Anti-PF4 antibodies associated with disease severity in COVID-19.

Severe COVID-19 is characterized by a prothrombotic state associated with thrombocytopenia, with microvascular thrombosis being almost invariably present in the lung and other organs at postmortem examination. We evaluated the presence of antibodies to platelet factor 4 (PF4)-polyanion complexes using a clinically validated immunoassay in 100 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 with moderate or severe disease (World Health Organization score, 4 to 10), 25 patients with acute COVID-19 visiting the emergency department, and 65 convalescent individuals. Anti-PF4 antibodies were detected in 95 of 100 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (95.0%) irrespective of prior heparin treatment, with a mean optical density value of 0.871 ± 0.405 SD (range, 0.177 to 2.706). In contrast, patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory disease unrelated to COVID-19 had markedly lower levels of the antibodies. In a high proportion of patients with COVID-19, levels of all three immunoglobulin (Ig) isotypes tested (IgG, IgM, and IgA) were simultaneously elevated. Antibody levels were higher in male than in female patients and higher in African Americans and Hispanics than in White patients. Anti-PF4 antibody levels were correlated with the maximum disease severity score and with significant reductions in circulating platelet counts during hospitalization. In individuals convalescent from COVID-19, the antibody levels returned to near-normal values. Sera from patients with COVID-19 induced higher levels of platelet activation than did sera from healthy blood donors, but the results were not correlated with the levels of anti-PF4 antibodies. These results demonstrate that the vast majority of patients with severe COVID-19 develop anti-PF4 antibodies, which may play a role in the clinical complications of COVID-19.

Durability of Protection Against COVID-19 Through the Delta Surge for the NVX-CoV2373 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Protein-based vaccines for COVID-19 provide a traditional vaccine platform with long-lasting protection for non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens and may complement messenger RNA vaccines as a booster dose. While NVX-CoV2373 showed substantial early efficacy, the durability of protection has not been delineated. METHODS: The PREVENT-19 vaccine trial employed a blinded crossover design; the original placebo arm received NVX-CoV2373 after efficacy was established. Using novel statistical methods that integrate surveillance data of circulating strains with post-crossover cases, we estimated placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy and durability of NVX-CoV2373 against both pre-Delta and Delta strains of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against pre-Delta strains of COVID-19 was 89% (95% CI: 75%, 95%) and 87% (72%, 94%) at 0 and 90 days after 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373, respectively, with no evidence of waning (p=0.93). Vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain was 88% (71%, 95%), 82% (56%, 92%), and 77% (44%, 90%) at 40, 120, and 180 days, respectively, with evidence of waning (p<0.01). In sensitivity analyses, the estimated Delta vaccine efficacy at 120 days ranged from 66% (15%, 86%) to 89% (74%, 95%) per various assumptions of the surveillance data. CONCLUSION: NVX-CoV2373 has high initial efficacy against pre-Delta and Delta strains of COVID-19 with little evidence of waning for pre-Delta strains through 90 days and moderate waning against Delta strains over 180 days.

Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines are needed to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and to protect persons who are at high risk for complications. The mRNA-1273 vaccine is a lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes the prefusion stabilized full-length spike protein of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes Covid-19. METHODS: This phase 3 randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial was conducted at 99 centers across the United States. Persons at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection or its complications were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular injections of mRNA-1273 (100 µg) or placebo 28 days apart. The primary end point was prevention of Covid-19 illness with onset at least 14 days after the second injection in participants who had not previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: The trial enrolled 30,420 volunteers who were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either vaccine or placebo (15,210 participants in each group). More than 96% of participants received both injections, and 2.2% had evidence (serologic, virologic, or both) of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline. Symptomatic Covid-19 illness was confirmed in 185 participants in the placebo group (56.5 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 48.7 to 65.3) and in 11 participants in the mRNA-1273 group (3.3 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.7 to 6.0); vaccine efficacy was 94.1% (95% CI, 89.3 to 96.8%; P<0.001). Efficacy was similar across key secondary analyses, including assessment 14 days after the first dose, analyses that included participants who had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline, and analyses in participants 65 years of age or older. Severe Covid-19 occurred in 30 participants, with one fatality; all 30 were in the placebo group. Moderate, transient reactogenicity after vaccination occurred more frequently in the mRNA-1273 group. Serious adverse events were rare, and the incidence was similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy at preventing Covid-19 illness, including severe disease. Aside from transient local and systemic reactions, no safety concerns were identified. (Funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.).

Efficacy of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine at Completion of Blinded Phase.

BACKGROUND: At interim analysis in a phase 3, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial, the mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy in preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). After emergency use of the vaccine was authorized, the protocol was amended to include an open-label phase. Final analyses of efficacy and safety data from the blinded phase of the trial are reported. METHODS: We enrolled volunteers who were at high risk for Covid-19 or its complications; participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular injections of mRNA-1273 (100 µg) or placebo, 28 days apart, at 99 centers across the United States. The primary end point was prevention of Covid-19 illness with onset at least 14 days after the second injection in participants who had not previously been infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The data cutoff date was March 26, 2021. RESULTS: The trial enrolled 30,415 participants; 15,209 were assigned to receive the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and 15,206 to receive placebo. More than 96% of participants received both injections, 2.3% had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline, and the median follow-up was 5.3 months in the blinded phase. Vaccine efficacy in preventing Covid-19 illness was 93.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.0 to 94.8), with 55 confirmed cases in the mRNA-1273 group (9.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.2 to 12.5) and 744 in the placebo group (136.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 127.0 to 146.8). The efficacy in preventing severe disease was 98.2% (95% CI, 92.8 to 99.6), with 2 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 106 in the placebo group, and the efficacy in preventing asymptomatic infection starting 14 days after the second injection was 63.0% (95% CI, 56.6 to 68.5), with 214 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 498 in the placebo group. Vaccine efficacy was consistent across ethnic and racial groups, age groups, and participants with coexisting conditions. No safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The mRNA-1273 vaccine continued to be efficacious in preventing Covid-19 illness and severe disease at more than 5 months, with an acceptable safety profile, and protection against asymptomatic infection was observed. (Funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.).

A Randomized Trial of Convalescent Plasma in Covid-19 Severe Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma is frequently administered to patients with Covid-19 and has been reported, largely on the basis of observational data, to improve clinical outcomes. Minimal data are available from adequately powered randomized, controlled trials. METHODS: We randomly assigned hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in a 2:1 ratio to receive convalescent plasma or placebo. The primary outcome was the patient's clinical status 30 days after the intervention, as measured on a six-point ordinal scale ranging from total recovery to death. RESULTS: A total of 228 patients were assigned to receive convalescent plasma and 105 to receive placebo. The median time from the onset of symptoms to enrollment in the trial was 8 days (interquartile range, 5 to 10), and hypoxemia was the most frequent severity criterion for enrollment. The infused convalescent plasma had a median titer of 1:3200 of total SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (interquartile range, 1:800 to 1:3200). No patients were lost to follow-up. At day 30 day, no significant difference was noted between the convalescent plasma group and the placebo group in the distribution of clinical outcomes according to the ordinal scale (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 1.35; P = 0.46). Overall mortality was 10.96% in the convalescent plasma group and 11.43% in the placebo group, for a risk difference of -0.46 percentage points (95% CI, -7.8 to 6.8). Total SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers tended to be higher in the convalescent plasma group at day 2 after the intervention. Adverse events and serious adverse events were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: No significant differences were observed in clinical status or overall mortality between patients treated with convalescent plasma and those who received placebo. (PlasmAr ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04383535.).

Vaccine efficacy at a point in time.

Vaccine trials are generally designed to assess efficacy on clinical disease. The vaccine effect on infection, while important both as a proxy for transmission and to describe a vaccine's entire effects, requires frequent (e.g., twice a week) longitudinal sampling to capture all infections. Such sampling may not always be feasible. A logistically easy approach is to collect a sample to test for infection at a regularly scheduled visit. Such point or cross-sectional sampling does not permit estimation of classic vaccine efficacy on infection, as long duration infections are sampled with higher probability. Building on work by Rinta-Kokko and others (2009) and Lipsitch and Kahn (2021), we evaluate proxies of the vaccine effect on transmission at a point in time; the vaccine efficacy on prevalent infection and on prevalent viral load, VE$_{\rm PI}$ and VE$_{\rm PVL}$, respectively. Longer infections with higher viral loads should have more transmission potential and prevalent vaccine efficacy naturally captures this aspect. We demonstrate how these parameters obtain from an underlying proportional hazards model for infection and allow for waning efficacy on infection, duration, and viral load. We estimate these parameters based on regression models with either repeated cross-sectional sampling or frequent longitudinal sampling. We evaluate the methods by simulation and analyze a phase III vaccine trial with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cross-sectional sampling for subclinical infection.

Cross-direct effects in settings with two mediators.

When multiple mediators are present, there are additional effects that may be of interest beyond the well-known natural (NDE) and controlled direct effects (CDE). These effects cross the type of control on the mediators, setting one to a constant level and one to its natural level, which differs across subjects. We introduce five such estimands for the cross-CDE and -NDE when two mediators are measured. We consider both the scenario where one mediator is influenced by the other, referred to as sequential mediators, and the scenario where the mediators do not influence each other. Such estimands may be of interest in immunology, as we discuss in relation to measured immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. We provide identifying expressions for the estimands in observational settings where there is no residual confounding, and where intervention, outcome, and mediators are of arbitrary type. We further provide tight symbolic bounds for the estimands in randomized settings where there may be residual confounding of the outcome and mediator relationship and all measured variables are binary.

Immune correlates analysis using vaccinees from test negative designs.

Determining the effect of vaccine-induced immune response on disease risk is an important goal of vaccinology. Typically, immune correlates analyses are conducted prospectively with immune response measured shortly after vaccination and subsequent disease status regressed on immune response. In outbreaks and rare disease settings, collecting samples from all vaccinees is not feasible. The test negative design is a retrospective design used to measure vaccine efficacy where symptomatic individuals who present at a clinic are assessed for relevant disease (cases) or some other disease (controls) and vaccination status ascertained. This article proposes that test negative vaccinees have immune response to vaccine assessed both for relevant (e.g., Ebola) and irrelevant (e.g., vector) proteins. If the latter immune response is unaffected by active (Ebola) infection, and is correlated with the relevant immune response, it can serve as a proxy for the immune response of interest proximal to infection. We show that logistic regression using imputed immune response as the covariate and case disease as outcome can estimate the prospective immune response slope and detail the assumptions needed for unbiased inference. The method is evaluated by simulation under various scenarios including constant and decaying immune response. A simulated dataset motivated by ring vaccination for an ongoing Ebola outbreak is analyzed.

A note on familywise error rate for a primary and secondary endpoint.

Hung et al. (2007) considered the problem of controlling the type I error rate for a primary and secondary endpoint in a clinical trial using a gatekeeping approach in which the secondary endpoint is tested only if the primary endpoint crosses its monitoring boundary. They considered a two-look trial and showed by simulation that the naive method of testing the secondary endpoint at full level α at the time the primary endpoint reaches statistical significance does not control the familywise error rate at level α. Tamhane et al. (2010) derived analytic expressions for familywise error rate and power and confirmed the inflated error rate of the naive approach. Nonetheless, many people mistakenly believe that the closure principle can be used to prove that the naive procedure controls the familywise error rate. The purpose of this note is to explain in greater detail why there is a problem with the naive approach and show that the degree of alpha inflation can be as high as that of unadjusted monitoring of a single endpoint.

Can incorporating genotyping data into efficacy estimators improve efficiency of early phase malaria vaccine trials?

BACKGROUND: Early phase malaria vaccine field trials typically measure malaria infection by PCR or thick blood smear microscopy performed on serially sampled blood. Vaccine efficacy (VE) is the proportion reduction in an endpoint due to vaccination and is often calculated as VEHR = 1-hazard ratio or VERR = 1-risk ratio. Genotyping information can distinguish different clones and distinguish multiple infections over time, potentially increasing statistical power. This paper investigates two alternative VE endpoints incorporating genotyping information: VEmolFOI, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in incidence of new clones acquired over time, and VEC, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in mean number of infecting clones per exposure. METHODS: Power of VEmolFOI and VEC was compared to that of VEHR and VERR by simulations and analytic derivations, and the four VE methods were applied to three data sets: a Phase 3 trial of RTS,S malaria vaccine in 6912 African infants, a Phase 2 trial of PfSPZ Vaccine in 80 Burkina Faso adults, and a trial comparing Plasmodium vivax incidence in 466 Papua New Guinean children after receiving chloroquine + artemether lumefantrine with or without primaquine (as these VE methods can also quantify effects of other prevention measures). By destroying hibernating liver-stage P. vivax, primaquine reduces subsequent reactivations after treatment completion. RESULTS: In the trial of RTS,S vaccine, a significantly reduced number of clones at first infection was observed, but this was not the case in trials of PfSPZ Vaccine or primaquine, although the PfSPZ trial lacked power to show a reduction. Resampling smaller data sets from the large RTS,S trial to simulate phase 2 trials showed modest power gains from VEC compared to VEHR for data like those from RTS,S, but VEC is less powerful than VEHR for trials in which the number of clones at first infection is not reduced. VEmolFOI was most powerful in model-based simulations, but only the primaquine trial collected enough serial samples to precisely estimate VEmolFOI. The primaquine VEmolFOI estimate decreased after most control arm liver-stage infections reactivated (which mathematically resembles a waning vaccine), preventing VEmolFOI from improving power. CONCLUSIONS: The power gain from the genotyping methods depends on the context. Because input parameters for early phase power calculations are often uncertain, these estimators are not recommended as primary endpoints for small trials unless supported by targeted data analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: NCT00866619, NCT02663700, NCT02143934.

Antinucleocapsid Antibodies After SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the Blinded Phase of the Randomized, Placebo-Controlled mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Immunoassays for determining past SARS-CoV-2 infection have not been systematically evaluated in vaccinated persons in comparison with unvaccinated persons. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate antinucleocapsid antibody (anti-N Ab) seropositivity in mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccinees with breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection. DESIGN: Nested substudy of a phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04470427). SETTING: 99 sites in the United States, July 2020 through March 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were aged 18 years or older, had no known history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and were at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe COVID-19. Substudy participants were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the trial's blinded phase. INTERVENTION: 2 mRNA-1273 or placebo injections 28 days apart. MEASUREMENTS: Nasopharyngeal swabs from days 1 and 29 (vaccination days) and from symptom-prompted illness visits were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Serum samples from days 1, 29, and 57 and the participant decision visit (PDV, when participants were informed of treatment assignment; median day 149) were tested for anti-N Abs by the Elecsys immunoassay. RESULTS: Among 812 participants with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 illness during the blinded phase of the trial (through March 2021), seroconversion to anti-N Abs (median of 53 days after diagnosis) occurred in 21 of 52 mRNA-1273 vaccinees (40% [95% CI, 27% to 54%]) versus 605 of 648 placebo recipients (93% [CI, 92% to 95%]). Each 1-log increase in SARS-CoV-2 viral copies at diagnosis was associated with 90% higher odds of anti-N Ab seroconversion (odds ratio, 1.90 [CI, 1.59 to 2.28]). LIMITATION: The scope was restricted to mRNA-1273 vaccinees and the Elecsys assay, the sample size was small, data on Delta and Omicron infections were lacking, and the analysis did not address a prespecified objective of the trial. CONCLUSION: Vaccination status should be considered when interpreting seroprevalence and seropositivity data based solely on anti-N Ab testing. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Incidence of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Infection, by Ethnic Group, Hawaii, USA, 2005-2019.

To further clarify differences in the risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary infection (NTM-PI) among ethnic populations in Hawaii, USA, we conducted a retrospective cohort study among beneficiaries of Kaiser Permanente Hawaii (KPH). We abstracted demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and microbiological data from KPH electronic health records for 2005-2019. An NTM-PI case-patient was defined as a person from whom >1 NTM pulmonary isolate was obtained. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate incidence of NTM-PI while controlling for confounders. Across ethnic groups, risk for NTM-PI was higher among persons who were underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m2). Among beneficiaries who self-identified as any Asian ethnicity, risk for incident NTM-PI was increased by 30%. Low BMI may increase susceptibility to NTM-PI, and risk may be higher for persons who self-identify as Asian, independent of BMI.

Preintubation Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Predicting COVID-19 Mortality: External Validation Using Electronic Health Record From 86 U.S. Healthcare Systems to Appraise Current Ventilator Triage Algorithms.

OBJECTIVES: Prior research has hypothesized the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to be a poor predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. Yet, several U.S. states have proposed SOFA-based algorithms for ventilator triage during crisis standards of care. Using a large cohort of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, we externally validated the predictive capacity of the preintubation SOFA score for mortality prediction with and without other commonly used algorithm elements. DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data. SETTING: Eighty-six U.S. health systems. PATIENTS: Patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between January 1, 2020, and February 14, 2021, and subsequently initiated on mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 15,122 mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, SOFA score alone demonstrated poor discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients using the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.65-0.67). Discriminant accuracy was even poorer using SOFA score categories (AUC, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.54-0.55). Age alone demonstrated greater discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality than SOFA score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.72). Discriminant accuracy for mortality improved upon addition of age to the continuous SOFA score (AUC, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76) and categorized SOFA score (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.71-0.73) models, respectively. The addition of comorbidities did not substantially increase model discrimination. Of 36 U.S. states with crisis standards of care guidelines containing ventilator triage algorithms, 31 (86%) feature the SOFA score. Of these, 25 (81%) rely heavily on the SOFA score (12 exclusively propose SOFA; 13 place highest weight on SOFA or propose SOFA with one other variable). CONCLUSIONS: In a U.S. cohort of over 15,000 ventilated patients with COVID-19, the SOFA score displayed poor predictive accuracy for short-term mortality. Our findings warrant reappraisal of the SOFA score's implementation and weightage in existing ventilator triage pathways in current U.S. crisis standards of care guidelines.

Epidemiology of ICU-Onset Bloodstream Infection: Prevalence, Pathogens, and Risk Factors Among 150,948 ICU Patients at 85 U.S. Hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) acquired in the ICU represent a detrimental yet potentially preventable condition. We determined the prevalence of BSI acquired in the ICU (ICU-onset BSI), pathogen profile, and associated risk factors. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. DATA SOURCES: Eighty-five U.S. hospitals in the Cerner Healthfacts Database. PATIENT SELECTION: Adult hospitalizations between January 2009 and December 2015 including a (≥ 3 d) ICU stay. DATA EXTRACTION AND DATA SYNTHESIS: Prevalence of ICU-onset BSI (between ICU Day 3 and ICU discharge) and associated pathogen and antibiotic resistance distributions were compared with BSI present on (ICU) admission (ICU-BSI POA ); and BSI present on ICU admission day or Day 2. Cox models identified risk factors for ICU-onset BSI among host, care setting, and treatment-related factors. Among 150,948 ICU patients, 5,600 (3.7%) had ICU-BSI POA and 1,306 (0.9%) had ICU-onset BSI. Of those with ICU-BSI POA , 4,359 (77.8%) were admitted to ICU at hospital admission day. Patients with ICU-onset BSI (vs ICU-BSI POA ) displayed higher crude mortality of 37.9% (vs 20.4%) ( p < 0.001) and longer median (interquartile range) length of stay of 13 days (8-23 d) (vs 5 d [3-8 d]) ( p < 0.001) (considering all ICU stay). Compared with ICU-BSI POA , ICU-onset BSI displayed more Pseudomonas , Acinetobacter , Enterococcus, Candida , and Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species, and more methicillin-resistant staphylococci, vancomycin-resistant enterococci, ceftriaxone-resistant Enterobacter , and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales and Acinetobacter species, respectively. Being younger, male, Black, Hispanic, having greater comorbidity burden, sepsis, trauma, acute pulmonary or gastrointestinal presentations, and pre-ICU exposure to antibacterial and antifungal agents was associated with greater ICU-onset BSI risk after adjusted analysis. Mixed ICUs (vs medical or surgical ICUs) and urban and small/medium rural hospitals were also associated with greater ICU-onset BSI risk. The associated risk of acquiring ICU-onset BSI manifested with any duration of mechanical ventilation and 7 days after insertion of central venous or arterial catheters. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-onset BSI is a serious condition that displays a unique pathogen and resistance profile compared with ICU-BSI POA . Further scrutiny of modifiable risk factors for ICU-onset BSI may inform control strategies.

Estimation of vaccine efficacy for variants that emerge after the placebo group is vaccinated.

SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve and the vaccine efficacy against variants is challenging to estimate. It is now common in phase III vaccine trials to provide vaccine to those randomized to placebo once efficacy has been demonstrated, precluding a direct assessment of placebo controlled vaccine efficacy after placebo vaccination. In this work, we extend methods developed for estimating vaccine efficacy post placebo vaccination to allow variant specific time varying vaccine efficacy, where time is measured since vaccination. The key idea is to infer counterfactual strain specific placebo case counts by using surveillance data that provide the proportions of the different strains. This blending of clinical trial and observational data allows estimation of strain-specific time varying vaccine efficacy, or sieve effects, including for strains that emerge after placebo vaccination. The key requirements are that the surveillance strain distribution accurately reflects the strain distribution for a placebo group throughout follow-up after placebo group vaccination, and that at least one strain is present before and after placebo vaccination. For illustration, we develop a Poisson approach for an idealized design under a rare disease assumption and then use a proportional hazards model to address staggered entry, staggered crossover, and smoothly varying strain specific vaccine efficacy. We evaluate these methods by theoretical work and simulations, and demonstrate that useful estimation of the efficacy profile is possible for strains that emerge after vaccination of the placebo group. An important principle is to incorporate sensitivity analyses to guard against misspecification of the strain distribution.

A mixture distribution approach for assessing genetic impact from twin study.

It is challenging to evaluate the genetic impacts on a biologic feature and separate them from environmental impacts. This is usually achieved through twin studies by assessing the collective genetic impact defined by the differential correlation in monozygotic twins vs dizygotic twins. Since the underlying order in a twin, determined by latent genetic factors, is unknown, the observed twin data are unordered. Conventional methods for correlation are not appropriate. To handle the missing order, we model twin data by a mixture bivariate distribution and estimate under two likelihood functions: the likelihood over the monozygotic and dizygotic twins separately, and the likelihood over the two twin types combined. Both likelihood estimators are consistent. More importantly, the combined likelihood overcomes the drawback of mixture distribution estimation, namely, the slow convergence. It yields correlation coefficient estimator of root-n consistency and allows effective statistical inference on the collective genetic impact. The method is demonstrated by a twin study on immune traits.

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort.

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient's first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. RESULTS: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896-0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887-0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. CONCLUSIONS: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Coronavirus Occurrence in the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) Cohort of Michigan Households: Reinfection Frequency and Serologic Responses to Seasonal and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronaviruses.

BACKGROUND: We investigated frequency of reinfection with seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) and serum antibody response following infection over 8 years in the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) cohort. METHODS: Households were followed annually for identification of acute respiratory illness with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed HCoV infection. Serum collected before and at 2 time points postinfection were tested using a multiplex binding assay to quantify antibody to seasonal, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike proteins and SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomains and N protein. RESULTS: Of 3418 participants, 40% were followed for ≥3 years. A total of 1004 HCoV infections were documented; 303 (30%) were reinfections of any HCoV type. The number of HCoV infections ranged from 1 to 13 per individual. The mean time to reinfection with the same type was estimated at 983 days for 229E, 578 days for HKU1, 615 days for OC43, and 711 days for NL63. Binding antibody levels to seasonal HCoVs were high, with little increase postinfection, and were maintained over time. Homologous, preinfection antibody levels did not significantly correlate with odds of infection, and there was little cross-response to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfection with seasonal HCoVs is frequent. Binding anti-spike protein antibodies do not correlate with protection from seasonal HCoV infection.