Infectious and clinical tuberculosis trajectories: Bayesian modeling with case finding implications.

The importance of finding people with undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) hinges on their future disease trajectories. Assays for systematic screening should be optimized to find those whose TB will contribute most to future transmission or morbidity. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model that tracks the future trajectories of individuals with TB at a cross-sectional timepoint ("baseline"), classifying them by bacterial burden (smear positive/negative) and symptom status (symptomatic/subclinical). We used Bayesian methods to calibrate this model to targets derived from historical survival data and notification, mortality, and prevalence data from five countries. We combined resulting disease trajectories with evidence on infectiousness to estimate each baseline TB state's contribution to future transmission. For a person with smear-negative subclinical TB at baseline, the expected future duration of disease was short (mean 4.8 [95% uncertainty interval 3.3 to 8.4] mo); nearly all disease courses ended in spontaneous resolution, not treatment. In contrast, people with baseline smear-positive subclinical TB had longer undiagnosed disease durations (15.9 [11.1 to 23.5] mo); nearly all eventually developed symptoms and ended in treatment or death. Despite accounting for only 11 to 19% of prevalent disease, smear-positive subclinical TB accounted for 35 to 51% of future transmission-a greater contribution than symptomatic or smear-negative TB. Subclinical TB with a high bacterial burden accounts for a disproportionate share of future transmission. Priority should be given to developing inexpensive, easy-to-use assays for screening both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals at scale-akin to rapid antigen tests for other diseases-even if these assays lack the sensitivity to detect paucibacillary disease.

The Impact of Preventive Treatment for Multidrug- and Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis Exceeds Trial-Based Estimates.

BACKGROUND: Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug- or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of delivering TPT to MDR/RR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure. METHODS: We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR/RR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India. We simulated contact investigation in households of patients with MDR/RR-TB, comparing an MDR/RR-TPT regimen (assuming 6-month duration, 70% efficacy) and associated active case finding against alternatives of contact investigation without TPT or no household intervention. We simulated the TB and MDR/RR-TB incidence averted relative to placebo over 2 years, as measurable by a typical trial, as well as the incidence averted over a longer time horizon, in the broader population, and relative to no contact investigation. RESULTS: Observing TPT and placebo recipients for 2 years as in a typical trial, MDR/RR-TPT was measured to prevent 72% (interquartile range, 45%-100%) of incident MDR/RR-TB among recipients; the median number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 MDR/RR-TB case was 73, compared to placebo. This NNT decreased to 54 with 13-18 years of observation, to 27 when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 when the effects of active TB screening were included by comparing to a no-household-contact-intervention scenario. CONCLUSIONS: If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB-including the large effect of increased active TB detection among MDR/RR-TB contacts-could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.

Cost-effectiveness of Low-complexity Screening Tests in Community-based Case-finding for Tuberculosis.

INTRODUCTION: In high-burden settings, low-complexity screening tests for tuberculosis (TB) could expand the reach of community-based case-finding efforts. The potential costs and cost-effectiveness of approaches incorporating these tests are poorly understood. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model assessing 3 approaches to community-based case-finding in hypothetical populations (India-, South Africa-, The Philippines-, Uganda-, and Vietnam-like settings) with TB prevalence 4 times that of national estimates: (1) screening with a point-of-care C-reactive protein (CRP) test, (2) screening with a more sensitive "Hypothetical Screening test" (95% sensitive for Xpert Ultra-positive TB, 70% specificity; equipment/labor costs similar to Xpert Ultra, but using a $2 cartridge) followed by sputum Xpert Ultra if positive, or (3) testing all individuals with sputum Xpert Ultra. Costs are expressed in 2023 US dollars and include treatment costs. RESULTS: Universal Xpert Ultra was estimated to cost a mean $4.0 million (95% uncertainty range: $3.5 to $4.6 million) and avert 3200 (2600 to 3900) TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100 000 people screened ($670 [The Philippines] to $2000 [Vietnam] per DALY averted). CRP was projected to cost $550 (The Philippines) to $1500 (Vietnam) per DALY averted but with 44% fewer DALYs averted. The Hypothetical Screening test showed minimal benefit compared to universal Xpert Ultra, but if specificity were improved to 95% and per-test cost to $4.5 (all-inclusive), this strategy could cost $390 (The Philippines) to $940 (Vietnam) per DALY averted. CONCLUSIONS: Screening tests can meaningfully improve the cost-effectiveness of community-based case-finding for TB but only if they are sensitive, specific, and inexpensive.

Evidence for Tuberculosis in Individuals With Xpert Ultra "Trace" Sputum During Screening of High-Burden Communities.

BACKGROUND: "Trace" results on Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra ("Ultra"; Cepheid) -a molecular diagnostic test for tuberculosis (TB)-are often interpreted as an indication for TB treatment, but may also represent detection of nonviable bacilli or analytical error. In community-screening settings where individual TB risk is low, there is limited guidance on how to interpret Ultra-trace results. METHODS: We conducted systematic Ultra TB screening of adults and adolescents (≥15 years) in Kampala, Uganda, through door-to-door and event-based sputum collection. We enrolled individuals with trace-positive sputum for detailed clinical, radiographic, and microbiological (including 2 sputum cultures, repeat Ultra, and for people with HIV, urine lipoarabinomannan) evaluation, and compared those findings with similar evaluations in controls with Ultra-negative and Ultra-positive (non-trace) sputum. RESULTS: Of 21 957 people screened with Ultra, 211 (1.0%) tested positive, including 96 (46% of positives) with trace results. Of 92 people enrolled with trace-positive sputum; 12% (11/92) were HIV-positive and 14% (13/92) had prior TB. The prevalence of TB among participants with trace-positive sputum results was 14% (13/92) by culture, 24% (22/92) using broader microbiological criteria, and 26% (24/92) after accounting for clinical diagnosis. The prevalence of cough and of abnormal chest computed tomography (CT) findings were 32% and 26%, respectively, if Ultra-negative; 34% and 54% if trace-positive/non-microbiologically confirmed; 72% and 95% if trace-positive/microbiologically confirmed; and 71% and 93% if Ultra-positive (more than trace). CONCLUSIONS: Most individuals with trace-positive sputum in Ugandan communities did not have microbiologically confirmed TB but had more symptoms and chest CT abnormalities than people with Ultra-negative sputum.

Comparison of 3 optimized delivery strategies for completion of isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) for tuberculosis prevention among people living with HIV in Uganda: A single-center randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Expanding access to shorter regimens for tuberculosis (TB) prevention, such as once-weekly isoniazid and rifapentine taken for 3 months (3HP), is critical for reducing global TB burden among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Our coprimary hypotheses were that high levels of acceptance and completion of 3HP could be achieved with delivery strategies optimized to overcome well-contextualized barriers and that 3HP acceptance and completion would be highest when PLHIV were provided an informed choice between delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a pragmatic, single-center, 3-arm, parallel-group randomized trial, PLHIV receiving care at a large urban HIV clinic in Kampala, Uganda, were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive 3HP by facilitated directly observed therapy (DOT), facilitated self-administered therapy (SAT), or informed choice between facilitated DOT and facilitated SAT using a shared decision-making aid. We assessed the primary outcome of acceptance and completion (≥11 of 12 doses of 3HP) within 16 weeks of treatment initiation using proportions with exact binomial confidence intervals (CIs). We compared proportions between arms using Fisher's exact test (two-sided α = 0.025). Trial investigators were blinded to primary and secondary outcomes by study arm. Between July 13, 2020, and July 8, 2022, 1,656 PLHIV underwent randomization, with equal numbers allocated to each study arm. One participant was erroneously enrolled a second time and was excluded in the primary intention-to-treat analysis. Among the remaining 1,655 participants, the proportion who accepted and completed 3HP exceeded the prespecified 80% target in the DOT (0.94; 97.5% CI [0.91, 0.96] p < 0.001), SAT (0.92; 97.5% CI [0.89, 0.94] p < 0.001), and Choice (0.93; 97.5% CI [0.91, 0.96] p < 0.001) arms. There was no difference in acceptance and completion between any 2 arms overall or in prespecified subgroup analyses based on sex, age, time on antiretroviral therapy, and history of prior treatment for TB or TB infection. Only 14 (0.8%) participants experienced an adverse event prompting discontinuation of 3HP. The main limitation of the study is that it was conducted in a single center. Multicenter studies are now needed to confirm the feasibility and generalizability of the facilitated 3HP delivery strategies in other settings. CONCLUSIONS: Short-course TB preventive treatment was widely accepted by PLHIV in Uganda, and very high levels of treatment completion were achieved in a programmatic setting with delivery strategies tailored to address known barriers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03934931.

Multicomponent Strategy with Decentralized Molecular Testing for Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Effective strategies are needed to facilitate the prompt diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of the disease. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial in which Ugandan community health centers were assigned to a multicomponent diagnostic strategy (on-site molecular testing for tuberculosis, guided restructuring of clinic workflows, and monthly feedback of quality metrics) or routine care (on-site sputum-smear microscopy and referral-based molecular testing). The primary outcome was the number of adults treated for confirmed tuberculosis within 14 days after presenting to the health center for evaluation during the 16-month intervention period. Secondary outcomes included completion of tuberculosis testing, same-day diagnosis, and same-day treatment. Outcomes were also assessed on the basis of proportions. RESULTS: A total of 20 health centers underwent randomization, with 10 assigned to each group. Of 10,644 eligible adults (median age, 40 years) whose data were evaluated, 60.1% were women and 43.8% had human immunodeficiency virus infection. The intervention strategy led to a greater number of patients being treated for confirmed tuberculosis within 14 days after presentation (342 patients across 10 intervention health centers vs. 220 across 10 control health centers; adjusted rate ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21 to 2.01). More patients at intervention centers than at control centers completed tuberculosis testing (adjusted rate ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.21 to 2.82), received a same-day diagnosis (adjusted rate ratio, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.39 to 2.56), and received same-day treatment for confirmed tuberculosis (adjusted rate ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.57 to 3.61). Among 706 patients with confirmed tuberculosis, a higher proportion in the intervention group than in the control group were treated on the same day (adjusted rate ratio, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.23 to 4.25) or within 14 days after presentation (adjusted rate ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.40). CONCLUSIONS: A multicomponent diagnostic strategy that included on-site molecular testing plus implementation supports to address barriers to delivery of high-quality tuberculosis evaluation services led to greater numbers of patients being tested, receiving a diagnosis, and being treated for confirmed tuberculosis. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; XPEL-TB ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03044158.).

Decline in prevalence of tuberculosis following an intensive case finding campaign and the COVID-19 pandemic in an urban Ugandan community.

BACKGROUND: Systematic screening is a potential tool for reducing the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and counteracting COVID-19-related disruptions in care. Repeated community-wide screening can also measure changes in the prevalence of TB over time. METHODS: We conducted serial, cross-sectional TB case finding campaigns in one community in Kampala, Uganda, in 2019 and 2021. Both campaigns sought sputum for TB testing (Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra) from all adolescents and adults. We estimated the prevalence of TB among screening participants in each campaign and compared characteristics of people with TB across campaigns. We simultaneously enrolled and characterised community residents who were diagnosed with TB through routine care and assessed trends in facility-based diagnosis. RESULTS: We successfully screened 12 033 community residents (35% of the estimated adult/adolescent population) in 2019 and 11 595 (33%) in 2021. In 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.77% to 1.13%) of participants tested Xpert positive (including trace). This proportion fell to 0.52% (95% CI: 0.40% to 0.67%) in 2021; the prevalence ratio was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.40 to 0.75)). There was no change in the age (median 26 vs 26), sex (56% vs 59% female) or prevalence of chronic cough (49% vs 54%) among those testing positive. By contrast, the rate of routine facility-based diagnosis remained steady in the 8 months before each campaign (210 (95% CI: 155 to 279) vs 240 (95% CI: 181 to 312) per 100 000 per year). CONCLUSIONS: Following an intensive initial case finding campaign in an urban Ugandan community in 2019, the burden of prevalent TB as measured by systematic screening had decreased by 45% in 2021, despite the intervening COVID-19 pandemic.

Factors Associated With Non-vaccination for Influenza Among Patients With CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Vaccination for influenza is strongly recommended for people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to their immunocompromised state. Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine (non-vaccination) could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake in this high-risk population. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,692 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC) participants. EXPOSURE: Demographic factors, social determinants of health, clinical conditions, and health behaviors. OUTCOME: Influenza non-vaccination, which was assessed based on a receipt of influenza vaccine ascertained during annual clinic visits in a subset of participants who were under nephrology care. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Mixed-effects Poisson models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs). RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2020, the pooled mean vaccine uptake was 72% (mean age, 66 years; 44% female; 44% Black race). In multivariable models, factors significantly associated with influenza non-vaccination were younger age (APR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.85-2.52] for<50 vs≥75 years), Black race (APR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.43-1.75] vs White race), lower education (APR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.04-1.39 for less than high school vs college graduate]), lower annual household income (APR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.49] for <$20,000 vs >$100,000), formerly married status (APR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35] vs currently married), and nonemployed status (APR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.24] vs employed). In contrast, participants with diabetes (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.87] vs no diabetes), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.92] vs no COPD), end-stage kidney disease (APR, 0.64 [0.56 to 0.76] vs estimated glomerular filtration rate≥60mL/min/1.73m2), frailty (APR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-0.99] vs no frailty), and ideal physical activity (APR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.99] vs. physically inactive) were less likely to have non-vaccination status. LIMITATIONS: Possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with CKD receiving nephrology care, younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to have the influenza non-vaccination status. Strategies are needed to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine ("non-vaccination") in people living with kidney disease, who are at risk of influenza and its complications, could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake. In this study, we examined whether demographic factors, social determinants of health, and clinical conditions were linked to the status of not receiving an influenza vaccine among people living with kidney disease and receiving nephrology care. We found that younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to not receive the influenza vaccine. These findings suggest the need for strategies to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination in people living with kidney disease.

Efficacy of Two Evidence-Based Alcohol Consumption Interventions on Positive, Negative, and Neutral Days Among Hazardous Alcohol Users Living with HIV in Vietnam.

Social events and stressful settings can be catalysts for alcohol consumption. Motivational enhancement therapy (MET) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) are widely used in alcohol interventions. We assessed how alcohol consumption varied across three types of days (positive/social, negative/stressful, and neutral) among hazardous alcohol users living with HIV in Vietnam. We further evaluated how those consumption patterns changed after two MET/CBT alcohol reduction interventions versus the standard of care (SOC). The 'combined' intervention offered 6 individual sessions and 3 group sessions; the 'brief' intervention offered 2 individual sessions and 2 phone calls. A 30-day timeline follow-back was administered at study visits, detailing daily drinks and events. Days were categorized as neutral, positive/social, or negative/stressful; negative binomial models and generalized estimating equations were used to estimate drinks consumed by type of day at baseline and 12 months. Prior to intervention, more drinks were consumed on positive/social days (5.2 drinks; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:4.8, 5.7) than negative/stressful (1.5; 95% CI:1.3, 1.9) and neutral days (2.2; 95% CI: 1.9, 2.5). After the brief intervention, drinks consumed decreased on neutral days (ratio: 0.5: 95% CI: 0.4, 0.7). After the combined intervention, drinks consumed decreased on neutral days (ratio: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 0.6), positive/social days (ratio: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5, 0.7) and negative/stressful days (ratio: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.6). No reductions in consumption were observed in the SOC group. Social/positive days had the highest alcohol consumption prior to intervention, and the combined intervention showed the greatest decrease in consumption on those days. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02720237).

Household- Versus Incentive-Based Contact Investigation for Tuberculosis in Rural South Africa: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Household contact investigation for people newly diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) is poorly implemented, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Conditional cash incentives may improve uptake. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic, cluster-randomized, crossover trial of 2 TB contact investigation approaches (household-based and incentive-based) in 28 public primary care clinics in South Africa. Each clinic used 1 approach for 18 months, followed by a 6-month washout period, after which the opposite approach was used. Fourteen clinics were randomized to each approach. In the household-based arm, we conducted TB screening and testing of contacts at the household. In the incentive-based arm, both index patients and ≤10 of their close contacts (either within or outside the household) were given small cash incentives for presenting to study clinics for TB screening. The primary outcome was the number of people with incident TB who were diagnosed and started on treatment at study clinics. RESULTS: From July 2016 to January 2020, we randomized 28 clinics to each study arm, and enrolled 782 index TB patients and 1882 contacts in the household-based arm and 780 index patients and 1940 contacts in the incentive-based arm. A total of 1413 individuals started on TB treatment in the household-based arm and 1510 in the incentive-based arm. The adjusted incidence rate ratio of TB treatment initiation in the incentive- versus household-based arms was 1.05 (95% confidence interval: .97-1.13). CONCLUSIONS: Incentive-based contact investigation for TB has similar effectiveness to traditional household-based approaches and may be a viable alternative or complementary approach to household-based investigation.

Quantifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics Across Global Settings: A Systematic Analysis.

The degree to which individual heterogeneity in the production of secondary cases ("superspreading") affects tuberculosis (TB) transmission has not been systematically studied. We searched for population-based or surveillance studies in which whole genome sequencing was used to estimate TB transmission and in which the size distributions of putative TB transmission clusters were enumerated. We fitted cluster-size-distribution data to a negative binomial branching process model to jointly infer the transmission parameters $R$ (the reproduction number) and the dispersion parameter, $k$, which quantifies the propensity of superspreading in a population (generally, lower values of $k$ ($<1.0$) suggest increased heterogeneity). Of 4,796 citations identified in our initial search, 9 studies from 8 global settings met the inclusion criteria (n = 5 studies of all TB; n = 4 studies of drug-resistant TB). Estimated $R$ values (range, 0.10-0.73) were below 1.0, consistent with declining epidemics in the included settings; estimated $k$ values were well below 1.0 (range, 0.02-0.48), indicating the presence of substantial individual-level heterogeneity in transmission across all settings. We estimated that a minority of cases (range, 2%-31%) drive the majority (80%) of ongoing TB transmission at the population level. Identifying sources of heterogeneity and accounting for them in TB control may have a considerable impact on mitigating TB transmission.

The path to tuberculosis elimination: a renewed vision.

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination and pre-elimination, with thresholds of 1 and 10 incident cases per million population, respectively, were considered achievable for low TB incidence countries in the 1990s, when they were conceived. However, it has since become clear that, even in low TB incidence settings with effective programmes and sufficient resources, achieving pre-elimination in the next decade will require a dramatic acceleration of efforts. In this review, we describe the history of the TB elimination concept and existing country experiences, as well as the interventions available to accelerate the progress towards this threshold. We then propose a framework for near-term progress towards the more aspirational goal of TB pre-elimination. This framework consists of five stages (high incidence, moderate incidence, low incidence, nearing pre-elimination and pre-elimination) that are benchmarked to specific levels of TB incidence in each country. Using this framework, countries can set 5-year targets of achieving certain reductions in TB incidence and/or reaching the next stage, through the use of strategies tailored to both local epidemiology and available organisation and infrastructure. TB elimination remains as an aspirational goal in all stages, but certain activities can be prioritised in the short term to make more rapid progress, ensure local-level buy-in and increase accountability. As TB pre-elimination is approached, certain ethical and social concerns are likely to rise in importance; these concerns are also discussed. Our aim in setting this framework is to guide clinicians, public health experts and decision makers in taking actionable next steps in the trajectory towards TB pre-elimination and elimination.

A user-centred implementation strategy for tuberculosis contact investigation in Uganda: protocol for a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis(TB) is among the leading causes of infectious death worldwide. Contact investigation is an evidence-based, World Health Organisation-endorsed intervention for timely TB diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but has not been widely and effectively implemented. METHODS: We are conducting a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised, hybrid Type III implementation-effectiveness trial comparing a user-centred to a standard strategy for implementing TB contact investigation in 12 healthcare facilities in Uganda. The user-centred strategy consists of several client-focused components including (1) a TB-education booklet, (2) a contact-identification algorithm, (3) an instructional sputum-collection video, and (4) a community-health-rider service to transport clients, CHWs, and sputum samples, along with several healthcare-worker-focused components, including (1) collaborative improvement meetings, (2) regular audit-and-feedback reports, and (3) a digital group-chat application designed to develop a community of practice. Sites will cross-over from the standard to the user-centred strategy in six, eight-week transition steps following a randomly determined site-pairing scheme and timeline. The primary implementation outcome is the proportion of symptomatic close contacts completing TB evaluation within 60 days of TB treatment initiation by the index person with TB. The primary clinical effectiveness outcomes are the proportion of contacts diagnosed with and initiating active TB disease treatment and the proportion initiating TB preventative therapy within 60 days. We will assess outcomes from routine source documents using intention-to-treat analyses. We will also conduct nested mixed-methods studies of implementation fidelity and context and perform cost-effectiveness and impact modelling. The Makerere School of Public Health IRB(#554), the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology(#HS1720ES), and the Yale Institutional Review Board(#2000023199) approved the study and waived informed consent for the main trial implementation-effectiveness outcomes. We will submit results for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminate findings to local policymakers and representatives of affected communities. DISCUSSION: This pragmatic, quasi-experimental implementation trial will inform efforts to find and prevent undiagnosed persons with TB in high-burden settings using contact investigation. It will also help assess the suitability of human-centred design and communities of practice for tailoring implementation strategies and sustaining evidence-based interventions in low-and-middle-income countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered(ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT05640648) on 16 November 2022, after the trial launch on 7 March 2022.

Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities.

BACKGROUND: The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear. METHODS: We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0-50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0-40% reduction), HIV testing (0-50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0-30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports. RESULTS: Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among "optimistic" simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among "pessimistic" simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1-21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020-2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.

Model-based Analysis of Tuberculosis Genotype Clusters in the United States Reveals High Degree of Heterogeneity in Transmission and State-level Differences Across California, Florida, New York, and Texas.

BACKGROUND: Reductions in tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been instrumental in lowering TB incidence in the United States. Sustaining and augmenting these reductions are key public health priorities. METHODS: We fit mechanistic transmission models to distributions of genotype clusters of TB cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2012-2016 in the United States and separately in California, Florida, New York, and Texas. We estimated the mean number of secondary cases generated per infectious case (R0) and individual-level heterogeneity in R0 at state and national levels and assessed how different definitions of clustering affected these estimates. RESULTS: In clusters of genotypically linked TB cases that occurred within a state over a 5-year period (reference scenario), the estimated R0 was 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], .28-.31) in the United States. Transmission was highly heterogeneous; 0.24% of simulated cases with individual R0 >10 generated 19% of all recent secondary transmissions. R0 estimate was 0.16 (95% CI, .15-.17) when a cluster was defined as cases occurring within the same county over a 3-year period. Transmission varied across states: estimated R0s were 0.34 (95% CI, .3-.4) in California, 0.28 (95% CI, .24-.36) in Florida, 0.19 (95% CI, .15-.27) in New York, and 0.38 (95% CI, .33-.46) in Texas. CONCLUSIONS: TB transmission in the United States is characterized by pronounced heterogeneity at the individual and state levels. Improving detection of transmission clusters through incorporation of whole-genome sequencing and identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity will be essential to reducing TB transmission.

Conditional Cash Transfers to Incentivize Tuberculosis Screening: Description of a Novel Strategy for Contact Investigation in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Providing incentives to screen close contacts for tuberculosis (TB) is an alternative to household-based contact investigation. We aimed to characterize patients and contexts where this incentive-based strategy might be preferred. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a cluster randomized trial of TB contact investigation in Limpopo District, South Africa, conducted between 2016 and 2020. Twenty-eight clinics were randomly allocated to household-based vs incentive-based contact investigation. In the incentive-based arm, index participants and contacts received transport reimbursement and incentives for TB screening and microbiological diagnosis of contacts. We estimated differences in mean number of contacts per index participant with household-based vs incentive-based contact investigation overall and within subgroups of index participants. RESULTS: A total of 3776 contacts (1903 in the incentive-based and 1873 in the household-based arm) were referred by 2501 index participants. A higher proportion of contacts in the incentive-based than household-based arm were adults (72% vs 59%), reported chronic TB symptoms (25% vs 16%) or ever smoking (23% vs 11%). Index participants who walked or bicycled to a clinic referred 1.03 more contacts per index (95% confidence interval [CI], .48 to 1.57) through incentive-based than household-based investigation. Index participants living with >5 household members referred 0.48 more contacts per index (95% CI, .03 to .94) through household-based than incentive-based investigation. CONCLUSIONS: Relative to household-based investigation, incentive-based investigation identifies contacts likely at higher risk for active TB. Incentive-based investigation may be more appropriate for index participants who can easily access clinics, versus household-based investigation for patients with large households. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02808507.

The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease.

BACKGROUND: Effective targeting of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment requires identifying those most likely to progress to tuberculosis (TB). We estimated the potential health and economic benefits of diagnostics with improved discrimination for LTBI that will progress to TB. METHODS: A base case scenario represented current LTBI testing and treatment services in the United States in 2020, with diagnosis via. interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Alternative scenarios represented tests with higher positive predictive value (PPV) for future TB but similar price to IGRA, and scenarios that additionally assumed higher treatment initiation and completion. We predicted outcomes using multiple transmission-dynamic models calibrated to different geographic areas and estimated costs from a societal perspective. RESULTS: In 2020, 2.1% (range across model results: 1.1%-3.4%) of individuals with LTBI were predicted to develop TB in their remaining lifetime. For IGRA, we estimated the PPV for future TB as 1.3% (0.6%-1.8%). Relative to IGRA, we estimated a test with 10% PPV would reduce treatment volume by 87% (82%-94%), reduce incremental costs by 30% (15%-52%), and increase quality-adjusted life years by 3% (2%-6%). Cost reductions and health improvements were substantially larger for scenarios in which higher PPV for future TB was associated with greater initiation and completion of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that tests with better predictive performance would substantially reduce the number of individuals treated to prevent TB but would have a modest impact on incremental costs and health impact of TB prevention services, unless accompanied by greater treatment acceptance and completion.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of a Digital Adherence Technology for Tuberculosis Treatment Support in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: Digital adherence technologies like 99DOTS are increasingly considered as an alternative to directly observed therapy for tuberculosis (TB) treatment supervision. We evaluated the cost and cost-effectiveness of 99DOTS in a high-TB-burden setting. METHODS: We assessed the costs of implementing 99DOTS in Uganda through a pragmatic, stepped-wedge randomized trial. We measured costs from the health system perspective at 5 of 18 study facilities. Self-reported service activity time data were used to assess activity-based service costs; other costs were captured from budgets and key informant discussions using standardized forms. We estimated costs and effectiveness considering the 8-month study period ("trial specific") and using a 5-year time horizon ("extended activities"), the latter including a "marginal clinic" expansion scenario that ignored above-site implementation costs. Cost-effectiveness was assessed as cost per patient successfully completing treatment, using Monte Carlo simulation, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, and sensitivity analyses to evaluate uncertainty and robustness of results. RESULTS: The total cost of implementing 99DOTS in the "trial-specific" scenario was $99 554 across 18 clinics (range $3771-$6238 per clinic). The cost per treatment success in the "trial-specific" scenario was $355 (range $229-$394), falling to $59 (range $50-$70) assuming "extended activities," and $49 (range $42-$57) in the "marginal clinic" scenario. The incremental cost-effectiveness of 99DOTS in the "extended-activity" scenario was $355 per incremental treatment success. CONCLUSIONS: Costs and cost-effectiveness of 99DOTS were influenced by the degree to which infrastructure is scaled over time. If sustained and scaled up, 99DOTS can be a cost-effective option for TB treatment adherence support in high-TB-burden settings like Uganda.

A systematic review of cost-utility analyses of screening methods in latent tuberculosis infection in high-risk populations.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends that testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) should be undertaken in high-risk groups using either interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) or a tuberculin skin test (TST). As IGRAs are more expensive than TST, an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs can guide decision makers on the most appropriate choice of test for different high-risk populations. This current review aimed to provide the most up to date evidence on the cost-effectiveness evidence on LTBI testing in high-risk groups-specifically evidence reporting the costs per QALY of different testing strategies. METHODS: A comprehensive search of databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS-EED was undertaken from 2011 up to March 2021. Studies were screened and extracted by two independent reviewers. The study quality was assessed using the Bias in Economic Evaluation Checklist (ECOBIAS). A narrative synthesis of the included studies was undertaken. RESULTS: Thirty-two studies reported in thirty-three documents were included in this review. Quality of included studies was generally high, although there was a weakness across all studies referencing sources correctly and/or justifying choices of parameter values chosen or assumptions where parameter values were not available. Inclusions of IGRAs in testing strategies was consistently found across studies to be cost-effective but this result was sensitive to underlying LTBI prevalence rates. CONCLUSION: While some concerns remain about uncertainty in parameter values used across included studies, the evidence base since 2010 has grown with modelling approaches addressing the weakness pointed out in previous reviews but still reaching the same conclusion that IGRAs are likely to be cost-effective in high-income countries for high-risk populations. Evidence is also required on the cost-effectiveness of different strategies in low to middle income countries and countries with high TB burden.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level. DESIGN: A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated. SETTING: 32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). PATIENTS: Simulated populations in each MSA. INTERVENTION: Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org). LIMITATION: The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented. CONCLUSION: Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.