Incorporating COVID-19 into Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance Systems, Belize, Kenya, Ethiopia, Peru, and Liberia, 2020-2021.

Existing acute febrile illness (AFI) surveillance systems can be leveraged to identify and characterize emerging pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with ministries of health and implementing partners in Belize, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, and Peru to adapt AFI surveillance systems to generate COVID-19 response information. Staff at sentinel sites collected epidemiologic data from persons meeting AFI criteria and specimens for SARS-CoV-2 testing. A total of 5,501 patients with AFI were enrolled during March 2020-October 2021; >69% underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing. Percentage positivity for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4% (87/2,151, Kenya) to 19% (22/115, Ethiopia). We show SARS-CoV-2 testing was successfully integrated into AFI surveillance in 5 low- to middle-income countries to detect COVID-19 within AFI care-seeking populations. AFI surveillance systems can be used to build capacity to detect and respond to both emerging and endemic infectious disease threats.

Malaria hospitalisation in East Africa: age, phenotype and transmission intensity.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity. METHODS: Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models. RESULTS: 52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Impact of 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction on Pneumococcal Carriage and Antibiotic Susceptibility Patterns Among Children Aged <5 Years and Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection: Kenya, 2009-2013.

BACKGROUND: Kenya introduced 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) among children <1 year in 2011 with catch-up vaccination among children 1-4 years in some areas. We assessed changes in pneumococcal carriage and antibiotic susceptibility patterns in children <5 years and adults. METHODS: During 2009-2013, we performed annual cross-sectional pneumococcal carriage surveys in 2 sites: Kibera (children <5 years) and Lwak (children <5 years, adults). Only Lwak had catch-up vaccination. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (adults only) swabs underwent culture for pneumococci; isolates were serotyped. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed on isolates from 2009 and 2013; penicillin nonsusceptible pneumococci (PNSP) was defined as penicillin-intermediate or -resistant. Changes in pneumococcal carriage by age (<1 year, 1-4 years, adults), site, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status (adults only) were calculated using modified Poisson regression, with 2009-2010 as baseline. RESULTS: We enrolled 2962 children (2073 in Kibera, 889 in Lwak) and 2590 adults (2028 HIV+, 562 HIV-). In 2013, PCV10-type carriage was 10.3% (Lwak) to 14.6% (Kibera) in children <1 year and 13.8% (Lwak) to 18.7% (Kibera) in children 1-4 years. This represents reductions of 60% and 63% among children <1 year and 52% and 60% among children 1-4 years in Kibera and Lwak, respectively. In adults, PCV10-type carriage decreased from 12.9% to 2.8% (HIV+) and from 11.8% to 0.7% (HIV-). Approximately 80% of isolates were PNSP, both in 2009 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: PCV10-type carriage declined in children <5 years and adults post-PCV10 introduction. However, PCV10-type and PNSP carriage persisted in children regardless of catch-up vaccination.

Indirect Effects of 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Adult Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Rural Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Data on pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) indirect effects in low-income countries with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden are limited. We examined adult pneumococcal pneumonia incidence before and after PCV introduction in Kenya in 2011. METHODS: From 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016, we conducted surveillance for acute respiratory infection (ARI) among ~12 000 adults (≥18 years) in western Kenya, where HIV prevalence is ~17%. ARI cases (cough or difficulty breathing or chest pain, plus temperature ≥38.0°C or oxygen saturation <90%) presenting to a clinic underwent blood culture and pneumococcal urine antigen testing (UAT). We calculated ARI incidence and adjusted for healthcare seeking. The proportion of ARI cases with pneumococcus detected among those with complete testing (blood culture and UAT) was multiplied by adjusted ARI incidence to estimate pneumococcal pneumonia incidence. RESULTS: Pre-PCV (2008-2010) crude and adjusted ARI incidences were 3.14 and 5.30/100 person-years-observation (pyo), respectively. Among ARI cases, 39.0% (340/872) had both blood culture and UAT; 21.2% (72/340) had pneumococcus detected, yielding a baseline pneumococcal pneumonia incidence of 1.12/100 pyo (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.3). In each post-PCV year (2012-2016), the incidence was significantly lower than baseline; with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.31-0.61) in 2012 and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.09-0.17) in 2016. Similar declines were observed in HIV-infected (IRR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.08-0.22) and HIV-uninfected (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.20) adults. CONCLUSIONS: Adult pneumococcal pneumonia declined in western Kenya following PCV introduction, likely reflecting vaccine indirect effects. Evidence of herd protection is critical for guiding PCV policy decisions in resource-constrained areas.

Inappropriate use of antibiotics for childhood diarrhea case management - Kenya, 2009-2016.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are essential to treat for many childhood bacterial infections; however inappropriate antibiotic use contributes to antimicrobial resistance. For childhood diarrhea, empiric antibiotic use is recommended for dysentery (bloody diarrhea) for which first-line therapy is ciprofloxacin. We assessed inappropriate antibiotic prescription for childhood diarrhea in two primary healthcare facilities in Kenya. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Kenya Population Based Infectious Disease Surveillance system in Asembo (rural, malaria-endemic) and Kibera (urban slum, non-malaria-endemic). We examined records of children aged 2-59 months with diarrhea (≥3 loose stools in 24 h) presenting for care from August 21, 2009 to May 3, 2016, excluding visits with non-diarrheal indications for antibiotics. We examined the frequency of antibiotic over-prescription (antibiotic prescription for non-dysentery), under-prescription (no antibiotic prescription for dysentery), and inappropriate antibiotic selection (non-recommended antibiotic). We examined factors associated with over-prescription and under-prescription using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Of 2808 clinic visits with diarrhea in Asembo, 2685 (95.6%) were non-dysentery visits and antibiotic over-prescription occurred in 52.5%. Of 4697 clinic visits with diarrhea in Kibera, 4518 (96.2%) were non-dysentery and antibiotic over-prescription occurred in 20.0%. Antibiotic under-prescription was noted in 26.8 and 73.7% of dysentery cases in Asembo and Kibera, respectively. Ciprofloxacin was used for 11% of dysentery visits in Asembo and 0% in Kibera. Factors associated with over- and under-prescription varied by site. In Asembo a discharge diagnosis of gastroenteritis was associated with over-prescription (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]:8.23, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 3.68-18.4), while malaria diagnosis was negatively associated with antibiotic over-prescription (aOR 0.37, 95%CI: 0.25-0.54) but positively associated with antibiotic under-prescription (aOR: 1.82, 95%CI: 1.05-3.13). In Kibera, over-prescription was more common among visits with concurrent signs of respiratory infection (difficulty breathing; aOR: 3.97, 95%CI: 1.28-12.30, cough: aOR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.06-1.90) and less common among children aged < 1 year (aOR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.71-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Inappropriate antibiotic prescription was common in childhood diarrhea management and efforts are needed to promote rational antibiotic use. Interventions to improve antibiotic use for diarrhea should consider the influence of malaria diagnosis on clinical decision-making and address both over-prescription, under-prescription, and inappropriate antibiotic selection.

Burden of Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease in a Rural and Urban Site in Kenya, 2009-2014.

BACKGROUND: Invasive infections with nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) lead to bacteremia in children and adults and are an important cause of illness in Africa; however, few data on the burden of NTS bacteremia are available. We sought to determine the burden of invasive NTS disease in a rural and urban setting in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted the study in a population-based surveillance platform in a rural setting in western Kenya (Lwak), and an informal urban settlement in Nairobi (Kibera) from 2009 to 2014. We obtained blood culture specimens from participants presenting with acute lower respiratory tract illness or acute febrile illness to a designated outpatient facility in each site, or any hospital admission for a potentially infectious cause (rural site only). Incidence was calculated using a defined catchment population and adjusting for specimen collection and healthcare-seeking practices. RESULTS: A total of 12 683 and 9524 blood cultures were analyzed from Lwak and Kibera, respectively. Of these, 428 (3.4%) and 533 (5.6%) grew a pathogen; among those, 208 (48.6%) and 70 (13.1%) were positive for NTS in Lwak and Kibera, respectively. Overall, the adjusted incidence of invasive NTS disease was higher in Lwak (839.4 per 100,000 person-years of observation [PYO]) than in Kibera (202.5 per 100,000 PYO). The highest adjusted incidences were observed in children <5 years of age (Lwak 3914.3 per 100,000 PYO and Kibera 997.9 per 100,000 PYO). The highest adjusted annual incidence was 1927.3 per 100,000 PYO (in 2010) in Lwak and 220.5 per 100,000 PYO (in 2011) in Kibera; the lowest incidences were 303.3 and 62.5 per 100,000 PYO, respectively (in 2012). In both sites, invasive NTS disease incidence generally declined over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an extremely high burden of invasive NTS disease in a rural area of Kenya and a lesser, but still substantial, burden in an urban slum. Although the incidences in both sites declined during the study period, invasive NTS infections remain an important cause of morbidity in these settings, particularly among children <5 years old.

The impact of home-based HIV counseling and testing on care-seeking and incidence of common infectious disease syndromes in rural western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: In much of Africa, most individuals living with HIV do not know their status. Home-based counseling and testing (HBCT) leads to more HIV-infected people learning their HIV status. However, there is little data on whether knowing one's HIV-positive status necessarily leads to uptake of HIV care, which could in turn, lead to a reduction in the prevalence of common infectious disease syndromes. METHODS: In 2008, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) offered HBCT to individuals (aged ≥13 years) under active surveillance for infectious disease syndromes in Lwak in rural western Kenya. HIV test results were linked to morbidity and healthcare-seeking data collected by field workers through bi-weekly home visits. We analyzed changes in healthcare seeking behaviors using proportions, and incidence (expressed as episodes per person-year) of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI), acute febrile illness (AFI) and diarrhea among first-time HIV testers in the year before and after HBCT, stratified by their test result and if HIV-positive, whether they sought care at HIV Patient Support Centers (PSCs). RESULTS: Of 9,613 individuals offered HBCT, 6,366 (66%) were first-time testers, 698 (11%) of whom were HIV-infected. One year after HBCT, 50% of HIV-infected persons had enrolled at PSCs - 92% of whom had started cotrimoxazole and 37% of those eligible for antiretroviral treatment had initiated therapy. Among HIV-infected persons enrolled in PSCs, AFI and diarrhea incidence decreased in the year after HBCT (rate ratio [RR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77 - 0.91 and RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73 - 0.98, respectively). Among HIV-infected persons not attending PSCs and among HIV-uninfected persons, decreases in incidence were significantly lower. While decreases also occurred in rates of respiratory illnesses among HIV-positive persons in care, there were similar decreases in the other two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Large scale HBCT enabled a large number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons to know their HIV status, leading to a change in care seeking behavior and ultimately a decrease in incidence of common infectious disease syndromes through appropriate treatment and care.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus infection in rural and urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Information on the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Africa is limited for crowded urban areas and for rural areas where the prevalence of malaria is high. METHODS: At referral facilities in rural western Kenya and a Nairobi slum, we collected nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swab specimens from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and from asymptomatic controls. Polymerase chain reaction assays were used for detection of viral pathogens. We calculated age-specific ratios of the odds of RSV detection among patients versus the odds among controls. Incidence was expressed as the number of episodes per 1000 person-years of observation. RESULTS: Between March 2007 and February 2011, RSV was detected in 501 of 4012 NP/OP swab specimens (12.5%) from children and adults in the rural site and in 321 of 2744 NP/OP swab specimens (11.7%) from those in the urban site. Among children aged <5 years, RSV was detected more commonly among rural children with SARI (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.3), urban children with SARI (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 3.1-23.6), and urban children with ILI (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6), compared with controls. The incidence of RSV disease was highest among infants with SARI aged <1 year (86.9 and 62.8 episodes per 1000 person-years of observation in rural and urban sites, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An effective RSV vaccine would likely substantially reduce the burden of respiratory illness among children in rural and urban areas in Africa.

The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking in an urban informal settlement in Nairobi and a rural setting in western Kenya.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes and disruptions to healthcare seeking behavior. There are limited studies on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking patterns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in settings with inequitable access to healthcare in rural and urban informal settlements. We investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported healthcare seeking at health facilities and chemists using morbidity data from participants in an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance platform in Asembo in Siaya County, a rural setting in western Kenya and Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi County. We described healthcare seeking patterns before (from 1st January 2016 to 12th March 2020) and during the pandemic (from 13th March 2020 to 31st August 2022) by gender and age for any reported illness and select clinical syndromes using frequencies and percentages. We used a generalized estimating equation with an exchangeable correlation structure to assess the effect of the pandemic on healthcare seeking adjusting for gender and age. Overall, there was a 19% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.79-0.83) decline in odds of seeking healthcare at health facilities for any illness in Asembo during the pandemic, and a 30% (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) decline in Kibera. Similarly, there was a decline in seeking healthcare by clinical syndromes, e.g., for ARI, aOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.73-0.79 in Asembo, and aOR: 0.68; 95% CI:0.64-0.72 in Kibera. The pandemic resulted in increased healthcare seeking at chemists (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.20-1.27 in Asembo, and aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.35-1.46 in Kibera). This study highlights interruptions to healthcare seeking in resource-limited settings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in a substantial decline in seeking care at health facilities, and an increase of the same at chemists.

Long-term impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Kenya: Nasopharyngeal carriage among children in a rural and an urban site six years after introduction.

BACKGROUND: Kenya introduced Synflorix™ (GlaxoSmithKline, PCV10-GSK), a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in 2011, using three primary doses and, in select areas, catch-up campaigns. Surveys conducted 1-2 years post-introduction showed a stable prevalence of pneumococcal colonization, with declines in vaccine-type carriage. However, little is known about the long-term impact of PCV10-GSK in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of pneumococcal carriage among children aged <5 years in November-December 2017 in Kibera (Nairobi informal settlement, no catch-up) and Asembo (rural western Kenya, 2-dose catch-up for children 1-4 years), using the same methods and settings as prior annual surveys from 2009 to 2013. Participants were randomly selected from an ongoing population-based surveillance platform. Nasopharyngeal swabs were frozen in skim milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerin media within 4 h and underwent culture with broth enrichment for pneumococcus. Isolates were serotyped by polymerase chain reaction and Quellung. RESULTS: We enrolled 504 children, including 252 from each site; >90 % of participants had received 3 doses of PCV10-GSK. Pneumococcal colonization was detected in 210 (83.3 %) participants in Kibera and 149 (59.1 %) in Asembo, which was significantly lower than the prevalence observed in 2013 (92.9 % and 85.7 %, respectively). PCV10-GSK serotypes were detected in 35/252 (13.9 %) participants in Kibera and 23/252 (9.1 %) in Asembo, respectively; these prevalences were lower, but not statistically different, from vaccine-type carriage prevalences in 2013 (17.3 % and 13.3 %, respectively). In 2017 in both sites, serotypes 3, 6A, 19A, 19F, and 35B were among the most common serotypes. CONCLUSION: Six years post-PCV10-GSK introduction, the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage among children has decreased, and the impact of PCV10-GSK on vaccine-type carriage has plateaued. Kenya recently changed from PCV10-GSK to Pneumosil™ (Serum Institute of India), a 10-valent PCV that includes serotypes 6A and 19A; these data provide historical context for interpreting changes in vaccine-type carriage following the PCV formulation switch.

Mortality patterns over a 10-year period in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, 2009-2018.

BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are important for evaluating the impact of health interventions. However, data on mortality patterns among populations living in urban informal settlements are limited. OBJECTIVES: To examine the mortality patterns and trends in an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: Using data from a population-based surveillance platform we estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rates for all age groups using person-year-observation (pyo) denominators and using Poisson regression tested for trends in mortality rates over time. We compared associated mortality rates across groups using incidence rate ratios (IRR). Assignment of probable cause(s) of death was done using the InterVA-4 model. RESULTS: We registered 1134 deaths from 2009 to 2018, yielding a crude mortality rate of 4.4 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]4.2-4.7) per 1,000 pyo. Males had higher overall mortality rates than females (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.28-1.62). The highest mortality rate was observed among children aged < 12 months (41.5 per 1,000 pyo; 95% CI 36.6-46.9). All-cause mortality rates among children < 12 months were higher than that of children aged 1-4 years (IRR, 8.5; 95% CI, 6.95-10.35). The overall mortality rate significantly declined over the period, from 6.7 per 1,000 pyo (95% CI, 5.7-7.8) in 2009 to 2.7 (95% CI, 2.0-3.4) per 1,000 pyo in 2018. The most common cause of death was acute respiratory infections (ARI)/pneumonia (18.1%). Among children < 5 years, the ARI/pneumonia deaths rate declined significantly over the study period (5.06 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.61 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.004). Similarly, death due to pulmonary tuberculosis among persons 5 years and above significantly declined (0.98 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.25 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Overall and some cause-specific mortality rates declined over time, representing important public health successes among this population.

Estimating excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic from a population-based infectious disease surveillance in two diverse populations in Kenya, March 2020-December 2021.

Robust data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Africa are relatively scarce. Using data from two well-characterized populations in Kenya we aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The mortality data arise from an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) platform, which has been operational since 2006 in rural western Kenya (Asembo, Siaya County) and an urban informal settlement (Kibera, Nairobi County), Kenya. PBIDS participants were regularly visited at home (2-3 times a year) by field workers who collected demographic data, including deaths. In addition, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews for all identified deaths are conducted. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates before and during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we compared associated mortality rates between the periods using incidence rate ratios. Excess deaths during the COVID-19 period were also estimated by modelling expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19 by applying a negative binomial regression model on historical mortality data from January 2016. Overall and monthly excess deaths were determined using the P-score metric. Spearman correlation was used to assess whether there is a relationship between the generated P-score and COVID-19 positivity rate. The all-cause mortality rate was higher during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in Asembo [9.1 (95% CI, 8.2-10.0) vs. 7.8 (95% CI, 7.3-8.3) per 1000 person-years of observation, pyo]. In Kibera, the all-cause mortality rate was slightly lower during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period [2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-3.2 per 1000 pyo) vs. 3.1; 95% CI, 2.7-3.4 per 1000 pyo)]. An increase in all-cause mortality was observed (incidence rate ratio, IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) in Asembo, unlike in Kibera (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). The notable increase in mortality rate in Asembo was observed among persons aged 50 to 64 years (IRR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.95-3.52), persons aged 65 years and above (5.47; 95% CI, 4.60-6.50) and among females (IRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.46). These age and gender differences were not observed in Kibera. We observed an increase in the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (IRR, 1.45;95% CI, 1.03-2.04), and a reduction in the mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis (IRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.87) among older children and adults in Asembo. There was no statistically significant change in mortality rates due to leading specific causes of death in Kibera. Overall, during the COVID-19 period observed deaths were higher than expected deaths in Asembo (P-score = 6.0%) and lower than expected in Kibera (P-score = -22.3%).Using well-characterized populations in the two diverse geographic locations, we demonstrate a heterogenous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Kenya. We observed more deaths than expected during the COVID-19 period in our rural site in western Kenya contrary to the urban site in Nairobi, the capital city in Kenya.

Dynamic Incidence of Typhoid Fever over a 10-Year Period (2010-2019) in Kibera, an Urban Informal Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya.

Typhoid fever burden can vary over time. Long-term data can inform prevention strategies; however, such data are lacking in many African settings. We reexamined typhoid fever incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) over a 10-year period in Kibera, a densely populated urban informal settlement where a high burden has been previously described. We used data from the Population Based Infectious Diseases Surveillance platform to estimate crude and adjusted incidence rates and prevalence of AMR in nearly 26,000 individuals of all ages. Demographic and healthcare-seeking information was collected through household visits. Blood cultures were processed for patients with acute fever or lower respiratory infection. Between 2010 and 2019, 16,437 participants were eligible for blood culture and 11,848 (72.1%) had a culture performed. Among 11,417 noncontaminated cultures (96.4%), 237 grew Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (2.1%). Overall crude and adjusted incidences were 95 and 188 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo), respectively. Annual crude incidence varied from 144 to 233 between 2010 and 2012 and from 9 to 55 between 2013 and 2018 and reached 130 per 100,000 pyo in 2019. Children 5-9 years old had the highest overall incidence (crude, 208; adjusted, 359 per 100,000 pyo). Among isolates tested, 156 of 217 were multidrug resistant (resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole [71.9%]) and 6 of 223 were resistant to ciprofloxacin (2.7%). Typhoid fever incidence resurged in 2019 after a prolonged period of low rates, with the highest incidence among children. Typhoid fever control measures, including vaccines, could reduce morbidity in this setting.

No Evidence of Acute Dengue Virus Infections at a Rural Site in Western Kenya, 2011 and 2013.

The incidence and spread of dengue virus (DENV) have increased rapidly in recent decades. Dengue is underreported in Africa, but recent outbreaks and seroprevalence data suggest that DENV is widespread there. A lack of ongoing surveillance limits knowledge about its spatial reach and hinders disease control planning. We sought to add data on dengue distribution in Kenya through diagnostic testing of serum specimens from persons with an acute febrile illness (AFI) attending an outpatient clinic in rural western Kenya (Asembo) during rainy seasons. Patients with symptoms not likely to be misclassified as dengue (e.g., diarrhea and anemia), those with a positive diagnostic laboratory results which explained their febrile illness, or those with serum collected more than 5 days after fever onset were excluded. However, febrile patients with a positive malaria smear were included in the study. We used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for DENV and IgM anti-DENV to test for recent infection. Of the 615 serum specimens available for testing, none were dengue positive by either RT-PCR or IgM anti-DENV testing. Dengue did not appear to be a cause of febrile illness in this area of western Kenya, although our relatively small sample size may not have identified DENV infections occurring at low incidence. A more widespread AFI surveillance system that includes dengue diagnostic testing by RT-PCR and antibody-based methods is required to more definitively gauge the size and geographic distribution of DENV infection in western Kenya.

Exploration of risk factors for ceftriaxone resistance in invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella infections in western Kenya.

Multidrug-resistant non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infection has emerged as a prominent cause of invasive infections in Africa. We investigated the prevalence of ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infections, conducted exploratory analysis of risk factors for resistance, and described antimicrobial use in western Kenya. We conducted a secondary analysis of existing laboratory, epidemiology, and clinical data from three independent projects, a malaria vaccine trial, a central nervous system (CNS) study, and the International Emerging Infections Program morbidity surveillance (surveillance program) during 2009-2014. We calculated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ceftriaxone-resistant NTS infections compared with ceftriaxone-susceptible infections. We surveyed hospitals, pharmacies, and animal drug retailers about the availability and use of antimicrobials. In total, 286 invasive NTS infections were identified in the three projects; 43 NTS isolates were ceftriaxone-resistant. The absolute prevalence of ceftriaxone resistance varied among these methodologically diverse projects, with 18% (16/90) of isolates resistant to ceftriaxone in the vaccine trial, 89% (16/18) in the CNS study, and 6% (11/178) in the surveillance program. Invasive ceftriaxone-resistant infections increased over time. Most ceftriaxone-resistant isolates were co-resistant to multiple other antimicrobials. Having an HIV-positive mother (OR = 3.7; CI = 1.2-11.4) and taking trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole for the current illness (OR = 9.6, CI = 1.2-78.9) were significantly associated with acquiring ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infection. Ceftriaxone and other antibiotics were widely prescribed; multiple issues related to prescription practices and misuse were identified. In summary, ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infection is increasing and limiting treatment options for serious infections. Efforts are ongoing to address the urgent need for improved microbiologic diagnostic capacity and an antimicrobial surveillance system in Kenya.

The impact of distance of residence from a peripheral health facility on pediatric health utilisation in rural western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of distance on utilisation of peripheral health facilities for sick child visits in Asembo, rural western Kenya. METHODS: As part of a demographic surveillance system (DSS), censuses of all households in the Asembo population of 55,000 are conducted three times a year, data are collected at all outpatient pediatric visits in seven DSS clinics in Asembo, and all households are GIS-mapped and linkable to a child's unique DSS identification number. Between May 1, 2003 and April 30, 2004, 3501 clinic visits were linked to 2432 children among 10,973 DSS-resident children < 5 years of age. RESULTS: Younger children and children with more severe illnesses travelled further for clinic visits. The median distance travelled varied by clinic. The rate of clinic visits decreased linearly at 0.5 km intervals up to 4 km, after which the rate stabilised. Using Poisson regression, controlling for the nearest DSS clinic for each child, socio-economic status and maternal education, and accounting for household clustering of children, for every 1 km increase in distance of residence from a DSS clinic, the rate of clinic visits decreased by 34% (95% CI, 31-37%) from the previous kilometer. CONCLUSION: Achieving equity in access to health care for children in rural Kenya will require creative strategies to address a significant distance-decay effect in health care utilisation.

Multi-drug resistant non-typhoidal Salmonella associated with invasive disease in western Kenya.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a leading cause of bloodstream infections in Africa, but the various contributions of host susceptibility versus unique pathogen virulence factors are unclear. We used data from a population-based surveillance platform (population ~25,000) between 2007-2014 and NTS genome-sequencing to compare host and pathogen-specific factors between individuals presenting with NTS bacteremia and those presenting with NTS diarrhea. Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 and Salmonella Enteritidis ST11 were the most common isolates. Multi-drug resistant strains of NTS were more commonly isolated from patients presenting with NTS bacteremia compared to NTS diarrhea. This relationship was observed in patients under age five [aOR = 15.16, 95% CI (2.84-81.05), P = 0.001], in patients five years and older, [aOR = 6.70 95% CI (2.25-19.89), P = 0.001], in HIV-uninfected patients, [aOR = 21.61, 95% CI (2.53-185.0), P = 0.005], and in patients infected with Salmonella serogroup B [aOR = 5.96, 95% CI (2.28-15.56), P < 0.001] and serogroup D [aOR = 14.15, 95% CI (1.10-182.7), P = 0.042]. Thus, multi-drug-resistant NTS was strongly associated with bacteremia compared to diarrhea among children and adults. This association was seen in HIV-uninfected individuals infected with either S. Typhimurium or S. Enteritidis. Risk of developing bacteremia from NTS infection may be driven by virulence properties of the Salmonella pathogen.

Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus, Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries. METHODS: Data on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR. RESULTS: Of 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25%) and 159 (30%) were positive for norovirus, 13 (4%) and 31 (6%) for sapovirus, and 28 (8%) and 18 (3%) for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87%) in Lwak and 140 (88%) in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116), followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440) and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879). For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged <5 years (norovirus: 22,225 in Lwak and 17,511 in Kibera; sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera) compared to cases aged ≥5 years. CONCLUSION: Although limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8-3.3 million, 0.45-0.54 million, and 0.77-0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.

The Unrecognized Burden of Influenza in Young Kenyan Children, 2008-2012.

Influenza-associated disease burden among children in tropical sub-Saharan Africa is not well established, particularly outside of the 2009 pandemic period. We estimated the burden of influenza in children aged 0-4 years through population-based surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute lower respiratory tract illness (ALRI). Household members meeting ILI or ALRI case definitions were referred to health facilities for evaluation and collection of nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for influenza testing by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Estimates were adjusted for health-seeking behavior and those with ILI and ALRI who were not tested. During 2008-2012, there were 9,652 person-years of surveillance among children aged 0-4 years. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated hospitalization was 4.3 (95% CI 3.0-6.0) per 1,000 person-years in children aged 0-4 years. Hospitalization rates were highest in the 0-5 month and 6-23 month age groups, at 7.6 (95% CI 3.2-18.2) and 8.4 (95% CI 5.4-13.0) per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated medically attended (inpatient or outpatient) ALRI in children aged 0-4 years was 17.4 (95% CI 14.2-19.7) per 1,000 person-years. Few children who had severe laboratory-confirmed influenza were clinically diagnosed with influenza by the treating clinician in the inpatient (0/33, 0%) or outpatient (1/109, 0.9%) settings. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates from 2008-2012 were 5-10 times higher than contemporaneous U.S. estimates. Many children with danger signs were not hospitalized; thus, influenza-associated severe disease rates in Kenyan children are likely higher than hospital-based estimates suggest.

Linking human health and livestock health: a "one-health" platform for integrated analysis of human health, livestock health, and economic welfare in livestock dependent communities.

BACKGROUND: For most rural households in sub-Saharan Africa, healthy livestock play a key role in averting the burden associated with zoonotic diseases, and in meeting household nutritional and socio-economic needs. However, there is limited understanding of the complex nutritional, socio-economic, and zoonotic pathways that link livestock health to human health and welfare. Here we describe a platform for integrated human health, animal health and economic welfare analysis designed to address this challenge. We provide baseline epidemiological data on disease syndromes in humans and the animals they keep, and provide examples of relationships between human health, animal health and household socio-economic status. METHOD: We designed a study to obtain syndromic disease data in animals along with economic and behavioral information for 1500 rural households in Western Kenya already participating in a human syndromic disease surveillance study. Data collection started in February 2013, and each household is visited bi-weekly and data on four human syndromes (fever, jaundice, diarrhea and respiratory illness) and nine animal syndromes (death, respiratory, reproductive, musculoskeletal, nervous, urogenital, digestive, udder disorders, and skin disorders in cattle, sheep, goats and chickens) are collected. Additionally, data from a comprehensive socio-economic survey is collected every 3 months in each of the study households. FINDINGS: Data from the first year of study showed 93% of the households owned at least one form of livestock (55%, 19%, 41% and 88% own cattle, sheep, goats and chickens respectively). Digestive disorders, mainly diarrhea episodes, were the most common syndromes observed in cattle, goats and sheep, accounting for 56% of all livestock syndromes, followed by respiratory illnesses (18%). In humans, respiratory illnesses accounted for 54% of all illnesses reported, followed by acute febrile illnesses (40%) and diarrhea illnesses (5%). While controlling for household size, the incidence of human illness increased 1.31-fold for every 10 cases of animal illness or death observed (95% CI 1.16-1.49). Access and utilization of animal source foods such as milk and eggs were positively associated with the number of cattle and chickens owned by the household. Additionally, health care seeking was correlated with household incomes and wealth, which were in turn correlated with livestock herd size. CONCLUSION: This study platform provides a unique longitudinal dataset that allows for the determination and quantification of linkages between human and animal health, including the impact of healthy animals on human disease averted, malnutrition, household educational attainment, and income levels.