Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model.

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters.

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal-reef fish surveys across a 15°C spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish in communities decreased by ~5% for each 1°C temperature increase across space, or 50% decrease in mean length from 14 to 29°C mean annual SST. Community mean body size change was driven by differential temperature responses within trophic groups and temperature-driven change in their relative abundance. Herbivores, invertivores and planktivores became smaller on average in warmer temperatures, but no trend was found in piscivores. Nearly 25% of the temperature-related community mean size trend was attributable to trophic composition at the warmest sites, but at colder temperatures, this was <1% due to trophic groups being similarly sized. Our findings suggest that small changes in temperature are associated with large changes in fish community composition and body sizes, with important ecological implications.

Multigenerational exposure to warming and fishing causes recruitment collapse, but size diversity and periodic cooling can aid recovery.

Global warming and fisheries harvest are significantly impacting wild fish stocks, yet their interactive influence on population resilience to stress remains unclear. We explored these interactive effects on early-life development and survival by experimentally manipulating the thermal and harvest regimes in 18 zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations over six consecutive generations. Warming advanced development rates across generations, but after three generations, it caused a sudden and large (30-50%) decline in recruitment. This warming impact was most severe in populations where size-selective harvesting reduced the average size of spawners. We then explored whether our observed recruitment decline could be explained by changes in egg size, early egg and larval survival, population sex ratio, and developmental costs. We found that it was most likely driven by temperature-induced shifts in embryonic development rate and fishing-induced male-biased sex ratios. Importantly, once harvest and warming were relaxed, recruitment rates rapidly recovered. Our study suggests that the effects of warming and fishing could have strong impacts on wild stock recruitment, but this may take several generations to manifest. However, resilience of wild populations may be higher if fishing preserves sufficient body size diversity, and windows of suitable temperature periodically occur.

Smaller adult fish size in warmer water is not explained by elevated metabolism.

Fish and other ectotherms living in warmer waters often grow faster as juveniles, mature earlier, but become smaller adults. Known as the temperature-size rule (TSR), this pattern is commonly attributed to higher metabolism in warmer waters, leaving fewer resources for growth. An alternative explanation focuses on growth and reproduction trade-offs across temperatures. We tested these hypotheses by measuring growth, maturation, metabolism and reproductive allocation from zebrafish populations kept at 26 and 30°C across six generations. Zebrafish growth and maturation followed TSR expectations but were not explained by baseline metabolic rate, which converged between temperature treatments after a few generations. Rather, we found that females at 30°C allocated more to reproduction, especially when maturing at the smallest sizes. We show that elevated temperatures do not necessarily increase baseline metabolism if sufficient acclimation is allowed and call for an urgent revision of modelling assumptions used to predict population and ecosystem responses to warming.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming.

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

The Energetic Cost of Reproduction and Its Effect on Optimal Life-History Strategies.

Trade-offs in energy allocation between growth, reproduction, and survival are at the core of life-history theory. While age-specific mortality is considered to be the main determinant of the optimal allocation, some life-history strategies, such as delayed or skipped reproduction, may be better understood when also accounting for reproduction costs. Here, we present a two-pool indeterminate grower model that includes survival and energetic costs of reproduction. The energetic cost sets a minimum reserve required for reproduction, while the survival cost reflects increased mortality from low postreproductive body condition. Three life-history parameters determining age-dependent energy allocation to soma, reserve, and reproduction are optimized, and we show that the optimal strategies can reproduce realistic emergent growth trajectories, maturation ages, and reproductive outputs for fish. The model predicts maturation phase shifts along the gradient of condition-related mortality and shows that increased harvesting will select for earlier maturation and higher energy allocation to reproduction. However, since the energetic reproduction cost sets limits on how early an individual can mature, an increase in fitness at high harvesting can only be achieved by diverting most reserves into reproduction. The model presented here can improve predictions of life-history responses to environmental change and human impacts because key life-history traits such as maturation age and size, maximum body size, and size-specific fecundity emerge dynamically.

The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery.

Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life-history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life-history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards "faster" life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3-40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra- and inter-specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life-history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi-species context, where both age-specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life-history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability.

Migration and isolation during the turbulent Ponto-Caspian Pleistocene create high diversity in the crustacean Paramysis lacustris.

The Ponto-Caspian brackish-water fauna inhabits estuaries and rivers of the Black, Azov and Caspian seas and is fragmented by higher salinity waters and a major interbasin watershed. The fauna is known for the high levels of endemism, complex zoogeographic histories, and as a recent source of successful invasive species. It remains debated whether the Black and Azov Sea brackish-water populations survived unfavourable Pleistocene conditions in multiple separate refugia or whether the two seas were (repeatedly) recolonized from the Caspian. Using microsatellite and mtDNA markers, we demonstrate deep among- and within-basin subdivisions in a widespread Ponto-Caspian mysid crustacean Paramysis lacustris. Five genetic clusters were identified, but their relationships did not reflect the geography of the region. The Azov cluster was the most distinct (4-5% COI divergence), despite its geographic position in the corridor between Black and Caspian seas, and may represent a new species. In the northern Black Sea area, the Dnieper cluster was closer to the Caspian cluster than to the neighbouring Danube-Dniester-Bug populations, suggesting separate colonizations of the Black Sea. Overall, the data implied a predominant gene flow from the east to the Black Sea and highlight the importance of Caspian Sea transgressions in facilitating dispersal. Yet, the presence of distinct lineages in the Black Sea points to the persistence of isolated refugial populations that have gained diagnostic differences under presumably high mutation rates and large population sizes. The unfavourable Pleistocene periods in the Black Sea therefore appear to have promoted diversification of the brackish-water lineages, rather than extirpated them.

Ecological consequences of body size decline in harvested fish species: positive feedback loops in trophic interactions amplify human impact.

Humans are changing marine ecosystems worldwide, both directly through fishing and indirectly through climate change. One of the little explored outcomes of human-induced change involves the decreasing body sizes of fishes. We use a marine ecosystem model to explore how a slow (less than 0.1% per year) decrease in the length of five harvested species could affect species interactions, biomasses and yields. We find that even small decreases in fish sizes are amplified by positive feedback loops in the ecosystem and can lead to major changes in natural mortality. For some species, a total of 4 per cent decrease in length-at-age over 50 years resulted in 50 per cent increase in predation mortality. However, the magnitude and direction in predation mortality changes differed among species and one shrinking species even experienced reduced predation pressure. Nevertheless, 50 years of gradual decrease in body size resulted in 1-35% decrease in biomasses and catches of all shrinking species. Therefore, fisheries management practices that ignore contemporary life-history changes are likely to overestimate long-term yields and can lead to overfishing.

High-resolution app data reveal sustained increases in recreational fishing effort in Europe during and after COVID-19 lockdowns.

It is well recognized that COVID-19 lockdowns impacted human interactions with natural ecosystems. One example is recreational fishing, which, in developed countries, involves approximately 10% of people. Fishing licence sales and observations at angling locations suggest that recreational fishing effort increased substantially during lockdowns. However, the extent and duration of this increase remain largely unknown. We used four years (2018-2021) of high-resolution data from a personal fish-finder device to explore the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on angling effort in four European countries. We show that relative device use and angling effort increased 1.2-3.8-fold during March-May 2020 and generally remained elevated even at the end of 2021. Fishing during the first lockdown also became more frequent on weekdays. Statistical models explained 50-70% of the variation, suggesting that device use and angling effort were relatively consistent and predictable through space and time. Our study demonstrates that recreational fishing behaviour can change substantially and rapidly in response to societal shifts, with profound ecological, human well-being and economic implications. We also show the potential of angler devices and smartphone applications for high-resolution fishing effort analysis and encourage more extensive science and industry collaborations to take advantage of this information.

Opsin gene sequence variation across phylogenetic and population histories in Mysis (Crustacea: Mysida) does not match current light environments or visual-pigment absorbance spectra.

The hypothesis that selection on the opsin gene is efficient in tuning vision to the ambient light environment of an organism was assessed in 49 populations of 12 Mysis crustacean species, inhabiting arctic marine waters, coastal littoral habitats, freshwater lakes ('glacial relicts') and the deep Caspian Sea. Extensive sequence variation was found within and among taxa, but its patterns did not match expectations based on light environments, spectral sensitivity of the visual pigment measured by microspectrophotometry or the history of species and populations. The main split in the opsin gene tree was between lineages I and II, differing in six amino acids. Lineage I was present in marine and Caspian Sea species and in the North American freshwater Mysis diluviana, whereas lineage II was found in the European and circumarctic fresh- and brackish-water Mysis relicta, Mysis salemaai and Mysis segerstralei. Both lineages were present in some populations of M. salemaai and M. segerstralei. Absorbance spectra of the visual pigment in nine populations of the latter three species showed a dichotomy between lake (λ(max) =554-562 nm) and brackish-water (Baltic Sea) populations (λ(max) = 521-535 nm). Judged by the shape of spectra, this difference was not because of different chromophores (A2 vs. A1), but neither did it coincide with the split in the opsin tree (lineages I/II), species identity or current light environments. In all, adaptive evolution of the opsin gene in Mysis could not be demonstrated, but its sequence variation did not conform to a neutral expectation either, suggesting evolutionary constraints and/or unidentified mechanisms of spectral tuning.

Mechanistic Temperature-Size Rule Explanation Should Reconcile Physiological and Mortality Responses to Temperature.

AbstractThe temperature-size rule is one of the universal rules in ecology and states that ectotherms in warmer waters will grow faster as juveniles, mature at smaller sizes and younger ages, and reach smaller maximum body sizes. Many models have unsuccessfully attempted to reproduce temperature-size rule-consistent life histories by using two-term (anabolism and catabolism) Pütter-type growth models, such as the von Bertalanffy. Here, we present a physiologically structured individual growth model, which incorporates an energy budget and optimizes energy allocation to growth, reproduction, and reserves. Growth, maturation, and reproductive output emerge as a result of life-history optimization to specific physiological rates and mortality conditions. To assess which processes can lead to temperature-size rule-type life histories, we simulate 42 scenarios that differ in temperature and body size dependencies of intake, metabolism, and mortality rates. Results show that the temperature-size rule can emerge in two ways. The first way requires both intake and metabolism to increase with temperature, but the temperature-body size interaction of the two rates must lead to relatively faster intake increase in small individuals and relatively larger metabolism increase in large ones. The second way requires only higher temperature-driven natural mortality and faster intake rates in early life (no change in metabolic rates is needed). This selects for faster life histories with earlier maturation and increased reproductive output. Our model provides a novel mechanistic and evolutionary framework for identifying the conditions necessary for the temperature-size rule. It shows that the temperature-size rule is likely to reflect both physiological changes and life-history optimization and that use of von Bertalanffy-type models, which do not include reproduction processes, can hinder our ability to understand and predict ectotherm responses to climate change.

Historical fish survey datasets from productive aquatic ecosystems in Lithuania.

Many inland ecosystems (lakes, rivers, reservoirs, lagoons) around the world undergo regular biological monitoring surveys, including monitoring the abundance, biomass and size structure of fish communities. Yet, the majority of fish monitoring datasets for inland ecosystems remain inaccessible. This is especially true for historical datasets from the early and middle 20th century, despite their immense importance for establishing baselines of ecosystem status (e.g., prior to manifestations of climate change and intensive fisheries impacts), assessing the current status of fish stocks, and more generally determining temporal changes in fish populations. Here we present a newly digitized fish monitoring dataset for two major Lithuanian inland ecosystems - Curonian Lagoon and Kaunas Water Reservoir. The data comprises >60000 records from >800 fish surveys conducted during 1950s to 1980s, using a range of fishing gears and sampling methods. We introduce three different definitions for survey methods to describe the level of detail for each fish community study. Method 1 surveys include individual fish sizes and weights, Method 2 surveys record frequencies of fish in length or weight groups, whereas Method 3 only records the total catch biomass of a given species. The majority of historical and currently collected fish survey data can be attributed to one of these three methods and we present R codes to convert data from higher resolution methods into aggregated data formats, to facilitate data sharing. In addition, commercial fisheries catch data for years that were surveyed are also provided. The data presented here can facilitate ecological and fisheries analyses of baseline ecosystem status before the onsets of rapid warming and eutrophication, exploration of fish size structure, evaluation of different catch per unit effort standardization methods, and assessment of population responses to commercial fishing.

A DNA barcode reference library for endemic Ponto-Caspian amphipods.

The Ponto-Caspian region is an endemicity hotspot that harbours several crustacean radiations, among which amphipods are the most diverse. These poorly known species are severely threatened in their native range, while at the same time they are invading European inland waters with significant ecological consequences. A proper taxonomic knowledge of this fauna is paramount for its conservation within the native region and monitoring outside of it. Here, we assemble a DNA barcode reference library for nearly 60% of all known Ponto-Caspian amphipod species. We use several methods to define molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs), based on two mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S), and assess their congruence with current species-level taxonomy based on morphology. Depending on the method, we find that 54-69% of species had congruent morpho-molecular boundaries. The cases of incongruence resulted from lumping distinct morphospecies into a single MOTU (7-27%), splitting a morphospecies into several MOTUs (4-28%), or both (4-11%). MOTUs defined by distance-based methods without a priori divergence thresholds showed the highest congruence with morphological taxonomy. These results indicate that DNA barcoding is valuable for clarifying the diversity of Ponto-Caspian amphipods, but reveals that extensive work is needed to resolve taxonomic uncertainties. Our study advances the DNA barcode reference library for the European aquatic biota, paving the way towards improved taxonomic knowledge needed to enhance monitoring and conservation efforts.

Community size structure varies with predator-prey size relationships and temperature across Australian reefs.

Climate change and fisheries exploitation are dramatically changing the abundances, species composition, and size spectra of fish communities. We explore whether variation in 'abundance size spectra', a widely studied ecosystem feature, is influenced by a parameter theorized to govern the shape of size-structured ecosystems-the relationship between the sizes of predators and their prey (predator-prey mass ratios, or PPMRs). PPMR estimates are lacking for avast number of fish species, including at the scale of trophic guilds. Using measurements of 8128 prey items in gut contents of 97 reef fish species, we established predator-prey mass ratios (PPMRs) for four major trophic guilds (piscivores, invertivores, planktivores, and herbivores) using linear mixed effects models. To assess the theoretical predictions that higher community-level PPMRs leads to shallower size spectrum slopes, we compared observations of both ecosystem metrics for ~15,000 coastal reef sites distributed around Australia. PPMRs of individual fishes were remarkably high (median ~71,000), with significant variation between different trophic guilds (~890 for piscivores; ~83,000 for planktivores), and ~8700 for whole communities. Community-level PPMRs were positively related to size spectrum slopes, broadly consistent with theory, however, this pattern was also influenced by the latitudinal temperature gradient. Tropical reefs showed a stronger relationship between community-level PPMRs and community size spectrum slopes than temperate reefs. The extent that these patterns apply outside Australia and consequences for community structure and dynamics are key areas for future investigation.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution.

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Integrative Approaches to Understanding Organismal Responses to Aquatic Deoxygenation.

AbstractOxygen bioavailability is declining in aquatic systems worldwide as a result of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. For aquatic organisms, the consequences are poorly known but are likely to reflect both direct effects of declining oxygen bioavailability and interactions between oxygen and other stressors, including two-warming and acidification-that have received substantial attention in recent decades and that typically accompany oxygen changes. Drawing on the collected papers in this symposium volume ("An Oxygen Perspective on Climate Change"), we outline the causes and consequences of declining oxygen bioavailability. First, we discuss the scope of natural and predicted anthropogenic changes in aquatic oxygen levels. Although modern organisms are the result of long evolutionary histories during which they were exposed to natural oxygen regimes, anthropogenic change is now exposing them to more extreme conditions and novel combinations of low oxygen with other stressors. Second, we identify behavioral and physiological mechanisms that underlie the interactive effects of oxygen with other stressors, and we assess the range of potential organismal responses to oxygen limitation that occur across levels of biological organization and over multiple timescales. We argue that metabolism and energetics provide a powerful and unifying framework for understanding organism-oxygen interactions. Third, we conclude by outlining a set of approaches for maximizing the effectiveness of future work, including focusing on long-term experiments using biologically realistic variation in experimental factors and taking truly cross-disciplinary and integrative approaches to understanding and predicting future effects.

Interacting forces of predation and fishing affect species' maturation size.

Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing-induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size-structured predation and cannibalism) in complex ecosystems undergoing rapid change.Changes in maturation size from fishing and predation have previously been explored with multi-species physiologically structured models but assumed separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales. To assess the eco-evolutionary impact of fishing and predation at the same timescale, we developed a stochastic physiologically size-structured food-web model, where new phenotypes are introduced randomly through time enabling dynamic simulation of species' relative maturation sizes under different types of selection pressures.Using the model, we carried out a fully factorial in silico experiment to assess how maturation size would change in the absence and presence of both fishing and predation (including cannibalism). We carried out ten replicate stochastic simulations exposed to all combinations of fishing and predation in a model community of nine interacting fish species ranging in their maximum sizes from 10 g to 100 kg. We visualized and statistically analyzed the results using linear models.The effects of fishing on maturation size depended on whether or not predation was enabled and differed substantially across species. Fishing consistently reduced the maturation sizes of two largest species whether or not predation was enabled and this decrease was seen even at low fishing intensities (F = 0.2 per year). In contrast, the maturation sizes of the three smallest species evolved to become smaller through time but this happened regardless of the levels of predation or fishing. For the four medium-size species, the effect of fishing was highly variable with more species showing significant and larger fishing effects in the presence of predation.Ultimately our results suggest that the interactive effects of predation and fishing can have marked effects on species' maturation sizes, but that, at least for the largest species, predation does not counterbalance the evolutionary effect of fishing. Our model also produced relative maturation sizes that are broadly consistent with empirical estimates for many fish species.

Fish body sizes change with temperature but not all species shrink with warming.

Ectotherms generally shrink under experimental warming, but whether this pattern extends to wild populations is uncertain. We analysed ten million visual survey records, spanning the Australian continent and multiple decades and comprising the most common coastal reef fishes (335 species). We found that temperature indeed drives spatial and temporal changes in fish body size, but not consistently in the negative fashion expected. Around 55% of species were smaller in warmer waters (especially among small-bodied species), while 45% were bigger. The direction of a species' response to temperature through space was generally consistent with its response to temperature increase through time at any given location, suggesting that spatial trends could help forecast fish responses to long-term warming. However, temporal changes were about ten times faster than spatial trends (~4% versus ~40% body size change per 1 °C change through space and time, respectively). The rapid and variable responses of fish size to warming may herald unexpected impacts on ecosystem restructuring, with potentially greater consequences than if all species were shrinking.