Are we really Bayesian? Probabilistic inference shows sub-optimal knowledge transfer.

Numerous studies have found that the Bayesian framework, which formulates the optimal integration of the knowledge of the world (i.e. prior) and current sensory evidence (i.e. likelihood), captures human behaviours sufficiently well. However, there are debates regarding whether humans use precise but cognitively demanding Bayesian computations for behaviours. Across two studies, we trained participants to estimate hidden locations of a target drawn from priors with different levels of uncertainty. In each trial, scattered dots provided noisy likelihood information about the target location. Participants showed that they learned the priors and combined prior and likelihood information to infer target locations in a Bayes fashion. We then introduced a transfer condition presenting a trained prior and a likelihood that has never been put together during training. How well participants integrate this novel likelihood with their learned prior is an indicator of whether participants perform Bayesian computations. In one study, participants experienced the newly introduced likelihood, which was paired with a different prior, during training. Participants changed likelihood weighting following expected directions although the degrees of change were significantly lower than Bayes-optimal predictions. In another group, the novel likelihoods were never used during training. We found people integrated a new likelihood within (interpolation) better than the one outside (extrapolation) the range of their previous learning experience and they were quantitatively Bayes-suboptimal in both. We replicated the findings of both studies in a validation dataset. Our results showed that Bayesian behaviours may not always be achieved by a full Bayesian computation. Future studies can apply our approach to different tasks to enhance the understanding of decision-making mechanisms.

Lived experience research as a resource for recovery: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Lived experience research is conducted by people who have experience of mental health issues and is therefore better placed than more traditional research to illuminate participants' experiences. Findings that focus on identifying enablers of recovery from a lived experience perspective have the potential to assist people in their recovery process. However, this lived experience research is often difficult to find, access and interpret. We co-produced user-friendly and engaging resources to disseminate findings from six lived experience research studies. This paper seeks to answer the research questions: a) Did exposure to lived experience research increase hopefulness for participants?; and b) How else did interacting with lived experience research resources influence participants' lives? METHODS: Thirty-eight participants were introduced to four resources of their choosing by peer workers over a four-week period. The helpfulness of resources was evaluated using mixed methods, including a quasi-experimental analysis of change in hope, an anonymous survey and in-depth interviews. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the resources promoted hope, but that increases in hopefulness may not be seen immediately. Other impacts include that the resources: encouraged helpful activities; provided a positive experience; increased valued knowledge; encouraged people to reflect on their journey and think constructively about mental health issues; helped people to feel less alone; and assisted people to explain their situation to others. CONCLUSIONS: The research suggests the potential usefulness of lived experience research resources, presented in user-friendly formats, in the lives of people who experience mental health issues and implies a need to nurture this type of research.

Measuring the impact of an integrated bite case management program on the detection of canine rabies cases in Vietnam.

Introduction: Dog-mediated rabies is enzootic in Vietnam, resulting in at least 70 reported human deaths and 500,000 human rabies exposures annually. In 2016, an integrated bite cases management (IBCM) based surveillance program was developed to improve knowledge of the dog-mediated rabies burden in Phu Tho Province of Vietnam. Methods: The Vietnam Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (VARSP) was established in four stages: (1) Laboratory development, (2) Training of community One Health workers, (3) Paper-based-reporting (VARSP 1.0), and (4) Electronic case reporting (VARSP 2.0). Investigation and diagnostic data collected from March 2016 to December 2019 were compared with historical records of animal rabies cases dating back to January 2012. A risk analysis was conducted to evaluate the probability of a rabies exposure resulting in death after a dog bite, based on data collected over the course of an IBCM investigation. Results: Prior to the implementation of VARSP, between 2012 and 2015, there was an average of one rabies investigation per year, resulting in two confirmed and two probable animal rabies cases. During the 46 months that VARSP was operational (2016 - 2019), 1048 animal investigations were conducted, which identified 79 (8%) laboratory-confirmed rabies cases and 233 (22%) clinically-confirmed(probable) cases. VARSP produced a 78-fold increase in annual animal rabies case detection (one cases detected per year pre-VARSP vs 78 cases per year under VARSP). The risk of succumbing to rabies for bite victims of apparently healthy dogs available for home quarantine, was three deaths for every 10,000 untreated exposures. Discussion: A pilot IBCM model used in Phu Tho Province showed promising results for improving rabies surveillance, with a 26-fold increase in annual case detection after implementation of a One Health model. The risk for a person bitten by an apparently healthy dog to develop rabies in the absence of rabies PEP was very low, which supports the WHO recommendations to delay PEP for this category of bite victims, when trained animal assessors are available and routinely communicate with the medical sector. Recent adoption of an electronic IBCM system is likely to expedite adoption of VARSP 2.0 to other Provinces and improve accuracy of field decisions and data collection.

Expanding severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance beyond influenza: The process and data from 1 year of implementation in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, as a component of the Global Health Security Agenda, the Vietnam Ministry of Health expanded its existing influenza sentinel surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) to include testing for 7 additional viral respiratory pathogens. This article describes the steps taken to implement expanded SARI surveillance in Vietnam and reports data from 1 year of expanded surveillance. METHODS: The process of expanding the suite of pathogens for routine testing by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) included laboratory trainings, procurement/distribution of reagents, and strengthening and aligning SARI surveillance epidemiology practices at sentinel sites and regional institutes (RI). RESULTS: Surveillance data showed that of 4003 specimens tested by the RI laboratories, 20.2% (n = 810) were positive for influenza virus. Of the 3193 influenza-negative specimens, 41.8% (n = 1337) were positive for at least 1 non-influenza respiratory virus, of which 16.2% (n = 518), 13.4% (n = 428), and 9.6% (n = 308) tested positive for respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, and adenovirus, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Government of Vietnam has demonstrated that expanding respiratory viral surveillance by strengthening and building upon an influenza platform is feasible, efficient, and practical.