Associations Between Sexual Behavior Stigma and HIV Risk Behaviors, Testing, Treatment, and Infection Among Men Who have Sex with Men in Ukraine.

Stigma toward same-sex behaviors may be a structural driver of HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Eastern Europe and has been linked to adverse HIV-outcomes elsewhere. We explored associations between sexual behavior stigma with HIV risk behaviors, testing, treatment, and infection. From November 2017 to February 2018, MSM across 27 Ukrainian cities were recruited to cross-sectional surveys using respondent driven sampling. Eligible participants were cisgender males aged ≥ 14 years residing in participating cities that reported ≥ 1 sexual contact with another man in the prior 6 months. Participants self-reported experience of stigma (ever) and various HIV-outcomes and were tested for HIV antibodies. Regression models were used to explore associations between three sexual behavior stigma variables with demographic and HIV-related variables. Of 5812 recruited cisgender MSM, 5544 (95.4%) were included. 1663 (30.0%) MSM reported having experienced stigma due to being MSM from family and friends, 698 (12.6%) reported anticipated healthcare stigma, and 1805 (32.6%) reported general public/social stigma due to being MSM (enacted). All forms of stigma were associated with heightened HIV risk behaviors; those experiencing stigma (vs not) had more anal sex partners in the prior month and were less likely to have used condoms during their last anal intercourse. Stigma was not associated with HIV infection, testing, or treatment variables. A sizeable proportion of Ukrainian MSM reported ever experiencing stigma due to being MSM. MSM that had experienced stigma had higher odds of HIV sexual risk behaviors. Further study using longitudinal designs is required to determine causality.

Faith Community Engagement to Mitigate COVID-19 Transmission Associated with Mass Gathering, Uman, Ukraine, September 2021.

Annually, ≈30,000 Hasidic and Orthodox Jews travel to Uman, Ukraine, during the Jewish New Year to pray at the burial place of the founder of the Breslov Hasidic movement. Many pilgrims come from the northeastern United States. The global health implications of this event were seen in 2019 when measles outbreaks in the United States and Israel were linked to the pilgrimage. The 2020 pilgrimage was cancelled as part of the COVID-19 travel restrictions imposed by the government of Ukraine. To prepare for the 2021 event, the National Public Health Institute, the Public Health Center of Ukraine, organized mitigation measures for pilgrims arriving in Uman, and the CDC COVID-19 International Task Force assisted with mitigation measures for pilgrims coming from the United States. We describe efforts to support COVID-19 mitigation measures before, during, and after this mass gathering and lessons learned for future mass gatherings during pandemics.

Cholera surveillance during the Haiti epidemic--the first 2 years.

BACKGROUND: In October 2010, nearly 10 months after a devastating earthquake, Haiti was stricken by epidemic cholera. Within days after detection, the Ministry of Public Health and Population established a National Cholera Surveillance System (NCSS). METHODS: The NCSS used a modified World Health Organization case definition for cholera that included acute watery diarrhea, with or without vomiting, in persons of all ages residing in an area in which at least one case of Vibrio cholerae O1 infection had been confirmed by culture. RESULTS: Within 29 days after the first report, cases of V. cholerae O1 (serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor) were confirmed in all 10 administrative departments (similar to states or provinces) in Haiti. Through October 20, 2012, the public health ministry reported 604,634 cases of infection, 329,697 hospitalizations, and 7436 deaths from cholera and isolated V. cholerae O1 from 1675 of 2703 stool specimens tested (62.0%). The cumulative attack rate was 5.1% at the end of the first year and 6.1% at the end of the second year. The cumulative case fatality rate consistently trended downward, reaching 1.2% at the close of year 2, with departmental cumulative rates ranging from 0.6% to 4.6% (median, 1.4%). Within 3 months after the start of the epidemic, the rolling 14-day case fatality rate was 1.0% and remained at or below this level with few, brief exceptions. Overall, the cholera epidemic in Haiti accounted for 57% of all cholera cases and 53% of all cholera deaths reported to the World Health Organization in 2010 and 58% of all cholera cases and 37% of all cholera deaths in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: A review of NCSS data shows that during the first 2 years of the cholera epidemic in Haiti, the cumulative attack rate was 6.1%, with cases reported in all 10 departments. Within 3 months after the first case was reported, there was a downward trend in mortality, with a 14-day case fatality rate of 1.0% or less in most areas.

Clinical outcomes of nalidixic acid, ceftriaxone, and multidrug-resistant nontyphoidal salmonella infections compared with pansusceptible infections in FoodNet sites, 2006-2008.

BACKGROUND: Nontyphoidal Salmonella causes an estimated 1.2 million infections, 23,000 hospitalizations, and 450 deaths annually in the United States. Most illnesses are self-limited; however, treatment with antimicrobial agents can be life-saving for invasive infections. METHODS: The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System collaborated on a prospective cohort study of patients with nontyphoidal Salmonella bloodstream and gastrointestinal infections to determine differences in the clinical outcomes of resistant compared with pansusceptible infections. Interviews were conducted within 85 days of specimen collection date. RESULTS: Of 875 nontyphoidal Salmonella isolates, 705 (81%) were pansusceptible, 165 (19%) were resistant to at least 1 agent, and 5 (0.6%) had only intermediate resistance. The most common pattern, found in 51 (31%) of resistant isolates, was resistance to at least ampicillin, chloramphenicol, streptomycin, sulfisoxazole, and tetracycline (ACSSuT); 88% of isolates with this pattern were serotype Typhimurium or Newport. Fourteen (52%) of the 27 ceftriaxone-resistant isolates were also ACSSuT resistant. Adjusted for age and serotype, bloodstream infection was significantly more common among patients infected with strains resistant to only two, only three, or only five antimicrobial classes, to ACSSuT with or without other agents, to ACSSuT only, or to nalidixic acid with or without other agents than among patients with pansusceptible isolates. Adjusted for age, serotype, and bloodstream infection, hospitalization was significantly more common among patients infected with strains resistant to only three agents or to ceftriaxone (all ceftriaxone-resistant isolates were resistant to other agents) than among patients with pansusceptible isolates. CONCLUSION: This study extends evidence that patients with antimicrobial-resistant nontyphoidal Salmonella infections have more severe outcomes. Prevention efforts are needed to reduce unnecessary antimicrobial use in patient care settings and in food animals to help prevent the emergence of resistance and infections with resistant nontyphoidal Salmonella.

National outbreak of type a foodborne botulism associated with a widely distributed commercially canned hot dog chili sauce.

BACKGROUND: On 7 and 11 July 2007, health officials in Texas and Indiana, respectively, reported 4 possible cases of type A foodborne botulism to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Foodborne botulism is a rare and sometimes fatal illness caused by consuming foods containing botulinum neurotoxin. METHODS: Investigators reviewed patients' medical charts and food histories. Clinical specimens and food samples were tested for botulinum toxin and neurotoxin-producing Clostridium species. Investigators conducted inspections of the cannery that produced the implicated product. RESULTS: Eight confirmed outbreak associated cases were identified from Indiana (n = 2), Texas (n = 3), and Ohio (n = 3). Botulinum toxin type A was identified in leftover chili sauce consumed by the Indiana patients and 1 of the Ohio patients. Cannery inspectors found violations of federal canned-food regulations that could have led to survival of Clostridium botulinum spores during sterilization. The company recalled 39 million cans of chili. Following the outbreak, the US Food and Drug Administration inspected other canneries with similar canning systems and issued warnings to the industry about the danger of C. botulinum and the importance of compliance with canned food manufacturing regulations. CONCLUSIONS: Commercially produced hot dog chili sauce caused these cases of type A botulism. This is the first US foodborne botulism outbreak involving a commercial cannery in >30 years. Sharing of epidemiologic and laboratory findings allowed for the rapid identification of implicated food items and swift removal of potentially deadly products from the market by US food regulatory authorities.

Dynamics of shigellosis epidemics: estimating individual-level transmission and reporting rates from national epidemiologic data sets.

Shigellosis, a diarrheal disease, is endemic worldwide and is responsible for approximately 15,000 laboratory-confirmed cases in the United States every year. However, patients with shigellosis often do not seek medical care. To estimate the burden of shigellosis, we extended time-series susceptible-infected-recovered models to infer epidemiologic parameters from underreported case data. We applied the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered-based inference schemes to analyze the largest surveillance data set of Shigella sonnei in the United States from 1967 to 2007 with county-level resolution. The dynamics of shigellosis transmission show strong annual and multiyear cycles, as well as seasonality. By using the schemes, we inferred individual-level parameters of shigellosis infection, including seasonal transmissibilities and basic reproductive number (R0). In addition, this study provides quantitative estimates of the reporting rate, suggesting that the shigellosis burden in the United States may be more than 10 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases. Although the estimated reporting rate is generally under 20%, and R0 is generally under 1.5, there is a strong negative correlation between estimates of the reporting rate and R0. Such negative correlations are likely to pose identifiability problems in underreported diseases. We discuss complementary approaches that might further disentangle the true reporting rate and R0.

Increase in resistance to ceftriaxone and nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin and decrease in multidrug resistance among Salmonella strains, United States, 1996-2009.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella is a major bacterial pathogen transmitted commonly through food. Increasing resistance to antimicrobial agents (e.g., ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin) used to treat serious Salmonella infections threatens the utility of these agents. Infection with antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella has been associated with increased risk of severe infection, hospitalization, and death. We describe changes in antimicrobial resistance among nontyphoidal Salmonella in the United States from 1996 through 2009. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System conducts surveillance of resistance among Salmonella isolated from humans. From 1996 through 2009, public health laboratories submitted isolates for antimicrobial susceptibility testing. We used interpretive criteria from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute and defined isolates with ciprofloxacin resistance or intermediate susceptibility as nonsusceptible to ciprofloxacin. Using logistic regression, we modeled annual data to assess changes in antimicrobial resistance. RESULTS: From 1996 through 2009, the percentage of nontyphoidal Salmonella isolates resistant to ceftriaxone increased from 0.2% to 3.4% (odds ratio [OR]=20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3-64), and the percentage with nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin increased from 0.4% to 2.4% (OR=8.3, 95% CI 3.3-21). The percentage of isolates that were multidrug resistant (resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) decreased from 17% to 9.6% (OR=0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7), which was driven mainly by a decline among serotype Typhimurium. However, multidrug resistance increased from 5.9% in 1996 to a peak of 31% in 2001 among serotype Newport and increased from 12% in 1996 to 26% in 2009 (OR=2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2) among serotype Heidelberg. CONCLUSIONS: We describe an increase in resistance to ceftriaxone and nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin and an overall decline in multidrug resistance. Trends varied by serotype. Because of evidence that antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella is predominantly a consequence of antimicrobial use in food animals, efforts are needed to reduce unnecessary use, especially of critically important agents.

Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of Shigella isolates in Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) sites, 2000-2010.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of shigellosis with appropriate antimicrobial agents shortens duration of illness and bacterial shedding, but resistance to commonly used agents is increasing. METHODS: We describe resistance patterns among Shigella isolates in the United States with use of linked data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) and National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS). FoodNet sites send every 20th Shigella isolate to the NARMS laboratory for susceptibility testing. RESULTS: During 2000-2010, the NARMS laboratory tested 1376 Shigella isolates from FoodNet sites. Of 1118 isolates (81%) linked to FoodNet, 826 (74%) were resistant to ampicillin, 649 (58%) to streptomycin, 402 (36%) to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), 355 (32%) to sulfamethoxazole-sulfisoxazole, 312 (28%) to tetracycline, 19 (2%) to nalidixic acid, and 6 (0.5%) to ciprofloxacin. The proportion of Shigella isolates with resistance to TMP-SMX was 40% among white persons, 58% among Hispanic persons, and 75% among persons with a history of international travel. Resistance to at least TMP-SMX and ampicillin was present in 25% of isolate, and 5% were resistant to ampicillin, TMP-SMX, and chloramphenicol. Overall, 5% of isolates showed multidrug resistance to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole-sulfisoxazole, and tetracycline, including 49 Shigella flexneri (33%) and 3 Shigella sonnei (0.3%) isolates. Male individuals were more likely than female individuals to be infected with a multidrug-resistant strain (7% versus 3%; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Antimicrobial resistance differed by race, ethnicity, age, travel, and species. Resistance to commonly used antibiotics is high; therefore, it is important to look at the susceptibility pattern before starting treatment.

Typhoid fever outbreak associated with frozen mamey pulp imported from Guatemala to the western United States, 2010.

BACKGROUND: Fifty-four outbreaks of domestically acquired typhoid fever were reported between 1960 and 1999. In 2010, the Southern Nevada Health District detected an outbreak of typhoid fever among persons who had not recently travelled abroad. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to examine the relationship between illness and exposures. A case was defined as illness with the outbreak strain of Salmonella serotype Typhi, as determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), with onset during 2010. Controls were matched by neighborhood, age, and sex. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were completed using logistic regression. Traceback investigation was completed. RESULTS: We identified 12 cases in 3 states with onset from 15 April 2010 to 4 September 2010. The median age of case patients was 18 years (range, 4-48 years), 8 (67%) were female, and 11 (92%) were Hispanic. Nine (82%) were hospitalized; none died. Consumption of frozen mamey pulp in a fruit shake was reported by 6 of 8 case patients (75%) and none of the 33 controls (matched odds ratio, 33.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.9). Traceback investigations implicated 2 brands of frozen mamey pulp from a single manufacturer in Guatemala, which was also implicated in a 1998-1999 outbreak of typhoid fever in Florida. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting of individual cases of typhoid fever and subtyping of isolates by PFGE resulted in rapid detection of an outbreak associated with a ready-to-eat frozen food imported from a typhoid-endemic region. Improvements in food manufacturing practices and monitoring will prevent additional outbreaks.

Antimicrobial resistance among invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica isolates in the United States: National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, 1996 to 2007.

Nontyphoidal salmonellae (NTS) are important causes of community-acquired bloodstream infection. We describe patterns of antimicrobial resistance among invasive NTS in the United States. We compared bloodstream NTS isolates with those from stool submitted to the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) from 1996 to 2007. We describe antimicrobial resistance among invasive strains by serogroup and serotype. Of the 19,302 NTS isolates, 17,804 (92.2%) were from stool or blood. Of these, 1,050 (5.9%) were bloodstream isolates. The median ages (ranges) of patients with and without bacteremia were 36 (<1 to 97) years and 20 (<1 to 105) years, respectively (P < 0.001). Males (odds ratio [OR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.38) and those ≥65 years of age were at greater risk for invasive disease. Salmonella enterica serotypes Enteritidis, Typhimurium, and Heidelberg were the most common serotypes isolated from blood; S. enterica serotypes Dublin, Sandiego, and Schwarzengrund were associated with the greatest risk for bloodstream isolation. Of invasive isolates, 208 (19.8%) were resistant to ampicillin, 117 (11.1%) to chloramphenicol, and 26 (2.5%) to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole; 28 (2.7%) isolates were resistant to nalidixic acid and 26 (2.5%) to ceftriaxone. Antimicrobial resistance to traditional agents is common. However, the occurrence of nalidixic acid and ceftriaxone resistance among invasive NTS is cause for clinical and public health vigilance.

Diarrhea prevention in people living with HIV: an evaluation of a point-of-use water quality intervention in Lagos, Nigeria.

Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Africa. The impact of a point-of-use water chlorination and storage intervention on diarrheal-disease risk in a population of HIV-infected women in Lagos, Nigeria was evaluated. A baseline survey was performed, followed by six weeks of baseline diarrhea surveillance consisting of weekly home visits, distribution of free water chlorination products and safe storage containers to project participants, and continued weekly home-based diarrhea surveillance for 15 additional weeks. To confirm use of the water chlorination product, during each home visit, stored water was tested for residual chlorine. About 187 women were enrolled. At baseline, 80% of women had access to improved water supplies and 95% had access to sanitation facilities. Following distribution of the intervention, water stored in participants' households was observed to have residual chlorine during 50-80% of home visits, a sign of adherence to recommended water-treatment practices. Diarrhea rates in project participants were 36% lower in the post-intervention period than during the baseline period (p=0.04). Diarrhea rates were 46% lower in the post-intervention period than the baseline period among project participants who were confirmed to have residual chlorine in stored water during 85% or more of home visits (p=0.04); there was no significant difference in diarrhea rates between baseline and post-intervention periods in participants confirmed to have residual chlorine in stored water during less than 85% of home visits. The percent change in diarrhea rates between baseline and post-intervention surveillance periods was statistically significant among non-users of prophylactic antibiotics (-62%, p=0.02) and among persons who used neither prophylactic antibiotics nor antiretroviral treatment (-46%, p=0.04). Point-of-use water treatment was associated with a reduced risk of diarrhea in PLHIV. Regular water treatment was required to achieve health benefits.

Commensal Escherichia coli isolate resistant to eight classes of antimicrobial agents in the United States.

To increase understanding of community-acquired resistance, stool samples from 477 nonhospitalized persons in Maryland and Michigan, from 2004 to 2008, were screened for ceftriaxone resistance. Seven (1.5%) yielded ceftriaxone-resistant Escherichia coli; one isolate was resistant to all eight antimicrobial classes routinely tested: aminoglycosides, ß-lactam/ß-lactamase inhibitor combinations, cephems, penicillins, folate pathway inhibitors, phenicols, quinolones, and tetracyclines. The extensively resistant isolate was from a 50-year-old woman who denied antimicrobial use, hospitalization, or international travel within 6 months. Meat (beef, chicken, and pork) and eggs were consumed within 1 month before stool collection. Further studies are warranted to understand potential sources, including the food supply, of resistant E. coli.

Salmonella isolates with decreased susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the antimicrobial susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins in non-Typhi Salmonella (NTS) isolated from humans in the United States and explore resistance mechanisms for isolates displaying decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone or ceftiofur. We further explore the concordance between the newly revised Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) breakpoints for ceftriaxone and the presence of a ß-lactamase. METHODS: In 2005 and 2006, public health laboratories in all U.S. state health departments forwarded every 20th NTS isolate from humans to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as part of the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) for enteric bacteria. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were determined by broth microdilution. Isolates displaying decreased susceptibility (MIC ≥ 2 mg/L) to ceftriaxone or ceftiofur were included in the study. The presence of ß-lactamase genes was investigated by polymerase chain reaction amplification and sequencing, targeting six different genes (bla(TEM), bla(OXA), bla(SHV), bla(CTX-M), bla(PSE), and bla(CMY)). Plasmid location of bla(CMY) was confirmed by transforming plasmids into Escherichia coli. RESULTS: Among the 4236 isolates of NTS submitted to NARMS in 2005 and 2006, 175 (4.1%) displayed decreased susceptibility to either ceftriaxone or ceftiofur. By polymerase chain reaction screening, one or more ß-lactamase genes could be detected in 139 (80.8%) isolates. The most prevalent resistance mechanism detected was the AmpC ß-lactamase gene bla(CMY.) Other ß-lactamase genes detected included 11 bla(TEM-1), 3 bla(PSE-1), 2 bla(OXA-1), and 1 bla(CTX-M-15). The ceftriaxone MIC values for the bla(CMY)-containing isolates ranged from 4 to 64 mg/L; all bla(CMY)-bearing isolates were classified as ceftriaxone resistant according to current CLSI guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Among NTS isolates submitted to NARMS in 2005 and 2006, cephamycinase ß-lactamases are the predominant cause of decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone. The fact that all bla(CMY)-containing isolates were classified as resistant to ceftriaxone (MIC ≥ 4 mg/L) supports the newly revised CLSI breakpoints for cephalosporins and Enterobacteriaceae.

Use of the Staged Development Tool for Assessing, Planning, and Measuring Progress in the Development of National Public Health Institutes.

The Staged Development Tool (SDT) was created to help national public health institutes (NPHIs) assess their current capacity and develop roadmaps for achieving a higher level of functioning. This article discusses the current use of the SDT by national public health institutes to establish baseline capacity and inform strategic planning and its proposed use in a 3-step sequence for measuring the impact of capacity-building interventions over time. The article also includes descriptions of how national public health institutes have been using the SDT to assess their baseline capacity in management issues and core public health functions. The first use of the SDT by a national public health institute provides essential baseline information on their capacities and levels of functioning and plans for addressing gaps. By repeating the SDT after time for the plans to be implemented, the SDT can be used to evaluate changes in capacity and the effectiveness of the interventions made. Because the SDT is built to be complementary to existing assessments and public health strengthening tools and guidelines, implementing the SDT provides concrete, complementary information that can help countries achieve global health security goals and address current and future threats to public health.

Reduced azithromycin susceptibility in Shigella sonnei, United States.

To investigate azithromycin susceptibility in Shigella sonnei in the United States, we examined the azithromycin minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of outbreak and routine human S. sonnei isolates. Isolate susceptibility clustered at 8 mg/L, but three isolates displayed higher MICs (>64 mg/L) to azithromycin. All three isolates contained a plasmid-encoded mphA gene, known to encode a macrolide-2'-phosphotransferase enzyme. Transformation of the mphA gene into Escherichia coli DH10B allowed the transfer of decreased susceptibility to azithromycin. Although these isolates might traditionally be defined as resistant, there are no established breakpoints for resistance to confirm that treatment of these isolates with azithromycin would fail, which complicates susceptibility screening.

Microbiologic and clinical features of Salmonella species isolated from bacteremic children in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: The morbidity of Salmonella bloodstream infections is unacceptably high in Africa. In 2000, the WHO Global Salmonella-Surveillance (GSS) program was founded to reduce the health burden of foodborne diseases. The incorporation, in 2002, of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in this program allowed the improvement of laboratory capacities. In this retrospective study, we describe the first signs of impact the GSS program has had in DRC in the management of bacteremia. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2006, we evaluated, in one pediatric hospital, the microbiologic and clinical features of Salmonella isolated from children suspected of having bacteremia. A random selection of isolates was typed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). RESULTS: Among the 1528 children included in the study, 26.8% were bacteremic. Salmonella accounted for 59% of all bloodstream infections. Salmonella typhimurium (60.5%) and Salmonella enteritidis (22.3%) were the most common Salmonella serotypes. In total, 92.4% were resistant to at least 3 antimicrobials with the following proportion of strains resistant to: ampicillin (86%), chloramphenicol (92%), trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (95%), and tetracycline (34%). In 2002, 32.1% of children received an appropriate empiric antimicrobial treatment. In 2006, with the restoration of the confidence in the results provided by the laboratory, we observed an increase of the proportion of patients appropriately (82.9%) treated with antimicrobials (P < 0.01) without any decrease in the overall mortality rates associated with salmonellae bacteremia. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate the benefit to strengthen laboratory capacities in Africa, allowing the development of management guidelines of bloodstream infection.

Could a single dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children be effective? Modeling the optimal age of vaccination.

Using incidence rates from CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance and immunogenicity data from the Navajo/Apache trial of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), we used Markov modeling to predict the optimal age to give a single dose of PCV. Antibody concentration thresholds of 0.35 and 1.0 mcg/ml were considered protective. Our outcome was vaccine serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence at 24 months. The models predicted the optimal age to vaccinate is 5-7 months with vaccine-induced immunologic memory and 8-10 months without memory. IPD reduction ranged from 15 to 62%, depending on model parameters. A single PCV dose in infants could prevent substantial IPD.