A descriptive analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of enteric diseases in New Brunswick, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Enteric diseases affect thousands of Canadians annually and several large outbreaks have occurred due to infection with enteric pathogens. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial and temporal distributions of reportable Campylobacter, Escherichia coli, Giardia, Salmonella and Shigella from 1994 to 2002 in New Brunswick, Canada. By examining the spatial and temporal distributions of disease incidence, hypotheses as to potential disease risk factors were formulated. METHODS: Time series plots of monthly disease incidence were examined for seasonal and secular trends. Seasonality of disease incidence was evaluated using the temporal scan statistic and seasonal-trend loess (STL) decomposition methods. Secular trends were evaluated using negative binomial regression modeling. The spatial distribution of disease incidence was examined using maps of empirical Bayes smoothed estimates of disease incidence. Spatial clustering was examined by multiple methods, which included Moran's I and the spatial scan statistic. RESULTS: The peak incidence of Giardia infections occurred in the spring months. Salmonella incidence exhibited two peaks, one small peak in the spring and a main peak in the summer. Campylobacter and Escherichia coli O157 disease incidence peaked in the summer months. Moran's I indicated that there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation for the incidence of Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella. The spatial scan statistic identified clusters of high disease incidence in the northern areas of the province for Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella infections. The incidence of Escherichia coli infections clustered in the south-east and north-east areas of the province, based on the spatial scan statistic results. Shigella infections had the lowest incidence rate and no discernable spatial or temporal patterns were observed. CONCLUSIONS: By using several different spatial and temporal methods a robust picture of the spatial and temporal distributions of enteric disease in New Brunswick was produced. Disease incidence for several reportable enteric pathogens displayed significant geographic clustering indicating that a spatially distributed risk factor may be contributing to disease incidence. Temporal analysis indicated peaks in disease incidence, including previously un-reported peaks.

The panzootic spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 sublineage 2.3.4.4b: a critical appraisal of One Health preparedness and prevention.

Changes in the epidemiology and ecology of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza are devastating wild bird and poultry populations, farms and communities, and wild mammals worldwide. Having originated in farmed poultry, H5N1 viruses are now spread globally by wild birds, with transmission to many mammal and avian species, resulting in 2024 in transmission among dairy cattle with associated human cases. These ecological changes pose challenges to mitigating the impacts of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza on wildlife, ecosystems, domestic animals, food security, and humans. H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza highlights the need for One Health approaches to pandemic prevention and preparedness, emphasising multisectoral collaborations among animal, environmental, and public health sectors. Action is needed to reduce future pandemic risks by preventing transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza among domestic and wild animals and people, focusing on upstream drivers of outbreaks, and ensuring rapid responses and risk assessments for zoonotic outbreaks. Political commitment and sustainable funding are crucial to implementing and maintaining prevention programmes, surveillance, and outbreak responses.

Developing One Health surveillance systems.

The health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the environment are inter-dependent. Global anthropogenic change is a key driver of disease emergence and spread and leads to biodiversity loss and ecosystem function degradation, which are themselves drivers of disease emergence. Pathogen spill-over events and subsequent disease outbreaks, including pandemics, in humans, animals and plants may arise when factors driving disease emergence and spread converge. One Health is an integrated approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize human, animal and ecosystem health. Conventional disease surveillance has been siloed by sectors, with separate systems addressing the health of humans, domestic animals, cultivated plants, wildlife and the environment. One Health surveillance should include integrated surveillance for known and unknown pathogens, but combined with this more traditional disease-based surveillance, it also must include surveillance of drivers of disease emergence to improve prevention and mitigation of spill-over events. Here, we outline such an approach, including the characteristics and components required to overcome barriers and to optimize an integrated One Health surveillance system.

Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. RESULTS: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CONCLUSION: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.

A descriptive analysis of hospitalization due to acute gastrointestinal illness in Canada, 1995-2004.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal illness (GI) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In Canada, research has already demonstrated a rate in excess of one episode per person-year. National passive surveillance programs may be enhanced by information from hospitalizations for acute gastrointestinal disease. The objective of this report is to explore the incidence of acute GI in hospital administrative data collected by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI)--specifically the hospital morbidity database (HMDB). METHODS: Data from acute care facilities and select chronic care and rehabilitation facilities across Canada were analyzed using standardized rates, and age- and sex-adjusted rates for the years 1995-2004. RESULTS: The results indicate that GI causes at least 92,765 hospital admissions per year in Canada. In the majority (78.3%) of gastrointestinal hospitalizations, no specific etiology was recorded. Of the remaining diagnoses, 11.6% were due to viruses, 9.7% to bacteria and 0.3% to parasites. Age-standardized rates of hospitalizations for acute GI appear to have declined over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal illness is still present in the Canadian population and presents a significant burden to the health care system. Whereas the HMDB likely underestimates the true rate of GI, it does capture cases that are serious enough to require hospitalization. This is a unique source of data and highlights other pathogen-specific disease data not currently collected through national surveillance tools (e.g., viruses).

Infectious disease outbreaks related to drinking water in Canada, 1974-2001.

BACKGROUND: Recent public attention on drinking water supplies in the aftermath of waterborne infection outbreaks in Walkerton and North Battleford raises questions about safety. We analyzed information on waterborne outbreaks occurring between 1974 and 2001 in order to identify apparent trends, review the current status of monitoring and reporting, and gain a better understanding of the impact of drinking water quality on public health and disease burden. METHODS: Data from outbreak investigations, published and unpublished, were categorized by the type of drinking water provider and were assessed to be definitely, probably or possibly waterborne in nature. RESULTS: The final data set consisted of 288 outbreaks of disease linked to a drinking water source. There were 99 outbreaks in public water systems, 138 outbreaks in semi-public systems and 51 outbreaks in private systems. The main known causative agents of waterborne disease outbreaks were (in descending frequency of occurrence) Giardia, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Norwalk-like viruses, Salmonella and hepatitis A virus. SUMMARY: We found that severe weather, close proximity to animal populations, treatment system malfunctions, poor maintenance and treatment practices were associated with the reported disease outbreaks resulting from drinking water supplies. However, issues related to the accuracy, co-ordination, compatibility and detail of data exist. A systematic and coordinated national surveillance system for comparison purposes, trend identification and policy development is needed so that future waterborne disease outbreaks can be avoided.

A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces.

The incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population varies seasonally, and may be expected to be change in response to global climate changes. To better understand any potential impact of warmer temperature on enteric infections in Canada, we investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly reports of confirmed cases of three pathogens in Canada: Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli and Campylobacter, between 1992 and 2000 in two Canadian provinces. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to estimate the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. We found a strong non-linear association between ambient temperature and the occurrence of all three enteric pathogens in Alberta, Canada, and of Campylobacter in Newfoundland-Labrador. Threshold models were used to quantify the relationship of disease and temperature with thresholds chosen from 0 to -10 degrees C depending on the pathogen modeled. For Alberta, the log relative risk of Salmonella weekly case counts increased by 1.2%, Campylobacter weekly case counts increased by 2.2%, and E. coli weekly case counts increased by 6.0% for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature. For Newfoundland-Labrador the log relative risk increased by 4.5% for Campylobacter for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature.

A role of high impact weather events in waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada, 1975 - 2001.

Recent outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157:H7, Campylobacter, and Cryptosporidium have heightened awareness of risks associated with contaminated water supply. The objectives of this research were to describe the incidence and distribution of waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada in relation to preceding weather conditions and to test the association between high impact weather events and waterborne disease outbreaks. We examined extreme rainfall and spring snowmelt in association with 92 Canadian waterborne disease outbreaks between 1975 and 2001, using case-crossover methodology. Explanatory variables including accumulated rainfall, air temperature, and peak stream flow were used to determine the relationship between high impact weather events and the occurrence of waterborne disease outbreaks. Total maximum degree-days above 0 degrees C and accumulated rainfall percentile were associated with outbreak risk. For each degree-day above 0 degrees C the relative odds of an outbreak increased by a factor of 1.007 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.002 - 1.012). Accumulated rainfall percentile was dichotomized at the 93rd percentile. For rainfall events greater than the 93rd percentile the relative odds of an outbreak increased by a factor of 2.283 (95% [CI] = 1.216 - 4.285). These results suggest that warmer temperatures and extreme rainfall are contributing factors to waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada. This could have implications for water management and public health initiatives.