Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Ejection fraction and ventricular volumes on rubidium positron emission tomography: Validation against cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is the non-invasive gold standard for non-invasively determining left ventricular volumes (LVVs) and ejection fraction (EF). We aimed to assess the accuracy of LVV and left ventricular ejection fraction measured by positron emission tomography (PET) as compared to CMR. METHODS: Patients who underwent both PET and CMR within 1 year were identified from prospective institutional registries. Analysis was performed to evaluate the agreement between the raw and body-surface-area-normalized left ventricular volume (LVV) and EF derived from PET vs. those derived from CMR. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 669 patients (mean age 62 ± 13 years, 65% male). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) duration between CMR and PET imaging was 36 (7-118) days. The median (IQR) EF values were 52% (38-63%) on CMR and 53% (37-65%) on PET (mean difference: 0.53% ± 9.1, P = 0.129) with a strong correlation (Spearman rho = 0.84, P < 0.001; Intraclass Correlation Coefficient 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.82-0.86, P < 0.001; Lin's concordance correlation coefficient was 0.844, 95% CI: 0.822 to 0.865). Results were similar with LVV, normalized LVV/EF, and in subgroups of patients with reduced EF, coronary artery disease scar, and LV hypertrophy as well as in patients with defibrillators. However, PET tended to underestimate LVV compared to CMR. CONCLUSION: Our analysis showed a strong correlation of EF and LVV by PET against a reference standard of CMR, whereas PET significantly underestimated LVV, but not EF, compared to CMR.

Hearing Loss Prevalence, Years Lived With Disability, and Hearing Aid Use in the United States From 1990 to 2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes key data sources and methods used to estimate hearing loss in the United States, in the Global Burden of Disease study. Then, trends in hearing loss are described for 2019, including temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, changing prevalence over age, severity patterns, and utilization of hearing aids. DESIGN: We utilized population-representative surveys from the United States to estimate hearing loss prevalence for the Global Burden of Disease study. A key input data source in modeled estimates are the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), years 1988 to 2010. We ran hierarchical severity-specific models to estimate hearing loss prevalence. We then scaled severity-specific models to sum to total hearing impairment prevalence, adjusted estimates for hearing aid coverage, and split estimates by etiology and tinnitus status. We computed years lived with disability (YLDs), which quantifies the amount of health loss associated with a condition depending on severity and creates a common metric to compare the burden of disparate diseases. This was done by multiplying the prevalence of severity-specific hearing loss by corresponding disability weights, with additional weighting for tinnitus comorbidity. RESULTS: An estimated 72.88 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 68.53 to 77.30) people in the United States had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for 22.2% (20.9 to 23.6) of the total population. Hearing loss was responsible for 2.24 million (1.56 to 3.11) YLDs (3.6% (2.8 to 4.7) of total US YLDs). Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (17.7% [16.7 to 18.8]) compared with females (11.9%, [11.2 to 12.5]). While most cases of hearing loss were mild (64.3%, 95% UI 61.0 to 67.6), disability was concentrated in cases that were moderate or more severe. The all-age prevalence of hearing loss in the United States was 28.1% (25.7 to 30.8) higher in 2019 than in 1990, despite stable age-standardized prevalence. An estimated 9.7% (8.6 to 11.0) of individuals with mild to profound hearing loss utilized a hearing aid, while 32.5% (31.9 to 33.2) of individuals with hearing loss experienced tinnitus. Occupational noise exposure was responsible for 11.2% (10.2 to 12.4) of hearing loss YLDs. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate large burden of hearing loss in the United States, with an estimated 1 in 5 people experiencing this condition. While many cases of hearing loss in the United States were mild, growing prevalence, low usage of hearing aids, and aging populations indicate the rising impact of this condition in future years and the increasing importance of domestic access to hearing healthcare services. Large-scale audiometric surveys such as NHANES are needed to regularly assess hearing loss burden and access to healthcare, improving our understanding of who is impacted by hearing loss and what groups are most amenable to intervention.

The utility of beta-hydroxybutyrate in detecting myocardial glucose uptake suppression in patients undergoing inflammatory [18F]-FDG PET studies.

PURPOSE: We evaluated whether serum beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) can identify adequate suppression of the left ventricle (LV) among patients undergoing [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ([18F]-FDG PET) for cardiac inflammatory/infectious studies. METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent [18F]-FDG PET imaging were included. Serum BHB levels were measured in all patients on the day of imaging prior to injecting [18F]-FDG. Myocardial [18F]-FDG suppression was defined if [18F]-FDG uptake in the walls of myocardium, measured using standardized uptake values (SUV), was lower than the blood pool. The optimal threshold of BHB to identify myocardial suppression was based on receiver operating characteristics (ROC) in a random 30% sample of the study population (derivation cohort) and tested in the remaining 70% of sample (validation cohort). RESULTS: A total of 256 images from 220 patients were included. Patients with sufficient LV suppression had significantly higher BHB levels compared to those with non-suppressed myocardium (median (IQR) BHB 0.6 (0.3-0.8) vs. 0.2 (0.2-0.3) mmol/l, p < 0.001, respectively). BHB level ≥ 0.335 mmol/l had a sensitivity of 84.90% and a specificity of 92.60% to identify adequate LV suppression in the validation cohort. All patients (100%) with BHB ≥ 0.41 mmol/l had adequate myocardial suppression compared to 29.63% of patients with BHB ≤ 0.20 mmol/l. CONCLUSION: Serum BHB level can be used at the point of care to identify sufficient LV suppression in patients undergoing [18F]-FDG PET cardiac inflammatory/infectious studies. Central illustration (image to the right) shows representative cases of patient images and BHB and, in the image to the left, shows the sensitivity and specificity to identify left myocardial suppression using BHB in validation group.

The Role of Cardiac PET in Diagnosis and Prognosis of Ischemic Heart Disease: Optimal Modality Across Different Patient Populations.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite single-photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT) being the most used nuclear imaging technique for diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD), many now consider positron emission tomography (PET) as a superior modality. This review will focus on the advances of cardiac PET in recent years and its advantages compared to SPECT in diagnosis and prognosis of CAD. RECENT FINDINGS: PET's higher resolution and enhanced diagnostic accuracy, as well as lower radiation exposure, all help explain the rationale for its wider spread and use. PET also allows for measurement of myocardial blood flow (MBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR), which aids in several different clinical scenarios, such as diagnosing multivessel disease or identifying non-responders. PET has also been shown to be useful in diagnosing CAD in various specific populations, such as patients with prior COVID-19 infection, cardiac transplant, and other comorbidities.

Splenic switch-off in regadenoson 82Rb-PET myocardial perfusion imaging: assessment of clinical utility.

BACKGROUND: Splenic switch-off (SSO) is a phenomenon describing a decrease in splenic radiotracer uptake after vasodilatory stress. We aimed to assess the diagnostic utility of regadenoson-induced SSO. METHODS: We included consecutive patients who had clinically indicated Regadenoson Rb-82 PET-MPI for suspected CAD. This derivation cohort (no perfusion defects and myocardial flow reserves (MFR) ≥ 2) was used to calculate the splenic response ratio (SRR). The validation cohort was defined as patients who underwent both PET-MPI studies and invasive coronary angiography (ICA). RESULTS: The derivation cohort (n = 100, 57.4 ± 11.6 years, 77% female) showed a decrease in splenic uptake from rest to stress (79.9 ± 16.8 kBq⋅mL vs 69.1 ± 16.2 kBq⋅mL, P < .001). From the validation cohort (n = 315, 66.3 ± 10.4 years, 67% male), 28% (via SRR = 0.88) and 15% (visually) were classified as splenic non-responders. MFR was lower in non-responders (SRR; 1.55 ± 0.65 vs 1.76 ± 0.78, P = .02 and visually; 1.18 ± 0.33 vs 1.79 ± 0.77, P < .001). Based on ICA, non-responders were more likely to note obstructive epicardial disease with normal PET scans especially in patients with MFR < 1.5 (SRR; 61% vs 34% P = .05 and visually; 68% vs 33%, P = .01). CONCLUSION: Lack of splenic response based on visual or quantitative assessment of SSO may be used to identify an inadequate vasodilatory response.

Advances in Digital PET Technology and Its Potential Impact on Myocardial Perfusion and Blood Flow Quantification.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we explore the development of digital PET scanners and describe the mechanism by which they work. We dive into some technical details on what differentiates a digital PET from a conventional PET scanner and how such differences lead to better imaging characteristics. Additionally, we summarize the available evidence on the improvements in the images acquired by digital PET as well as the remaining pitfalls. Finally, we report the comparative studies available on how digital PET compares to conventional PET, particularly in the quantification of coronary blood flow. RECENT FINDINGS: The advent of digital PET offers high sensitivity and time-of-flight (TOF), which allow lower activity and scan times, with much less risk of detector saturation. This allows faster patient throughput, scanning more patients per generator, and acquiring more consistent image quality across patients. The higher sensitivity captures more of the potential artifacts, particularly motion-related ones, which presents a current challenge that still needs to be tackled. The digital silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) positron emission tomography (PET) machine has been an important development in the technological advancements of non-invasive nuclear cardiovascular imaging. It has enhanced the utility for PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and myocardial blood flow (MBF) quantification.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Inhaled nitric oxide for treating pain crises in people with sickle cell disease.

BACKGROUND: In people with sickle cell disease, sickled red blood cells cause the occlusion of small blood vessels, which presents as episodes of severe pain known as pain crises or vaso-occlusive crises. The pain can occur in the bones, chest, or other parts of the body, and may last several hours to days. Pain relief during crises includes both pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic treatments. The efficacy of inhaled nitric oxide in pain crises has been a subject of controversy; hypotheses have been made suggesting a beneficial response due to its vasodilator properties, yet no conclusive evidence has been presented. This review aimed to evaluate the available randomised controlled studies addressing this topic. OBJECTIVES: To capture the body of evidence evaluating the efficacy and safety of the use of inhaled nitric oxide in treating pain crises in people with sickle cell disease, and to assess the relevance, robustness, and validity of the treatment to better guide medical practice in the fields of haematology and palliative care (since the recent literature seems to favour the involvement of palliative care for such people). SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register. We searched for unpublished work in the abstract books of the European Haematology Association conference, the American Society of Hematology conference, the British Society for Haematology Annual Scientific Meeting, the Caribbean Health Research Council Meetings, and the National Sickle Cell Disease Program Annual Meeting. The most recent search was conducted on 1 September 2021. We also searched ongoing study registries on 19 November 2021. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing inhaled nitric oxide with placebo for treating pain crises in people with sickle cell disease. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data (including adverse event data), with any disagreements resolved by consulting a third review author. When the data were not reported in the text, we attempted to extract the data from available tables or figures. We contacted trial authors for additional information. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE criteria. MAIN RESULTS: We included three trials involving a total of 188 participants in the review. There were equal numbers of males and females. Most participants were adults, although one small trial was conducted in a children's hospital and recruited children over the age of 10 years. All three parallel trials compared inhaled nitric oxygen (80 parts per million (ppm)) to placebo (nitrogen gas mixed with oxygen or room air) for four hours; one trial continued administering nitric oxide (40 ppm) for a further four hours. This extended trial had an overall low risk of bias; however, we had concerns about risk of bias for the remaining two trials due to their small sample size, and additionally a high risk of bias due to financial conflicts of interest in one of these smaller trials. We were only able to analyse some limited data from the eight-hour trial, reporting the remaining results narratively. Evidence from one trial (150 participants) suggested that inhaled nitric oxide may not reduce the time to pain resolution: inhaled nitric oxide median 73.0 hours (95% confidence interval (CI) 46.0 to 91.0) and with placebo median 65.5 hours (95% CI 48.1 to 84.0) (low-certainty evidence). No trial reported on the duration of the initial pain crisis. Only one large trial reported on the frequency of pain crises in the follow-up period and found there may be little or no difference between the inhaled nitric oxide and placebo groups for return to the emergency department (risk ratio (RR) 0.73, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.71) and rehospitalisation (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.11) (150 participants; low-certainty evidence). There may be little or no difference between treatment and placebo in terms of reduction in pain score at any time point up to eight hours (150 participants). The two smaller trials reported a beneficial effect of inhaled nitric oxide in reducing the visual analogue pain score after four hours of the intervention. Analgesic use was reported not to differ greatly between the inhaled nitric oxide group and placebo group in any of the three trials, but no analysable data were provided. Two trials reported the median duration of hospitalisation: in the largest trial the placebo group had the shorter duration, whilst in the second smaller (paediatric) trial hospitalisation was shorter in the treatment group. Only the largest trial (150 participants) reported serious adverse events, with no increase in the inhaled nitric oxide group during or after the intervention compared to the control group (acute chest syndrome occurred in 5 out of 75 participants from each group, pyrexia in 1 out of 75 participants from each group, and dysphagia and a drop in haemoglobin were each reported in 1 out of 75 participants in the inhaled nitric oxide group) (low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The currently available evidence is insufficient to determine the effects (benefits or harms) of using inhaled nitric oxide to treat pain (vaso-occlusive) crises in people with sickle cell disease. Large-scale, long-term trials are needed to provide more robust data in this area. Patient-important outcomes (e.g. measures of pain and time to pain resolution and amounts of analgesics used), as well as use of healthcare services, should be measured and reported in a standardised manner.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Calcific Aortic Valve and Degenerative Mitral Valve Diseases, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

BACKGROUND: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. RESULTS: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. RESULTS: Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Epidemiology of facial fractures: incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture. METHODS: We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes. RESULTS: Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions. CONCLUSIONS: Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. RESULTS: Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Natural History of Adrenal Incidentalomas With and Without Mild Autonomous Cortisol Excess: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: Adrenal incidentalomas are mostly benign nonfunctioning adrenal tumors (NFATs) or adenomas causing mild autonomous cortisol excess (MACE), but their natural history is unclear. Purpose: To summarize the follow-up data of adults with NFAT or MACE to determine the proportions of tumor growth, malignant transformation, and incident changes in hormone function; the prevalence of incident cardiometabolic comorbid conditions; and mortality. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and Scopus (January 1990 to February 2019) and bibliographies of identified articles, without language restriction. Study Selection: Studies that included 20 or more conservatively managed patients with NFAT or MACE and reported outcomes at baseline and after at least 12 months of follow-up. Data Extraction: Pairs of reviewers extracted outcomes and assessed methodological quality. Data Synthesis: Thirty-two studies reported outcomes of 4121 patients with NFAT or MACE, 61.5% of whom were women; the mean age was 60.2 years, and mean follow-up was 50.2 months. Mean tumor growth was 2 mm over 52.8 months. Clinically significant tumor enlargement (≥10 mm) occurred in 2.5% of patients, and none developed adrenal cancer. Clinically overt hormone excess was unlikely to develop (<0.1%) in patients with NFAT or MACE. Only 4.3% of patients with NFAT developed MACE, and preexisting MACE was unlikely to resolve (<0.1%). Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes were highly prevalent (60.0%, 42.0%, 33.7%, and 18.1% of patients, respectively) and were more likely to develop and worsen in MACE than NFAT. New cardiovascular events were more prevalent in MACE (15.5%) than NFAT (6.4%). Mortality was 11.2% and was similar between NFAT and MACE. Limitation: Evidence was scarce, and definitions of MACE and comorbid conditions were heterogeneous. Conclusion: During follow-up, NFAT and MACE do not show clinically relevant changes in size or hormonal function, but they may carry an increased risk for cardiometabolic comorbid conditions. Primary Funding Source: None.

Choosing a Reduced-Intensity Conditioning Regimen for Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation, Fludarabine/Busulfan versus Fludarabine Melphalan: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Fludarabine with busulfan (FB) or melphalan (FM) are 2 more commonly used reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens for allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HCT).We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing these 2 RIC regimens. We searched electronic databases from inception through November 1, 2017 for literature searches to identify relevant studies. A DerSimonian random effects model was used to measure efficacy outcomes; hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Seven studies, including a total of 1955 patients, met criteria for inclusion, of which 6 were included in the overall pooled analysis because of repetition of some patients in 2 studies. Three studies were included in the subgroup analysis of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML)/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and 2 in the subgroup analysis of lymphoid malignancies. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were not statistically significantly different between the 2 RIC regimens in analysis of all studies. However, OS was better with FM in subgroup analysis of AML/MDS studies (HR, .83; 95% CI, .73 to .95). Nonrelapse mortality was lower with FB (HR, .64; 95% CI, .46 to .89), whereas relapse was lower with FM (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.06) in the analysis of all studies. This meta-analysis shows that FB and FM are associated with a similar OS in patients undergoing HCT. Relapse rates are lower with FM but at the cost of higher nonrelapse mortality.

Diagnostic accuracy of the McGill thyroid nodule score in paediatric patients.

INTRODUCTION: Thyroid cancer is the most common paediatric endocrine cancer; accurate diagnosis and prompt management of paediatric thyroid nodules is critical. The McGill Thyroid Nodule Score (MTNS), based upon clinical, ultrasound (US) and cytology criteria, has recently been modified and studied in a pilot paediatric group with good results. We aim to describe the diagnostic accuracy of the paediatric modified MTNS (PMTNS) in a large paediatric cohort. METHODS: We utilized an established retrospective cohort between 1996 and 2015 of 99 patients ≤21 years old with 131 thyroid nodules. Two experienced paediatric radiologists, blinded to pathology and radiology reports, reviewed US features. We abstracted cytology, histology and laboratory results, assigning each nodule a PMTNS. PMTNS performance was compared to FNA and histology. RESULTS: Approximately 33% of nodules were malignant. The cohort was predominantly adolescent (mean age 15.4 ± 3.8 years). The average PMTNS for malignant and benign nodules, based on final histology, was 12.7 ± 4.3 and 1.7 ± 2.9, respectively. A PMTNS ≥8 resulted in a 93.2% sensitivity and 93.1% specificity for detecting malignancy, while a PMTNS ≥9 resulted in a 90.9% sensitivity and 96.6% specificity. However, Bethesda cytology category ≥4 independently had a 97.7% sensitivity and 94.0% specificity for detecting malignancy. The PMTNS had diminishing diagnostic accuracy in younger children compared with older children. CONCLUSION: Paediatric modified McGill Thyroid Nodule Score predicts malignancy, perhaps due to the score's emphasis on cytology results; however, the score is less accurate in younger patients. While cytology results remain reliable, further work is needed to develop a non-invasive scoring system to predict malignancy in children.