Neighbourhood contacts and trade movements drive the regional spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV).

To explore the regional spread of endemic pathogens, investigations are required both at within and between population levels. The bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is such a pathogen, spreading among cattle herds mainly due to trade movements and neighbourhood contacts, and causing an endemic disease with economic consequences. To assess the contribution of both transmission routes on BVDV regional and local spread, we developed an original epidemiological model combining data-driven and mechanistic approaches, accounting for heterogeneous within-herd dynamics, animal movements and neighbourhood contacts. Extensive simulations were performed over 9 years in an endemic context in a French region with high cattle density. The most uncertain model parameters were calibrated on summary statistics of epidemiological data, highlighting that neighbourhood contacts and within-herd transmission should be high. We showed that neighbourhood contacts and trade movements complementarily contribute to BVDV spread on a regional scale in endemically infected and densely populated areas, leading to intense fade-out/colonization events: neighbourhood contacts generate the vast majority of outbreaks (72%) but mostly in low immunity herds and correlated to a rather short presence of persistently infected animals (P); trade movements generate fewer infections but could affect herds with higher immunity and generate a prolonged presence of P. Both movements and neighbourhood contacts should be considered when designing control or eradication strategies for densely populated region.

Characteristics of the spatio-temporal network of cattle movements in France over a 5-year period.

A good knowledge of the specificities of the animal trade network is highly valuable to better control pathogen spread on a large regional to transnational scale. Because of their temporal dynamical nature, studying multi-annual datasets is particularly needed to investigate whether structural patterns are stable over the years. In this study, we analysed the French cattle movement network from 2005 to 2009 for different spatial granularities and temporal windows, with the three-fold objective of exploring temporal variations of the main network characteristics, computing proxies for pathogen spread on this network, which accounts for its time-varying properties and identifying specificities related to the main types of animals and farms (dairy versus beef). Network properties did not qualitatively vary among different temporal and spatial granularities. About 40% of the holdings and 80% of the communes were directly interconnected. The width of the aggregation time window barely impacted normalised distributions of indicators. A period of 8-16 weeks would suffice for robust estimation of their main trends, whereas longer periods would provide more details on tails. The dynamic nature of the network could be seen through the small overlap between consecutive networks with 65% of common active nodes for only 3% of common links over 2005-2009. To control pathogen spread on such a network, by reducing the largest strongly connected component by more than 80%, movements should be prevented from 1 to 5% of the holdings with the highest centrality in the previous year network. The analysis of breed-wise and herd-wise subnetworks, dairy, beef and mixed, reveals similar trends in temporal variation of average indicators and their distributions. The link-based backbones of beef subnetworks seem to be more stable over time than those of other subnetworks. At a regional scale, node reachability accounting for time-respecting paths, as proxy of epidemic burden, is greater for a dairy region than for a beef region. This highlights the importance of considering local specificities and temporal dynamics of animal trade networks when evaluating control measures of pathogen spread.