Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data.

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lockdown becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized, and thus, it is compatible with privacy-preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable of enhancing the performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the mobile applications.

3D chromatin conformation correlates with replication timing and is conserved in resting cells.

Although chromatin folding is known to be of functional importance to control the gene expression program, less is known regarding its interplay with DNA replication. Here, using Circular Chromatin Conformation Capture combined with high-throughput sequencing, we identified megabase-sized self-interacting domains in the nucleus of a human lymphoblastoid cell line, as well as in cycling and resting peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Strikingly, the boundaries of those domains coincide with early-initiation zones in every cell types. Preferential interactions have been observed between the consecutive early-initiation zones, but also between those separated by several tens of megabases. Thus, the 3D conformation of chromatin is strongly correlated with the replication timing along the whole chromosome. We furthermore provide direct clues that, in addition to the timing value per se, the shape of the timing profile at a given locus defines its set of genomic contacts. As this timing-related scheme of chromatin organization exists in lymphoblastoid cells, resting and cycling PBMC, this indicates that it is maintained several weeks or months after the previous S-phase. Lastly, our work highlights that the major chromatin changes accompanying PBMC entry into cell cycle occur while keeping largely unchanged the long-range chromatin contacts.

Megabase replication domains along the human genome: relation to chromatin structure and genome organisation.

In higher eukaryotes, the absence of specific sequence motifs, marking the origins of replication has been a serious hindrance to the understanding of (i) the mechanisms that regulate the spatio-temporal replication program, and (ii) the links between origins activation, chromatin structure and transcription. In this chapter, we review the partitioning of the human genome into megabased-size replication domains delineated as N-shaped motifs in the strand compositional asymmetry profiles. They collectively span 28.3% of the genome and are bordered by more than 1,000 putative replication origins. We recapitulate the comparison of this partition of the human genome with high-resolution experimental data that confirms that replication domain borders are likely to be preferential replication initiation zones in the germline. In addition, we highlight the specific distribution of experimental and numerical chromatin marks along replication domains. Domain borders correspond to particular open chromatin regions, possibly encoded in the DNA sequence, and around which replication and transcription are highly coordinated. These regions also present a high evolutionary breakpoint density, suggesting that susceptibility to breakage might be linked to local open chromatin fiber state. Altogether, this chapter presents a compartmentalization of the human genome into replication domains that are landmarks of the human genome organization and are likely to play a key role in genome dynamics during evolution and in pathological situations.

Replication fork polarity gradients revealed by megabase-sized U-shaped replication timing domains in human cell lines.

In higher eukaryotes, replication program specification in different cell types remains to be fully understood. We show for seven human cell lines that about half of the genome is divided in domains that display a characteristic U-shaped replication timing profile with early initiation zones at borders and late replication at centers. Significant overlap is observed between U-domains of different cell lines and also with germline replication domains exhibiting a N-shaped nucleotide compositional skew. From the demonstration that the average fork polarity is directly reflected by both the compositional skew and the derivative of the replication timing profile, we argue that the fact that this derivative displays a N-shape in U-domains sustains the existence of large-scale gradients of replication fork polarity in somatic and germline cells. Analysis of chromatin interaction (Hi-C) and chromatin marker data reveals that U-domains correspond to high-order chromatin structural units. We discuss possible models for replication origin activation within U/N-domains. The compartmentalization of the genome into replication U/N-domains provides new insights on the organization of the replication program in the human genome.

Replication-associated mutational asymmetry in the human genome.

During evolution, mutations occur at rates that can differ between the two DNA strands. In the human genome, nucleotide substitutions occur at different rates on the transcribed and non-transcribed strands that may result from transcription-coupled repair. These mutational asymmetries generate transcription-associated compositional skews. To date, the existence of such asymmetries associated with replication has not yet been established. Here, we compute the nucleotide substitution matrices around replication initiation zones identified as sharp peaks in replication timing profiles and associated with abrupt jumps in the compositional skew profile. We show that the substitution matrices computed in these regions fully explain the jumps in the compositional skew profile when crossing initiation zones. In intergenic regions, we observe mutational asymmetries measured as differences between complementary substitution rates; their sign changes when crossing initiation zones. These mutational asymmetries are unlikely to result from cryptic transcription but can be explained by a model based on replication errors and strand-biased repair. In transcribed regions, mutational asymmetries associated with replication superimpose on the previously described mutational asymmetries associated with transcription. We separate the substitution asymmetries associated with both mechanisms, which allows us to determine for the first time in eukaryotes, the mutational asymmetries associated with replication and to reevaluate those associated with transcription. Replication-associated mutational asymmetry may result from unequal rates of complementary base misincorporation by the DNA polymerases coupled with DNA mismatch repair (MMR) acting with different efficiencies on the leading and lagging strands. Replication, acting in germ line cells during long evolutionary times, contributed equally with transcription to produce the present abrupt jumps in the compositional skew. These results demonstrate that DNA replication is one of the major processes that shape human genome composition.

Evidence for sequential and increasing activation of replication origins along replication timing gradients in the human genome.

Genome-wide replication timing studies have suggested that mammalian chromosomes consist of megabase-scale domains of coordinated origin firing separated by large originless transition regions. Here, we report a quantitative genome-wide analysis of DNA replication kinetics in several human cell types that contradicts this view. DNA combing in HeLa cells sorted into four temporal compartments of S phase shows that replication origins are spaced at 40 kb intervals and fire as small clusters whose synchrony increases during S phase and that replication fork velocity (mean 0.7 kb/min, maximum 2.0 kb/min) remains constant and narrowly distributed through S phase. However, multi-scale analysis of a genome-wide replication timing profile shows a broad distribution of replication timing gradients with practically no regions larger than 100 kb replicating at less than 2 kb/min. Therefore, HeLa cells lack large regions of unidirectional fork progression. Temporal transition regions are replicated by sequential activation of origins at a rate that increases during S phase and replication timing gradients are set by the delay and the spacing between successive origin firings rather than by the velocity of single forks. Activation of internal origins in a specific temporal transition region is directly demonstrated by DNA combing of the IGH locus in HeLa cells. Analysis of published origin maps in HeLa cells and published replication timing and DNA combing data in several other cell types corroborate these findings, with the interesting exception of embryonic stem cells where regions of unidirectional fork progression seem more abundant. These results can be explained if origins fire independently of each other but under the control of long-range chromatin structure, or if replication forks progressing from early origins stimulate initiation in nearby unreplicated DNA. These findings shed a new light on the replication timing program of mammalian genomes and provide a general model for their replication kinetics.

Multiscale analysis of genome-wide replication timing profiles using a wavelet-based signal-processing algorithm.

In this protocol, we describe the use of the LastWave open-source signal-processing command language (http://perso.ens-lyon.fr/benjamin.audit/LastWave/) for analyzing cellular DNA replication timing profiles. LastWave makes use of a multiscale, wavelet-based signal-processing algorithm that is based on a rigorous theoretical analysis linking timing profiles to fundamental features of the cell's DNA replication program, such as the average replication fork polarity and the difference between replication origin density and termination site density. We describe the flow of signal-processing operations to obtain interactive visual analyses of DNA replication timing profiles. We focus on procedures for exploring the space-scale map of apparent replication speeds to detect peaks in the replication timing profiles that represent preferential replication initiation zones, and for delimiting U-shaped domains in the replication timing profile. In comparison with the generally adopted approach that involves genome segmentation into regions of constant timing separated by timing transition regions, the present protocol enables the recognition of more complex patterns of the spatio-temporal replication program and has a broader range of applications. Completing the full procedure should not take more than 1 h, although learning the basics of the program can take a few hours and achieving full proficiency in the use of the software may take days.

From simple bacterial and archaeal replicons to replication N/U-domains.

The Replicon Theory proposed 50 years ago has proven to apply for replicons of the three domains of life. Here, we review our knowledge of genome organization into single and multiple replicons in bacteria, archaea and eukarya. Bacterial and archaeal replicator/initiator systems are quite specific and efficient, whereas eukaryotic replicons show degenerate specificity and efficiency, allowing for complex regulation of origin firing time. We expand on recent evidence that ~50% of the human genome is organized as ~1,500 megabase-sized replication domains with a characteristic parabolic (U-shaped) replication timing profile and linear (N-shaped) gradient of replication fork polarity. These N/U-domains correspond to self-interacting segments of the chromatin fiber bordered by open chromatin zones and replicate by cascades of origin firing initiating at their borders and propagating to their center, possibly by fork-stimulated initiation. The conserved occurrence of this replication pattern in the germline of mammals has resulted over evolutionary times in the formation of megabase-sized domains with an N-shaped nucleotide compositional skew profile due to replication-associated mutational asymmetries. Overall, these results reveal an evolutionarily conserved but developmentally plastic organization of replication that is driving mammalian genome evolution.