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1.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 381(2257): 20230133, 2023 Oct 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37611625

RESUMEN

This rapid systematic review of evidence asks whether (i) wearing a face mask, (ii) one type of mask over another and (iii) mandatory mask policies can reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, either in community-based or healthcare settings. A search of studies published 1 January 2020-27 January 2023 yielded 5185 unique records. Due to a paucity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), observational studies were included in the analysis. We analysed 35 studies in community settings (three RCTs and 32 observational) and 40 in healthcare settings (one RCT and 39 observational). Ninety-five per cent of studies included were conducted before highly transmissible Omicron variants emerged. Ninety-one per cent of observational studies were at 'critical' risk of bias (ROB) in at least one domain, often failing to separate the effects of masks from concurrent interventions. More studies found that masks (n = 39/47; 83%) and mask mandates (n = 16/18; 89%) reduced infection than found no effect (n = 8/65; 12%) or favoured controls (n = 1/65; 2%). Seven observational studies found that respirators were more protective than surgical masks, while five found no statistically significant difference between the two mask types. Despite the ROB, and allowing for uncertain and variable efficacy, we conclude that wearing masks, wearing higher quality masks (respirators), and mask mandates generally reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in these study populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , Máscaras , Políticas
2.
PLoS Med ; 19(11): e1004132, 2022 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36356041

RESUMEN

Dr Amitabh Suthar and Dr Christopher Dye give their perspective on infection, immunity and surveillance of COVID-19.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 127, 2022 Feb 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35123418

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The city of Manaus, north Brazil, was stricken by a second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 despite high seroprevalence estimates, coinciding with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant. Reinfections were postulated as a partial explanation for the second surge. However, accurate calculation of reinfection rates is difficult when stringent criteria as two time-separated RT-PCR tests and/or genome sequencing are required. To estimate the proportion of reinfections caused by Gamma during the second wave in Manaus and the protection conferred by previous infection, we identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody boosting in repeat blood donors as a mean to infer reinfection. METHODS: We tested serial blood samples from unvaccinated repeat blood donors in Manaus for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using two assays that display waning in early convalescence, enabling the detection of reinfection-induced boosting. Donors were required to have three or more donations, being at least one during each epidemic wave. We propose a strict serological definition of reinfection (reactivity boosting following waning like a V-shaped curve in both assays or three spaced boostings), probable (two separate boosting events) and possible (reinfection detected by only one assay) reinfections. The serial samples were used to divide donors into six groups defined based on the inferred sequence of infection and reinfection with non-Gamma and Gamma variants. RESULTS: From 3655 repeat blood donors, 238 met all inclusion criteria, and 223 had enough residual sample volume to perform both serological assays. We found 13.6% (95% CI 7.0-24.5%) of all presumed Gamma infections that were observed in 2021 were reinfections. If we also include cases of probable or possible reinfections, these percentages increase respectively to 22.7% (95% CI 14.3-34.2%) and 39.3% (95% CI 29.5-50.0%). Previous infection conferred a protection against reinfection of 85.3% (95% CI 71.3-92.7%), decreasing to respectively 72.5% (95% CI 54.7-83.6%) and 39.5% (95% CI 14.1-57.8%) if probable and possible reinfections are included. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfection by Gamma is common and may play a significant role in epidemics where Gamma is prevalent, highlighting the continued threat variants of concern pose even to settings previously hit by substantial epidemics.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Donantes de Sangre , Brasil/epidemiología , Humanos , Reinfección , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos
4.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 25(2): 249-255, 2019 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30500321

RESUMEN

Ebola virus (EBOV) can persist in immunologically protected body sites in survivors of Ebola virus disease, creating the potential to initiate new chains of transmission. From the outbreak in West Africa during 2014-2016, we identified 13 possible events of viral persistence-derived transmission of EBOV (VPDTe) and applied predefined criteria to classify transmission events based on the strength of evidence for VPDTe and source and route of transmission. For 8 events, a recipient case was identified; possible source cases were identified for 5 of these 8. For 5 events, a recipient case or chain of transmission could not be confidently determined. Five events met our criteria for sexual transmission (male-to-female). One VPDTe event led to at least 4 generations of cases; transmission was limited after the other events. VPDTe has increased the importance of Ebola survivor services and sustained surveillance and response capacity in regions with previously widespread transmission.


Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades , Ebolavirus , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Sobrevivientes , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental/epidemiología , Ebolavirus/clasificación , Ebolavirus/genética , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Adulto Joven
5.
Bull World Health Organ ; 97(6): 405-414, 2019 Jun 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31210678

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To investigate which of the World Health Organization recommended methods for tuberculosis control have had the greatest effect on case incidence in 12 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region that carry high burdens of tuberculosis linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: We obtained epidemiological surveillance, survey and treatment data on HIV and tuberculosis for the years 2003 to 2016. We used statistical models to examine the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy in reducing the incidence of tuberculosis among people living with HIV. We also investigated the role of tuberculosis case detection and treatment in preventing Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and consequently reducing tuberculosis incidence. FINDINGS: Between 2003 and 2016, ART provision was associated with the decline of tuberculosis in each country, and with differences in tuberculosis decline between countries. Inferring that ART was a cause of tuberculosis decline, ART prevented 1.88 million (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.65 to 2.11) tuberculosis cases in people living with HIV, or 15.7% (95% CI: 13.8 to 17.6) of the 11.96 million HIV-positive tuberculosis cases expected. Population coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy was too low (average 1.0% of persons eligible) to have a major effect on tuberculosis decline, and improvements in tuberculosis detection and treatment were either weakly associated or not significantly associated with tuberculosis decline. CONCLUSION: ART provision is associated with tuberculosis decline in these 12 countries. ART should remain central to tuberculosis control where rates of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection are high, but renewed efforts to treat tuberculosis are needed.


Asunto(s)
Antirretrovirales/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/prevención & control , África/epidemiología , Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Isoniazida/uso terapéutico , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Estudios Retrospectivos , Tuberculosis/tratamiento farmacológico , Organización Mundial de la Salud
6.
Lancet ; 390(10108): 2211-2214, 2017 Nov 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28577861

RESUMEN

Diagnostics are crucial in mitigating the effect of disease outbreaks. Because diagnostic development and validation are time consuming, they should be carried out in anticipation of epidemics rather than in response to them. The diagnostic response to the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, although ultimately effective, was slow and expensive. If a focused mechanism had existed with the technical and financial resources to drive its development ahead of the outbreak, point-of-care Ebola tests supporting a less costly and more mobile response could have been available early on in the diagnosis process. A new partnering model could drive rapid development of tests and surveillance strategies for novel pathogens that emerge in future outbreaks. We look at lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak and propose specific solutions to improve the speed of new assay development and ensure their effective deployment.


Asunto(s)
Defensa Civil/organización & administración , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Erradicación de la Enfermedad/métodos , Femenino , Salud Global , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/terapia , Humanos , Masculino , Pruebas en el Punto de Atención , Desarrollo de Programa , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de Salud , Organización Mundial de la Salud
7.
Bull World Health Organ ; 96(2): 110-121E, 2018 Feb 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29403114

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To respond to the World Health Assembly call for dissemination of lessons learnt from countries that have begun implementing the International Health Regulations, 2005 revision; IHR (2005). METHODS: In November 2015, we conducted a systematic search of the following online databases and sources: PubMed®, Embase®, Global Health, Scopus, World Health Organization (WHO) Global Index Medicus, WHO Bulletin on IHR Implementation and the International Society for Disease Surveillance. We included identified studies and reports summarizing national experience in implementing any of the IHR (2005) core capacities or their components. We excluded studies that were theoretical or referred to IHR (1969). Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative synthesis. FINDINGS: We analysed 51 articles from 77 countries representing all WHO Regions. The meta-syntheses identified a total of 44 lessons learnt across the eight core capacities of IHR (2005). Major themes included the need to mobilize and sustain political commitment; to adapt global requirements based on local sociocultural, epidemiological, health system and economic contexts; and to conduct baseline and follow-up assessments to monitor the status of IHR (2005) implementation. CONCLUSION: Although experiences of IHR (2005) implementation covered a wide global range, more documentation from Africa and Eastern Europe is needed. We did not find specific areas of weakness in monitoring IHR (2005); sustained monitoring of all core capacities is required to ensure effective systems. These lessons learnt could be adapted by countries in the process of meeting IHR (2005) requirements.


Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Salud Global , Cooperación Internacional/legislación & jurisprudencia , Salud Pública/legislación & jurisprudencia , Vigilancia de Guardia , Control Social Formal , Organización Mundial de la Salud
9.
N Engl J Med ; 371(22): 2083-91, 2014 Nov 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25317743

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The seventh reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the equatorial African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began on July 26, 2014, as another large EVD epidemic continued to spread in West Africa. Simultaneous reports of EVD in equatorial and West Africa raised the question of whether the two outbreaks were linked. METHODS: We obtained data from patients in the DRC, using the standard World Health Organization clinical-investigation form for viral hemorrhagic fevers. Patients were classified as having suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD or a non-EVD illness. Blood samples were obtained for polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnosis, viral isolation, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: The outbreak began in Inkanamongo village in the vicinity of Boende town in Équateur province and has been confined to that province. A total of 69 suspected, probable, or confirmed cases were reported between July 26 and October 7, 2014, including 8 cases among health care workers, with 49 deaths. As of October 7, there have been approximately six generations of cases of EVD since the outbreak began. The reported weekly case incidence peaked in the weeks of August 17 and 24 and has since fallen sharply. Genome sequencing revealed Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire species) as the cause of this outbreak. A coding-complete genome sequence of EBOV that was isolated during this outbreak showed 99.2% identity with the most closely related variant from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit in the DRC and 96.8% identity to EBOV variants that are currently circulating in West Africa. CONCLUSIONS: The current EVD outbreak in the DRC has clinical and epidemiologic characteristics that are similar to those of previous EVD outbreaks in equatorial Africa. The causal agent is a local EBOV variant, and this outbreak has a zoonotic origin different from that in the 2014 epidemic in West Africa. (Funded by the Centre International de Recherches Médicales de Franceville and others.).


Asunto(s)
Ebolavirus/genética , Epidemias , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental/epidemiología , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Femenino , Geografía Médica , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/complicaciones , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Filogenia
10.
N Engl J Med ; 371(16): 1481-95, 2014 10 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25244186

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental/epidemiología , Niño , Ebolavirus , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Humanos , Incidencia , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades Infecciosas , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Adulto Joven
11.
Clin Infect Dis ; 62 Suppl 3: S262-7, 2016 05 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27118856

RESUMEN

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and tuberculosis disease, but also play a crucial role in implementing healthcare. Preexposure tuberculosis vaccination, including revaccination with BCG, might benefit Mtb-uninfected HCWs, but most HCWs in tuberculosis-endemic countries are already sensitized to mycobacteria. A new postexposure tuberculosis vaccine offers greatest potential for protection, in the setting of repeated occupational Mtb exposure. Novel strategies for induction of mycobacteria-specific resident memory T cells in the lung by aerosol administration, or induction of T cells with inherent propensity for residing in mucosal sites, such as CD1-restricted T cells and mucosa-associated innate T cells, should be explored. The need for improved protection of HCWs against tuberculosis disease is clear. However, health systems in tuberculosis-endemic countries would need significantly improved occupational health structures to implement a screening and vaccination strategy for HCWs.


Asunto(s)
Vacuna BCG , Personal de Salud , Enfermedades Profesionales , Vacunas contra la Tuberculosis , Tuberculosis , Humanos , Enfermedades Profesionales/inmunología , Enfermedades Profesionales/prevención & control , Exposición Profesional , Sudáfrica , Tuberculosis/inmunología , Tuberculosis/prevención & control
12.
PLoS Med ; 13(11): e1002170, 2016 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27846234

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.


Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades , Ebolavirus/fisiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Guinea/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Liberia/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Sierra Leona/epidemiología
13.
Bull World Health Organ ; 94(9): 675-686C, 2016 Sep 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27708473

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal and geographical distribution of Zika virus infection and associated neurological disorders, from 1947 to 1 February 2016, when Zika became a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). METHODS: We did a literature search using the terms "Zika" and "ZIKV" in PubMed, cross-checked the findings for completeness against other published reviews and added formal notifications to WHO submitted under the International Health Regulations. FINDINGS: From the discovery of Zika virus in Uganda in 1947 to the declaration of a PHEIC by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 1 February 2016, a total of 74 countries and territories had reported human Zika virus infections. The timeline in this paper charts the discovery of the virus (1947), its isolation from mosquitos (1948), the first human infection (1952), the initial spread of infection from Asia to a Pacific island (2007), the first known instance of sexual transmission (2008), reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome (2014) and microcephaly (2015) linked to Zika infections and the first appearance of Zika in the Americas (from 2015). CONCLUSION: Zika virus infection in humans appears to have changed in character as its geographical range has expanded from equatorial Africa and Asia. The change is from an endemic, mosquito-borne infection causing mild illness to one that can cause large outbreaks linked with neurological sequelae and congenital abnormalities.


Asunto(s)
Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/transmisión , Virus Zika/patogenicidad , Aedes/virología , África/epidemiología , Animales , Asia/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Geografía , Salud Global , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Macaca mulatta/virología , Microcefalia/virología , Infección por el Virus Zika/historia , Infección por el Virus Zika/fisiopatología
14.
Nat Rev Immunol ; 5(10): 819-26, 2005 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16200083

RESUMEN

Without HIV, the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic would now be in decline almost everywhere. However, instead of looking forward to the demise of TB, countries that are badly affected by HIV are struggling against a rising tide of HIV-infected patients with TB. As a consequence, global TB control policies have had to be revised and control of TB now demands increased investment. This paper assesses what is being done to address the issue and what remains to be done.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/prevención & control , Adolescente , Adulto , Animales , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Tuberculosis/complicaciones
15.
PLoS Med ; 12(6): e1001843; discussion e1001843, 2015 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26103620

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The "fitness" of an infectious pathogen is defined as the ability of the pathogen to survive, reproduce, be transmitted, and cause disease. The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) relative to drug-susceptible tuberculosis is cited as one of the most important determinants of MDRTB spread and epidemic size. To estimate the relative fitness of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases, we compared the incidence of tuberculosis disease among the household contacts of MDRTB index patients to that among the contacts of drug-susceptible index patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This 3-y (2010-2013) prospective cohort household follow-up study in South Lima and Callao, Peru, measured the incidence of tuberculosis disease among 1,055 household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases and 2,362 household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index cases. A total of 35/1,055 (3.3%) household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases developed tuberculosis disease, while 114/2,362 (4.8%) household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index patients developed tuberculosis disease. The total follow-up time for drug-susceptible tuberculosis contacts was 2,620 person-years, while the total follow-up time for MDRTB contacts was 1,425 person-years. Using multivariate Cox regression to adjust for confounding variables including contact HIV status, contact age, socio-economic status, and index case sputum smear grade, the hazard ratio for tuberculosis disease among MDRTB household contacts was found to be half that for drug-susceptible contacts (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.90, p = 0.017). The inference of transmission in this study was limited by the lack of genotyping data for household contacts. Capturing incident disease only among household contacts may also limit the extrapolation of these findings to the community setting. CONCLUSIONS: The low relative fitness of MDRTB estimated by this study improves the chances of controlling drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, fitter multidrug-resistant strains that emerge over time may make this increasingly difficult.


Asunto(s)
Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , Composición Familiar , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/transmisión , Tuberculosis/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis/transmisión , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Perú/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/epidemiología
17.
Bull World Health Organ ; 93(4): 237-248A, 2015 Apr 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26229188

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To investigate funding for the Global Drug Facility since 2001 and to analyse the facility's influence on the price of high-quality tuberculosis drugs. METHODS: Data on the price of tuberculosis drugs were obtained from the Global Drug Facility for 2001 to 2012 and, for the private sector in 15 countries, from IMS Health for 2002 to 2012. Data on funding of the facility were also collected. FINDINGS: Quality-assured tuberculosis drugs supplied by the Global Drug Facility were generally priced lower than drugs purchased in the private sector. In 2012, just three manufacturers accounted for 29.9 million United Stated dollars (US$) of US$ 44.5 million by value of first-line drugs supplied. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria provided 73% (US$ 32.5 million of US$ 44.5 million) and 89% (US$ 57.8 million of US $65.2 million) of funds for first- and second-line drugs, respectively. Between 2010 and 2012, the facility's market share of second-line tuberculosis drugs increased from 26.1% to 42.9%, while prices decreased by as much as 24% (from US$ 1231 to US$ 939). Conversely, the facility's market share of first-line drugs fell from 37.2% to 19.2% during this time, while prices increased from US$ 9.53 to US$ 10.2. CONCLUSION: The price of tuberculosis drugs supplied through the facility was generally less than that on the private market. However, to realize its full potential and meet the needs of more tuberculosis patients, the facility requires more diverse and stable public funding and greater flexibility to participate in the private market.


Asunto(s)
Antituberculosos , Costos de los Medicamentos , Tuberculosis/tratamiento farmacológico , Antituberculosos/economía , Antituberculosos/provisión & distribución , Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , Comercio , Costos y Análisis de Costo , Países en Desarrollo , Costos de los Medicamentos/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Salud Global , Humanos , Masculino , Sector Privado
18.
Bull World Health Organ ; 93(11): 790-8, 2015 Nov 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26549907

RESUMEN

It is unclear if current programmes in China can achieve the post-2015 global targets for tuberculosis - 50% reduction in incidence and a 75% reduction in mortality by 2025. Chinese policy-makers need to maintain the recent decline in the prevalence of tuberculosis, while revising control policies to cope with an epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis and the effects of ongoing health reform. Health reforms are expected to shift patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals. We developed a mathematical model of tuberculosis control in China to help set appropriate targets and prioritize interventions that might be implemented in the next 10 years. This model indicates that, even under the most optimistic scenario - improved treatment in tuberculosis dispensaries, introduction of a new effective regimen for the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis and optimal care of cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis - the current global targets for tuberculosis are unlikely to be reached. However, reductions in the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis should be feasible. We conclude that a shift of patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals is likely to hamper efforts at tuberculosis control if cure rates in the designated hospitals cannot be maintained at a high level. Our results can inform the planning of tuberculosis control in China.


Il est difficile de savoir si les programmes actuellement menés en Chine permettront d'atteindre les objectifs mondiaux pour l'après-2015 concernant la tuberculose, qui consistent à réduire l'incidence de 50% et la mortalité de 75% d'ici à 2025. Les dirigeants chinois doivent confirmer le récent déclin de la prévalence de la tuberculose, mais aussi revoir les politiques de lutte pour faire face à une épidémie de tuberculose pharmacorésistante et les effets de l'actuelle réforme de la santé. La réforme de la santé est censée prévoir le transfert des patients traités dans des dispensaires antituberculeux vers des hôpitaux expressément désignés. Nous avons élaboré un modèle mathématique de lutte contre la tuberculose en Chine qui aide à définir les objectifs appropriés et à hiérarchiser les interventions qui pourraient être réalisées au cours des dix prochaines années. Ce modèle indique que même dans le scénario le plus optimiste ­ amélioration du traitement dans les dispensaires antituberculeux, introduction d'un nouveau schéma thérapeutique efficace pour le traitement de la tuberculose sensible et traitement optimal des cas de tuberculose multirésistante ­, il paraît difficile d'atteindre les objectifs mondiaux actuels pour la tuberculose. Néanmoins, il devrait être possible de réduire l'incidence de la tuberculose multirésistante. Nous en concluons que le transfert des patients traités dans des dispensaires antituberculeux vers des hôpitaux expressément désignés est susceptible d'entraver les efforts de lutte contre la tuberculose s'il est impossible de maintenir des taux de guérison élevés dans ces hôpitaux. Nos résultats peuvent servir de base à la planification de la lutte contre la tuberculose en Chine.


No está claro si los programas actuales en China pueden alcanzar los objetivos globales para la tuberculosis después de 2015, una reducción del 50% de la incidencia y una reducción del 75% de la mortalidad de aquí a 2025. Los responsables políticos de China necesitan mantener el reciente descenso en la prevalencia de la tuberculosis, al mismo tiempo que revisan las políticas de control para hacer frente a una epidemia de tuberculosis farmacorresistente y los efectos en la reforma sanitaria en curso. Se espera que las reformas sanitarias trasladen los pacientes de los dispensarios para tuberculosis a los hospitales designados. Se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático de control de la tuberculosis en China para ayudar a establecer los objetivos apropiados y priorizar las intervenciones que podrían implementarse en los próximos diez años. Este modelo indica que, incluso en el escenario más optimista (una mejora del tratamiento en los dispensarios para tuberculosis, la introducción de un nuevo y efectivo régimen para el tratamiento de la tuberculosis farmacosensible y la atención óptima en casos de la tuberculosis farmacorresistente), es muy poco probable que se cumplan los objetivos actuales globales para la tuberculosis. Sin embargo, las reducciones en la incidencia de la tuberculosis farmacorresistente deberían ser factibles. Se concluye que es posible que un cambio de los pacientes de los dispensarios para tuberculosis a los hospitales designados obstaculice los esfuerzos de un control para la tuberculosis si las tasas de cura en los hospitales designados no pueden mantenerse en un nivel alto. Nuestros resultados pueden dar información sobre la planificación del control de la tuberculosis en China.


Asunto(s)
Reforma de la Atención de Salud , Política de Salud , Tuberculosis/prevención & control , Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , China/epidemiología , Prioridades en Salud , Hospitales Públicos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Administración en Salud Pública , Tuberculosis/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/epidemiología
19.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 64(18): 500-4, 2015 May 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25974635

RESUMEN

As one of the three West African countries highly affected by the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic, Liberia reported approximately 10,000 cases. The Ebola epidemic in Liberia was marked by intense urban transmission, multiple community outbreaks with source cases occurring in patients coming from the urban areas, and outbreaks in health care facilities (HCFs). This report, based on data from routine case investigations and contact tracing, describes efforts to stop the last known chain of Ebola transmission in Liberia. The index patient became ill on December 29, 2014, and the last of 21 associated cases was in a patient admitted into an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) on February 18, 2015. The chain of transmission was stopped because of early detection of new cases; identification, monitoring, and support of contacts in acceptable settings; effective triage within the health care system; and rapid isolation of symptomatic contacts. In addition, a "sector" approach, which divided Montserrado County into geographic units, facilitated the ability of response teams to rapidly respond to community needs. In the final stages of the outbreak, intensive coordination among partners and engagement of community leaders were needed to stop transmission in densely populated Montserrado County. A companion report describes the efforts to enhance infection prevention and control efforts in HCFs. After February 19, no additional clusters of Ebola cases have been detected in Liberia. On May 9, the World Health Organization declared the end of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias/prevención & control , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Análisis por Conglomerados , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Humanos , Liberia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven
20.
Lancet ; 382(9901): 1373-9, 2013 Oct 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23726162

RESUMEN

Universal access to high-quality treatment is central to the Global Plan to Stop TB. The Global Drug Facility (GDF) was launched in 2001 to help to achieve this goal, through services including the supply of affordable, quality-assured drugs to countries in need. We assess the scale of GDF drug supplies worldwide and find that the GDF commands a substantial proportion of the market for drugs for first-line and second-line treatment regimens, having supplied, for example, first-line drugs for roughly 35% of cases reported worldwide in 2011. Significant potential remains for GDF expansion, especially in the provision of second-line drugs, which would be aided by future increases in case detection.


Asunto(s)
Antituberculosos/provisión & distribución , Salud Global , Cooperación Internacional , Tuberculosis/prevención & control , Antituberculosos/economía , Planificación en Salud , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Comercialización de los Servicios de Salud/economía , Comercialización de los Servicios de Salud/organización & administración , Tuberculosis/economía
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