Prevalence dependent calibration of a predictive model for nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

BACKGROUND: Published models predicting nasal colonization with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among hospital admissions predominantly focus on separation of carriers from non-carriers and are frequently evaluated using measures of discrimination. In contrast, accurate estimation of carriage probability, which may inform decisions regarding treatment and infection control, is rarely assessed. Furthermore, no published models adjust for MRSA prevalence. METHODS: Using logistic regression, a scoring system (values from 0 to 200) predicting nasal carriage of MRSA was created using a derivation cohort of 3091 individuals admitted to a European tertiary referral center between July 2007 and March 2008. The expected positive predictive value of a rapid diagnostic test (GeneOhm, Becton & Dickinson Co.) was modeled using non-linear regression according to score. Models were validated on a second cohort from the same hospital consisting of 2043 patients admitted between August 2008 and January 2012. Our suggested correction score for prevalence was proportional to the log-transformed odds ratio between cohorts. Calibration before and after correction, i.e. accurate classification into arbitrary strata, was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow-Test. RESULTS: Treating culture as reference, the rapid diagnostic test had positive predictive values of 64.8% and 54.0% in derivation and internal validation corhorts with prevalences of 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. In addition to low prevalence, low positive predictive values were due to high proportion (> 66%) of mecA-negative Staphylococcus aureus among false positive results. Age, nursing home residence, admission through the medical emergency department, and ICD-10-GM admission diagnoses starting with "A" or "J" were associated with MRSA carriage and were thus included in the scoring system, which showed good calibration in predicting probability of carriage and the rapid diagnostic test's expected positive predictive value. Calibration for both probability of carriage and expected positive predictive value in the internal validation cohort was improved by applying the correction score. CONCLUSIONS: Given a set of patient parameters, the presented models accurately predict a) probability of nasal carriage of MRSA and b) a rapid diagnostic test's expected positive predictive value. While the former can inform decisions regarding empiric antibiotic treatment and infection control, the latter can influence choice of screening method.

Face perception in patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate and patients with severe Class III malocclusion compared to controls.

Although there is principal agreement that increased facial asymmetry is associated with decreased facial attractiveness, there are no studies analysing face perception in patients with a unilateral cleft lip and palate (CLP) (uCLP) compared to orthognathic Class III patients. To this end, three-dimensional (3D) data on the faces of 30 adults with a complete uCLP, 20 orthognathic patients with a severe skeletal Class III, and 20 adults with a skeletal Class I as a control group were generated. The 3D asymmetry of the facial soft-tissue was analysed. These data were compared with subjective ratings for attractiveness carried out by 100 laypersons. Compared to the controls, uCLP patients and orthognathic patients had a significantly higher facial asymmetry. No difference was found between uCLP patients and orthognathic patients. The attractiveness ratings showed that uCLP patients and orthognathic patients were rated less attractive compared to the controls. However, although there were no differences in the facial asymmetry between uCLP patients and orthognathic patients, the uCLP patients were rated significantly less attractive. This leads to the conclusion that not only the extent of asymmetry has an influence on attractiveness but also the location of asymmetry. For clinical use, these findings underline the importance of accurate as possible surgical reconstruction of the nasal morphology in uCLP patients.