Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data.

Prevalence of impetigo (skin sores) remains high in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, Fiji, and other areas of socio-economic disadvantage. Skin sore infections, driven primarily in these settings by Group A Streptococcus (GAS) contribute substantially to the disease burden in these areas. Despite this, estimates for the force of infection, infectious period and basic reproductive ratio-all necessary for the construction of dynamic transmission models-have not been obtained. By utilising three datasets each containing longitudinal infection information on individuals, we estimate each of these epidemiologically important parameters. With an eye to future study design, we also quantify the optimal sampling intervals for obtaining information about these parameters. We verify the estimation method through a simulation estimation study, and test each dataset to ensure suitability to the estimation method. We find that the force of infection differs by population prevalence, and the infectious period is estimated to be between 12 and 20 days. We also find that optimal sampling interval depends on setting, with an optimal sampling interval between 9 and 11 days in a high prevalence setting, and 21 and 27 days for a lower prevalence setting. These estimates unlock future model-based investigations on the transmission dynamics of skin sores.

Repurposing antibiotic resistance surveillance data to support treatment of recurrent infections in a remote setting.

In northern Australia, a region with limited access to healthcare and a substantial population living remotely, antibiotic resistance adds to the complexity of treating infections. Focussing on Escherichia coli urinary tract infections (UTIs) and Staphylococcus aureus skin & soft tissue infections (SSTIs) captured by a northern Australian antibiotic resistance surveillance system, we used logistic regression to investigate predictors of a subsequent resistant isolate during the same infection episode. We also investigated predictors of recurrent infection. Our analysis included 98,651 E. coli isolates and 121,755 S. aureus isolates from 70,851 patients between January 2007 and June 2020. Following an initially susceptible E. coli UTI, subsequent recovery of a cefazolin (8%) or ampicillin (13%) -resistant isolate during the same infection episode was more common than a ceftriaxone-resistant isolate (2%). For an initially susceptible S. aureus SSTI, subsequent recovery of a methicillin-resistant isolate (8%) was more common than a trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole-resistant isolate (2%). For UTIs and SSTIs, prior infection with a resistant pathogen was a strong predictor of both recurrent infection and resistance in future infection episodes. This multi-centre study demonstrates an association between antibiotic resistance and an increased likelihood of recurrent infection. Particularly in remote areas, a patient's past antibiograms should guide current treatment choices since recurrent infection will most likely be at least as resistant as previous infection episodes. Using population-level surveillance data in this way can also help clinicians decide if they should switch antibiotics for patients with ongoing symptoms, while waiting for diagnostic results.

Contribution of socio-economic factors in the spread of antimicrobial resistant infections in Australian primary healthcare clinics.

OBJECTIVES: To effectively contain antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) infections, we must better understand the social determinates of health that contribute to transmission and spread of infections. METHODS: We used clinical data from patients attending primary healthcare clinics across three jurisdictions of Australia (2007-2019). Escherichia coli (E. coli), Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) and Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) isolates and their corresponding antibiotic susceptibilities were included. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed associations between AMR prevalence and indices of social disadvantage as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (i.e., remoteness, socio-economic disadvantage and average person per household). RESULTS: This study reports 12 years of longitudinal data from 43 448 isolates from a high-burden low-resource setting in Australia. Access to health and social services (as measured by remoteness index) was a risk factor for increased prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GC) E. coli (odds ratio 5.05; 95% confidence interval 3.19, 8.04) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) (odds ratio 5.72; 95% confidence interval 5.02, 6.54). We did not find a positive correlation of AMR and socio-economic disadvantage or average person per household indices. CONCLUSION: Remoteness is a risk factor for increased prevalence of 3GC-resistant E. coli and MRSA. We demonstrate that traditional disease surveillance systems can be repurposed to capture the broader social drivers of AMR. Access to pathogen-specific and social data early and within the local regional context will fill a significant gap in disease prevention and the global spread of AMR.

Antibiotic resistance in uropathogens across northern Australia 2007-20 and impact on treatment guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infections are common and are increasingly resistant to antibiotic therapy. Northern Australia is a sparsely populated region with limited access to healthcare, a relatively high burden of disease, a substantial regional and remote population, and high rates of antibiotic resistance in skin pathogens. OBJECTIVES: To explore trends in antibiotic resistance for common uropathogens Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in northern Australia, and how these relate to current treatment guidelines in the community and hospital settings. METHODS: We used data from an antibiotic resistance surveillance system. We calculated the monthly and yearly percentage of isolates that were resistant in each antibiotic class, by bacterium. We analysed resistance proportions geographically and temporally, stratifying by healthcare setting. Using simple linear regression, we investigated longitudinal trends in monthly resistance proportions and correlation between community and hospital isolates. RESULTS: Our analysis included 177 223 urinary isolates from four pathology providers between 2007 and 2020. Resistance to most studied antibiotics remained <20% (for E. coli and K. pneumoniae, respectively, in 2019: amoxicillin/clavulanate 16%, 5%; cefazolin 17%, 8%; nitrofurantoin 1%, 31%; trimethoprim 36%, 17%; gentamicin 7%, 2%; extended-spectrum cephalosporins 8%, 5%), but many are increasing by 1%-3% (absolute) per year. Patterns of resistance were similar between isolates from community and hospital patients. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic resistance in uropathogens is increasing in northern Australia, but treatment guidelines generally remain appropriate for empirical therapy of patients with suspected infection (except trimethoprim in some settings). Our findings demonstrate the importance of local surveillance data (HOTspots) to inform clinical decision making and guidelines.

Antimicrobial stewardship in remote primary healthcare across northern Australia.

BACKGROUND: The high burden of infectious disease and associated antimicrobial use likely contribute to the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in remote Australian Aboriginal communities. We aimed to develop and apply context-specific tools to audit antimicrobial use in the remote primary healthcare setting. METHODS: We adapted the General Practice version of the National Antimicrobial Prescribing Survey (GP NAPS) tool to audit antimicrobial use over 2-3 weeks in 15 remote primary healthcare clinics across the Kimberley region of Western Australia (03/2018-06/2018), Top End of the Northern Territory (08/2017-09/2017) and far north Queensland (05/2018-06/2018). At each clinic we reviewed consecutive clinic presentations until 30 presentations where antimicrobials had been used were included in the audit. Data recorded included the antimicrobials used, indications and treating health professional. We assessed the appropriateness of antimicrobial use and functionality of the tool. RESULTS: We audited the use of 668 antimicrobials. Skin and soft tissue infections were the dominant treatment indications (WA: 35%; NT: 29%; QLD: 40%). Compared with other settings in Australia, narrow spectrum antimicrobials like benzathine benzylpenicillin were commonly given and the appropriateness of use was high (WA: 91%; NT: 82%; QLD: 65%). While the audit was informative, non-integration with practice software made the process manually intensive. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of antimicrobial use in remote primary care are different from other settings in Australia. The adapted GP NAPS tool functioned well in this pilot study and has the potential for integration into clinical care. Regular stewardship audits would be facilitated by improved data extraction systems.

High burden of infectious disease and antibiotic use in early life in Australian Aboriginal communities.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the childhood infectious disease burden and antibiotic use in the Northern Territory's East Arnhem region through synthesis and analysis of historical data resources. METHODS: We combined primary health clinic data originally reported in three separate publications stemming from the East Arnhem Healthy Skin Project (Jan-01 to Sep-07). Common statistical techniques were used to explore the prevalence of infectious conditions and the seasonality of infections, and to measure rates of antibiotic use. RESULTS: There was a high monthly prevalence of respiratory (mean: 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 20%, 34%]) and skin (mean: 20% [95%CI: 19%, 22%]) infectious syndromes, with upper respiratory tract infections (mean: 29% [95%CI: 27%, 31%]) and skin sores (mean: 15% [95%CI: 14%, 17%]) the most common conditions. Antibiotics were frequently prescribed with 95% (95%CI: 91%, 97%) of children having received at least one antibiotic prescription by their first birthday, and 47% having received six antibiotic prescriptions; skin sores being a key driver. CONCLUSIONS: Early life infections drive high antibiotic prescribing rates in remote Aboriginal communities. Implications for public health: Eliminating skin disease could reduce antibiotic use by almost 20% in children under five years of age in this population.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccine during pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have an elevated risk of illness and hospitalisation from influenza. Pregnant women are recommended to be prioritised for influenza vaccination during any stage of pregnancy. The risk of seasonal influenza varies substantially throughout the year in temperate climates; however, there is limited knowledge of how vaccination timing during pregnancy impacts the benefits received by the mother and foetus. OBJECTIVES: To compare antenatal vaccination timing with regard to influenza vaccine immunogenicity during pregnancy and transplacental transfer to their newborns. METHODS: Studies were eligible for inclusion if immunogenicity to influenza vaccine was evaluated in women stratified by trimester of pregnancy. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres, stratified by trimester of vaccination, had to be measured at either pre-vaccination and within one month post-vaccination, post-vaccination and at delivery in the mother, or in cord/newborn blood. Authors searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and EMBASE databases from inception until June 2016 and authors of identified studies were contacted for additional data. Extracted data were tabulated and summarised via random-effect meta-analyses and qualitative methods. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses found that compared with women vaccinated in an earlier trimester, those vaccinated in a later trimester had a greater fold increase in HI titres (1.33- to 1.96-fold) and higher HI titres in cord/newborn blood (1.21- to 1.64-fold). CONCLUSIONS: This review provides comparative analysis of the effect of vaccination timing on maternal immunogenicity and protection of the infant that is informative and relevant to current vaccine scheduling for pregnant women.

Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Skin sores caused by Group A streptococcus (GAS) infection are a major public health problem in remote Aboriginal communities. Skin sores are often associated with scabies, which is evident in scabies intervention programs where a significant reduction of skin sores is seen after focusing solely on scabies control. Our study quantifies the strength of association between skin sores and scabies among Aboriginal children from the East Arnhem region in the Northern Territory. METHODS AND RESULTS: Pre-existing datasets from three published studies, which were conducted as part of the East Arnhem Healthy Skin Project (EAHSP), were analysed. Aboriginal children were followed from birth up to 4.5 years of age. Self-controlled case series design was used to determine the risks, within individuals, of developing skin sores when infected with scabies versus when there was no scabies infection. Participants were 11.9 times more likely to develop skin sores when infected with scabies compared with times when no scabies infection was evident (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 11.9; 95% CI 10.3-13.7; p<0.001), and this was similar across the five Aboriginal communities. Children had lower risk of developing skin sores at age ≤1 year compared to at age >1 year (IRR 0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9). CONCLUSION: The association between scabies and skin sores is highly significant and indicates a causal relationship. The public health importance of scabies in northern Australia is underappreciated and a concerted approach is required to recognise and eliminate scabies as an important precursor of skin sores.