A prediction model for response to immune checkpoint inhibition in advanced melanoma.

Predicting who will benefit from treatment with immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with advanced melanoma is challenging. We developed a multivariable prediction model for response to ICI, using routinely available clinical data including primary melanoma characteristics. We used a population-based cohort of 3525 patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-PD-1-based therapy. Our prediction model for predicting response within 6 months after ICI initiation was internally validated with bootstrap resampling. Performance evaluation included calibration, discrimination and internal-external cross-validation. Included patients received anti-PD-1 monotherapy (n = 2366) or ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1159) in any treatment line. The model included serum lactate dehydrogenase, World Health Organization performance score, type and line of ICI, disease stage and time to first distant recurrence-all at start of ICI-, and location and type of primary melanoma, the presence of satellites and/or in-transit metastases at primary diagnosis and sex. The over-optimism adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.66). The range of predicted response probabilities was 7%-81%. Based on these probabilities, patients were categorized into quartiles. Compared to the lowest response quartile, patients in the highest quartile had a significantly longer median progression-free survival (20.0 vs 2.8 months; P < .001) and median overall survival (62.0 vs 8.0 months; P < .001). Our prediction model, based on routinely available clinical variables and primary melanoma characteristics, predicts response to ICI in patients with advanced melanoma and discriminates well between treated patients with a very good and very poor prognosis.

Dynamic Prediction of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colonoscopic surveillance is recommended in patients with colonic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) given their increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to develop and validate a dynamic prediction model for the occurrence of advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, including high-grade dysplasia and CRC) in IBD. METHODS: We pooled data from 6 existing cohort studies from Canada, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Patients with IBD and an indication for CRC surveillance were included if they underwent at least 1 follow-up procedure. Exclusion criteria included prior aCRN, prior colectomy, or an unclear indication for surveillance. Predictor variables were selected based on the literature. A dynamic prediction model was developed using a landmarking approach based on Cox proportional hazard modeling. Model performance was assessed with Harrell's concordance-statistic (discrimination) and by calibration curves. Generalizability across surveillance cohorts was evaluated by internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: The surveillance cohorts comprised 3731 patients, enrolled and followed-up in the time period from 1973 to 2021, with a median follow-up period of 5.7 years (26,336 patient-years of follow-up evaluation); 146 individuals were diagnosed with aCRN. The model contained 8 predictors, with a cross-validation median concordance statistic of 0.74 and 0.75 for a 5- and 10-year prediction window, respectively. Calibration plots showed good calibration. Internal-external cross-validation results showed medium discrimination and reasonable to good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The new prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, however, generalizability results varied. Future research should focus on formal external validation and relate predicted aCRN risks to surveillance intervals before clinical application.

Oncologic outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown whether the outcomes and risk models for T1 CRC based on non-screen-detected patients can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aimed to compare the stage distribution and oncologic outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program. METHODS: Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze differences in the time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated across the groups. RESULTS: 1803 patients were included (1114 [62%] screen-detected), with median follow-up of 51 months (interquartile range 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs. 8.9%; odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI 0.89-2.23); a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. The 3- and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, overall survival was significantly longer in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.38-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncologic outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in longer overall survival.

Effect of optical diagnosis training on recognition and treatment of submucosal invasive colorectal cancer in community hospitals: a prospective multicenter intervention study.

BACKGROUND: Recognition of submucosal invasive colorectal cancer (T1 CRC) is difficult, with sensitivities of 35 %-60 % in Western countries. We evaluated the real-life effects of training in the OPTICAL model, a recently developed structured and validated prediction model, in Dutch community hospitals. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter study (OPTICAL II), 383 endoscopists from 40 hospitals were invited to follow an e-learning program on the OPTICAL model, to increase sensitivity in detecting T1 CRC in nonpedunculated polyps. Real-life recognition of T1 CRC was then evaluated in 25 hospitals. Endoscopic and pathologic reports of T1 CRCs detected during the next year were collected retrospectively, with endoscopists unaware of this evaluation. Sensitivity for T1 CRC recognition, R0 resection rate, and treatment modality were compared for trained vs. untrained endoscopists. RESULTS: 1 year after e-learning, 528 nonpedunculated T1 CRCs were recorded for endoscopies performed by 251 endoscopists (118 [47 %] trained). Median T1 CRC size was 20 mm. Lesions were mainly located in the distal colorectum (66 %). Trained endoscopists recognized T1 CRCs more frequently than untrained endoscopists (sensitivity 74 % vs. 62 %; mixed model analysis odds ratio [OR] 2.90, 95 %CI 1.54-5.45). R0 resection rate was higher for T1 CRCs detected by trained endoscopists (69 % vs. 56 %; OR 1.73, 95 %CI 1.03-2.91). CONCLUSION: Training in optical recognition of T1 CRCs in community hospitals was associated with increased recognition of T1 CRCs, leading to higher en bloc and R0 resection rates. This may be an important step toward more organ-preserving strategies.

Time-varying prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer: A population-based study and meta-analysis.

We studied the prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer over time and across treatment lines. Population data on synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database. Pubmed, EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched for prospective studies on metastatic colorectal cancer to conduct a meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria consisted of metastatic disease, systemic treatment with palliative intent and specification of primary tumor location. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. For the population-based data, multivariable Cox models were constructed. The Grambsch-Therneau test was conducted to evaluate the potential time-varying nature of sidedness. Meta-regression incorporating treatment-line as variable was conducted to test the pre-specified hypothesis that the prognostic value of sidedness varies over time. Analysis of 12 885 and 16 160 synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients registered in the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database, respectively, indicated a time-varying prognostic value of sidedness (P < .01). Thirty-one studies were selected for the meta-analysis (9558 patients for overall survival analysis). Pooled univariable hazard ratioleft-sided/right-sided for overall survival was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76) in 1st-line, 0.76 (0.54-1.06) in 2nd-line and 1.01 (0.86-1.19) in 3rd-line studies. Hazard ratios were significantly influenced by treatment line (P = .035). The prognostic value of sidedness of the primary tumor in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with palliative systemic therapy decreases over time since diagnosis, suggesting that sidedness may not be a useful stratification factor in late-line trials. This decrease in prognostic value should be taken into account when providing prognostic information to patients.

Time interval from primary melanoma to first distant recurrence in relation to patient outcomes in advanced melanoma.

Since the introduction of BRAF(/MEK) inhibition and immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI), the prognosis of advanced melanoma has greatly improved. Melanoma is known for its remarkably long time to first distant recurrence (TFDR), which can be decades in some patients and is partly attributed to immune-surveillance. We investigated the relationship between TFDR and patient outcomes after systemic treatment for advanced melanoma. We selected patients undergoing first-line systemic therapy for advanced melanoma from the nationwide Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. The association between TFDR and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression models. The TFDR was modeled categorically, linearly, and flexibly using restricted cubic splines. Patients received anti-PD-1-based treatment (n = 1844) or BRAF(/MEK) inhibition (n = 1618). For ICI-treated patients with a TFDR <2 years, median OS was 25.0 months, compared to 37.3 months for a TFDR >5 years (P = .014). Patients treated with BRAF(/MEK) inhibition with a longer TFDR also had a significantly longer median OS (8.6 months for TFDR <2 years compared to 11.1 months for >5 years, P = .004). The hazard of dying rapidly decreased with increasing TFDR until approximately 5 years (HR 0.87), after which the hazard of dying further decreased with increasing TFDR, but less strongly (HR 0.82 for a TFDR of 10 years and HR 0.79 for a TFDR of 15 years). Results were similar when stratifying for type of treatment. Advanced melanoma patients with longer TFDR have a prolonged PFS and OS, irrespective of being treated with first-line ICI or targeted therapy.

Comparison between de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer: the presence of a primary tumour is not the only difference-a Dutch population-based study from 2008 to 2018.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare characteristics and survival of patients with de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer. METHODS: Data of patients with metastatic breast cancer were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients were categorized as having de novo metastatic breast cancer (n = 8656) if they had distant metastases at initial presentation, or metachronous metastatic disease (n = 2374) in case they developed metastases within 5 or 10 years after initial breast cancer diagnosis. Clinicopathological characteristics and treatments of these two groups were compared, after which multiple imputation was performed to account for missing data. Overall survival was compared for patients treated with systemic therapy in the metastatic setting, using Kaplan Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The hazard ratio for overall survival of de novo versus metachronous metastases was assessed accounting for time-varying effects. RESULTS: Compared to metachronous patients, patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer were more likely to be ≥ 70 years, to have invasive lobular carcinoma, clinical T3 or T4 tumours, loco-regional lymph node metastases, HER2 positivity, bone only disease and to have received systemic therapy in the metastatic setting. They were less likely to have triple negative tumours and liver or brain metastases. Patients with de novo metastases survived longer (median 34.7 months) than patients with metachronous metastases (median 24.3 months) and the hazard ratio (0.75) varied over time. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in clinicopathological characteristics and survival between de novo and metachronous metastatic breast cancer highlight that these are distinct patients groups.

Long-term Survival in Breast Cancer Patients Is Associated with Contralateral Parenchymal Enhancement at MRI: Outcomes of the SELECT Study.

Background Several single-center studies found that high contralateral parenchymal enhancement (CPE) at breast MRI was associated with improved long-term survival in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer. Due to varying sample sizes, population characteristics, and follow-up times, consensus of the association is currently lacking. Purpose To confirm whether CPE is associated with long-term survival in a large multicenter retrospective cohort, and to investigate if CPE is associated with endocrine therapy effectiveness. Materials and Methods This multicenter observational cohort included women with unilateral ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancer (tumor size ≤50 mm and ≤three positive lymph nodes) who underwent MRI from January 2005 to December 2010. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and distant RFS (DRFS) were assessed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to investigate differences in absolute risk after 10 years, stratified according to CPE tertile. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to investigate whether CPE was associated with prognosis and endocrine therapy effectiveness. Results Overall, 1432 women (median age, 54 years [IQR, 47-63 years]) were included from 10 centers. Differences in absolute OS after 10 years were stratified according to CPE tertile as follows: 88.5% (95% CI: 88.1, 89.1) in tertile 1, 85.8% (95% CI: 85.2, 86.3) in tertile 2, and 85.9% (95% CI: 85.4, 86.4) in tertile 3. CPE was independently associated with OS, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.36; P = .047), but was not associated with RFS (HR, 1.11; P = .16) or DRFS (HR, 1.11; P = .19). The effect of endocrine therapy on survival could not be accurately assessed; therefore, the association between endocrine therapy efficacy and CPE could not reliably be estimated. Conclusion High contralateral parenchymal enhancement was associated with a marginally decreased overall survival in patients with estrogen receptor-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer, but was not associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) or distant RFS. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Honda and Iima in this issue.

Predicting early extrahepatic recurrence after local treatment of colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Patients who develop early extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) may not benefit from local treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs using a national data set. METHODS: A Cox regression prediction model for EHR was developed and validated internally using data on patients who had local treatment for CRLMs with curative intent. Performance assessment included calibration, discrimination, net benefit, and generalizability by internal-external cross-validation. The prognostic relevance of early EHR (within 6 months) was evaluated by landmark analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 35 months, 557 of the 1077 patients had EHR and 249 died. Median overall survival was 19.5 (95 per cent c.i. 15.6 to 23.0) months in patients with early EHR after CRLM treatment, compared with not reached (45.3 months to not reached) in patients without an early EHR. The EHR prediction model included side and stage of the primary tumour, RAS/BRAFV600E mutational status, and number and size of CRLMs. The range of 6-month EHR predictions was 5.9-56.0 (i.q.r. 12.9-22.0) per cent. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The C-index through 6 and 12 months was 0.663 (95 per cent c.i. 0.624 to 0.702) and 0.661 (0.632 to 0.689) respectively. The observed 6-month EHR risk was 6.5 per cent for patients in the lowest quartile of predicted risk compared with 32.0 per cent in the highest quartile. CONCLUSION: Early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs can be predicted.

The course of pain and dysphagia after radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus-related neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is effective for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) neoplasia, but little is known on the course of pain and dysphagia after RFA. We aimed to describe the course of post-RFA symptoms and to identify possible associated risk factors. METHODS: In this multicenter, observational cohort study, all RFA procedures registered in a prospective database were included. Patient and treatment characteristics were collected from medical records and patients self-registered post-procedural symptoms in electronic symptom diaries for 14 days. Mixed model regression was used for the analyses. RESULTS: In total, 255 diaries were completed. Post-RFA pain was reported for 95 % (95 %CI 93-98) of procedures (median duration 14 days; 25th-75th percentiles [p25-p75] 11-14) and major pain for 64 % (95 %CI 58-69; median duration 8 days, p25-p75 3-13). Post-procedural pain significantly increased with BE length, younger age, and no prior ablation. Dysphagia was present after 83 % (95 %CI 79-88) of procedures (median duration 13 days, p25-p75 9-14). The risk of dysphagia decreased with age and increased when patients experienced more pain. CONCLUSIONS: RFA treatment for BE-related neoplasia seems a significant burden for patients, and post-procedural symptoms should be taken into account when counseling patients before starting endoscopic eradication therapy.

Development and validation of risk calculators for people with "thin" melanomas on their skin to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return: a plain language summary of publication.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: This is a summary of an article describing the development of risk calculators for use in people who develop a type of melanoma on their skin called "thin" melanoma to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return. The article was originally published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology in 2021. HOW WERE THE CALCULATORS DEVELOPED?: Calculations were performed to predict the chance of people with thin melanomas surviving without their melanoma recurring. Three graphical prediction calculators (called nomograms) were developed, along with easy-to-use online calculators using the same underlying calculation methods. The model was developed using data for 25,930 Dutch people diagnosed with thin melanomas (called the "development set"). To test its ability to predict melanoma recurrence, it was then compared with data for 2,968 Australian people with melanoma (the "validation set"). The calculators developed in the Dutch patients were found to accurately predict the risk of melanoma recurring for people with melanoma in the Australian "validation" group. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The calculators provide estimates of the risk of the melanoma returning for people with thin melanomas. The easy-to-use online calculators are freely available on a smartphone, tablet or computer, and will assist in providing accurate estimates of recurrence risks for individuals with thin melanomas, allowing more intensive follow-up of those whose predicted risk of their melanoma returning is high.

Peritoneal metastases from colorectal cancer belong to Consensus Molecular Subtype 4 and are sensitised to oxaliplatin by inhibiting reducing capacity.

BACKGROUND: Peritoneal metastases (PM) in colorectal cancer (CRC) are associated with therapy resistance and poor survival. Oxaliplatin monotherapy is widely applied in the intraperitoneal treatment of PM, but fails to yield clinical benefit. We aimed to identify the mechanism(s) underlying PM resistance to oxaliplatin and to develop strategies overcoming such resistance. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We generated a biobank consisting of 35 primary tumour regions and 59 paired PM from 12 patients. All samples were analysed by RNA sequencing. We also generated a series of PM-derived organoid (PMDO) cultures and used these to design and test strategies to overcome resistance to oxaliplatin. RESULTS: PM displayed various hallmarks of aggressive CRC biology. The vast majority of PM and paired primary tumours belonged to the Consensus Molecular Subtype 4 (CMS4). PMDO cultures were resistant to oxaliplatin and expressed high levels of glutamate-cysteine ligase (GCLC) causing detoxification of oxaliplatin through glutathione synthesis. Genetic or pharmacological targeting of GCLC sensitised PMDOs to a 1-h exposure to oxaliplatin, through increased platinum-DNA adduct formation. CONCLUSIONS: These results link oxaliplatin resistance of colorectal PM to their CMS4 status and high reducing capacity. Inhibiting the reducing capacity of PM may be an effective strategy to overcome PM resistance to oxaliplatin.

Prognostic Factors for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all prognostic factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, high-grade dysplasia, or CRC) in patients with IBD. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted according to the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Random-effects models were created separately for odds and hazard ratios, different study designs, and univariable or multivariable data. The evidence for all prognostic factors was categorized as "weak", "moderate", or "strong", based on estimate of effect sizes, heterogeneity, and risk of bias. RESULTS: A total of 164 studies were included, allowing pooled analysis of 31 potential prognostic factors. In the univariable analysis, the evidence for extensive disease was classified as strong while evidence for low-grade dysplasia, strictures, primary sclerosing cholangitis, post-inflammatory polyps, family history of CRC, and ulcerative colitis versus Crohn's disease was considered moderate. Evidence for any dysplasia, colon segment resection, aneuploidy, male sex, and age was classified as weak. In addition, histologic inflammation was identified as a risk factor in multivariable analysis (weak evidence). The evidence for the protective factors colonoscopic surveillance, 5-Aminosalicylic Acid, thiopurines, and smoking was moderate in univariable analysis. Multivariable analysis provided weak evidence for statin use. CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified 13 risk factors and 5 protective factors for aCRN in IBD patients, based on univariable and/or multivariable pooled analyses. These findings might lay the groundwork for an improved CRC risk stratification-based surveillance in IBD.

Esophageal Second Primary Tumors in Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Overall Survival.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this registry-based cohort study was to evaluate the potential role of endoscopic esophageal surveillance for esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in Western patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). METHODS: Outcomes were cumulative incidence and risk factors for ESPTs and its effect on overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 47 ESPTs were observed in 1,708 patients with HNSCC, with 10-year cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of 2.9% (2.1-3.7). Alcohol and HNSCC location were significant predictors for ESPTs. ESPTs significantly increased the risk of dying (adjusted hazard ratio 3.36, 95% confidence interval 2.16-5.22). DISCUSSION: Endoscopic esophageal surveillance of Western patients with HNSCC with high risk of ESPTs seems justified.

Full-Thickness Scar Resection After R1/Rx Excised T1 Colorectal Cancers as an Alternative to Completion Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Local full-thickness resections of the scar (FTRS) after local excision of a T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) with uncertain resection margins is proposed as an alternative strategy to completion surgery (CS), provided that no local intramural residual cancer (LIRC) is found. However, a comparison on long-term oncological outcome between both strategies is missing. METHODS: A large cohort of patients with consecutive T1 CRC between 2000 and 2017 was used. Patients were selected if they underwent a macroscopically complete local excision of a T1 CRC but positive or unassessable (R1/Rx) resection margins at histology and without lymphovascular invasion or poor differentiation. Patients treated with CS or FTRS were compared on the presence of CRC recurrence, a 5-year overall survival, disease-free survival, and metastasis-free survival. RESULTS: Of 3,697 patients with a T1 CRC, 434 met the inclusion criteria (mean age 66 years, 61% men). Three hundred thirty-four patients underwent CS, and 100 patients underwent FTRS. The median follow-up period was 64 months. CRC recurrence was seen in 7 patients who underwent CS (2.2%, 95% CI 0.9%-4.6%) and in 8 patients who underwent FTRS (9.0%, 95% CI 3.9%-17.7%). Disease-free survival was lower in FTRS strategy (96.8% vs 89.9%, P = 0.019), but 5 of the 8 FTRS recurrences could be treated with salvage surgery. The metastasis-free survival (CS 96.8% vs FTRS 92.1%, P = 0.10) and overall survival (CS 95.6% vs FTRS 94.4%, P = 0.55) did not differ significantly between both strategies. DISCUSSION: FTRS after local excision of a T1 CRC with R1/Rx resection margins as a sole risk factor, followed by surveillance and salvage surgery in case of CRC recurrence, could be a valid alternative strategy to CS.

Endoscopic intermuscular dissection for deep submucosal invasive cancer in the rectum: a new endoscopic approach.

BACKGROUND: The risk of lymph node metastasis associated with deep submucosal invasion should be balanced against the mortality and morbidity of total mesorectal excision (TME). Dissection through the submucosa hinders radical deep resection, and full-thickness resection may influence the outcome of completion TME. Endoscopic intermuscular dissection (EID) in between the circular and longitudinal part of the muscularis propria could potentially provide an R0 resection while leaving the rectal wall intact. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, the data of patients treated with EID for suspected deep submucosal invasive rectal cancer between 2018 and 2020 were analyzed. Study outcomes were the percentages of technical success, R0 resection, curative resection, and adverse events. RESULTS: 67 patients (median age 67 years; 73 % men) were included. The median lesion size was 25 mm (interquartile range 20-33 mm). The rates of overall technical success, R0 resection, and curative resection were 96 % (95 %CI 89 %-99 %), 81 % (95 %CI 70 %-89 %), and 45 % (95 %CI 33 %-57 %). Only minor adverse events occurred in eight patients (12 %). CONCLUSION: EID for deep invasive T1 rectal cancer appears to be feasible and safe, and the high R0 resection rate creates the potential of rectal preserving therapy in 45 % of patients.

Effects of exercise in breast cancer patients: implications of the trials within cohorts (TwiCs) design in the UMBRELLA Fit trial.

PURPOSE: The Trials within Cohorts (TwiCs) design aims to overcome problems faced in conventional RCTs. We evaluated the TwiCs design when estimating the effect of exercise on quality of life (QoL) and fatigue in inactive breast cancer survivors. METHODS: UMBRELLA Fit was conducted within the prospective UMBRELLA breast cancer cohort. Patients provided consent for future randomization at cohort entry. We randomized inactive patients 12-18 months after cohort enrollment. The intervention group (n = 130) was offered a 12-week supervised exercise intervention. The control group (n = 130) was not informed and received usual care. Six-month exercise effects on QoL and fatigue as measured in the cohort were analyzed with intention-to-treat (ITT), instrumental variable (IV), and propensity scores (PS) analyses. RESULTS: Fifty-two percent (n = 68) of inactive patients accepted the intervention. Physical activity increased in patients in the intervention group, but not in the control group. We found no benefit of exercise for dimensions of QoL (ITT difference global QoL: 0.8, 95% CI = - 2.2; 3.8) and fatigue, except for a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue (ITT difference: - 1.1, 95% CI = - 1.8; - 0.3; IV: - 1.9, 95% CI = - 3.3; - 0.5, PS: - 1.2, 95% CI = - 2.3; - 0.2). CONCLUSION: TwiCs gave insight into exercise intervention acceptance: about half of inactive breast cancer survivors accepted the offer and increased physical activity levels. The offer resulted in no improvement on QoL, and a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register (NTR5482/NL.52062.041.15), date of registration: December 07, 2015.

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. METHODS: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. RESULTS: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)). CONCLUSIONS: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Whole-body MRI versus an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for staging of paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma: a prospective multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the concordance of whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) and an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for the initial staging in children with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) METHODS: Children with newly diagnosed HL were included in this prospective, multicentre, international study and underwent WB-MRI and FDG-PET/CT at staging. Two radiologists and a nuclear medicine physician independently evaluated all images. Discrepancies between WB-MRI and FDG-PET/CT were assessed by an expert panel. All FDG-PET/CT errors were corrected to derive the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard. The expert panel corrected all reader errors in the WB-MRI DWI dataset to form the intrinsic MRI data. Inter-observer agreement for WB-MRI DWI was calculated using overall agreement, specific agreements and kappa statistics. Concordance for correct classification of all disease sites and disease stage between WB-MRI (without DWI, with DWI and intrinsic WB-MRI DWI) and the reference standard was calculated as primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included positive predictive value, negative predictive value and kappa statistics. Clustering within patients was accounted for using a mixed-effect logistic regression model with random intercepts and a multilevel kappa analysis. RESULTS: Sixty-eight children were included. Inter-observer agreement between WB-MRI DWI readers was good for disease stage (κ = 0.74). WB-MRI DWI agreed with the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for determining disease stage in 96% of the patients versus 88% for WB-MRI without DWI. Agreement between WB-MRI DWI and the reference standard was excellent for both nodal (98%) and extra-nodal (100%) staging. CONCLUSIONS: WB-MRI DWI showed excellent agreement with the FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard. The addition of DWI to the WB-MRI protocol improved the staging agreement. KEY POINTS: • This study showed excellent agreement between WB-MRI DWI and an FDG-PET/CT-based reference standard for staging paediatric HL. • Diffusion-weighted imaging is a useful addition to WB-MRI in staging paediatric HL. • Inter-observer agreement for WB-MRI DWI was good for both nodal and extra-nodal staging and determining disease stage.

Role of Up-Front Primary Tumor Resection and Tumor Sidedness in the Survival of Synchronous Metastatic Colon Cancer Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Uncertainty exists about a possible survival benefit of primary tumor resection (PTR) in synchronous metastatic colon cancer (mCC). Since sidedness of the primary tumor is regarded as an important prognostic factor, our objective was to study the interaction between PTR and sidedness in synchronous mCC. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we used data from 2 first-line phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). A mixed Cox regression model was used to study the multiplicative interaction between PTR and sidedness. We adjusted for age, treatment arm, WHO performance status, number of affected organs by metastases, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and year of enrollment. RESULTS: We found that PTR is associated with better survival in both right-sided (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59 [95% confidence interval 0.42-0.8 2]) and left-sided mCC (HR 0.70 [95% confidence interval 0.52-0.93]). The interaction between PTR and sidedness was not significant (p = 0.45). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the prognostic value of PTR is independent of sidedness. Validation of these results will be performed in ongoing RCTs.