Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box.

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Grey Matter Atrophy and its Relationship with White Matter Lesions in Patients with Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Antibody-associated Disease, Aquaporin-4 Antibody-Positive Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder, and Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate: (1) the distribution of gray matter (GM) atrophy in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), aquaporin-4 antibody-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4+NMOSD), and relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS); and (2) the relationship between GM volumes and white matter lesions in various brain regions within each disease. METHODS: A retrospective, multicenter analysis of magnetic resonance imaging data included patients with MOGAD/AQP4+NMOSD/RRMS in non-acute disease stage. Voxel-wise analyses and general linear models were used to evaluate the relevance of regional GM atrophy. For significant results (p < 0.05), volumes of atrophic areas are reported. RESULTS: We studied 135 MOGAD patients, 135 AQP4+NMOSD, 175 RRMS, and 144 healthy controls (HC). Compared with HC, MOGAD showed lower GM volumes in the temporal lobes, deep GM, insula, and cingulate cortex (75.79 cm3); AQP4+NMOSD in the occipital cortex (32.83 cm3); and RRMS diffusely in the GM (260.61 cm3). MOGAD showed more pronounced temporal cortex atrophy than RRMS (6.71 cm3), whereas AQP4+NMOSD displayed greater occipital cortex atrophy than RRMS (19.82 cm3). RRMS demonstrated more pronounced deep GM atrophy in comparison with MOGAD (27.90 cm3) and AQP4+NMOSD (47.04 cm3). In MOGAD, higher periventricular and cortical/juxtacortical lesions were linked to reduced temporal cortex, deep GM, and insula volumes. In RRMS, the diffuse GM atrophy was associated with lesions in all locations. AQP4+NMOSD showed no lesion/GM volume correlation. INTERPRETATION: GM atrophy is more widespread in RRMS compared with the other two conditions. MOGAD primarily affects the temporal cortex, whereas AQP4+NMOSD mainly involves the occipital cortex. In MOGAD and RRMS, lesion-related tract degeneration is associated with atrophy, but this link is absent in AQP4+NMOSD. ANN NEUROL 2024;96:276-288.

Towards cascading genetic risk in Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease typically progresses in stages, which have been defined by the presence of disease-specific biomarkers: amyloid (A), tau (T) and neurodegeneration (N). This progression of biomarkers has been condensed into the ATN framework, in which each of the biomarkers can be either positive (+) or negative (-). Over the past decades, genome-wide association studies have implicated ∼90 different loci involved with the development of late-onset Alzheimer's disease. Here, we investigate whether genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease contributes equally to the progression in different disease stages or whether it exhibits a stage-dependent effect. Amyloid (A) and tau (T) status was defined using a combination of available PET and CSF biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. In 312 participants with biomarker-confirmed A-T- status, we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the contribution of APOE and polygenic risk scores (beyond APOE) to convert to A+T- status (65 conversions). Furthermore, we repeated the analysis in 290 participants with A+T- status and investigated the genetic contribution to conversion to A+T+ (45 conversions). Both survival analyses were adjusted for age, sex and years of education. For progression from A-T- to A+T-, APOE-e4 burden showed a significant effect [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.70-4.89; P < 0.001], whereas polygenic risk did not (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84-1.42; P = 0.53). Conversely, for the transition from A+T- to A+T+, the contribution of APOE-e4 burden was reduced (HR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.05-2.51; P = 0.031), whereas the polygenic risk showed an increased contribution (HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.27-2.36; P < 0.001). The marginal APOE effect was driven by e4 homozygotes (HR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.05-6.35; P = 0.039) as opposed to e4 heterozygotes (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 0.87-3.49; P = 0.12). The genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease unfolds in a disease stage-dependent fashion. A better understanding of the interplay between disease stage and genetic risk can lead to a more mechanistic understanding of the transition between ATN stages and a better understanding of the molecular processes leading to Alzheimer's disease, in addition to opening therapeutic windows for targeted interventions.

Prognostic value of single-subject grey matter networks in early multiple sclerosis.

The identification of prognostic markers in early multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging and requires reliable measures that robustly predict future disease trajectories. Ideally, such measures should make inferences at the individual level to inform clinical decisions. This study investigated the prognostic value of longitudinal structural networks to predict 5-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We hypothesized that network measures, derived from MRI, outperform conventional MRI measurements at identifying patients at risk of developing disability progression. This longitudinal, multicentre study within the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) network included 406 patients with RRMS (mean age = 35.7 ± 9.1 years) followed up for 5 years (mean follow-up = 5.0 ± 0.6 years). EDSS was determined to track disability accumulation. A group of 153 healthy subjects (mean age = 35.0 ± 10.1 years) with longitudinal MRI served as controls. All subjects underwent MRI at baseline and again 1 year after baseline. Grey matter atrophy over 1 year and white matter lesion load were determined. A single-subject brain network was reconstructed from T1-weighted scans based on grey matter atrophy measures derived from a statistical parameter mapping-based segmentation pipeline. Key topological measures, including network degree, global efficiency and transitivity, were calculated at single-subject level to quantify network properties related to EDSS progression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load, and the network measures and comparisons between ROC curves were conducted. The applied network analyses differentiated patients with RRMS who experience EDSS progression over 5 years through lower values for network degree [H(2) = 30.0, P < 0.001] and global efficiency [H(2) = 31.3, P < 0.001] from healthy controls but also from patients without progression. For transitivity, the comparisons showed no difference between the groups [H(2) = 1.5, P = 0.474]. Most notably, changes in network degree and global efficiency were detected independent of disease activity in the first year. The described network reorganization in patients experiencing EDSS progression was evident in the absence of grey matter atrophy. Network degree and global efficiency measurements demonstrated superiority of network measures in the ROC analyses over grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load in predicting EDSS worsening (all P-values < 0.05). Our findings provide evidence that grey matter network reorganization over 1 year discloses relevant information about subsequent clinical worsening in RRMS. Early grey matter restructuring towards lower network efficiency predicts disability accumulation and outperforms conventional MRI predictors.

The ageing central nervous system in multiple sclerosis: the imaging perspective.

The interaction between ageing and multiple sclerosis is complex and carries significant implications for patient care. Managing multiple sclerosis effectively requires an understanding of how ageing and multiple sclerosis impact brain structure and function. Ageing inherently induces brain changes, including reduced plasticity, diminished grey matter volume, and ischaemic lesion accumulation. When combined with multiple sclerosis pathology, these age-related alterations may worsen clinical disability. Ageing may also influence the response of multiple sclerosis patients to therapies and/or their side-effects, highlighting the importance of adjusted treatment considerations. Magnetic resonance MRI is highly sensitive to age- and multiple sclerosis-related processes. Accordingly, MRI can provide insights into the relationship between ageing and multiple sclerosis, enabling a better understanding of their pathophysiological interplay and informing treatment selection. This review summarizes current knowledge on the immuno-pathological and MRI aspects of ageing in the central nervous system in the context of multiple sclerosis. Starting from immunosenescence, ageing-related pathological mechanisms, and specific features like enlarged Virchow-Robin spaces, this review then explores clinical aspects, including late-onset multiple sclerosis, the influence of age on diagnostic criteria, and comorbidity effects on imaging features. The role of MRI in understanding neurodegeneration, iron dynamics, and myelin changes influenced by ageing and how MRI can contribute to defining treatment effects in ageing multiple sclerosis patients, are also discussed.

Vitamin D did not reduce multiple sclerosis disease activity after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and low sunlight exposure are known risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis. Add-on vitamin D supplementation trials in established multiple sclerosis have been inconclusive. The effects of vitamin D supplementation to prevent multiple sclerosis is unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that oral vitamin D3 supplementation in high-risk clinically isolated syndrome (abnormal MRI, at least three T2 brain and/or spinal cord lesions), delays time to conversion to definite multiple sclerosis, that the therapeutic effect is dose-dependent, and that all doses are safe and well tolerated. We conducted a double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand. Eligible participants were randomized 1:1:1:1 to placebo, 1000, 5000 or 10 000 international units (IU) of oral vitamin D3 daily within each study centre (n = 23) and followed for up to 48 weeks. Between 2013 and 2021, we enrolled 204 participants. Brain MRI scans were performed at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks. The main study outcome was conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis based on the 2010 McDonald criteria defined as either a clinical relapse or new brain MRI T2 lesion development. We included 199 cases in the intention-to-treat analysis based on assigned dose. Of these, 116 converted to multiple sclerosis by 48 weeks (58%). Compared to placebo, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for conversion were 1000 IU 0.87 (0.50, 1.50); 5000 IU 1.37 (0.82, 2.29); and 10 000 IU 1.28 (0.76, 2.14). In an adjusted model including age, sex, latitude, study centre and baseline symptom number, clinically isolated syndrome onset site, presence of infratentorial lesions and use of steroids, the hazard ratios (versus placebo) were 1000 IU 0.80 (0.45, 1.44); 5000 IU 1.36 (0.78, 2.38); and 10 000 IU 1.07 (0.62, 1.85). Vitamin D3 supplementation was safe and well tolerated. We did not demonstrate reduction in multiple sclerosis disease activity by vitamin D3 supplementation after a high-risk clinically isolated syndrome.

Enhancing cognitive performance prediction by white matter hyperintensity connectivity assessment.

White matter hyperintensities of presumed vascular origin (WMH) are associated with cognitive impairment and are a key imaging marker in evaluating brain health. However, WMH volume alone does not fully account for the extent of cognitive deficits and the mechanisms linking WMH to these deficits remain unclear. Lesion network mapping (LNM) enables to infer if brain networks are connected to lesions and could be a promising technique for enhancing our understanding of the role of WMH in cognitive disorders. Our study employed LNM to test the following hypotheses: (1) LNM-informed markers surpass WMH volumes in predicting cognitive performance, and (2) WMH contributing to cognitive impairment map to specific brain networks. We analyzed cross-sectional data of 3,485 patients from 10 memory clinic cohorts within the Meta VCI Map Consortium, using harmonized test results in 4 cognitive domains and WMH segmentations. WMH segmentations were registered to a standard space and mapped onto existing normative structural and functional brain connectome data. We employed LNM to quantify WMH connectivity to 480 atlas-based gray and white matter regions of interest (ROI), resulting in ROI-level structural and functional LNM scores. We compared the capacity of total and regional WMH volumes and LNM scores in predicting cognitive function using ridge regression models in a nested cross-validation. LNM scores predicted performance in three cognitive domains (attention/executive function, information processing speed, and verbal memory) significantly better than WMH volumes. LNM scores did not improve prediction for language functions. ROI-level analysis revealed that higher LNM scores, representing greater connectivity to WMH, in gray and white matter regions of the dorsal and ventral attention networks were associated with lower cognitive performance. Measures of WMH-related brain network connectivity significantly improve the prediction of current cognitive performance in memory clinic patients compared to WMH volume as a traditional imaging marker of cerebrovascular disease. This highlights the crucial role of network integrity, particularly in attention-related brain regions, improving our understanding of vascular contributions to cognitive impairment. Moving forward, refining WMH information with connectivity data could contribute to patient-tailored therapeutic interventions and facilitate the identification of subgroups at risk of cognitive disorders.

Deep learning enables accurate brain tissue microstructure analysis based on clinically feasible diffusion magnetic resonance imaging.

Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) allows non-invasive assessment of brain tissue microstructure. Current model-based tissue microstructure reconstruction techniques require a large number of diffusion gradients, which is not clinically feasible due to imaging time constraints, and this has limited the use of tissue microstructure information in clinical settings. Recently, approaches based on deep learning (DL) have achieved promising tissue microstructure reconstruction results using clinically feasible dMRI. However, it remains unclear whether the subtle tissue changes associated with disease or age are properly preserved with DL approaches and whether DL reconstruction results can benefit clinical applications. Here, we provide the first evidence that DL approaches to tissue microstructure reconstruction yield reliable brain tissue microstructure analysis based on clinically feasible dMRI scans. Specifically, we reconstructed tissue microstructure from four different brain dMRI datasets with only 12 diffusion gradients, a clinically feasible protocol, and the neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) and spherical mean technique (SMT) models were considered. With these results we show that disease-related and age-dependent alterations of brain tissue were accurately identified. These findings demonstrate that DL tissue microstructure reconstruction can accurately quantify microstructural alterations in the brain based on clinically feasible dMRI.

Assessing brain involvement in Fabry disease with deep learning and the brain-age paradigm.

While neurological manifestations are core features of Fabry disease (FD), quantitative neuroimaging biomarkers allowing to measure brain involvement are lacking. We used deep learning and the brain-age paradigm to assess whether FD patients' brains appear older than normal and to validate brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) as a possible disease severity biomarker. MRI scans of FD patients and healthy controls (HCs) from a single Institution were, retrospectively, studied. The Fabry stabilization index (FASTEX) was recorded as a measure of disease severity. Using minimally preprocessed 3D T1-weighted brain scans of healthy subjects from eight publicly available sources (N = 2160; mean age = 33 years [range 4-86]), we trained a model predicting chronological age based on a DenseNet architecture and used it to generate brain-age predictions in the internal cohort. Within a linear modeling framework, brain-PAD was tested for age/sex-adjusted associations with diagnostic group (FD vs. HC), FASTEX score, and both global and voxel-level neuroimaging measures. We studied 52 FD patients (40.6 ± 12.6 years; 28F) and 58 HC (38.4 ± 13.4 years; 28F). The brain-age model achieved accurate out-of-sample performance (mean absolute error = 4.01 years, R2 = .90). FD patients had significantly higher brain-PAD than HC (estimated marginal means: 3.1 vs. -0.1, p = .01). Brain-PAD was associated with FASTEX score (B = 0.10, p = .02), brain parenchymal fraction (B = -153.50, p = .001), white matter hyperintensities load (B = 0.85, p = .01), and tissue volume reduction throughout the brain. We demonstrated that FD patients' brains appear older than normal. Brain-PAD correlates with FD-related multi-organ damage and is influenced by both global brain volume and white matter hyperintensities, offering a comprehensive biomarker of (neurological) disease severity.

Brain Tumor Imaging without Gadolinium-based Contrast Agents: Feasible or Fantasy?

Gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs) form the cornerstone of current primary brain tumor MRI protocols at all stages of the patient journey. Though an imperfect measure of tumor grade, GBCAs are repeatedly used for diagnosis and monitoring. In practice, however, radiologists will encounter situations where GBCA injection is not needed or of doubtful benefit. Reducing GBCA administration could improve the patient burden of (repeated) imaging (especially in vulnerable patient groups, such as children), minimize risks of putative side effects, and benefit costs, logistics, and the environmental footprint. On the basis of the current literature, imaging strategies to reduce GBCA exposure for pediatric and adult patients with primary brain tumors will be reviewed. Early postoperative MRI and fixed-interval imaging of gliomas are examples of GBCA exposure with uncertain survival benefits. Half-dose GBCAs for gliomas and T2-weighted imaging alone for meningiomas are among options to reduce GBCA use. While most imaging guidelines recommend using GBCAs at all stages of diagnosis and treatment, non-contrast-enhanced sequences, such as the arterial spin labeling, have shown a great potential. Artificial intelligence methods to generate synthetic postcontrast images from decreased-dose or non-GBCA scans have shown promise to replace GBCA-dependent approaches. This review is focused on pediatric and adult gliomas and meningiomas. Special attention is paid to the quality and real-life applicability of the reviewed literature.

The evolving contribution of MRI measures towards the prediction of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis (MS), both lesion accrual and brain atrophy predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear whether these prognostic features are equally relevant throughout the course of MS. Among 103 participants recruited following a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and followed up over 30 years, we explored (1) whether white matter lesions were prognostically more relevant earlier and brain atrophy later in the disease course towards development of secondary progressive (SP) disease; (2) if so, when the balance in prognostic contribution shifts and (3) whether optimised prognostic models predicting SP disease should include different features dependent on disease duration. METHODS: Binary logistic regression models were built using age, gender, brain lesion counts and locations, and linear atrophy measures (third ventricular width and medullary width) at each time point up to 20 years, using either single time point data alone or adjusted for baseline measures. RESULTS: By 30 years, 27 participants remained CIS while 60 had MS (26 SPMS and 16 MS-related death). Lesions counts were prognostically significant from baseline and at all later time points while linear atrophy measure models reached significance from 5 years. When adjusted for baseline, in combined MRI models including lesion count and linear atrophy measures, only lesion counts were significant predictors. In combined models including relapse measures, Expanded Disability Status Scale scores and MRI measures, only infratentorial lesions were significant predictors throughout. CONCLUSIONS: While SPMS progression is associated with brain atrophy, in predictive models only infratentorial lesions were consistently prognostically significant.

Rates of cortical thinning in Alzheimer's disease signature regions associate with vascular burden but not with ß-amyloid status in cognitively normal adults at age 70.

BACKGROUND: Consistent patterns of reduced cortical thickness have been identified in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the pathological factors that influence rates of cortical thinning within these AD signature regions remain unclear. METHODS: Participants were from the Insight 46 substudy of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort), a prospective longitudinal cohort study. Linear regression was used to examine associations of baseline cerebral ß-amyloid (Aß) deposition, measured using florbetapir positron emission tomography, and baseline white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) on MRI, a marker of cerebral small vessel disease, with subsequent longitudinal changes in AD signature cortical thickness quantified from baseline and repeat MRI (mean [SD] interval 2.4 [0.2] years). RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 337 cognitively normal older white adults (mean [SD] age at baseline 70.5 [0.6] years; 48.1% female), higher global WMHV at baseline related to faster subsequent rates of cortical thinning in both AD signature regions (~0.15%/year faster per 10 mL additional WMHV), whereas baseline Aß status did not. Among Aß positive participants (n=56), there was some evidence that greater global Aß standardised uptake value ratio at baseline related to faster cortical thinning in the AD signature Mayo region, but this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Cortical thinning within AD signature regions may develop via cerebrovascular pathways. Perhaps reflecting the age of the cohort and relatively low prevalence of Aß-positivity, robust Aß-related differences were not detected. Longitudinal follow-up incorporating additional biomarkers will allow assessment of how these relationships evolve closer to expected dementia onset.

Prospective trial of natalizumab personalised extended interval dosing by therapeutic drug monitoring in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (NEXT-MS).

BACKGROUND: Extended interval dosing (EID) of natalizumab is a promising strategy to optimise treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Personalised EID by therapeutic drug monitoring can enable further extension of treatment intervals. METHODS: The NEXT-MS trial is an investigator-initiated prospective phase IV non-randomised study. Adults with a diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS who received ≥6 natalizumab infusions were included in three groups: personalised EID with a target drug trough concentration of 10 µg/mL (EID10), an exploratory group of personalised EID with a target of 5 µg/mL (EID5) and standard interval dosing (SID) of 4 weeks. The primary outcome is radiological disease activity (new/newly enlarged T2 lesions) comparing the EID10 group to a historical cohort of SID (HSID). RESULTS: Results of the first phase of the NEXT-MS trial are reported here (n=376) as the study will continue with an amended protocol. In the EID10 group (n=251), incidence rate of radiological activity was 10.0 per 1000 person-years, which was non-inferior to the HSID cohort (24.7 per 1000 person-years (n=87), incidence rate difference 14.7, 90% CI -4.5 to 34.0). Incidence rate of radiological activity was 10.0 per 1000 person-years in the EID5 group (n=65), and 47.0 per 1000 person-years in the SID group (n=60). Serum neurofilament light levels did not increase over time within the EID groups. There were no cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. CONCLUSIONS: MS disease activity is adequately controlled with personalised natalizumab EID. Interval extension to a drug trough concentration of 5 µg/mL is likely a safe target to extend natalizumab treatment intervals >6 weeks. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04225312.

Impact of simulated reduced injected dose on the assessment of amyloid PET scans.

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of reduced injected doses on the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the amyloid PET tracers [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben. METHODS: Cognitively impaired and unimpaired individuals (N = 250, 36% Aß-positive) were included and injected with [18F]flutemetamol (N = 175) or [18F]florbetaben (N = 75). PET scans were acquired in list-mode (90-110 min post-injection) and reduced-dose images were simulated to generate images of 75, 50, 25, 12.5 and 5% of the original injected dose. Images were reconstructed using vendor-provided reconstruction tools and visually assessed for Aß-pathology. SUVRs were calculated for a global cortical and three smaller regions using a cerebellar cortex reference tissue, and Centiloid was computed. Absolute and percentage differences in SUVR and CL were calculated between dose levels, and the ability to discriminate between Aß- and Aß + scans was evaluated using ROC analyses. Finally, intra-reader agreement between the reduced dose and 100% images was evaluated. RESULTS: At 5% injected dose, change in SUVR was 3.72% and 3.12%, with absolute change in Centiloid 3.35CL and 4.62CL, for [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben, respectively. At 12.5% injected dose, percentage change in SUVR and absolute change in Centiloid were < 1.5%. AUCs for discriminating Aß- from Aß + scans were high (AUC ≥ 0.94) across dose levels, and visual assessment showed intra-reader agreement of > 80% for both tracers. CONCLUSION: This proof-of-concept study showed that for both [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben, adequate quantitative and qualitative assessments can be obtained at 12.5% of the original injected dose. However, decisions to reduce the injected dose should be made considering the specific clinical or research circumstances.

Subtypes and location of (juxta)cortical lesions relate to cognitive dysfunction in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cortical lesion subtypes' occurrence and distribution across networks may shed light on cognitive impairment (CI) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: In 332 people with MS, lesions were classified as intracortical, leukocortical or juxtacortical based on artificially generated double inversion-recovery images. RESULTS: CI-related leukocortical lesion count increases were greatest within sensorimotor and cognitive networks (p < 0.001). Only intracortical lesion count could distinguish between cognitive groups (p = 0.024). Effect sizes were two- to four-fold larger than differences between MS phenotypes. CONCLUSION: In CI-MS, leukocortical lesions predominate, whereas intracortical lesions distinguish cognitive groups. Lesions' grey matter (GM) involvement might be decisive for cognition in MS, surpassing overall disease burden.

Disease progression in the first 5 years of treatment in multiple sclerosis: Predictive value of early brain and lesion volume changes.

BACKGROUND: Whether the degree of inflammation (and its resolution) and neurodegeneration after treatment initiation predicts disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain and lesion volume (LV) changes in years 1 and 2 of treatment for disease progression. METHODS: Patients receiving early interferon beta-1a treatment in REFLEX/REFLEXION (N = 262) were included. Predictive regression models included new/enlarging LV (positive activity), disappearing/shrinking LV (negative activity), and global/central atrophy during years 1 and 2. RESULTS: Faster global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy and positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 related to an increased probability and faster conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2 were predictive of confirmed disability progression (9-Hole Peg Test). Positive lesion activity in year 2 was predictive of faster global atrophy, while positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 was predictive of faster central atrophy. CONCLUSIONS: A higher degree of global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy in year 1 was predictive of CDMS. Positive lesion activity in any year was related to CDMS and neurodegeneration. Disability was related to negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2.

Improving explanation of motor disability with diffusion-based graph metrics at onset of the first demyelinating event.

BACKGROUND: Conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not account for all disability in multiple sclerosis. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the ability of graph metrics from diffusion-based structural connectomes to explain motor function beyond conventional MRI in early demyelinating clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). METHODS: A total of 73 people with CIS underwent conventional MRI, diffusion-weighted imaging and clinical assessment within 3 months from onset. A total of 28 healthy controls underwent MRI. Structural connectomes were produced. Differences between patients and controls were explored; clinical associations were assessed in patients. Linear regression models were compared to establish relevance of graph metrics over conventional MRI. RESULTS: Local efficiency (p = 0.045), clustering (p = 0.034) and transitivity (p = 0.036) were reduced in patients. Higher assortativity was associated with higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (ß = 74.9, p = 0.026) scores. Faster timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) was associated with higher assortativity (ß = 5.39, p = 0.026), local efficiency (ß = 27.1, p = 0.041) and clustering (ß = 36.1, p = 0.032) and lower small-worldness (ß = -3.27, p = 0.015). Adding graph metrics to conventional MRI improved EDSS (p = 0.045, ΔR2 = 4) and T25FW (p < 0.001, ΔR2 = 13.6) prediction. CONCLUSION: Graph metrics are relevant early in demyelination. They show differences between patients and controls and have relationships with clinical outcomes. Segregation (local efficiency, clustering, transitivity) was particularly relevant. Combining graph metrics with conventional MRI better explained disability.

Exploring the effects of extended interval dosing of natalizumab and drug concentrations on brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Extended interval dosing (EID) of natalizumab treatment is increasingly used in multiple sclerosis. Besides the clear anti-inflammatory effect, natalizumab is considered to have neuroprotective properties as well. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to study the longitudinal effects of EID compared to standard interval dosing (SID) and natalizumab drug concentrations on brain atrophy. METHODS: Patients receiving EID or SID of natalizumab with a minimum radiological follow-up of 2 years were included. Changes in brain atrophy measures over time were derived from clinical routine 3D-Fluid Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR)-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans using SynthSeg. RESULTS: We found no differences between EID (n = 32) and SID (n = 50) for whole brain (-0.21% vs -0.16%, p = 0.42), ventricular (1.84% vs 1.13%, p = 0.24), and thalamic (-0.32% vs -0.32%, p = 0.97) annualized volume change over a median follow-up of 3.2 years. No associations between natalizumab drug concentration and brain atrophy rate were found. CONCLUSION: We found no clear evidence that EID compared to SID or lower natalizumab drug concentrations have a negative impact on the development of brain atrophy over time.

Aging is associated with reduced inflammatory disease activity independent of disease duration in relapsing multiple sclerosis trial populations.

BACKGROUND: Higher age is associated with less inflammatory disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). It is unknown whether age itself or disease duration underlies this association. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the effects of age, disease duration, and inflammatory disease activity in people with RRMS. METHODS: Individual patient-level data from five large phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was utilized to investigate the association of both age and disease duration with annualized relapse rate (ARR), contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs), and new T2 lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: The data set included 5626 participants. Higher age was associated with lower ARRs, lower CEL number on MRI at baseline and follow-up, and lower new T2 lesion numbers at follow-up. This effect was present in all disease duration groups. For example, we found a lower number of new T2 lesions on MRI during follow-up in higher age groups compared to lower age groups, independent of disease duration. CONCLUSION: Aging in RRMS is associated with a lower risk of inflammatory disease activity, across different disease durations. Age should be taken into account when designing clinical trials and future research should investigate how age should be integrated into personalized predictions of treatment response and risk profiling.

Optic chiasm involvement in multiple sclerosis, aquaporin-4 antibody-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-associated disease.

BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis (ON) is a common feature of inflammatory demyelinating diseases (IDDs) such as multiple sclerosis (MS), aquaporin 4-antibody neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4 + NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD). However, the involvement of the optic chiasm (OC) in IDD has not been fully investigated. AIMS: To examine OC differences in non-acute IDD patients with (ON+) and without ON (ON-) using magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR), to compare differences between MS, AQP4 + NMOSD and MOGAD and understand their associations with other neuro-ophthalmological markers. METHODS: Twenty-eight relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), 24 AQP4 + NMOSD, 28 MOGAD patients and 32 healthy controls (HCs) underwent clinical evaluation, MRI and optical coherence tomography (OCT) scan. Multivariable linear regression models were applied. RESULTS: ON + IDD patients showed lower OC MTR than HCs (28.87 ± 4.58 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.004). When compared with HCs, lower OC MTR was found in ON + AQP4 + NMOSD (28.55 ± 4.18 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.020) and MOGAD (28.73 ± 4.99 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.007) and in ON- AQP4 + NMOSD (28.37 ± 7.27 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.035). ON+ RRMS had lower MTR than ON- RRMS (28.87 ± 4.58 vs 30.99 ± 4.76; p = 0.038). Lower OC MTR was associated with higher number of ON (regression coefficient (RC) = -1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.819 to -0.490, p = 0.001), worse visual acuity (RC = -0.026, 95% CI = -0.041 to -0.011, p = 0.001) and lower peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (pRNFL) thickness (RC = 1.129, 95% CI = 0.199 to 2.059, p = 0.018) when considering the whole IDD group. CONCLUSION: OC microstructural damage indicates prior ON in IDD and is linked to reduced vision and thinner pRNFL.