Pollen limitation as a main driver of fruiting dynamics in oak populations.

In many perennial wind-pollinated plants, the dynamics of seed production is commonly known to be highly fluctuating from year to year and synchronised among individuals within populations. The proximate causes of such seeding dynamics, called masting, are still poorly understood in oak species that are widespread in the northern hemisphere, and whose fruiting dynamics dramatically impacts forest regeneration and biodiversity. Combining long-term surveys of oak airborne pollen amount and acorn production over large-scale field networks in temperate areas, and a mechanistic modelling approach, we found that the pollen dynamics is the key driver of oak masting. Mechanisms at play involved both internal resource allocation to pollen production synchronised among trees and spring weather conditions affecting the amount of airborne pollen available for reproduction. The sensitivity of airborne pollen to weather conditions might make oak masting and its ecological consequences highly sensitive to climate change.

Coexistence of two sympatric cryptic bat species in French Guiana: insights from genetic, acoustic and ecological data.

BACKGROUND: The distinction between lineages of neotropical bats from the Pteronotus parnellii species complex has been previously made according to mitochondrial DNA, and especially morphology and acoustics, in order to separate them into two species. In these studies, either sample sizes were too low when genetic and acoustic or morphological data were gathered on the same individuals, or genetic and other data were collected on different individuals. In this study, we intensively sampled bats in 4 caves and combined all approaches in order to analyse genetic, morphologic, and acoustic divergence between these lineages that live in the same caves in French Guiana. RESULTS: A multiplex of 20 polymorphic microsatellite markers was developed using the 454-pyrosequencing technique to investigate for the first time the extent of reproductive isolation between the two lineages and the population genetic structure within lineages. We genotyped 748 individuals sampled between 2010 and 2015 at the 20 nuclear microsatellite loci and sequenced a portion of the cytochrome c oxydase I gene in a subset of these. Two distinct, non-overlapping haplogroups corresponding to cryptic species P. alitonus and P. rubiginosus were revealed, in accordance with previous findings. No spatial genetic structure between caves was detected for both species. Hybridization appeared to be quite limited (0.1-4%) using microsatellite markers whereas introgression was more common (7.5%) and asymmetric for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). CONCLUSIONS: The extremely low rate of hybridization could be explained by differences in life cycle phenology between species as well as morphological and acoustical distinction between sexes in one or the other species. Taken together, these results add to our growing understanding of the nature of species boundaries in Pteronotus parnelli, but deserve more in-depth studies to understand the evolutionary processes underlying asymmetric mtDNA introgression in this group of cryptic species.

Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.

BACKGROUND: Improving knowledge about influenza transmission is crucial to upgrade surveillance network and to develop accurate predicting models to enhance public health intervention strategies. Epidemics usually occur in winter in temperate countries and during the rainy season for tropical countries, suggesting a climate impact on influenza spread. Despite a lot of studies, the role of weather on influenza spread is not yet fully understood. In the present study, we investigated this issue at two different levels. METHODS: First, we evaluated how weekly (intra-annual) incidence variations of clinical diseases could be linked to those of climatic factors. We considered that only a fraction of the human population is susceptible at the beginning of a year due to immunity acquired from previous years. Second, we focused on epidemic sizes (cumulated number of clinical reported cases) and looked at how their inter-annual and regional variations could be related to differences in the winter climatic conditions of the epidemic years over the regions. We quantified the impact of fifteen climatic variables in France using the Réseau des GROG surveillance network incidence data over eleven regions and nine years. RESULTS: At the epidemic scale, no impact of climatic factors was highlighted. At the intra-annual scale, six climatic variables had a significant impact: average temperature (5.54 ± 1.09 %), absolute humidity (5.94 ± 1.08 %), daily variation of absolute humidity (3.02 ± 1.17 %), sunshine duration (3.46 ± 1.06 %), relative humidity (4.92 ± 1.20 %) and daily variation of relative humidity (4.46 ± 1.24 %). Since in practice the impact of two highly correlated variables is very hard to disentangle, we performed a principal component analysis that revealed two groups of three highly correlated climatic variables: one including the first three highlighted climatic variables on the one hand, the other including the last three ones on the other hand. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that, among the six factors that appeared to be significant, only two (one per group) could in fact have a real effect on influenza spread, although it is not possible to determine which one based on a purely statistical argument. Our results support the idea of an important role of climate on the spread of influenza.

Quantifying transmission by stage of infection in the field: the example of SIV-1 and STLV-1 infecting mandrills.

The early stage of viral infection is often followed by an important increase of viral load and is generally considered to be the most at risk for pathogen transmission. Most methods quantifying the relative importance of the different stages of infection were developed for studies aimed at measuring HIV transmission in Humans. However, they cannot be transposed to animal populations in which less information is available. Here we propose a general method to quantify the importance of the early and late stages of the infection on micro-organism transmission from field studies. The method is based on a state space dynamical model parameterized using Bayesian inference. It is illustrated by a 28 years dataset in mandrills infected by Simian Immunodeficiency Virus type-1 (SIV-1) and the Simian T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus type-1 (STLV-1). For both viruses we show that transmission is predominant during the early stage of the infection (transmission ratio for SIV-1: 1.16 [0.0009; 18.15] and 9.92 [0.03; 83.8] for STLV-1). However, in terms of basic reproductive number (R0 ), which quantifies the weight of both stages in the spread of the virus, the results suggest that the epidemics of SIV-1 and STLV-1 are mainly driven by late transmissions in this population.

Early infections by myxoma virus of young rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) protected by maternal antibodies activate their immune system and enhance herd immunity in wild populations.

The role of maternal antibodies is to protect newborns against acute early infection by pathogens. This can be achieved either by preventing any infection or by allowing attenuated infections associated with activation of the immune system, the two strategies being based on different cost/benefit ratios. We carried out an epidemiological survey of myxomatosis, which is a highly lethal infectious disease, in two distant wild populations of rabbits to describe the epidemiological pattern of the disease. Detection of specific IgM and IgG enabled us to describe the pattern of immunity. We show that maternal immunity attenuates early infection of juveniles and enables activation of their immune system. This mechanism associated with steady circulation of the myxoma virus in both populations, which induces frequent reinfections of immune rabbits, leads to the maintenance of high immunity levels within populations. Thus, myxomatosis has a low impact, with most infections being asymptomatic. This work shows that infection of young rabbits protected by maternal antibodies induces attenuated disease and activates their immune system. This may play a major role in reducing the impact of a highly lethal disease when ecological conditions enable permanent circulation of the pathogen.

Staphylococcus aureus Host Spectrum Correlates with Methicillin Resistance in a Multi-Species Ecosystem.

Although antibiotic resistance is a major issue for both human and animal health, very few studies have investigated the role of the bacterial host spectrum in its dissemination within natural ecosystems. Here, we assessed the prevalence of methicillin resistance among Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates from humans, non-human primates (NHPs), micromammals and bats in a primatology center located in southeast Gabon, and evaluated the plausibility of four main predictions regarding the acquisition of antibiotic resistance in this ecosystem. MRSA strain prevalence was much higher in exposed species (i.e., humans and NHPs which receive antibiotic treatment) than in unexposed species (micromammals and bats), and in NHP species living in enclosures than those in captivity-supporting the assumption that antibiotic pressure is a risk factor in the acquisition of MRSA that is reinforced by the irregularity of drug treatment. In the two unexposed groups of species, resistance prevalence was high in the generalist strains that infect humans or NHPs, supporting the hypothesis that MRSA strains diffuse to wild species through interspecific transmission of a generalist strain. Strikingly, the generalist strains that were not found in humans showed a higher proportion of MRSA strains than specialist strains, suggesting that generalist strains present a greater potential for the acquisition of antibiotic resistance than specialist strains. The host spectrum is thus a major component of the issue of antibiotic resistance in ecosystems where humans apply strong antibiotic pressure.

Natural simian immunodeficiency virus transmission in mandrills: a family affair?

Understanding how pathogens spread and persist in the ecosystem is critical for deciphering the epidemiology of diseases of significance for global health and the fundamental mechanisms involved in the evolution of virulence and host resistance. Combining long-term behavioural and epidemiological data collected in a naturally infected mandrill population and a Bayesian framework, the present study investigated unknown aspects of the eco-epidemiology of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), the recent ancestor of HIV. Results show that, in contrast to what is expected from aggressive and sexual transmission (i.e. the two commonly accepted transmission modes for SIV), cases of SIVmnd-1 subtype were significantly correlated among related individuals (greater than 30% of the observed cases). Challenging the traditional view of SIV, this finding suggests the inheritance of genetic determinants of susceptibility to SIV and/or a role for behavioural interactions among maternal kin affecting the transmission of the virus, which would highlight the underappreciated role of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases. Outcomes of this study also provide novel insights into the role of host social structure in the evolution of pathogens.

Surgical Treatment of Oesophagostomum spp. Nodular Infection in a Chimpanzee at the CIRMF Primatology Center, Gabon.

Oesophagostomosis is a zoonotic disease caused by nematodes of the genus Oesophagostomum in the intestinal walls of many species, including ruminants, pigs, humans, and nonhuman primates. Although great apes appear to tolerate the parasite in the wild, they can develop a clinical form that can lead to death in captivity and the natural environment. At the Primatology Centre of the International Centre for Medical Research in Franceville (CIRMF) in Gabon, we recorded 4 deaths of chimpanzees (Pan t. troglodytes) caused by Oesophagostomum spp. between 2015 and 2019. In each case, coprological analysis was positive for strongylid eggs and abdominal ultrasound revealed nodules about 4 cm in diameter on the intestinal and abdominal walls. Albendazole treatments administered by mouth in two doses of 400 mg six months apart resulted in the disappearance of the parasite in coprological samples but the chimpanzees still died. Autopsies carried out on all four chimpanzees revealed a rupture of the cysts and a discharge of pus into the abdomen in each case. We report surgical management involving the removal of Oesophagostomum spp. cysts from a chimpanzee following coprological analysis and abdominal ultrasound examination. Surgical exploration confirmed the fragility of the cystic walls, the rupture of which we avoided. This 5th new case of Oesophagostomum ssp. nodules recovered without complications following the operation and could rejoin his group. We suggest that surgical intervention should be considered in similar cases in captive primates, especially chimpanzees.

Can cat predation help competitors coexist in seabird communities?

On oceanic islands, nest site availability can be an important factor regulating seabird population dynamics. The potential for birds to secure a nest to reproduce can be an important component of their life histories. The dates at which different seabird species arrive at colonies to breed will have important consequences for their relative chances of success. Early arrival on the island allows birds to obtain nests more easily and have higher reproductive success. However, the presence of an introduced predator may reverse this situation. For instance, in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen archipelago, early arriving birds suffer heavy predation from introduced cats. Cats progressively switch from seabirds to rabbits, since the local rabbit population starts to peak after early arriving seabird species have already returned to the colony. When late-arriving birds arrive, cat predation pressure on seabirds is thus weaker. In this paper, we investigate the assumption that the advantage of early nest mnopolization conferred to early arriving birds may be counterbalanced by the cost resulting from predation. We develop a mathematical model representing a simplified situation in which two insular seabird species differ only in their arrival date at the colony site and compete for nesting sites. We conclude that predation may ensure the coexistence of the two bird species or favor the late-arriving species, but only when seasonal variations in predation pressure are large. Interestingly, we conclude that arriving early is only favorable until a given level where high reproductive success no longer compensates for the long exposure to strong predation pressure. Our work suggests that predation can help to maintain the balance between species of different phenologies.

Pathogens Shape Sex Differences in Mammalian Aging.

Understanding the origin of sex differences in lifespan and aging patterns remains a salient challenge in both biogerontology and evolutionary biology. Different factors have been studied but the potential influence of pathogens has never been investigated. Sex differences, especially in hormones and resource allocation, generate a differential response to pathogens and thereby shape sex differences in lifespan or aging. We provide an integrative framework linking host pathogenic environment with both sex-specific selections on immune performance and mortality trajectories. We propose future directions to fill existing knowledge gaps about mechanisms that link sex differences, not only to exposition and sensitivity to pathogens, but also to mortality patterns, whilst emphasizing the urgent need to consider the role of sex in medicine.

Bacterial Transformation Buffers Environmental Fluctuations through the Reversible Integration of Mobile Genetic Elements.

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) promotes the spread of genes within bacterial communities. Among the HGT mechanisms, natural transformation stands out as being encoded by the bacterial core genome. Natural transformation is often viewed as a way to acquire new genes and to generate genetic mixing within bacterial populations. Another recently proposed function is the curing of bacterial genomes of their infectious parasitic mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Here, we propose that these seemingly opposing theoretical points of view can be unified. Although costly for bacterial cells, MGEs can carry functions that are at points in time beneficial to bacteria under stressful conditions (e.g., antibiotic resistance genes). Using computational modeling, we show that, in stochastic environments, an intermediate transformation rate maximizes bacterial fitness by allowing the reversible integration of MGEs carrying resistance genes, although these MGEs are costly for host cell replication. Based on this dual function (MGE acquisition and removal), transformation would be a key mechanism for stabilizing the bacterial genome in the long term, and this would explain its striking conservation.IMPORTANCE Natural transformation is the acquisition, controlled by bacteria, of extracellular DNA and is one of the most common mechanisms of horizontal gene transfer, promoting the spread of resistance genes. However, its evolutionary function remains elusive, and two main roles have been proposed: (i) the new gene acquisition and genetic mixing within bacterial populations and (ii) the removal of infectious parasitic mobile genetic elements (MGEs). While the first one promotes genetic diversification, the other one promotes the removal of foreign DNA and thus genome stability, making these two functions apparently antagonistic. Using a computational model, we show that intermediate transformation rates, commonly observed in bacteria, allow the acquisition then removal of MGEs. The transient acquisition of costly MGEs with resistance genes maximizes bacterial fitness in environments with stochastic stress exposure. Thus, transformation would ensure both a strong dynamic of the bacterial genome in the short term and its long-term stabilization.

Evolution of microparasites in spatially and genetically structured host populations: the example of RHDV infecting rabbits.

Several studies have shown that classical results of microparasite evolution could not extend to the case where the host species shows an important spatial structure. Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), responsible for rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD), which recently emerged in rabbits, has strains within a wide range of virulence, thus providing an interesting example of competition between strains infecting a host species with a metapopulation structure. In addition, rabbits may show a genetic diversity regarding RHDV susceptibility. In the present paper we use the example of the rabbit-RHDV interaction to study the competition between strains of a same microparasite in a host population that is both spatially and genetically structured. Using metapopulation models we show that the evolution of the microparasite is guided by a trade-off between its capacity to invade subpopulations potentially infected by other strains and its capacity to persist within the subpopulation. In such a context, host genetic diversity acts by reducing the number of hosts susceptible to each strain, often favouring more persistent-and generally less virulent-strains. We also show that even in a stochastic context where host genes regularly go locally extinct, the microparasite pressure helps maintain the genetic diversity in the long term while reinforcing gene loss risk in the short term. Finally, we study how different demographic and epidemiologic parameters affect the coevolution between the rabbit and RHDV.

Impact of myxomatosis in relation to local persistence in wild rabbit populations: the role of waning immunity and the reproductive period.

Many diseases are less severe when they are contracted in early life. For highly lethal diseases, such as myxomatosis in rabbits, getting infected early in life can represent the best chance for an individual to survive the disease. For myxomatosis, early infections are attenuated by maternal antibodies. This may lead to the immunisation of the host, preventing the subsequent development of the lethal form of the disease. But early infection of young individuals requires specific demographic and epidemiological contexts, such as a high transmission rate of the pathogen agent. To investigate other factors involved in the impact of such diseases, we have built a stochastic model of a rabbit metapopulation infected by myxomatosis. We show that the impact of the pathogen agent can be reduced by early infections only when the agent has a long local persistence time and/or when the host subpopulations are highly connected. The length of the reproductive period and the duration of acquired immunity are also important factors influencing the persistence of the pathogen and thus, the impact of the disease. Besides confirming the role of classical factors in the persistence of a pathogen agent, such as the size of the subpopulation or the degree of connectivity, our results highlight novel factors that can modulate the impact of diseases whose severity increase with age.

Stochastic extinction and the selection of the transmission mode in microparasites.

Stochastic fluctuations in the transmission process of microparasites generate a risk of parasite extinction that cannot be assessed by deterministic models, especially in host populations of small size. While this risk of extinction represents a strong selection pressure for microparasites, it is usually not clearly separated from the deterministic ones. We suggest here that this stochastic selection pressure can affect the selection of the transmission mode of microparasites. To avoid extinction, parasites should maximize their inter-population transmission to ensure frequent reintroductions. Since the types of contacts may differ if congeners belong to the same or distinct populations, strains that are mainly transmitted through inter-population contacts might be selected. To examine this assumption, we analyse the issue of the competition between two strains differing in their transmission mode using a stochastic metapopulation model in which hosts may display different behaviours inside and outside their populations. We show that stochastic selection pressures may drive parasite evolution towards a transmission mode that maximizes the persistence of the parasite. We study the conditions under which stochastic selection pressures may surpass the deterministic ones. Our results are illustrated by the cases of feline immunodeficiency virus in cats and of sexually transmitted diseases in mammals.

Vaccination of free-living juvenile wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) against myxomatosis improved their survival.

For several decades, the populations of the European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) have declined, which is partly due to myxomatosis. Vaccination against this disease is expected to contribute to restoration of rabbit populations but the actual impact of myxomatosis is not well known and vaccination might have some negative effects. We analyzed the capture-mark-recapture data obtained in a 4-year field experiment (1991-1994) in a park near Paris, France wherein 300 out of 565 seronegative juvenile rabbits were vaccinated at first capture against myxomatosis with the nontransmissible Dervaximyxo SG33 vaccine. After accounting for weight at first capture, age-class (juvenile/adult), "trap-happiness" and season (spring/autumn) of the capture event, vaccinated rabbits had 1.8-fold greater odds of surviving than the unvaccinated rabbits. The average summer survival risk for vaccinated juveniles was 0.63 (+/-0.08 S.E.) whereas it was 0.48 (+/-0.08 S.E.) for unvaccinated juvenile rabbits.

Linking influenza epidemic onsets to covariates at different scales using a dynamical model.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the factors favoring the onset of influenza epidemics is a critical public health issue for surveillance, prevention and control. While past outbreaks provide important insights for understanding epidemic onsets, their statistical analysis is challenging since the impact of a factor can be viewed at different scales. Indeed, the same factor can explain why epidemics are more likely to begin (i) during particular weeks of the year (global scale); (ii) earlier in particular regions (spatial scale) or years (annual scale) than others and (iii) earlier in some years than others within a region (spatiotemporal scale). METHODS: Here, we present a statistical approach based on dynamical modeling of infectious diseases to study epidemic onsets. We propose a method to disentangle the role of covariates at different scales and use a permutation procedure to assess their significance. Epidemic data gathered from 18 French regions over six epidemic years were provided by the Regional Influenza Surveillance Group (GROG) sentinel network. RESULTS: Our results failed to highlight a significant impact of mobility flows on epidemic onset dates. Absolute humidity had a significant impact, but only at the spatial scale. No link between demographic covariates and influenza epidemic onset dates could be established. DISCUSSION: Dynamical modeling presents an interesting basis to analyze spatiotemporal variations in the outcome of epidemic onsets and how they are related to various types of covariates. The use of these models is quite complex however, due to their mathematical complexity. Furthermore, because they attempt to integrate migration processes of the virus, such models have to be much more explicit than pure statistical approaches. We discuss the relation of this approach to survival analysis, which present significant differences but may constitute an interesting alternative for non-methodologists.

The role of maternal antibodies in the emergence of severe disease as a result of fragmentation.

Population fragmentation is a major problem for the conservation of mammalian species. Since the spread of an infectious disease is related to the intensity of contacts between individuals, fragmentation destabilizes the way the parasites circulate in their host population. Recently, Zinkernagel has proposed that a reduction in the frequency of infections by a parasite could lead to the emergence of severe forms of the disease, previously avoided because the disease was contracted early in life and attenuated by maternal antibodies. However, it is still unclear whether this change in disease expression increases the global mortality it induces because the disease becomes more severe and also less frequent. Here, we use a mathematical model to link population fragmentation with the hypothesis of Zinkernagel. Firstly, we show that there is a change in the severity of the disease during the fragmentation process, especially at a local scale, suggesting that host population fragmentation could be a widespread mechanism of disease emergence. Secondly, we show that the emergence of the severe form of the disease can lead to a significant increase in its induced mortality. Finally, we determine the types of interactions for which the fragmentation of the host population could be the most dangerous.

The canine distemper epidemic in Serengeti: are lions victims of a new highly virulent canine distemper virus strain, or is pathogen circulation stochasticity to blame?

In the year 1994, the Serengeti lion population was decimated by a canine distemper disease outbreak. Retrospective investigations showed that this host population had already been in contact with the pathogen in 1981 without any detected sign of disease. As an alternative to the virus mutation hypothesis to explain this difference in virulences observed in 1981 and 1994, we propose a novel mechanism of disease emergence based on variation in population immunity. We use a stochastic model to show that stochastic fluctuations in pathogen circulation, owing to a low probability of virus transmission from its reservoir to the target host and thereby resulting in variations in the global immunity level of the target host population, can explain the observations made in Serengeti. This mechanism may also be involved in other infectious disease emergences or re-emergences.

The host specificity of ape malaria parasites can be broken in confined environments.

Recent studies have revealed a large diversity of Plasmodium spp. among African great apes. Some of these species are related to Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent agent of human malaria (subgenus Laverania), and others to Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium vivax (subgenus Plasmodium), three other human malaria agents. Laverania parasites exhibit strict host specificity in their natural environment. Plasmodium reichenowi, Plasmodium billcollinsi, Plasmodium billbrayi and Plasmodium gaboni infect only chimpanzees, while Plasmodium praefalciparum, Plasmodium blacklocki and Plasmodium adleri are restricted to gorillas and Plasmodium falciparum is pandemic in humans. This host specificity may be due to genetic and/or environmental factors. Infrastructures hosting captive primates, such as sanctuaries and health centres, usually concentrate different primate species, thus favouring pathogen exchanges. Using molecular tools, we analysed blood samples from captive non-human primates living in Gabon to evaluate the risk of Plasmodium spp. transfers between host species. We also included blood samples from workers taking care of primates to assess whether primate-human parasite transfers occurred. We detected four transfers of Plasmodium from gorillas towards chimpanzees, one from chimpanzees to gorillas, three from humans towards chimpanzees and one from humans to mandrills. No simian Plasmodium was found in the blood samples from humans working with primates. These findings demonstrate that the genetic barrier that determines the apparent host specificity of Laverania is not completely impermeable and that parasite exchanges between gorillas and chimpanzees are possible in confined environments.

Parasite-Parasite Interactions in the Wild: How To Detect Them?

Inter-specific interactions between parasites impact on parasite intra-host dynamics, host health, and disease management. Identifying and understanding interaction mechanisms in the wild is crucial for wildlife disease management. It is however complex because several scales are interlaced. Parasite-parasite interactions are likely to occur via mechanisms at the within-host level, but also at upper levels (host population and community). Furthermore, interactions occurring at one level of organization spread to upper levels through cascade effects. Even if cascade effects are important confounding factors, we argue that we can also benefit from them because upper scales often provide a way to survey a wider range of parasites at lower cost. New protocols and theoretical studies (especially across scales) are necessary to take advantage of this opportunity.