Developing a consensus-based definition of out-of-hospital clinical deterioration: A Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical deterioration is a time-critical medical emergency requiring rapid recognition and intervention. Deteriorating patients are seen across various healthcare settings, including the out-of-hospital (OOH) environment. OOH care is an evolving area of medicine where decisions are made regarding priority and timing of clinical interventions, ongoing management, and transport to appropriate care. To date, the literature lacks a standardised definition of OOH clinical deterioration. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to create a consensus-based definition of OOH clinical deterioration informed by emergency medicine health professionals. METHODS: A Delphi study consisting three rounds was conducted electronically between June 2020 and January 2021. The expert panel consisted of 30 clinicians, including emergency physicians and paramedics. RESULTS: A consensus-based definition of OOH clinical deterioration was identified as changes from a patient's baseline physiological status resulting in their condition worsening. These changes primarily take the form of measurable vital signs and assessable symptoms but should be evaluated in conjunction with the history of events and pertinent risk factors. Clinicians should be suspicious that a patient could deteriorate when changes occur in one or more of the following vital signs: respiratory rate, heart rate, blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, oxygen saturation, electrocardiogram, and skin colour. Almost all participants (92%) indicated an early warning system would be helpful to assist timely recognition of deteriorating patients. CONCLUSION: The creation of a consensus-based definition of OOH clinical deterioration can serve as a starting point for the development and validation of OOH-specific early warning systems. Moreover, a standardised definition allows meaningful comparisons to be made across health services and ensures consistency in future research. This study has shown recognition of OOH clinical deterioration to be a complex issue requiring further research. Improving our understanding of key factors contributing to deterioration can assist timely recognition and intervention, potentially reducing unnecessary morbidity and mortality.

A prediction model for prehospital clinical deterioration: The use of early warning scores.

BACKGROUND: Various prognosticative approaches to assist in recognizing clinical deterioration have been proposed. To date, early warning scores (EWSs) have been evaluated in hospital with limited research investigating their suitability in the prehospital setting. This study evaluated the predictive ability of established EWSs and other clinical factors for prehospital clinical deterioration. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study investigating adult patients of all etiologies attended by Queensland Ambulance Service paramedics between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, was conducted. With logistic regression, several models were developed to predict adverse event outcomes. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Queensland Adult Deterioration Detection System (Q-ADDS), and shock index were calculated from vital signs taken by paramedics. RESULTS: A total of 1,422,046 incidents met the inclusion criteria. NEWS, MEWS, and Q-ADDS were found to have comparably high predictive ability with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) between 70% and 90%, whereas shock index had relatively low AUC-ROC. Sensitivity was lower than specificity for all models. Although established EWSs performed well when predicting adverse events, these scores require complex calculations requiring multiple vital signs that may not be suitable for the prehospital setting. CONCLUSIONS: This study found NEWS, MEWS, and Q-ADDS all performed well in the prehospital setting. Although a simple shock index is easier for paramedics to use in the prehospital environment, it did not perform comparably to established EWSs. Further research is required to develop suitably performing parsimonious solutions until established EWSs are integrated into technological solutions to be used by prehospital clinicians in real time.

Challenges to recognising patients at risk of out-of-hospital clinical deterioration.

BACKGROUND: The acute derangement of physiological function is a time-critical medical emergency requiring prompt recognition. As autonomous practitioners in resource scarce, high-risk environments, clinical deterioration can impose complex and increased clinical demands on paramedics. Early recognition is imperative to facilitating proactive responses to mitigate adverse effects. This study aimed to determine if clinicians can meet consensus regarding meaningful clinical factors for recognising to out-of-hospital (OOH) clinical deterioration risk. METHODS: A three-round electronic Delphi study was conducted between June 2020 and January 2021. The expert panel was composed of 30 clinicians, including paramedics and emergency physicians. Participants were presented with eight clinically diverse case vignettes addressing various clinical factors related to OOH clinical deterioration. RESULTS: Participants identified various challenges related to the recognition of OOH clinical deterioration. Although participants were able to meet consensus on most clinical factors related to deterioration, consensus was not achieved where cases had a combination of factors including: medical aetiology, subtle vital sign changes, non-specific complaints, age-extreme patients, and presence of co-morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that clinicians face various challenges to recognising clinical deterioration in the OOH setting. Better understanding these challenging patient cohorts could assist to increase awareness and improve early recognition of OOH clinical deterioration.