Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration.

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.

Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective.

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.

Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework.

The West Florida Shelf (WFS), located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, fosters high species richness and supports highly valuable fisheries. However, red tide events occur regularly that can impact fisheries resources as well as ecosystem state, functioning, and derived services. Therefore, it is important to evaluate and quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of red tides to improve population assessments, mitigate potential negative effects through management, and better understand disturbances to support an ecosystem-based management framework. To model red tide effects on the marine community, we used Ecospace, the spatiotemporal module of the ecosystem modeling framework Ecopath with Ecosim. The inclusion of both lethal and sublethal response functions to red tide and a comprehensive calibration procedure allowed to systematically evaluate red tide effects and increased the robustness of the model and management applicability. Our results suggest severe red tide impacts have occurred on the WFS at the ecosystem, community, and population levels in terms of biomass, catch, and productivity. Sublethal and indirect food-web effects of red tide triggered compensatory responses such as avoidance behavior and release from predation and/or competition.. This study represents a step forward to operationalize spatiotemporal ecosystem models for management purposes that may increase the ability of fisheries managers to respond more effectively and be more proactive to episodic mortality events, such as those caused by red tides.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of estimated environmental niche hypervolumes for marine fishes.

Understanding how species respond to the environment is essential in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Abiotic factors can influence species responses and the multi-dimensional space of abiotic factors that allows a species to grow represents the environmental niche. While niches are often assumed to be constant and robust, they are most likely changing over time and estimation can be influenced by population biology, sampling intensity, and computation methodology. Here, we used a 12-year time series of survey data to fit annual ecological niche models (ENMs) for 10 marine fish species by using two regression and two machine learning algorithms to evaluate the variation and differentiation of environmental niches. Fitted ENMs were used to develop multi-dimensional annual and pooled hypervolumes that were evaluated over time and across ENM algorithms, species, and years by computing volume, distance, and dissimilarity metrics for each annual estimated niche. We then investigated potential drivers of estimated hypervolume dynamics including species abundance, species occurrence, sampling effort, salinity, red tides severity, and algorithm. Overall, our results revealed that estimated niches varied over time and across ENM, species, and algorithms. Niche estimation was influenced over time by multiple factors suggesting high complexity on niche dynamics interpretation. Species with high occurrence tended to have a closer representation of the pooled niche and years with higher abundance tended to produce niche expansion. ENM algorithm, sampling effort, seawater salinity, and red tides explained the deviations from the pooled niche. Greater sampling effort led to more comprehensive and complete estimates of species niches. High red tides severity triggered niche contraction. Our results emphasize the predictable effects of population, sampling, and environment on species niche estimation and interpretation, and that each should be considered when performing and interpreting ecological niche analyses. Our niche analysis approach may contribute to effectively quantifying and assessing niche dynamics.

Changes in Reef Fish Community Structure Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

Large-scale anthropogenic disturbances can have direct and indirect effects on marine communities, with direct effects often taking the form of widespread injury or mortality and indirect effects manifesting as changes in food web structure. Here, we report a time series that captures both direct and indirect effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DWH) on northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) reef fish communities. We observed significant changes in community structure immediately following the DWH, with a 38% decline in species richness and 26% decline in Shannon-Weiner diversity. Initial shifts were driven by widespread declines across a range of trophic guilds, with subsequent recovery unevenly distributed among guilds and taxa. For example, densities of small demersal invertivores, small demersal browsers, generalist carnivores, and piscivores remained persistently low with little indication of recovery seven years after the DWH. Initial declines among these guilds occurred prior to the arrival of the now-widespread, invasive lionfish (Pterois spp.), but their lack of recovery suggests lionfish predation may be affecting recovery. Factors affecting persistently low densities of generalist carnivores and piscivores are not well understood but warrant further study given the myriad ecosystem services provided by nGoM reef fishes.

Author Correction: Changes in Reef Fish Community Structure Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.