An Update to the Kaiser Permanente Inpatient Risk Adjustment Methodology Accurately Predicts In-Hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Methods to accurately predict the risk of in-hospital mortality are important for applications including quality assessment of healthcare institutions and research. OBJECTIVE: To update and validate the Kaiser Permanente inpatient risk adjustment methodology (KP method) to predict in-hospital mortality, using open-source tools to measure comorbidity and diagnosis groups, and removing troponin which is difficult to standardize across modern clinical assays. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data from GEMINI. GEMINI is a research collaborative that collects administrative and clinical data from hospital information systems. PARTICIPANTS: Adult general medicine inpatients at 28 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between April 2010 and December 2022. MAIN MEASURES: The outcome was in-hospital mortality, modeled by diagnosis group using 56 logistic regressions. We compared models with and without troponin as an input to the laboratory-based acute physiology score. We fit and validated the updated method using internal-external cross-validation at 28 hospitals from April 2015 to December 2022. KEY RESULTS: In 938,103 hospitalizations with 7.2% in-hospital mortality, the updated KP method accurately predicted the risk of mortality. The c-statistic at the median hospital was 0.866 (see Fig. 3) (25th-75th 0.848-0.876, range 0.816-0.927) and calibration was strong for nearly all patients at all hospitals. The 95th percentile absolute difference between predicted and observed probabilities was 0.038 at the median hospital (25th-75th 0.024-0.057, range 0.006-0.118). Model performance was very similar with and without troponin in a subset of 7 hospitals, and performance was similar with and without troponin for patients hospitalized for heart failure and acute myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: An update to the KP method accurately predicted in-hospital mortality for general medicine inpatients in 28 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. This updated method can be implemented in a wider range of settings using common open-source tools.

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and the risk of heart failure: A nationwide cohort study of older adults with diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: To analyse the rate of heart failure hospitalization for older adults prescribed a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study cohort included adults aged 66 years and older diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in Ontario, Canada, between July 2015 and March 2019, who received either an SGLT2 inhibitor or a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor. The primary outcome was a composite of heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included diabetic ketoacidosis and hypoglycaemia. RESULTS: A total of 29 916 adults prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor were compared with 29 916 adults prescribed a DPP-4 inhibitor. The mean age was 72 years, 60% were men, the baseline glycated haemoglobin concentration was 8.2% and the baseline creatinine was 89 µmol/L. The incidence rate of the primary outcome was 19/1000 person-years for adults prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor compared to 38/1000 person-years in those prescribed a DPP-4 inhibitor. This resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45, 0.54) and a rate difference (RD) of 19 fewer events per 1000 person-years (RD -19 [95% CI -22, -17]). Patients prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor also had a lower rate of hypoglycaemia (HR 0.61 [95% CI 0.46, 0.81); RD -1.6 [95% CI -2.4, -0.8]), but a higher rate of diabetic ketoacidosis (HR 1.84 [95% CI 1.26, 2.70]; RD 1.0 [95% CI 0.4, 1.6]). CONCLUSIONS: Older adults prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor had a lower rate of heart failure hospitalization or death, and a lower rate of hypoglycaemia, but an increased rate of diabetic ketoacidosis compared to older adults prescribed a DPP-4 inhibitor.

Effectiveness and Safety of Apixaban Compared With Rivaroxaban for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in Routine Practice: A Cohort Study.

Background: Apixaban and rivaroxaban are the most commonly prescribed direct oral anticoagulants for adults with atrial fibrillation, but head-to-head data comparing their safety and effectiveness are lacking. Objective: To compare the safety and effectiveness of apixaban versus rivaroxaban for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Design: New-user, active-comparator, retrospective cohort study. Setting: A U.S. nationwide commercial health care claims database from 28 December 2012 to 1 January 2019. Patients: Adults newly prescribed apixaban (n = 59 172) or rivaroxaban (n = 40 706). Measurements: The primary effectiveness outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism. The primary safety outcome was a composite of intracranial hemorrhage or gastrointestinal bleeding. Results: 39 351 patients newly prescribed apixaban were propensity score matched to 39 351 patients newly prescribed rivaroxaban. Mean age was 69 years, 40% of patients were women, and mean follow-up was 288 days for new apixaban users and 291 days for new rivaroxaban users. The incidence rate of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism was 6.6 per 1000 person-years for adults prescribed apixaban compared with 8.0 per 1000 person-years for those prescribed rivaroxaban (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82 [95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98]; rate difference, 1.4 fewer events per 1000 person-years [CI, 0.0 to 2.7]). Adults prescribed apixaban also had a lower rate of gastrointestinal bleeding or intracranial hemorrhage (12.9 per 1000 person-years) compared with those prescribed rivaroxaban (21.9 per 1000 person-years), corresponding to an HR of 0.58 (CI, 0.52 to 0.66) and a rate difference of 9.0 fewer events per 1000 person-years (CI, 6.9 to 11.1). Limitation: Unmeasured confounding, incomplete laboratory data. Conclusion: In routine care, adults with atrial fibrillation prescribed apixaban had a lower rate of both ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding compared with those prescribed rivaroxaban. Primary Funding Source: Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital.

Growth and Development in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants After the Introduction of Exclusive Human Milk Feedings.

Objective To estimate associations of exclusive human milk (EHM) feedings with growth and neurodevelopment through 18 months corrected age (CA) in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. Study Design ELBW infants admitted from July 2011 to June 2013 who survived were reviewed. Infants managed from July 2011 to June 2012 were fed with bovine milk-based fortifiers and formula (BOV). Beginning in July 2012, initial feedings used a human milk-based fortifier to provide EHM feedings. Infants were grouped on the basis of feeding regimen. Primary outcomes were the Bayley-III cognitive scores at 6, 12, and 18 months and growth. Results Infants (n = 85; 46% received EHM) were born at 26 ± 1.9 weeks (p = 0.92 between groups) weighing 776 ± 139 g (p = 0.67 between groups). Cognitive domain scores were similar at 6 months (BOV: 96 ± 7; EHM: 95 ± 14; p = 0.70), 12 months (BOV: 97 ± 10; EHM: 98 ± 9; p = 0.86), and 18 months (BOV: 97 ± 16; EHM: 98 ± 14; p = 0.71) CA. Growth velocity prior to discharge (BOV: 12.1 ± 5.2 g/kg/day; EHM: 13.1 ± 4.0 g/kg/day; p = 0.33) and subsequent growth was similar between groups. Conclusion EHM feedings appear to support similar growth and neurodevelopment in ELBW infants as compared with feedings containing primarily bovine milk-based products.

Characterization of the teneurin C-terminal associated peptide (TCAP) in the vase tunicate, Ciona intestinalis: A novel peptide system associated with energy metabolism and reproduction.

The vase tunicate, Ciona intestinalis, is a protochordate and is considered a sister lineage to the chordates. The recent sequencing of its genome has made this species a particularly important model to understand the genetic basis of vertebrate evolution. However, C. intestinalis is also a highly invasive species along the Atlantic coast of North America and other regions of the world which have caused considerable economic stress due to its biofouling actions and, in particular, negative impacts on the mussel- and oyster-based aquaculture industry. Despite this background, little is known about C. intestinalis physiology. The teneurin C-terminal associated peptides (TCAP) are a family of highly conserved peptide hormones found in most metazoans. Moreover, these peptides have been implicated in the inhibition of stress and stimulation of feeding-based metabolism. We have, therefore, identified this peptide using an in silico approach and characterized its immunological expression in tissues using a mouse polyclonal antiserum. These data indicate that its primary structure is more similar to invertebrate TCAPs relative to vertebrate TCAPs. Immunological expression indicates that it is highly expressed in the digestive tract and gonads consistent with findings in vertebrates. Synthetic mouse TCAP-1 administered into the brachial basket significantly increases the incidence of non-stress contractile behaviors. These findings support the hypothesis that TCAP is a bioactive peptide in C. intestinalis. Thus, C. intestinalis and tunicates in general may offer a simple model to investigate peptide interaction while providing information on how to control this invasive species.

C-terminal region of teneurin-1 co-localizes with the dystroglycan complex in adult mouse testes and regulates testicular size and testosterone production.

Testicular size is directly proportional to fertility potential and is dependent on the integration of developmental proteins, trophic factors, and sex steroids. The teneurins are transmembrane glycoproteins that function as signaling and cell adhesion molecules in the establishment and maintenance of the somatic gonad, gametogenesis, and basement membrane. Moreover, teneurins are thought to function redundantly to the extracellular matrix protein, dystroglycan. Encoded on the last exon of the teneurin genes is a family of bioactive peptides termed the teneurin C-terminal-associated peptides (TCAPs). One of these peptides, TCAP-1, functionally interacts with ß-dystroglycan to act as a neuromodulatory peptide with trophic characteristics independent from the teneurins. However, little is known about the localization and relationship between the teneurin-TCAP-1 system and the dystroglycans in the gonad. In the adult mouse testis, immunoreactive TCAP-1 was localized to spermatogonia and spermatocytes and co-localized with ß-dystroglycan. However, teneurin-1 was localized to the peritubular myoid cell layer of seminiferous tubules and tubules within the epididymis, and co-localized with α-dystroglycan and α-smooth muscle actin. TCAP-1-binding sites were identified in the germ cell layers and adluminal compartment of the seminiferous tubules, and epithelial cells of the epididymis. In vivo, TCAP-1 administration to adult mice for 9 days increased testicular size, seminiferous and epididymal tubule short-diameter and elevated testosterone levels. TCAP-1-treated mice also showed increased TCAP-1 immunoreactivity in the caput and corpa epididymis. Our data provide novel evidence of TCAP-1 localization in the testes that is distinct from teneurin-1, but is integrated through an association with the dystroglycan complex.

Validation of the Diagnostic Accuracy Levels of International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision Codes for Diabetic Ketoacidosis: A Multicentre, Cross-sectional Study of Adults.

OBJECTIVES: International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes are commonly used to identify cases of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in health services research, but they have not been validated. Our aim in this study was to assess the accuracy of ICD, 10th revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes for DKA. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, cross-sectional study using data from 5 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Each hospitalization event has a single most responsible diagnosis code. We identified all hospitalizations assigned diagnosis codes for DKA. A true case of DKA was defined using laboratory values (serum bicarbonate ≤18 mmol/L, arterial pH ≤7.3, anion gap ≥14 mEq/L, and presence of ketones in urine or blood). Chart review was conducted to validate DKA if laboratory values were missing or the diagnosis of DKA was unclear. Outcome measures included positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity, and specificity of ICD-10 codes in patients with laboratory-defined DKA. RESULTS: We identified 316,517 hospitalizations. Among these, 312,948 did not have an ICD-10 diagnosis code for DKA and 3,569 had an ICD-10 diagnosis code for DKA. Using a combination of laboratory and chart review, we identified that the overall PPV was 67.0%, the NPV was 99.7%, specificity was 99.6%, and sensitivity was 74.9%. When we restricted our analysis to hospitalizations in which DKA was the most responsible discharge diagnosis (n=3,374 [94.5%]), the test characteristics were PPV 69.8%, NPV 99.7%, specificity 99.7%, and sensitivity 71.9%. CONCLUSION: ICD-10 codes can identify patients with DKA among those admitted to general internal medicine.

Development and external validation of tools for categorizing diagnosis codes in international hospital data.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Classification Software Refined (CCSR) is a tool that groups many thousands of International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes into approximately 500 clinically meaningful categories, simplifying analyses. However, CCSR was developed for use in the United States and may not work well with other country-specific ICD-10 coding systems. METHOD: We developed an algorithm for semi-automated matching of Canadian ICD-10 codes (ICD-10-CA) to CCSR categories using discharge diagnoses from adult admissions at 7 hospitals between Apr 1, 2010 and Dec 31, 2020, and manually validated the results. We then externally validated our approach using inpatient hospital encounters in Denmark from 2017 to 2018. KEY RESULTS: There were 383,972 Canadian hospital admissions with 5,186 distinct ICD-10-CA diagnosis codes and 1,855,837 Danish encounters with 4,612 ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Only 46.6% of Canadian codes and 49.4% of Danish codes could be directly categorized using the official CCSR tool. Our algorithm facilitated the mapping of 98.5% of all Canadian codes and 97.7% of Danish codes. Validation of our algorithm by clinicians demonstrated excellent accuracy (97.1% and 97.0% in Canadian and Danish data, respectively). Without our algorithm, many common conditions did not match directly to a CCSR category, such as 96.6% of hospital admissions for heart failure. CONCLUSION: The GEMINI CCSR matching algorithm (available as an open-source package at https://github.com/GEMINI-Medicine/gemini-ccsr) improves the categorization of Canadian and Danish ICD-10 codes into clinically coherent categories compared to the original CCSR tool. We expect this approach to generalize well to other countries and enable a wide range of research and quality measurement applications.

Association Between Diabetes and Mortality Among Adult Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Cohort Study of Hospitalized Adults in Ontario, Canada, and Copenhagen, Denmark.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetes has been reported to be associated with an increased risk of death among patients with COVID-19. However, the available studies lack detail on COVID-19 illness severity and measurement of relevant comorbidities. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, retrospective cohort study of patients 18 years of age and older who were hospitalized with COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and November 30, 2020, in Ontario, Canada, and Copenhagen, Denmark. Chart abstraction emphasizing comorbidities and disease severity was performed by trained research personnel. The association between diabetes and death was measured using Poisson regression. The main outcome measure was in-hospital 30-day risk of death. RESULTS: Our study included 1,133 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Ontario and 305 in Denmark, of whom 405 and 75 patients, respectively, had pre-existing diabetes. In both Ontario and Denmark, patients with diabetes were more likely to be older; have chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and higher troponin levels; and be receiving antibiotics, when compared with adults without diabetes. In Ontario, 24% (n=96) of adults with diabetes died compared with 15% (n=109) of adults without diabetes. In Denmark, 16% (n=12) of adults with diabetes died in hospital compared with 13% (n=29) of those without diabetes. In Ontario, the crude mortality ratio among patients with diabetes was 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24 to 2.07) and in the adjusted regression model it was 1.19 (95% CI, 0.86 to 1.66). In Denmark, the crude mortality ratio among patients with diabetes was 1.27 (95% CI, 0.68 to 2.36) and in the adjusted model it was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.49 to 1.54). Meta-analysis of the 2 rate ratios from each region resulted in a crude mortality ratio of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.22 to 1.96) and an adjusted mortality ratio of 1.11 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.47). CONCLUSION: The presence of diabetes was not strongly associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality independent of illness severity and other comorbidities.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Risk of Diabetic Ketoacidosis Among Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The magnitude and precision regarding the risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors is unclear. Thus, we examined the risk of DKA with SGLT2 inhibitors in both observational studies and large clinical trials. METHODS: Searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL and Google Scholar (from inception to April 15, 2019) without language restrictions, including conference proceedings and reference lists. Study selection consisted of randomized controlled trials and observational studies that quantified the rate of DKA with an SGLT2 inhibitor in comparison to other diabetes medications or placebo. Two independent investigators abstracted the study data and assessed the quality of evidence. Data were pooled using random effects models with the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method. Absolute event rates and hazard ratios for DKA were extracted from each study. RESULTS: Seven randomized trials encompassing 42,375 participants and 5 cohort studies encompassing 318,636 participants were selected. Among the 7 randomized controlled trials, the absolute rate of DKA among patients randomized to an SGLT2 inhibitor ranged from 0.6 to 2.2 events per 1,000 person years. Four randomized trials were included in the meta-analysis and, compared with placebo or comparator medication, SGLT2 inhibitors had a 2.5-fold higher risk of DKA (relative risk [RR], 2.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 5.21]; I2=0%; p=0.54). Among the 5 observational studies, the absolute rate of DKA associated with SGLT2 inhibitor use ranged from 0.6 to 4.9 per 1,000 person years and a 1.7-fold higher rate of DKA compared with another diabetes medication (RR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.83; I2=45%; p=0.12). CONCLUSIONS: In adults with type 2 diabetes, SGLT2 inhibitors were found to increase the risk of DKA in both observational studies and large randomized clinical trials.

Prone positioning of patients with moderate hypoxaemia due to covid-19: multicentre pragmatic randomised trial (COVID-PRONE).

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of prone positioning to reduce the risk of death or respiratory failure in non-critically ill patients admitted to hospital with covid-19. DESIGN: Multicentre pragmatic randomised clinical trial. SETTING: 15 hospitals in Canada and the United States from May 2020 until May 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible patients had a laboratory confirmed or a clinically highly suspected diagnosis of covid-19, needed supplemental oxygen (up to 50% fraction of inspired oxygen), and were able to independently lie prone with verbal instruction. Of the 570 patients who were assessed for eligibility, 257 were randomised and 248 were included in the analysis. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomised 1:1 to prone positioning (that is, instructing a patient to lie on their stomach while they are in bed) or standard of care (that is, no instruction to adopt prone position). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital death, mechanical ventilation, or worsening respiratory failure defined as needing at least 60% fraction of inspired oxygen for at least 24 hours. Secondary outcomes included the change in the ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen. RESULTS: The trial was stopped early on the basis of futility for the pre-specified primary outcome. The median time from hospital admission until randomisation was 1 day, the median age of patients was 56 (interquartile range 45-65) years, 89 (36%) patients were female, and 222 (90%) were receiving oxygen via nasal prongs at the time of randomisation. The median time spent prone in the first 72 hours was 6 (1.5-12.8) hours in total for the prone arm compared with 0 (0-2) hours in the control arm. The risk of the primary outcome was similar between the prone group (18 (14%) events) and the standard care group (17 (14%) events) (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.44 to 1.92). The change in the ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen after 72 hours was similar for patients randomised to prone positioning and standard of care. CONCLUSION: Among non-critically ill patients with hypoxaemia who were admitted to hospital with covid-19, a multifaceted intervention to increase prone positioning did not improve outcomes. However, wide confidence intervals preclude definitively ruling out benefit or harm. Adherence to prone positioning was poor, despite multiple efforts to increase it. Subsequent trials of prone positioning should aim to develop strategies to improve adherence to awake prone positioning. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04383613.

Variation in the risk of death due to COVID-19: An international multicenter cohort study of hospitalized adults.

BACKGROUND: There is wide variation in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Whether this is related to patient or hospital factors is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of mortality for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to determine whether the majority of that variation was explained by differences in patient characteristics across sites. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An international multicenter cohort study of hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 enrolled from 10 hospitals in Ontario, Canada and 8 hospitals in Copenhagen, Denmark between January 1, 2020 and November 11, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Inpatient mortality. We used a multivariable multilevel regression model to compare the in-hospital mortality risk across hospitals and quantify the variation attributable to patient-level factors. RESULTS: There were 1364 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ontario (n = 1149) and in Denmark (n = 215). In Ontario, the absolute risk of in-hospital mortality ranged from 12.0% to 39.8% across hospitals. Ninety-eight percent of the variation in mortality in Ontario was explained by differences in the characteristics of the patients. In Denmark, the absolute risk of inpatients ranged from 13.8% to 20.6%. One hundred percent of the variation in mortality in Denmark was explained by differences in the characteristics of the inpatients. CONCLUSION: There was wide variation in inpatient COVID-19 mortality across hospitals, which was largely explained by patient-level factors, such as age and severity of presenting illness. However, hospital-level factors that could have affected care, including resource availability and capacity, were not taken into account. These findings highlight potential limitations in comparing crude mortality rates across hospitals for the purposes of reporting on the quality of care.

Non-ABO red cell antibodies and risk of COVID-19.

It is not known whether non-ABO antibodies confer any protective effect against SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 severe illness alone or in conjunction with O blood group. This cohort study included 413 576 persons in Ontario, Canada with known ABO blood group and non-ABO antibody screen status, who subsequently underwent SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA polymerase chain reaction testing between January and November 2020. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 severe illness was not associated with the presence of non-ABO antibodies, even among persons with O blood group.

Lowering of hemoglobin A1C and risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality, a meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The management of type 2 diabetes predominantly focuses on reducing hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c). We examined the association between the magnitude of reduction in HbA1c and cardiovascular outcomes for new diabetes medications: sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 [SGLT2] inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 [GLP1] agonists, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 [DPP4] inhibitors. METHODS: We reviewed all published, placebo-controlled, randomized cardiovascular outcome trials. Meta-regression was performed to evaluate the association between HbA1c reduction (i.e., [post-intervention HbA1c for active drug - pre-intervention HbA1c for active drug] - [post-intervention HbA1c for placebo - pre-intervention HbA1c for placebo]) and the composite cardiovascular outcome (i.e., stroke, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death). RESULTS: We identified 14 cardiovascular outcome clinical trials, the median sample size was 9401, the median age was 64 years, the median time since diagnosis of diabetes was 12 years, and the median duration of trial follow-up was 120 weeks. Within individual medication classes, each additional 0.5% reduction in HbA1c in the active drug arm, relative to placebo, was associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events for GLP1 agonists (0.82, 0.68-0.98) but not for SGLT2 (0.97, 0.69-1.36) or DPP4 (1.03, 0.39-2.74) inhibitors. DISCUSSION: Our study provides further support that reducing the risk of cardiovascular events for adults with diabetes is partly explained by a reduction in HbA1c.