCP having a significant polygenic component, with a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) heritability of 10.2%. In total 76 independent lead SNPs at 39 risk loci were associated with MCP. Additional gene-level association analyses identified neurogenesis, synaptic plasticity, nervous system development, cell-cycle progression and apoptosis genes as enriched for genetic association with MCP. Genetic correlations were observed between MCP and a range of psychiatric, autoimmune and anthropometric traits, including major depressive disorder (MDD), asthma and Body Mass Index (BMI). Furthermore, in Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses a causal effect of MCP on MDD was observed. Additionally, a polygenic risk score (PRS) for MCP was found to significantly predict chronic widespread pain (pain all over the body), indicating the existence of genetic variants contributing to both of these pain phenotypes. Overall, our findings support the proposition that chronic pain involves a strong nervous system component with implications for our understanding of the physiology of chronic pain. These discoveries may also inform the future development of novel treatment approaches.

Mental health before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in two longitudinal UK population cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation measures are likely to have a marked effect on mental health. It is important to use longitudinal data to improve inferences. AIMS: To quantify the prevalence of depression, anxiety and mental well-being before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, to identify groups at risk of depression and/or anxiety during the pandemic. METHOD: Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) index generation (n = 2850, mean age 28 years) and parent generation (n = 3720, mean age 59 years), and Generation Scotland (n = 4233, mean age 59 years). Depression was measured with the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire in ALSPAC and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 in Generation Scotland. Anxiety and mental well-being were measured with the Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment-7 and the Short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale. RESULTS: Depression during the pandemic was similar to pre-pandemic levels in the ALSPAC index generation, but those experiencing anxiety had almost doubled, at 24% (95% CI 23-26%) compared with a pre-pandemic level of 13% (95% CI 12-14%). In both studies, anxiety and depression during the pandemic was greater in younger members, women, those with pre-existing mental/physical health conditions and individuals in socioeconomic adversity, even when controlling for pre-pandemic anxiety and depression. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence for increased anxiety in young people that is coincident with the pandemic. Specific groups are at elevated risk of depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is important for planning current mental health provisions and for long-term impact beyond this pandemic.

Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. AIMS: To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics. METHOD: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. RESULTS: Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (ß = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (ß = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (ß = -0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (ß = -0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. CONCLUSIONS: AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.

Polygenic contributions to alcohol use and alcohol use disorders across population-based and clinically ascertained samples.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders have distinct genetic backgrounds. METHODS: We examined whether polygenic risk scores (PRS) for consumption and problem subscales of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C, AUDIT-P) in the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 121 630) correlate with alcohol outcomes in four independent samples: an ascertained cohort, the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA; N = 6850), and population-based cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; N = 5911), Generation Scotland (GS; N = 17 461), and an independent subset of UKB (N = 245 947). Regression models and survival analyses tested whether the PRS were associated with the alcohol-related outcomes. RESULTS: In COGA, AUDIT-P PRS was associated with alcohol dependence, AUD symptom count, maximum drinks (R2 = 0.47-0.68%, p = 2.0 × 10-8-1.0 × 10-10), and increased likelihood of onset of alcohol dependence (hazard ratio = 1.15, p = 4.7 × 10-8); AUDIT-C PRS was not an independent predictor of any phenotype. In ALSPAC, the AUDIT-C PRS was associated with alcohol dependence (R2 = 0.96%, p = 4.8 × 10-6). In GS, AUDIT-C PRS was a better predictor of weekly alcohol use (R2 = 0.27%, p = 5.5 × 10-11), while AUDIT-P PRS was more associated with problem drinking (R2 = 0.40%, p = 9.0 × 10-7). Lastly, AUDIT-P PRS was associated with ICD-based alcohol-related disorders in the UKB subset (R2 = 0.18%, p < 2.0 × 10-16). CONCLUSIONS: AUDIT-P PRS was associated with a range of alcohol-related phenotypes across population-based and ascertained cohorts, while AUDIT-C PRS showed less utility in the ascertained cohort. We show that AUDIT-P is genetically correlated with both use and misuse and demonstrate the influence of ascertainment schemes on PRS analyses.

Associations between major psychiatric disorder polygenic risk scores and blood-based markers in UK biobank.

Major depressive disorder (MDD), schizophrenia (SCZ), and bipolar disorder (BD) have both shared and discrete genetic risk factors, and are associated with peripheral abnormalities. The relationships between such genetic architectures and blood-based markers are, however, unclear. We investigated relationships between polygenic risk scores (PRS) for these disorders and peripheral markers in the UK Biobank cohort. We calculated polygenic risk scores for n = 367,329 (MDD PRS), n = 366,465 (SCZ PRS), and n = 366,383 (BD PRS) UK Biobank cohort subjects. We then examined associations between disorder PRS and 58 inflammatory/immune, hematological, bone, cardiovascular, hormone, liver, renal and diabetes-associated blood markers using two generalized linear regression models: 'minimally adjusted' controlling for variables such as age and sex, and 'fully adjusted' including additional lifestyle covariates: BMI, alcohol and smoking status, and medication intake. There were 38/58 MDD PRS, 32/58 SCZ PRS, and 20/58 BD PRS-blood marker associations detected for our minimally adjusted model. Of these, 13/38 (MDD PRS), 14/32 (SCZ PRS), and 10/20 (BD PRS) associations remained significant after controlling for lifestyle factors. Many were disorder-specific, with 8/13 unique MDD PRS associations identified. Several disorder-specific associations for MDD and SCZ were immune-related, with mostly positive and negative associations identified for MDD and SCZ PRS respectively. This study suggests that MDD, SCZ and BD have both shared and distinct peripheral markers associated with disorder-specific genetic risk. The results also implicate inflammatory dysfunction in MDD and SCZ, albeit with differences in patterns between the two conditions, and enrich our understanding of potential underlying pathophysiological mechanisms in major psychiatric disorders.

Structural brain correlates of serum and epigenetic markers of inflammation in major depressive disorder.

Inflammatory processes are implicated in the aetiology of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD); however, the relationship between peripheral inflammation, brain structure and depression remains unclear, partly due to complexities around the use of acute/phasic inflammatory biomarkers. Here, we report the first large-scale study of both serological and methylomic signatures of CRP (considered to represent acute and chronic measures of inflammation respectively) and their associations with depression status/symptoms, and structural neuroimaging phenotypes (T1 and diffusion MRI) in a large community-based sample (Generation Scotland; NMDD cases = 271, Ncontrols = 609). Serum CRP was associated with overall MDD severity, and specifically with current somatic symptoms- general interest (ß = 0.145, PFDR = 6 × 10-4) and energy levels (ß = 0.101, PFDR = 0.027), along with reduced entorhinal cortex thickness (ß = -0.095, PFDR = 0.037). DNAm CRP was significantly associated with reduced global grey matter/cortical volume and widespread reductions in integrity of 16/24 white matter tracts (with greatest regional effects in the external and internal capsules, ßFA= -0.12 to -0.14). In general, the methylation-based measures showed stronger associations with imaging metrics than serum-based CRP measures (ßaverage = -0.15 versus ßaverage = 0.01 respectively). These findings provide evidence for central effects of peripheral inflammation from both serological and epigenetic markers of inflammation, including in brain regions previously implicated in depression. This suggests that these imaging measures may be involved in the relationship between peripheral inflammation and somatic/depressive symptoms. Notably, greater effects on brain morphology were seen for methylation-based rather than serum-based measures of inflammation, indicating the importance of such measures for future studies.

Automated classification of depression from structural brain measures across two independent community-based cohorts.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has been the subject of many neuroimaging case-control classification studies. Although some studies report accuracies ≥80%, most have investigated relatively small samples of clinically-ascertained, currently symptomatic cases, and did not attempt replication in larger samples. We here first aimed to replicate previously reported classification accuracies in a small, well-phenotyped community-based group of current MDD cases with clinical interview-based diagnoses (from STratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally cohort, 'STRADL'). We performed a set of exploratory predictive classification analyses with measures related to brain morphometry and white matter integrity. We applied three classifier types-SVM, penalised logistic regression or decision tree-either with or without optimisation, and with or without feature selection. We then determined whether similar accuracies could be replicated in a larger independent population-based sample with self-reported current depression (UK Biobank cohort). Additional analyses extended to lifetime MDD diagnoses-remitted MDD in STRADL, and lifetime-experienced MDD in UK Biobank. The highest cross-validation accuracy (75%) was achieved in the initial current MDD sample with a decision tree classifier and cortical surface area features. The most frequently selected decision tree split variables included surface areas of bilateral caudal anterior cingulate, left lingual gyrus, left superior frontal, right precentral and paracentral regions. High accuracy was not achieved in the larger samples with self-reported current depression (53.73%), with remitted MDD (57.48%), or with lifetime-experienced MDD (52.68-60.29%). Our results indicate that high predictive classification accuracies may not immediately translate to larger samples with broader criteria for depression, and may not be robust across different classification approaches.

Genome-wide association study of antidepressant treatment resistance in a population-based cohort using health service prescription data and meta-analysis with GENDEP.

Antidepressants demonstrate modest response rates in the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Despite previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of antidepressant treatment response, the underlying genetic factors are unknown. Using prescription data in a population and family-based cohort (Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study; GS:SFHS), we sought to define a measure of (a) antidepressant treatment resistance and (b) stages of antidepressant resistance by inferring antidepressant switching as non-response to treatment. GWAS were conducted separately for antidepressant treatment resistance in GS:SFHS and the Genome-based Therapeutic Drugs for Depression (GENDEP) study and then meta-analysed (meta-analysis n = 4213, cases = 358). For stages of antidepressant resistance, a GWAS on GS:SFHS only was performed (n = 3452). Additionally, we conducted gene-set enrichment, polygenic risk scoring (PRS) and genetic correlation analysis. We did not identify any significant loci, genes or gene sets associated with antidepressant treatment resistance or stages of resistance. Significant positive genetic correlations of antidepressant treatment resistance and stages of resistance with neuroticism, psychological distress, schizotypy and mood disorder traits were identified. These findings suggest that larger sample sizes are needed to identify the genetic architecture of antidepressant treatment response, and that population-based observational studies may provide a tractable approach to achieving the necessary statistical power.