People's desire to be in nature and how they experience it are partially heritable.

Nature experiences have been linked to mental and physical health. Despite the importance of understanding what determines individual variation in nature experience, the role of genes has been overlooked. Here, using a twin design (TwinsUK, number of individuals = 2,306), we investigate the genetic and environmental contributions to a person's nature orientation, opportunity (living in less urbanized areas), and different dimensions of nature experience (frequency and duration of public nature space visits and frequency and duration of garden visits). We estimate moderate heritability of nature orientation (46%) and nature experiences (48% for frequency of public nature space visits, 34% for frequency of garden visits, and 38% for duration of garden visits) and show their genetic components partially overlap. We also find that the environmental influences on nature experiences are moderated by the level of urbanization of the home district. Our study demonstrates genetic contributions to individuals' nature experiences, opening a new dimension for the study of human-nature interactions.

Indigenous Peoples' Lands are critical for safeguarding vertebrate diversity across the tropics.

Indigenous Peoples are long-term custodians of their lands, but only recently are their contributions to conservation starting to be recognized in biodiversity policy and practice. Tropical forest loss and degradation are lower in Indigenous lands than unprotected areas, yet the role of Indigenous Peoples' Lands (IPL) in biodiversity conservation has not been properly assessed from regional to global scales. Using species distribution ranges of 11,872 tropical forest-dependent vertebrates to create area of habitat maps, we identified the overlap of these species ranges with IPL and then compared values inside and outside of IPL for species richness, extinction vulnerability, and range-size rarity. Of assessed vertebrates, at least 76.8% had range overlaps with IPL, on average overlapping ~25% of their ranges; at least 120 species were found only within IPL. Species richness within IPL was highest in South America, while IPL in Southeast Asia had highest extinction vulnerability, and IPL in Dominica and New Caledonia were important for range-size rarity. Most countries in the Americas had higher species richness within IPL than outside, whereas most countries in Asia had lower extinction vulnerability scores inside IPL and more countries in Africa and Asia had slightly higher range-size rarity in IPL. Our findings suggest that IPL provide critical support for tropical forest-dependent vertebrates, highlighting the need for greater inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in conservation target-setting and program implementation, and stronger upholding of Indigenous Peoples' rights in conservation policy.

Ability of new protected areas to counteract losses from downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement.

Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) is a common occurrence. Although PADDD is expected to weaken biodiversity protection, PADDD offsets and new unrelated protected areas (PAs) could help restore representation of biodiversity features to the reserve network affected by PADDD. Globally, we analyzed 16 territories with terrestrial PADDD and 4 territories with marine PADDD from 2011 to 2020. Our objective was to evaluate whether PADDD offsets and new PAs could restore the PAs, key biodiversity areas (KBAs), ecoregions, and threatened amphibian, mammal, bird, and reptile species ranges where PADDD had occurred. In our studied territories, offsets of PADDD were rare (enacted in 3 [19%] terrestrial territories and one [25%] marine territory). One territory had PADDD losses that were compensated fully by PADDD offsets in terms of area coverage and ecoregions represented. All other territories failed to achieve compensation goals. In territories affected by PADDD, PADDD offsets and new PAs partially restored area representation (63%) and KBA coverage (57%). However, only 38% of ecoregion representation and 20%, 33%, 31%, and 21% of threatened amphibian, mammal, bird, and reptile representation, respectively, were restored. Overall, we found a large shortfall in PADDD offsets, even when unrelated PAs were included in the calculus. There is an urgent need to expand PADDD offsets and PAs to advance biodiversity conservation and achieve the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30×30 target. Future planning of newly enacted conservation areas needs to prioritize biodiversity conservation and consider the purpose of restoring reserve networks affected by PADDD, rather than solely focusing on areal targets.

Capacidad de las áreas protegidas nuevas para contrarrestar las pérdidas por el cambio de categoría, la reducción de tamaño y la desclasificación Resumen La degradación, reducción y desclasificación de áreas protegidas (DRDAP) es un fenómeno común. Aunque se espera que la DRDAP debilite la protección de la biodiversidad, las compensaciones de la DRDAP y las nuevas áreas protegidas (AP) sin relación podrían ayudar a restaurar la representación de las características de la biodiversidad en la red de reservas afectadas por la DRDAP. Analizamos 16 territorios a nivel mundial con DRDAP terrestre y cuatro territorios con DRDAP marina entre 2011 y 2020. Nuestro objetivo era evaluar si las compensaciones de la DRDAP y las nuevas AP podrían restaurar las AP, las áreas clave para la biodiversidad (ACB), las ecorregiones y las áreas de distribución de especies amenazadas de anfibios, mamíferos, aves y reptiles donde se había producido la DRDAP. En nuestros territorios estudiados, las compensaciones de DRDAP fueron escasas (promulgadas en tres [19%] territorios terrestres y un [25%] territorio marino). Un territorio tuvo pérdidas de DRDAP que fueron compensadas totalmente por compensaciones de DRDAP en términos de cobertura de área y ecorregiones representadas. En los demás territorios no se alcanzaron los objetivos de compensación. En los territorios afectados por la DRDAP, las compensaciones de la DRDAP y las nuevas AP restauraron parcialmente la representación de la superficie (63%) y la cobertura de las ACB (57%). Sin embargo, sólo se restauró el 38% de la representación de la ecorregión y el 20%, 33%, 31% y 21% de la representación de anfibios, mamíferos, aves y reptiles amenazados, respectivamente. En general, encontramos un gran déficit en las compensaciones DRDAP, incluso cuando se incluyeron APs no relacionadas en el cálculo. Existe una necesidad urgente de ampliar las compensaciones DRDAP y las AP para avanzar en la conservación de la biodiversidad y alcanzar el objetivo 30x30 del Marco Global de Biodiversidad. La planificación futura de las áreas de conservación de nueva creación debe dar prioridad a la conservación de la biodiversidad y tener en cuenta el propósito de restaurar las redes de reservas afectadas por la DRDAP, en lugar de centrarse únicamente en objetivos de área.

Time Series Transcriptomic Analysis of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Cells from Piglets Infected with Virulent or Low-Virulent Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus 1.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) has evolved to escape the immune surveillance for a survival advantage leading to a strong modulation of host's immune responses and favoring secondary bacterial infections. However, limited data are available on how the immunological and transcriptional responses elicited by virulent and low-virulent PRRSV-1 strains are comparable and how they are conserved during the infection. To explore the kinetic transcriptional signature associated with the modulation of host immune response at lung level, a time-series transcriptomic analysis was performed in bronchoalveolar lavage cells upon experimental in vivo infection with two PRRSV-1 strains of different virulence, virulent subtype 3 Lena strain or the low-virulent subtype 1 3249 strain. The time-series analysis revealed overlapping patterns of dysregulated genes enriched in T-cell signaling pathways among both virulent and low-virulent strains, highlighting an upregulation of co-stimulatory and co-inhibitory immune checkpoints that were disclosed as Hub genes. On the other hand, virulent Lena infection induced an early and more marked "negative regulation of immune system process" with an overexpression of co-inhibitory receptors genes related to T-cell and NK cell functions, in association with more severe lung lesion, lung viral load, and BAL cell kinetics. These results underline a complex network of molecular mechanisms governing PRRSV-1 immunopathogenesis at lung level, revealing a pivotal role of co-inhibitory and co-stimulatory immune checkpoints in the pulmonary disease, which may have an impact on T-cell activation and related pathways. These immune checkpoints, together with the regulation of cytokine-signaling pathways, modulated in a virulence-dependent fashion, orchestrate an interplay among pro- and anti-inflammatory responses. IMPORTANCE Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is one of the major threats to swine health and global production, causing substantial economic losses. We explore the mechanisms involved in the modulation of host immune response at lung level performing a time-series transcriptomic analysis upon experimental infection with two PRRSV-1 strains of different virulence. A complex network of molecular mechanisms was revealed to control the immunopathogenesis of PRRSV-1 infection, highlighting an interplay among pro- and anti-inflammatory responses as a potential mechanism to restrict inflammation-induced lung injury. Moreover, a pivotal role of co-inhibitory and co-stimulatory immune checkpoints was evidenced, which may lead to progressive dysfunction of T cells, impairing viral clearance and leading to persistent infection, favoring as well secondary bacterial infections or viral rebound. However, further studies should be conducted to evaluate the functional role of immune checkpoints in advanced stages of PRRSV infection and explore a possible T-cell exhaustion state.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Mapping the cryptic spread of the 2015-2016 global Zika virus epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics. METHODS: We developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016. RESULTS: We have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only). CONCLUSION: Our study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Travel cost analysis of an urban protected area and parks in Singapore: a mobile phone data application.

Big data have the potential to improve nonmarket valuation, but their application has been scarce. To test this potential, we apply mobile phone data to the zonal travel cost method and measure recreational ecosystem services from Bukit Timah (representing an urban protected area) and Jurong Lake Gardens (an urban recreational park) in Singapore. The study results show that the annual recreational benefits of the recreational park (S$54,698,761 to S$66,805,454) outweighed the benefits of the protected area (S$6,947,974 to S$9,068,027). The count data structure reduced the flexibility of the mobile phone data application. Compared to survey data, however, mobile phone data could prevent random errors and visitor memory biases; monitor impacts of site quality changes over time; count visitors from multiple entrances; and be cost-efficient. Overall, these results highlight the potential of mobile phone data application to improve travel cost analysis.

Adaptive hybrid robotic system for rehabilitation of reaching movement after a brain injury: a usability study.

BACKGROUND: Brain injury survivors often present upper-limb motor impairment affecting the execution of functional activities such as reaching. A currently active research line seeking to maximize upper-limb motor recovery after a brain injury, deals with the combined use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) and mechanical supporting devices, in what has been previously termed hybrid robotic systems. This study evaluates from the technical and clinical perspectives the usability of an integrated hybrid robotic system for the rehabilitation of upper-limb reaching movements after a brain lesion affecting the motor function. METHODS: The presented system is comprised of four main components. The hybrid assistance is given by a passive exoskeleton to support the arm weight against gravity and a functional electrical stimulation device to assist the execution of the reaching task. The feedback error learning (FEL) controller was implemented to adjust the intensity of the electrical stimuli delivered on target muscles according to the performance of the users. This control strategy is based on a proportional-integral-derivative feedback controller and an artificial neural network as the feedforward controller. Two experiments were carried out in this evaluation. First, the technical viability and the performance of the implemented FEL controller was evaluated in healthy subjects (N = 12). Second, a small cohort of patients with a brain injury (N = 4) participated in two experimental session to evaluate the system performance. Also, the overall satisfaction and emotional response of the users after they used the system was assessed. RESULTS: In the experiment with healthy subjects, a significant reduction of the tracking error was found during the execution of reaching movements. In the experiment with patients, a decreasing trend of the error trajectory was found together with an increasing trend in the task performance as the movement was repeated. Brain injury patients expressed a great acceptance in using the system as a rehabilitation tool. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the technical feasibility of using the hybrid robotic system for reaching rehabilitation. Patients' reports on the received intervention reveal a great satisfaction and acceptance of the hybrid robotic system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospective trial registration in ISRCTN Register with study ID ISRCTN12843006 .

Why do we lose protected areas? Factors influencing protected area downgrading, downsizing and degazettement in the tropics and subtropics.

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic and structural variables, using a 110-year data set of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and subtropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks.

Five challenges to reconcile agricultural land use and forest ecosystem services in Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia possesses the highest rates of tropical deforestation globally and exceptional levels of species richness and endemism. Many countries in the region are also recognized for their food insecurity and poverty, making the reconciliation of agricultural production and forest conservation a particular priority. This reconciliation requires recognition of the trade-offs between competing land-use values and the subsequent incorporation of this information into policy making. To date, such reconciliation has been relatively unsuccessful across much of Southeast Asia. We propose an ecosystem services (ES) value-internalization framework that identifies the key challenges to such reconciliation. These challenges include lack of accessible ES valuation techniques; limited knowledge of the links between forests, food security, and human well-being; weak demand and political will for the integration of ES in economic activities and environmental regulation; a disconnect between decision makers and ES valuation; and lack of transparent discussion platforms where stakeholders can work toward consensus on negotiated land-use management decisions. Key research priorities to overcome these challenges are developing easy-to-use ES valuation techniques; quantifying links between forests and well-being that go beyond economic values; understanding factors that prevent the incorporation of ES into markets, regulations, and environmental certification schemes; understanding how to integrate ES valuation into policy making processes, and determining how to reduce corruption and power plays in land-use planning processes.

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

Quantifying the role of online news in linking conservation research to Facebook and Twitter.

Conservation science needs to engage the general public to ensure successful conservation interventions. Although online technologies such as Twitter and Facebook offer new opportunities to accelerate communication between conservation scientists and the online public, factors influencing the spread of conservation news in online media are not well understood. We explored transmission of conservation research through online news articles with generalized linear mixed-effects models and an information theoretic approach. In particular, we assessed differences in the frequency conservation research is featured on online news sites and the impact of online conservation news content and delivery on Facebook likes and shares and Twitter tweets. Five percent of articles in conservation journals are reported in online news, and the probability of reporting depended on the journal. There was weak evidence that articles on climate change and mammals were more likely to be featured. Online news articles about charismatic mammals with illustrations were more likely to be shared or liked on Facebook and Twitter, but the effect of news sites was much larger. These results suggest journals have the greatest impact on which conservation research is featured and that news site has the greatest impact on how popular an online article will be on Facebook and Twitter.

Review of a two-year methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening program and cost-effectiveness analysis in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) poses an increasingly large disease and economic burden worldwide. The effectiveness of screening programs in the tropics is poorly understood. The aims of this study are: (i) to analyze the factors affecting MRSA colonization at admission and acquisition during hospitalization and (ii) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a screening program which aims to control MRSA incidence during hospitalization. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of patients admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre (CDC) in Singapore between Jan 2009 and Dec 2010 when there was an ongoing selective screening and isolation program. Risk factors contributing to MRSA colonization on admission and acquisition during hospital stay were evaluated using a logistic regression model. In addition, a cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to determine the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted due to implementing the screening and isolation program. RESULTS: The average prevalence rate of screened patients at admission and the average acquisition rate at discharge during the study period were 12.1 and 4.8 % respectively. Logistic regression models showed that older age (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95 % CI 1.02-1.04, p < 0.001) and dermatological conditions (adjusted OR 1.49, 95 % CI 1.11-1.20, p = 0.008) were independently associated with an increased risk of MRSA colonization at admission. Age (adjusted OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.01-1.03, p = 0.002) and length of stay in hospital (adjusted OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001) were independent factors associated with MRSA acquisition during hospitalization. The screening and isolation program reduced the acquisition rate by 1.6 % and was found to be cost saving. For the whole study period, the program cost US$129,916, while it offset hospitalization costs of US$103,869 and loss of productivity costs of US$50,453 with -400 $/DALY averted. DISCUSSION: This study is the first to our knowledge that evaluates the cost-effectiveness of screening and isolation of MRSA patients in a tropical country. Another unique feature of the analysis is the evaluation of acquisition rates among specific types of patients (dermatological, HIV and infectious disease patients)and the comparison of the cost-effectiveness of screening and isolation between them. CONCLUSIONS: Overall our results indicate high MRSA prevalence that can be cost effectively reduced by selective screening and isolation programs in Singapore.

Amyophatic dermatomyositis presenting as a flagellated skin eruption with positive MDA5 antibodies and thyroid cancer: a real association?

Amyopathic dermatomyositis (ADM) is characterized clinically by typical skin lesions with hypomyopathy or no muscular involvement. ADM has been recently reported to be complicated by rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD), especially in patients with positive antibodies against melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 (MDA5). These patients may have a low risk of cancer, but no clinical, histological or laboratory markers completely specific for paraneoplastic DM have been identified to date. We report a case of flagellate erythema as the initial presentation of ADM associated with ILD, positive MDA5 antibodies and a concomitant diagnosis of thyroid cancer. We discuss the unusual clinical features and associations that make this case particularly interesting.

Effects of eccentric overload bout on change of direction and performance in soccer players.

The aims of this study were to analyse the effects of eccentric overload training (EOT) on kinetic parameters during change of direction (COD) and performance related to sprinting and jumping abilities. 20 male soccer players performed 2 different protocols: 1) 5-min cycling warm-up and 2) 5-min cycling warm-up+YoYo half-squat exercise. The outcome measured included vertical ground reaction force (vGRF) and propulsive force (PvGRF), time to vGRF (T_vGRF) and propulsive force (T_PvGRF), contact time (CT), eccentric (ECC_IMP), concentric (CONC_IMP) and total (TOT_IMP) impulses and moments (Mx, My and Mz) during 2 COD tasks. Additionally, subjects performed a counter-movement jump (CMJ) and 20 m sprint tests. Results showed a substantial better improvement (likely to almost certainly) in vGRF (ES: 0.84), vAGRF (ES: 0.72), CT (ES: 0.48), My (ES: 0.35), Mz (ES: 0.44) and ECC_IMP (ES: 0.45) during crossover cutting maneuver, whereas during side-step cutting maneuver Time_ECC (ES: 0.68), CT (ES: 0.64), vGRF (ES: 0.48) and My (ES: 0.47) were substantially enhanced (likely). Furthermore, substantial better performance was found in CMJ (ES: 0.47; very likely) and 20 m (ES: 0.20; possibly). In conclusion, EOT produced a better muscle activation during 2 different COD tasks and greater sprinting and jumping performance.

Alzheimer's disease and disseminated mycoses.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the presence in the brain of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles that provoke neuronal cell death, vascular dysfunction and inflammatory processes. In the present work, we have analyzed the existence of fungal infection in AD patients. A number of tests have been carried out in blood serum, including the detection of antibodies against several yeast species and fungal proteins, and also the presence of fungal (1,3)-ß-glucan. Results from this analysis indicate that there is disseminated fungal infection in the majority of AD patients tested. Of interest, several AD patients contain high levels of fungal polysaccharides in peripheral blood, reflecting that disseminated fungal infection occurs in these patients. Together, these results suggest the presence of disseminated mycoses in blood serum from AD patients. To our knowledge these findings represent the first evidence that fungal infection is detectable in blood samples in AD patients. The possibility that this may represent a risk factor or may contribute to the etiological cause of AD is discussed.

A framework for assessing supply-side wildlife conservation.

Market-based, supply-side interventions such as domestication, cultivation, and wildlife farming have been proposed as legal substitutes for wild-collected plants and animals in the marketplace. Based on the literature, we devised a list of the conditions under which supply-side interventions may yield positive conservation outcomes. We applied it to the trade of the orchid Rhynchostylis gigantea, a protected ornamental plant. We conducted a survey of R. gigantea at Jatujak Market in Bangkok, Thailand. Farmed (legal) and wild (illegal, protected) specimens of R. gigantea were sold side-by-side at market. These results suggest farmed specimens are not being substituted for wild plants in the marketplace. For any given set of physical plant characteristics (size, condition, flowers), the origin of the plants (wild vs. farmed) did not affect price. For all price classes, farmed plants were of superior quality to wild-collected plants on the basis of most physical variables. These results suggest wild and farmed specimens represent parallel markets and may not be substitutable goods. Our results with R. gigantea highlight a range of explanations for why supply-side interventions may lack effectiveness, for example, consumer preferences for wild-collected products and low financial incentives for farming. Our results suggest that market-based conservation strategies may not be effective by themselves and may be best utilized as supplements to regulation and education. This approach represents a broad, multidisciplinary evaluation of supply-side interventions that can be applied to other plant and animal species.

A ranking of net national contributions to climate change mitigation through tropical forest conservation.

Deforestation in tropical regions causes 15% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions and reduces the mitigation potential of carbon sequestration services. A global market failure occurs as the value of many ecosystem services provided by forests is not recognised by the markets. Identifying the contribution of individual countries to tropical carbon stocks and sequestration might help identify responsibilities and facilitate debate towards the correction of the market failure through international payments for ecosystem services. We compare and rank tropical countries' contributions by estimating carbon sequestration services vs. emissions disservices. The annual value of tropical carbon sequestration services in 2010 from 88 tropical countries was estimated to range from $2.8 to $30.7 billion, using market and social prices of carbon respectively. Democratic Republic of Congo, India and Sudan contribute the highest net carbon sequestration, whereas Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia are the highest net emitters.

Applying deep learning on social media to investigate cultural ecosystem services in protected areas worldwide.

Protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of conservation efforts. Although they provide many benefits to humanity, the variability in the provision of cultural ecosystem services (CES) among global PAs remains unknown. To investigate this, we combined Convolutional Neural Networks with hierarchical clustering to categorize photos from Flickr taken in PAs worldwide. A final sample of 87,090 photos in 2813 PAs within 207 countries was obtained. Distinct global patterns of CES activities emerged. Such activities had three main interaction types: human-nature (abiotic), human-nature (biotic) and human-human. Human-nature (abiotic) interactions dominated in mountain ranges. Human-nature (biotic) photos were more common in equatorial countries, and human-human photos occurred mainly in Europe. To determine the extent of the influence of biome type of PAs on CES, mixed-effects models were subsequently run. These models additionally included the country of PAs as a random effect. Despite differences in physical environments, PAs within each country generally shared similar CES types. Moreover, the effect of biome differences was marginal, thereby demonstrating that country-level management of PAs likely has a more important role in influencing CES activities in PAs. To conclude, we suggest that our results demonstrate the utility of social media data for understanding visitor activities in PAs.

Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration.

Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100 and the resulting implications for carbon and biodiversity. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.