Developing a logistic regression model to predict spontaneous preterm birth from maternal socio-demographic and obstetric history at initial pregnancy registration.

BACKGROUND: Current predictive machine learning techniques for spontaneous preterm birth heavily rely on a history of previous preterm birth and/or costly techniques such as fetal fibronectin and ultrasound measurement of cervical length to the disadvantage of those considered at low risk and/or those who have no access to more expensive screening tools. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a predictive model for spontaneous preterm delivery < 37 weeks using socio-demographic and clinical data readily available at booking -an approach which could be suitable for all women regardless of their previous obstetric history. METHODS: We developed a logistic regression model using seven feature variables derived from maternal socio-demographic and obstetric history from a preterm birth (n = 917) and a matched full-term (n = 100) cohort in 2018 and 2020 at a tertiary obstetric unit in the UK. A three-fold cross-validation technique was applied with subsets for data training and testing in Python® (version 3.8) using the most predictive factors. The model performance was then compared to the previously published predictive algorithms. RESULTS: The retrospective model showed good predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.83) for spontaneous preterm birth, with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.66-0.76) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.88) respectively based on seven variables: maternal age, BMI, ethnicity, smoking, gestational type, substance misuse and parity/obstetric history. CONCLUSION: Pending further validation, our observations suggest that key maternal demographic features, incorporated into a traditional mathematical model, have promising predictive utility for spontaneous preterm birth in pregnant women in our region without the need for cervical length and/or fetal fibronectin.

Perception and experiences of adolescent mothers and communities in caring for their preterm babies: findings from an in-depth study in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: A significant concern for Bangladesh is the high prevalence of adolescent pregnancy and the associated negative consequences for mother and baby, including a teen-related increased risk of preterm birth (PTB). Bangladesh also has one of the highest incidences of PTB (19%). Despite these high numbers of adolescent pregnancies and PTB, little is reported about the experiences of adolescent mothers in caring for their preterm babies, and the interventions needed to support them. The aim of this study was to explore gaps and opportunities for improved care for preterm babies among adolescent mothers and communities in rural Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study in rural villages of Baliakandi sub-district of Bangladesh. Data collection involved in-depth interviews with adolescent mothers of premature and term babies, adult mothers with premature babies, and family members (n = 36); focus groups with community members (n = 5); and key informant interviews with healthcare providers (n = 13). Adolescent mothers with term and adult mothers with PTBs were included to elicit similarities and differences in understanding and care practices of PTB. A thematic approach was used for data analysis. RESULTS: We explored two major themes- perceptions and understanding of PTB; care practices and care-seeking for illnesses. We observed gaps and variations in understanding of preterm birth (length of gestation, appearance, causes, problems faced) and care practices (thermal management, feeding, weight monitoring) among all, but particularly among adolescents. Immediate natal and marital-kins were prominent in the narratives of adolescents as sources of informational and instrumental support. The use of multiple providers and delays in care-seeking from trained providers for sick preterm babies was noted, often modulated by the perception of severity of illness, cost, convenience, and quality of services. Health systems challenges included lack of equipment and trained staff in facilities to provide special care to preterm babies. CONCLUSION: A combination of factors including local knowledge, socio-cultural practices and health systems challenges influenced knowledge of, and care for, preterm babies among adolescent and adult mothers. Strategies to improve birth outcomes will require increased awareness among adolescents, women, and families about PTB and improvement in quality of PTB services at health facilities.

Research prioritisation on prevention and management of preterm birth in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) with a special focus on Bangladesh using the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method.

Background: Fifteen million babies are born preterm globally each year, with 81% occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Preterm birth complications are the leading cause of newborn deaths and significantly impact health, quality of life, and costs of health services. Improving outcomes for newborns and their families requires prioritising research for developing practical, scalable solutions, especially in low-resource settings such as Bangladesh. We aimed to identify research priorities related to preventing and managing preterm birth in LMICs for 2021-2030, with a special focus on Bangladesh. Methods: We adopted the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to set research priorities for preventing and managing preterm birth. Seventy-six experts submitted 490 research questions online, which we collated into 95 unique questions and sent for scoring to all experts. A hundred and nine experts scored the questions using five pre-selected criteria: answerability, effectiveness, deliverability, maximum potential for burden reduction, and effect on equity. We calculated weighted and unweighted research priority scores and average expert agreement to generate a list of top-ranked research questions for LMICs and Bangladesh. Results: Health systems and policy research dominated the top 20 identified priorities for LMICs, such as understanding and improving uptake of the facility and community-based Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC), promoting breastfeeding, improving referral and transport networks, evaluating the impact of the use of skilled attendants, quality improvement activities, and exploring barriers to antenatal steroid use. Several of the top 20 questions also focused on screening high-risk women or the general population of women, understanding the causes of preterm birth, or managing preterm babies with illnesses (jaundice, sepsis and retinopathy of prematurity). There was a high overlap between research priorities in LMICs and Bangladesh. Conclusions: This exercise, aimed at identifying priorities for preterm birth prevention and management research in LMICs, especially in Bangladesh, found research on improving the care of preterm babies to be more important in reducing the burden of preterm birth and accelerating the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 target of newborn deaths, by 2030.

Impaired autophagy with augmented apoptosis in a Th1/Th2-imbalanced placental micromilieu is associated with spontaneous preterm birth.

Background: Despite decades of research, the pathogenesis of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB) remains largely unknown. Limited currently available data on PTB pathogenesis are based on rodent models, which do not accurately reflect the complexity of the human placenta across gestation. While much study has focused on placental infection and inflammation associated with PTB, two key potentially important cellular events in the placenta-apoptosis and autophagy-remained less explored. Understanding the role of these processes in the human placenta may unravel currently ill-understood processes in the pathomechanism of PTB. Methods: To address this necessity, we conducted qRT-PCR and ELISA assays on placental villous tissue from 20 spontaneous preterm and 20 term deliveries, to assess the inter-relationships between inflammation, apoptosis, and autophagy in villous tissue in order to clarify their roles in the pathogenesis of PTB. Results: We found disrupted balance between pro-apoptotic BAX and anti-apoptotic BCL2 gene/protein expression in preterm placenta, which was associated with significant reduction of BCL2 and increase of BAX proteins along with upregulation of active CASP3 and CASP8 suggesting augmented apoptosis in PTB. In addition, we detected impaired autophagy in the same samples, evidenced by significant accumulation of autophagosome cargo protein p62/SQSTM1 in the preterm villous placentas, which was associated with simultaneous downregulation of an essential autophagy gene ATG7 and upregulation of Ca2+-activated cysteine protease CAPN1. Placental aggregation of p62 was inversely correlated with newborn birth weight, suggesting a potential link between placental autophagy impairment and fetal development. These two aberrations were detected in a micromilieu where the genes of the Th2 cytokines IL10 and IL13 were downregulated, suggesting an alteration in the Th1/Th2 immune balance in the preterm placenta. Conclusion: Taken together, our observations suggest that impaired autophagy and augmented apoptosis in a Th1/Th2 imbalanced placental micro-environment may be associated with the pathogenesis of spontaneous PTB.

Visualisation of the insertion of a membrane for the treatment of preterm rupture of fetal membranes using a synthetic model of a pregnant uterus.

Preterm premature rupture of fetal membranes is a leading cause of preterm delivery. Preterm labour can compromise fetal survival, and even if a pregnancy affected by preterm premature rupture of fetal membrane continues, major complications associated with leakage of amniotic fluid and risk of infection can affect the normal development and survival of the baby. There are limited management options for preterm premature rupture of fetal membrane other than delivery of the baby if ascending infection (chorioamnionitis) is suspected. We have previously reported the development and characterisation of an implantable membrane with the aim of using it to occlude the internal os of the cervix, in order to prevent amniotic fluid loss, allow fluid reaccumulation and reduce the risk of chorioamnionitis. For this, an electrospun biocompatible and distensible bilayer membrane was designed with mechanical properties similar to the human amniotic membrane. In this study, we consider the effects of sterilization on the membrane, how to insert the membrane and visualise it using routine clinical methods. To do this, we used e-beam sterilisation and examined the ability of the membrane to adhere to ex vivo human cervical tissues. We also studied its insertion into a custom-synthesised model of a 20-week pregnant uterus and imaged the membrane using ultrasound. Sterilisation produced minor effects on physical and mechanical properties, but these did not affect the capacity of the membrane to be sutured or to provide a fluid barrier. We demonstrated that fibrin glue can successfully adhere the bilayer membrane to cervical tissues. Finally, we demonstrated that the membrane can be inserted through the cervix as well as visualized in place using ultrasound imaging and an endoscope. In summary, we suggest this membrane is a candidate for further development in an appropriate animal model, supported by appropriate imaging, to precede possible future human studies if judged to demonstrate satisfactory safety and efficacy profiles.