Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks1-5, give rise to highly divergent lineages6-8 and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID)9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Here, using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as 'persistent infections' as available evidence suggests that they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Individuals with persistent infection had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting long COVID than individuals with non-persistent infection. We estimate that 0.1-0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, whereas others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies and/or are commonly found in immunocompromised people11-14. This work has profound implications for understanding and characterizing SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology and evolution.

The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app.

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the emergence of digital contact tracing to help to prevent the spread of the disease. A mobile phone app records proximity events between app users, and when a user tests positive for COVID-19, their recent contacts can be notified instantly. Theoretical evidence has supported this new public health intervention1-6, but its epidemiological impact has remained uncertain7. Here we investigate the impact of the National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 app for England and Wales, from its launch on 24 September 2020 to the end of December 2020. It was used regularly by approximately 16.5 million users (28% of the total population), and sent approximately 1.7 million exposure notifications: 4.2 per index case consenting to contact tracing. We estimated that the fraction of individuals notified by the app who subsequently showed symptoms and tested positive (the secondary attack rate (SAR)) was 6%, similar to the SAR for manually traced close contacts. We estimated the number of cases averted by the app using two complementary approaches: modelling based on the notifications and SAR gave an estimate of 284,000 (central 95% range of sensitivity analyses 108,000-450,000), and statistical comparison of matched neighbouring local authorities gave an estimate of 594,000 (95% confidence interval 317,000-914,000). Approximately one case was averted for each case consenting to notification of their contacts. We estimated that for every percentage point increase in app uptake, the number of cases could be reduced by 0.8% (using modelling) or 2.3% (using statistical analysis). These findings support the continued development and deployment of such apps in populations that are awaiting full protection from vaccines.

Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra.

The standard neutral model of molecular evolution has traditionally been used as the null model for population genomics. We gathered a collection of 45 genome-wide site frequency spectra from a diverse set of species, most of which display an excess of low and high frequency variants compared to the expectation of the standard neutral model, resulting in U-shaped spectra. We show that multiple merger coalescent models often provide a better fit to these observations than the standard Kingman coalescent. Hence, in many circumstances these under-utilized models may serve as the more appropriate reference for genomic analyses. We further discuss the underlying evolutionary processes that may result in the widespread U-shape of frequency spectra.

Comparing Phylogeographies to Reveal Incompatible Geographical Histories within Genomes.

Modern phylogeography aims at reconstructing the geographic movement of organisms based on their genomic sequences and spatial information. Phylogeographic approaches are often applied to pathogen sequences and therefore tend to neglect the possibility of recombination, which decouples the evolutionary and geographic histories of different parts of the genome. Genomic regions of recombining or reassorting pathogens often originate and evolve at different times and locations, which characterize their unique spatial histories. Measuring the extent of these differences requires new methods to compare geographic information on phylogenetic trees reconstructed from different parts of the genome. Here we develop for the first time a set of measures of phylogeographic incompatibility, aimed at detecting differences between geographical histories in terms of distances between phylogeographies. We study the effect of varying demography and recombination on phylogeographic incompatibilities using coalescent simulations. We further apply these measures to the evolutionary history of human and livestock pathogens, either reassorting or recombining, such as the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B and the O/Ind-2001 foot-and-mouth disease virus strain. Our results reveal diverse geographical paths of migration that characterize the origins and evolutionary histories of different viral genes and genomic segments. These incompatibility measures can be applied to any phylogeography, and more generally to any phylogeny where each tip has been assigned either a continuous or discrete "trait" independent of the sequence. We illustrate this flexibility with an analysis of the interplay between the phylogeography and phylolinguistics of Uralic-speaking human populations, hinting at patrilinear language transmission.

Correction: Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011461.].

Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burden, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. By analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior exposure, viral burden was 44% lower among Alpha variant infections, compared to those with the predecessor strain, B.1.177. Vaccination reduced viral burden by 67%, and among vaccinated individuals, viral burden was 286% higher among Delta variant, compared to Alpha variant, infections. In addition, viral burden increased by 17% for every 10-year age increment of the infected individual. In summary, within-host viral burden increases with age, is reduced by vaccination, and is influenced by the interplay of vaccination status and viral variant.

In vitro phenotypic characterisation of two genotype I African swine fever viruses with genomic deletion isolated from Sardinian wild boars.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a devastating disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. ASF was first introduced in Sardinia in 1978 and until 2019 only genotype I isolates were identified. A remarkable genetic stability of Sardinian ASFV isolates was described, nevertheless in 2019 two wild boar isolates with a sustained genomic deletion (4342 base pairs) were identified (7303WB/19, 7212WB/19). In this study, we therefore performed in vitro experiments with monocyte-derived macrophages (moMФ) to unravel the phenotypic characteristics of these deleted viruses. Both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented a lower growth kinetic in moMФ compared to virulent Sardinian 26544/OG10, using either a high (1) or a low (0.01) multiplicity of infection (MOI). In addition, flow cytometric analysis showed that both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented lower intracellular levels of both early and late ASFV proteins. We subsequently investigated whether deleted virus variants were previously circulating in wild boars in Sardinia. In the four years preceding the last genotype I isolation (February 2015-January 2019), other eight wild boar isolates were collected, all belonging to p72 genotype I, B602L subgroup X, but none of them presented a sustained genomic deletion. Overall, we observed the deleted virus isolates in Sardinia only in 2019, at the end of a strong eradication campaign, and our data suggest that it might possess an attenuated phenotype in vivo. A better understanding of ASFV evolution in endemic territories might contribute to development of effective control measures against ASF.

The Mitogenome Relationships and Phylogeography of Barn Swallows (Hirundo rustica).

The barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) poses a number of fascinating scientific questions, including the taxonomic status of postulated subspecies. Here, we obtained and assessed the sequence variation of 411 complete mitogenomes, mainly from the European H. r. rustica, but other subspecies as well. In almost every case, we observed subspecies-specific haplogroups, which we employed together with estimated radiation times to postulate a model for the geographical and temporal worldwide spread of the species. The female barn swallow carrying the Hirundo rustica ancestral mitogenome left Africa (or its vicinity) around 280 thousand years ago (kya), and her descendants expanded first into Eurasia and then, at least 51 kya, into the Americas, from where a relatively recent (<20 kya) back migration to Asia took place. The exception to the haplogroup subspecies specificity is represented by the sedentary Levantine H. r. transitiva that extensively shares haplogroup A with the migratory European H. r. rustica and, to a lesser extent, haplogroup B with the Egyptian H. r. savignii. Our data indicate that rustica and transitiva most likely derive from a sedentary Levantine population source that split at the end of the Younger Dryas (YD) (11.7 kya). Since then, however, transitiva received genetic inputs from and admixed with both the closely related rustica and the adjacent savignii. Demographic analyses confirm this species' strong link with climate fluctuations and human activities making it an excellent indicator for monitoring and assessing the impact of current global changes on wildlife.

Evolutionary and Ecological Drivers Shape the Emergence and Extinction of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Lineages.

Livestock farming across the world is constantly threatened by the evolutionary turnover of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) strains in endemic systems, the underlying dynamics of which remain to be elucidated. Here, we map the eco-evolutionary landscape of cocirculating FMDV lineages within an important endemic virus pool encompassing Western, Central, and parts of Southern Asia, reconstructing the evolutionary history and spatial dynamics over the last 20 years that shape the current epidemiological situation. We demonstrate that new FMDV variants periodically emerge from Southern Asia, precipitating waves of virus incursions that systematically travel in a westerly direction. We evidence how metapopulation dynamics drive the emergence and extinction of spatially structured virus populations, and how transmission in different host species regulates the evolutionary space of virus serotypes. Our work provides the first integrative framework that defines coevolutionary signatures of FMDV in regional contexts to help understand the complex interplay between virus phenotypes, host characteristics, and key epidemiological determinants of transmission that drive FMDV evolution in endemic settings.

The mutational spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 genomic and antigenomic RNA.

The raw material for viral evolution is provided by intra-host mutations occurring during replication, transcription or post-transcription. Replication and transcription of Coronaviridae proceed through the synthesis of negative-sense 'antigenomes' acting as templates for positive-sense genomic and subgenomic RNA. Hence, mutations in the genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses can occur during (and after) the synthesis of either negative-sense or positive-sense RNA, with potentially distinct patterns and consequences. We explored for the first time the mutational spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 (sub)genomic and anti(sub)genomic RNA. We use a high-quality deep sequencing dataset produced using a quantitative strand-aware sequencing method, controlled for artefacts and sequencing errors, and scrutinized for accurate detection of within-host diversity. The nucleotide differences between negative- and positive-sense strand consensus vary between patients and do not show dependence on age or sex. Similarities and differences in mutational patterns between within-host minor variants on the two RNA strands suggested strand-specific mutations or editing by host deaminases and oxidative damage. We observe generally neutral and slight negative selection on the negative strand, contrasting with purifying selection in ORF1a, ORF1b and S genes of the positive strand of the genome.

Correction: Pervasive within-host recombination and epistasis as major determinants of the molecular evolution of the foot-and-mouth disease virus capsid.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1008235.].

Pervasive within-host recombination and epistasis as major determinants of the molecular evolution of the foot-and-mouth disease virus capsid.

Although recombination is known to occur in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), it is considered only a minor determinant of virus sequence diversity. Analysis at phylogenetic scales shows inter-serotypic recombination events are rare, whereby recombination occurs almost exclusively in non-structural proteins. In this study we have estimated recombination rates within a natural host in an experimental setting. African buffaloes were inoculated with a SAT-1 FMDV strain containing two major viral sub-populations differing in their capsid sequence. This population structure enabled the detection of extensive within-host recombination in the genomic region coding for structural proteins and allowed recombination rates between the two sub-populations to be estimated. Quite surprisingly, the effective recombination rate in VP1 during the acute infection phase turns out to be about 0.1 per base per year, i.e. comparable to the mutation/substitution rate. Using a high-resolution map of effective within-host recombination in the capsid-coding region, we identified a linkage disequilibrium pattern in VP1 that is consistent with a mosaic structure with two main genetic blocks. Positive epistatic interactions between co-evolved variants appear to be present both within and between blocks. These interactions are due to intra-host selection both at the RNA and protein level. Overall our findings show that during FMDV co-infections by closely related strains, capsid-coding genes recombine within the host at a much higher rate than expected, despite the presence of strong constraints dictated by the capsid structure. Although these intra-host results are not immediately translatable to a phylogenetic setting, recombination and epistasis must play a major and so far underappreciated role in the molecular evolution of the virus at all scales.

The bounded coalescent model: Conditioning a genealogy on a minimum root date.

The coalescent model represents how individuals sampled from a population may have originated from a last common ancestor. The bounded coalescent model is obtained by conditioning the coalescent model such that the last common ancestor must have existed after a certain date. This conditioned model arises in a variety of applications, such as speciation, horizontal gene transfer or transmission analysis, and yet the bounded coalescent model has not been previously analysed in detail. Here we describe a new algorithm to simulate from this model directly, without resorting to rejection sampling. We show that this direct simulation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the rejection sampling approach. We also show how to calculate the probability of the last common ancestor occurring after a given date, which is required to compute the probability density of realisations under the bounded coalescent model. Our results are applicable in both the isochronous (when all samples have the same date) and heterochronous (where samples can have different dates) settings. We explore the effect of setting a bound on the date of the last common ancestor, and show that it affects a number of properties of the resulting phylogenies. All our methods are implemented in a new R package called BoundedCoalescent which is freely available online.

OpenABM-Covid19-An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

On the origin and diversification of Podolian cattle breeds: testing scenarios of European colonization using genome-wide SNP data.

BACKGROUND: During the Neolithic expansion, cattle accompanied humans and spread from their domestication centres to colonize the ancient world. In addition, European cattle occasionally intermingled with both indicine cattle and local aurochs resulting in an exclusive pattern of genetic diversity. Among the most ancient European cattle are breeds that belong to the so-called Podolian trunk, the history of which is still not well established. Here, we used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data on 806 individuals belonging to 36 breeds to reconstruct the origin and diversification of Podolian cattle and to provide a reliable scenario of the European colonization, through an approximate Bayesian computation random forest (ABC-RF) approach. RESULTS: Our results indicate that European Podolian cattle display higher values of genetic diversity indices than both African taurine and Asian indicine breeds. Clustering analyses show that Podolian breeds share close genomic relationships, which suggests a likely common genetic ancestry. Among the simulated and tested scenarios of the colonization of Europe from taurine cattle, the greatest support was obtained for the model assuming at least two waves of diffusion. Time estimates are in line with an early migration from the domestication centre of non-Podolian taurine breeds followed by a secondary migration of Podolian breeds. The best fitting model also suggests that the Italian Podolian breeds are the result of admixture between different genomic pools. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive dataset that includes most of the autochthonous cattle breeds belonging to the so-called Podolian trunk allowed us not only to shed light onto the origin and diversification of this group of cattle, but also to gain new insights into the diffusion of European cattle. The most well-supported scenario of colonization points to two main waves of migrations: with one that occurred alongside with the Neolithic human expansion and gave rise to the non-Podolian taurine breeds, and a more recent one that favoured the diffusion of European Podolian. In this process, we highlight the importance of both the Mediterranean and Danube routes in promoting European cattle colonization. Moreover, we identified admixture as a driver of diversification in Italy, which could represent a melting pot for Podolian cattle.

PRDM9 Diversity at Fine Geographical Scale Reveals Contrasting Evolutionary Patterns and Functional Constraints in Natural Populations of House Mice.

One of the major challenges in evolutionary biology is the identification of the genetic basis of postzygotic reproductive isolation. Given its pivotal role in this process, here we explore the drivers that may account for the evolutionary dynamics of the PRDM9 gene between continental and island systems of chromosomal variation in house mice. Using a data set of nearly 400 wild-caught mice of Robertsonian systems, we identify the extent of PRDM9 diversity in natural house mouse populations, determine the phylogeography of PRDM9 at a local and global scale based on a new measure of pairwise genetic divergence, and analyze selective constraints. We find 57 newly described PRDM9 variants, this diversity being especially high on Madeira Island, a result that is contrary to the expectations of reduced variation for island populations. Our analysis suggest that the PRDM9 allelic variability observed in Madeira mice might be influenced by the presence of distinct chromosomal fusions resulting from a complex pattern of introgression or multiple colonization events onto the island. Importantly, we detect a significant reduction in the proportion of PRDM9 heterozygotes in Robertsonian mice, which showed a high degree of similarity in the amino acids responsible for protein-DNA binding. Our results suggest that despite the rapid evolution of PRDM9 and the variability detected in natural populations, functional constraints could facilitate the accumulation of allelic combinations that maintain recombination hotspot symmetry. We anticipate that our study will provide the basis for examining the role of different PRDM9 genetic backgrounds in reproductive isolation in natural populations.

Persistent Infection of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) with Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus: Limited Viral Evolution and No Evidence of Antibody Neutralization Escape.

African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) are the principal "carrier" hosts of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Currently, the epithelia and lymphoid germinal centers of the oropharynx have been identified as sites for FMDV persistence. We carried out studies in FMDV SAT1 persistently infected buffaloes to characterize the diversity of viruses in oropharyngeal epithelia, germinal centers, probang samples (oropharyngeal scrapings), and tonsil swabs to determine if sufficient virus variation is generated during persistence for immune escape. Most sequencing reads of the VP1 coding region of the SAT1 virus inoculum clustered around 2 subpopulations differing by 22 single-nucleotide variants of intermediate frequency. Similarly, most sequences from oropharynx tissue clustered into two subpopulations, albeit with different proportions, depending on the day postinfection (dpi). There was a significant difference between the populations of viruses in the inoculum and in lymphoid tissue taken at 35 dpi. Thereafter, until 400 dpi, no significant variation was detected in the viral populations in samples from individual animals, germinal centers, and epithelial tissues. Deep sequencing of virus from probang or tonsil swab samples harvested prior to postmortem showed less within-sample variability of VP1 than that of tissue sample sequences analyzed at the same time. Importantly, there was no significant difference in the ability of sera collected between 14 and 400 dpi to neutralize the inoculum or viruses isolated at later time points in the study from the same animal. Therefore, based on this study, there is no evidence of escape from antibody neutralization contributing to FMDV persistent infection in African buffalo.IMPORTANCE Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly contagious virus of cloven-hoofed animals and is recognized as the most important constraint to international trade in animals and animal products. African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) are efficient carriers of FMDV, and it has been proposed that new virus variants are produced in buffalo during the prolonged carriage after acute infection, which may spread to cause disease in livestock populations. Here, we show that despite an accumulation of low-frequency sequence variants over time, there is no evidence of significant antigenic variation leading to immune escape. Therefore, carrier buffalo are unlikely to be a major source of new virus variants.

Analysis of the human Y-chromosome haplogroup Q characterizes ancient population movements in Eurasia and the Americas.

BACKGROUND: Recent genome studies of modern and ancient samples have proposed that Native Americans derive from a subset of the Eurasian gene pool carried to America by an ancestral Beringian population, from which two well-differentiated components originated and subsequently mixed in different proportion during their spread in the Americas. To assess the timing, places of origin and extent of admixture between these components, we performed an analysis of the Y-chromosome haplogroup Q, which is the only Pan-American haplogroup and accounts for virtually all Native American Y chromosomes in Mesoamerica and South America. RESULTS: Our analyses of 1.5 Mb of 152 Y chromosomes, 34 re-sequenced in this work, support a "coastal and inland routes scenario" for the first entrance of modern humans in North America. We show a major phase of male population growth in the Americas after 15 thousand years ago (kya), followed by a period of constant population size from 8 to 3 kya, after which a secondary sign of growth was registered. The estimated dates of the first expansion in Mesoamerica and the Isthmo-Colombian Area, mainly revealed by haplogroup Q-Z780, suggest an entrance in South America prior to 15 kya. During the global constant population size phase, local South American hints of growth were registered by different Q-M848 sub-clades. These expansion events, which started during the Holocene with the improvement of climatic conditions, can be ascribed to multiple cultural changes rather than a steady population growth and a single cohesive culture diffusion as it occurred in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We established and dated a detailed haplogroup Q phylogeny that provides new insights into the geographic distribution of its Eurasian and American branches in modern and ancient samples.