Evolutionary trajectories of small cell lung cancer under therapy.

The evolutionary processes that underlie the marked sensitivity of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) to chemotherapy and rapid relapse are unknown1-3. Here we determined tumour phylogenies at diagnosis and throughout chemotherapy and immunotherapy by multiregion sequencing of 160 tumours from 65 patients. Treatment-naive SCLC exhibited clonal homogeneity at distinct tumour sites, whereas first-line platinum-based chemotherapy led to a burst in genomic intratumour heterogeneity and spatial clonal diversity. We observed branched evolution and a shift to ancestral clones underlying tumour relapse. Effective radio- or immunotherapy induced a re-expansion of founder clones with acquired genomic damage from first-line chemotherapy. Whereas TP53 and RB1 alterations were exclusively part of the common ancestor, MYC family amplifications were frequently not constituents of the founder clone. At relapse, emerging subclonal mutations affected key genes associated with SCLC biology, and tumours harbouring clonal CREBBP/EP300 alterations underwent genome duplications. Gene-damaging TP53 alterations and co-alterations of TP53 missense mutations with TP73, CREBBP/EP300 or FMN2 were significantly associated with shorter disease relapse following chemotherapy. In summary, we uncover key processes of the genomic evolution of SCLC under therapy, identify the common ancestor as the source of clonal diversity at relapse and show central genomic patterns associated with sensitivity and resistance to chemotherapy.

[ctHPV-DNA based precision oncology for patients with oropharyngeal cancer - Where are we?] / ctHPV-DNA-basierte Präzisionsonkologie für Patienten mit Oropharynxkarzinom ­ wo stehen wir?

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an established etiologic factor for cancers in the head and neck region, specifically for Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OPSCC). The comparatively good overall survival justifies the current discussion regarding therapy de-escalation for patients with a low-risk profile. In addition to the immunohistochemistry-based biomarker p16INK4a, there is still a need for diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers that allow risk stratification and monitoring during therapy and follow-up of these patients. In recent years, liquid biopsy, especially in the form of plasma samples, has gained importance and is already used to monitor viral DNA in patients with Epstein-Barr virus-associated nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Circulating DNA (ctDNA) released by the tumor into the bloodstream is particularly suitable for a high specificity in detecting virus-associated tumors. Detection of viral E6 and E7 oncogenes in HPV-positive OPSCC is predominantly performed by droplet digital/quantitative PCR as well as next generation sequencing. Detection of circulating HPV-DNA derived from tumor cells (ctHPV-DNA) at diagnosis is associated with advanced tumor stage, locoregional and distant metastases. Longitudinal studies have further demonstrated that detectable and/or increasing ctHPV-DNA levels are associated with treatment failure and disease relapse. However, a standardization of the diagnostic procedure is necessary before introducing liquid biopsy into the clinical routine. In the future, this might allow a valid reflection of disease progression in HPV-positive OPSCC.

The costs of treating and not treating patients with chronic myeloid leukemia with tyrosine kinase inhibitors among Medicare patients in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Patients with high cost-sharing of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) experience delays in treatment for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). To the authors' knowledge, the clinical outcomes among and costs for patients not receiving TKIs are not well defined. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, the authors evaluated differences in TKI initiation, health care use, cost, and survival among patients with CML with continuous Medicare Parts A and B and Part D coverage who were diagnosed between 2007 and 2015. RESULTS: A total of 941 patients were included. Approximately 29% of all patients did not initiate treatment with TKIs within 6 months (non-TKI users), and had lower rates of BCR-ABL testing and more hospitalizations compared with TKI users. Approximately 21% were not found to have any TKI claims at any time. TKI initiation rates within 6 months of diagnosis increased for all patients over time (61% to 85%), with greater improvements observed in patients receiving subsidies (55% to 90%). Total Medicare costs were greater in patients treated with TKIs, with approximately 50% because of TKI costs. Non-TKI users had more inpatient costs compared with TKI users. Trends in cost remained significant when adjusting for age and comorbidities. The median overall survival was 40 months (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 34-48 months) compared with 86 months (95% CI, 73 months to not reached), respectively, for non-TKI users versus TKI users, a finding that remained consistent when adjusting for age, comorbidities, and subsidy status (hazard ratio, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.77-2.81). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 21% of all patients with CML did not receive TKIs at any time. Cost-sharing subsidies consistently are found to be associated with higher initiation rates. Non-TKI users had higher inpatient costs and poorer survival outcomes. Interventions to lower TKI costs for all patients are desirable.

Protocol driven periprocedural anticoagulation for left atrial ablation.

INTRODUCTION: A weight-based heparin dosing policy adjusted for preprocedural oral anticoagulation was implemented to reduce the likelihood of subtherapeutic dosing during left atrial catheter ablation procedures. We hypothesized that initiation of the protocol would result in a greater prevalence of therapeutic activated clotting time (ACT) values and decreased time to therapeutic ACT during left atrial ablation procedures. METHODS: A departmental protocol was initiated for which subjects received intravenous unfractionated heparin (UFH) to achieve and maintain a goal of ACT >300 s. Initial bolus dose was adjusted for pre-procedure oral anticoagulation and weight as follows: 50 units/kg for those receiving warfarin, 75 units/kg for those not anticoagulated, and 120 units/kg for those on direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). A UFH infusion was initiated at 10% of the bolus per hour. One hundred consecutive left atrial ablation procedures treated with Protocol Guided heparin dosing were compared with a retrospective consecutive cohort of Usual Care heparin dosing. RESULTS: When the Usual Care and Protocol Guided cohorts were compared, significant findings were limited to those on pre-procedure DOAC. The initial UFH bolus increased from 99.3 ± 24.8 to 118.2 ± 22.8 units/kg (p < .001), the proportion of therapeutic ACT on the first draw after heparin administration increased from 57.7% to 76.6% (p = .010), and the time to therapeutic ACT after UFH administration decreased from 37.8 ± 19.8 to 30.2 ± 16.4 min (p = .032). CONCLUSION: A weight-based protocol for periprocedural UFH administration resulted in a higher proportion of therapeutic ACT values and decreased the time to therapeutic ACT for those on pre-procedure DOAC.

Safety of apixaban compared to warfarin in hemodialysis patients: Do antiplatelets make a difference?

BACKGROUND: Data on the safety of apixaban compared to warfarin in hemodialysis (HD) patients are accumulating, but the impact of concomitant antiplatelet use is unknown. OBJECTIVES: Compare hemorrhagic risk and impact of antiplatelets in HD patients receiving oral anticoagulants (OAC). METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center study of HD patients started on OAC inpatient over 5 years. RESULTS: 707 patients were included: 563 received warfarin, and 144 received apixaban. 197 had bleeding, most in the warfarin group (173 [30.1%] vs 24 [16.7%] in the apixaban group), P-value < .01). However, with concomitant antiplatelet use, frequencies were similar (31.4% vs 25.0%; P-value = .292). Cumulative incidence using bleeding as event of interest and death as competing risk showed higher rates of bleeding with warfarin. In a multivariate model, apixaban was associated with a lower hemorrhagic risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.55 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.35-0.86}). Apixaban showed lower hemorrhagic risk alone (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.10-0.55) and similar risk when administered with antiplatelets (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.55-1.56). CONCLUSIONS: Apixaban is associated with less bleeding in HD patients compared to warfarin, but concomitant antiplatelet use may negate the safety advantage. Prospective trials are warranted to determine the impact of antiplatelets on apixaban safety.

Comprehensive genomic profiles of small cell lung cancer.

We have sequenced the genomes of 110 small cell lung cancers (SCLC), one of the deadliest human cancers. In nearly all the tumours analysed we found bi-allelic inactivation of TP53 and RB1, sometimes by complex genomic rearrangements. Two tumours with wild-type RB1 had evidence of chromothripsis leading to overexpression of cyclin D1 (encoded by the CCND1 gene), revealing an alternative mechanism of Rb1 deregulation. Thus, loss of the tumour suppressors TP53 and RB1 is obligatory in SCLC. We discovered somatic genomic rearrangements of TP73 that create an oncogenic version of this gene, TP73Δex2/3. In rare cases, SCLC tumours exhibited kinase gene mutations, providing a possible therapeutic opportunity for individual patients. Finally, we observed inactivating mutations in NOTCH family genes in 25% of human SCLC. Accordingly, activation of Notch signalling in a pre-clinical SCLC mouse model strikingly reduced the number of tumours and extended the survival of the mutant mice. Furthermore, neuroendocrine gene expression was abrogated by Notch activity in SCLC cells. This first comprehensive study of somatic genome alterations in SCLC uncovers several key biological processes and identifies candidate therapeutic targets in this highly lethal form of cancer.

Depletion of histone methyltransferase KMT9 inhibits lung cancer cell proliferation by inducing non-apoptotic cell death.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer related death worldwide. Over the past 15 years no major improvement of survival rates could be accomplished. The recently discovered histone methyltransferase KMT9 that acts as epigenetic regulator of prostate tumor growth has now raised hopes of enabling new cancer therapies. In this study, we aimed to identify the function of KMT9 in lung cancer. METHODS: We unraveled the KMT9 transcriptome and proteome in A549 lung adenocarcinoma cells using RNA-Seq and mass spectrometry and linked them with functional cell culture, real-time proliferation and flow cytometry assays. RESULTS: We show that KMT9α and -ß subunits of KMT9 are expressed in lung cancer tissue and cell lines. Importantly, high levels of KMT9α correlate with poor patient survival. We identified 460 genes that are deregulated at the RNA and protein level upon knock-down of KMT9α in A549 cells. These genes cluster with proliferation, cell cycle and cell death gene sets as well as with subcellular organelles in gene ontology analysis. Knock-down of KMT9α inhibits lung cancer cell proliferation and induces non-apoptotic cell death in A549 cells. CONCLUSIONS: The novel histone methyltransferase KMT9 is crucial for proliferation and survival of lung cancer cells harboring various mutations. Small molecule inhibitors targeting KMT9 therefore should be further examined as potential milestones in modern epigenetic lung cancer therapy.

Concomitant use of direct oral anticoagulants and aspirin versus direct oral anticoagulants alone in atrial fibrillation and flutter: a retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of combining aspirin and direct oral anticoagulants on the reduction of cardiovascular events in atrial fibrillation or flutter is not well studied. We aimed to assess whether concurrent aspirin and direct oral anticoagulant therapy for atrial fibrillation or flutter will result in less coronary, cerebrovascular and systemic ischemic events compared to direct oral anticoagulant therapy alone. METHODS: Retrospective study of adult patients between 18 and 100 years old who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation or flutter and were started on a direct oral anticoagulant (apixaban, rivaroxaban, or dabigatran), between January 1, 2010 and September 1, 2015 within the Beaumont Health System. Exclusions were history of venous thromboembolic disease and use of other antiplatelet therapies such as P2Y12 inhibitors. Patients were classified into two groups based on concurrent aspirin use and observed for a minimum of 2 years. Primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events, defined as acute coronary syndromes, ischemic strokes, and embolic events. Secondary outcomes were bleeding and death. RESULTS: Six thousand four patients were in the final analysis, 57% males and 80% Caucasians, median age 71, interquartile range (63-80). The group exposed to aspirin contained 2908 subjects, and the group unexposed to aspirin contained 3096 subjects. After using propensity scores to balance the baseline characteristics in both groups, the analysis revealed higher rate of major adverse cardiac events in the exposed group compared to the unexposed group, (HR 2.11, 95% CI (1.74-2.56)) with a number needed to harm of 11 (95% CI [9-11]). The rate of bleeding was also higher in the exposed group, (HR 1.30, 95% CI (1.11-1.52)). The rate of death was not statistically different between the groups, (HR 0.87, 95% CI (0.61-1.25)). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational analysis of patients with atrial fibrillation and flutter, the concomitant use of direct oral anticoagulants and aspirin was associated with an increased risk of both major adverse cardiac and bleeding events when compared to the use of direct oral anticoagulants alone. These findings underscore the potential harm of this combination therapy when used without a clear indication.

Developing a Workforce for Health in North Carolina: Planning for the Future.

Among the many trends influencing health and health care delivery over the next decade, three are particularly important: the transition to value-based care and increased focus on population health; the shift of care from acute to community-based settings; and addressing the vulnerability of rural health care systems in North Carolina.

Health and social care costs at the end of life: a matched analysis of linked patient records in East London.

BACKGROUND: care in the final year of life accounts for 10% of inpatient hospital costs in UK. However, there has been little analysis of costs in other care settings. We investigated the publicly funded costs associated with the end of life across different health and social care settings. METHOD: we performed cross-sectional analysis of linked electronic health records of residents aged over 50 in a locality in East London, UK, between 2011 and 2017. Those who died during the study period were matched to survivors on age group, sex, deprivation, number of long-term conditions and time period. Mean costs were calculated by care setting, age and months to death. RESULTS: across 8,720 matched patients, the final year of life was associated with £7,450 (95% confidence interval £7,086-£7,842, P < 0.001) of additional health and care costs, 57% of which related to unplanned hospital care. Whilst costs increased sharply over the final few months of life in emergency and inpatient hospital care, in non-acute settings costs were less concentrated in this period. Patients who died at older ages had higher social care costs and lower healthcare costs than younger patients in their final year of life. CONCLUSIONS: the large proportion of costs relating to unplanned hospital care suggests that end-of-life planning could direct care towards more appropriate settings and lead to system efficiencies. Death at older ages results in an increasing proportion of care costs relating to social care than to healthcare, which has implications for an ageing society.

Use of Traditional Healing Practices in Two Ontario First Nations.

Colonization has negatively impacted Canada's Aboriginal people, with one of the consequences being loss of traditional knowledge, beliefs and practices, including traditional healing practices. In a study of two Ontario First Nations, the objectives of this research were to examine: (1) the extent of use of traditional healing practices, including traditional medicines and healers; (2) factors associated with their use and people's desire to use them; and (3) reasons for not using them among those who want to use them, but currently do not. Registered Band Members and volunteers from two First Nations communities (N = 613) participated in a well-being survey. About 15% of participants used both traditional medicines and healers, 15% used traditional medicines only, 3% used a traditional healer only, and 63% did not use either. Of those who did not use traditional healing practices, 51% reported that they would like to use them. Use was more common among men, older people, and those with more than high school education. Those who used traditional healing practices were found to have a stronger First Nations identity, better self-reported spiritual health, higher scores on historical loss and historical loss symptoms and higher levels of anxiety compared with people who did not use them. Common reasons for not using traditional practices were: not knowing enough about them, not knowing how to access or where to access them. These findings may be useful for promoting the use of traditional healing practices for the purpose of improving the health of First Nations people.

Radiological and biochemical effects (CTX-II, MMP-3, 8, and 13) of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) in chronic osteoarthritis in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia.

Inflammation of synovial membrane and degeneration of articular cartilage in osteoarthritis (OA) lead to major changes in joint space width (JSW) and biochemical components such as collagen-II telopeptide (CTX-II) and matrix metallo protineases (MMP-3, 8, and 13). Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) is thought to have an analgesic effect as well as biomodulatory effect on microcirculation and cartilage regeneration in animal studies. The objective of this study was to examine the analgesic and biochemical effect of LLLT in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Subjects (n = 34) who fulfilled the selection criteria were randomly divided into active group (n = 17) and placebo group. Subjects in active group were irradiated laser with the frequency of 3 days per week for 4 weeks with the specific parameters on 8 different points on the joint at 1.5 J per point for 60 s for 8 points for a total dose of 12 J in a skin contact method. The placebo group was treated with the same probe with minimum emission of energy. Visual analog scale for pain intensity, joint space width, collagen-II telopeptide, and matrix metallo protinease-3, 8, and 13 was measured before treatment and at 4 and 8 weeks following treatment. Data are analyzed with mean values and standard deviation with p < 0.05. Baseline values of all outcome measures show insignificant difference (p > 0.05) in both groups which shows homogeneity. After 4- and 8-week treatment, active laser group shows more significant difference (p < 0.001) in all the parameters than the placebo laser group (p > 0.05). Our results show that low-level laser therapy was more efficient in reducing pain and improving cartilage thickness through biochemical changes.

Mentoring Relationships and the Mental Health of Aboriginal Youth in Canada.

We compared the mentoring experiences and mental health and behavioral outcomes associated with program-supported mentoring for 125 Aboriginal (AB) and 734 non-Aboriginal (non-AB) youth ages 6-17 participating in a national survey of Big Brothers Big Sisters community mentoring relationships. Parents or guardians reported on youth mental health and other outcomes at baseline (before youth were paired to a mentor) and at 18 months follow-up. We found that AB youth were significantly less likely than non-AB youth to be in a long-term continuous mentoring relationship. However, AB youth were more likely than non-AB youth to be in a long-term relationship ending in dissolution. AB youth were also more likely than non-AB youth to have been mentored by a female adult. AB youth were significantly more likely than non-AB youth to report a high quality mentoring relationship, regular weekly contact with their mentor, and monthly mentoring activities. Structural equation model results revealed that, relative to non-mentored AB youth, AB youth with mentors experienced significantly fewer emotional problems and symptoms of social anxiety. These relationships were not found for non-AB youth. Our findings suggest that mentoring programs may be an effective intervention for improving the health and well-being of AB youth.

How Does Cardiovascular Disease First Present in Women and Men? Incidence of 12 Cardiovascular Diseases in a Contemporary Cohort of 1,937,360 People.

BACKGROUND: Given the recent declines in heart attack and stroke incidence, it is unclear how women and men differ in first lifetime presentations of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We compared the incidence of 12 cardiac, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular diseases in women and men at different ages. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 1 937 360 people, aged ≥ 30 years and free from diagnosed CVD at baseline (51% women), using linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, acute coronary syndrome registry, and mortality (Cardiovascular Research Using LInked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records [CALIBER] research platform). During 6 years median follow-up between 1997 and 2010, 114 859 people experienced an incident cardiovascular diagnosis, the majority (66%) of which were neither myocardial infarction nor ischemic stroke. Associations of male sex with initial diagnoses of CVD, however, varied from strong (age-adjusted hazard ratios, 3.6-5.0) for abdominal aortic aneurysm, myocardial infarction, and unheralded coronary death (particularly >60 years), through modest (hazard ratio, 1.5-2.0) for stable angina, ischemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, and cardiac arrest, to weak (hazard ratio <1.5) for transient ischemic attack, intracerebral hemorrhage, and unstable angina, and inverse (0.69) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of initial presentations of CVD are neither myocardial infarction nor ischemic stroke, yet most primary prevention studies focus on these presentations. Sex has differing associations with different CVDs, with implications for risk prediction and management strategies. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01164371.

Racial Discrimination, Cultural Resilience, and Stress.

OBJECTIVE: Racial discrimination is a social determinant of health for First Nations people. Cultural resilience has been regarded as a potentially positive resource for social outcomes. Using a compensatory model of resilience, this study sought to determine if cultural resilience (compensatory factor) neutralized or offset the detrimental effect of racial discrimination (social risk factor) on stress (outcome). METHODS: Data were collected from October 2012 to February 2013 (N = 340) from adult members of the Kettle and Stony Point First Nation community in Ontario, Canada. The outcome was perceived stress; risk factor, racial discrimination; and compensatory factor, cultural resilience. Control variables included individual (education, sociability) and family (marital status, socioeconomic status) resilience resources and demographics (age and gender). The model was tested using sequential regression. RESULTS: The risk factor, racial discrimination, increased stress across steps of the sequential model, while cultural resilience had an opposite modest effect on stress levels. In the final model with all variables, age and gender were significant, with the former having a negative effect on stress and women reporting higher levels of stress than males. Education, marital status, and socioeconomic status (household income) were not significant in the model. The model had R(2) = 0.21 and adjusted R(2) = 0.18 and semipartial correlation (squared) of 0.04 and 0.01 for racial discrimination and cultural resilience, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, cultural resilience compensated for the detrimental effect of racial discrimination on stress in a modest manner. These findings may support the development of programs and services fostering First Nations culture, pending further study.

A coding IRAK2 protein variant compromises Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling and is associated with colorectal cancer survival.

Within innate immune signaling pathways, interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinases (IRAKs) fulfill key roles downstream of multiple Toll-like receptors and the interleukin-1 receptor. Although human IRAK4 deficiency was shown to lead to severe immunodeficiency in response to pyogenic bacterial infection during childhood, little is known about the role of human IRAK2. We here identified a non-synonymous IRAK2 variant, rs35060588 (coding R214G), as hypofunctional in terms of NF-κB signaling and Toll-like receptor-mediated cytokine induction. This was due to reduced ubiquitination of TRAF6, a key step in signal transduction. IRAK2 rs35060588 occurs in 3-9% of individuals in different ethnic groups, and our studies suggested a genetic association of rs35060588 with colorectal cancer survival. This for the first time implicates human IRAK2 in a human disease and highlights the R214G IRAK2 variant as a potential novel and broadly applicable biomarker for disease or as a therapeutic intervention point.

Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people.

BACKGROUND: The associations of blood pressure with the different manifestations of incident cardiovascular disease in a contemporary population have not been compared. In this study, we aimed to analyse the associations of blood pressure with 12 different presentations of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (CArdiovascular research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme to assemble a cohort of 1·25 million patients, 30 years of age or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease, a fifth of whom received blood pressure-lowering treatments. We studied the heterogeneity in the age-specific associations of clinically measured blood pressure with 12 acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases, and estimated the lifetime risks (up to 95 years of age) and cardiovascular disease-free life-years lost adjusted for other risk factors at index ages 30, 60, and 80 years. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01164371. FINDINGS: During 5·2 years median follow-up, we recorded 83,098 initial cardiovascular disease presentations. In each age group, the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease was in people with systolic blood pressure of 90-114 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure of 60-74 mm Hg, with no evidence of a J-shaped increased risk at lower blood pressures. The effect of high blood pressure varied by cardiovascular disease endpoint, from strongly positive to no effect. Associations with high systolic blood pressure were strongest for intracerebral haemorrhage (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·32-1·58]), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1·43 [1·25-1·63]), and stable angina (1·41 [1·36-1·46]), and weakest for abdominal aortic aneurysm (1·08 [1·00-1·17]). Compared with diastolic blood pressure, raised systolic blood pressure had a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease, whereas raised diastolic blood pressure had a greater effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm than did raised systolic pressure. Pulse pressure associations were inverse for abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR per 10 mm Hg 0·91 [95% CI 0·86-0·98]) and strongest for peripheral arterial disease (1·23 [1·20-1·27]). People with hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or those receiving blood pressure-lowering drugs) had a lifetime risk of overall cardiovascular disease at 30 years of age of 63·3% (95% CI 62·9-63·8) compared with 46·1% (45·5-46·8) for those with normal blood pressure, and developed cardiovascular disease 5·0 years earlier (95% CI 4·8-5·2). Stable and unstable angina accounted for most (43%) of the cardiovascular disease-free years of life lost associated with hypertension from index age 30 years, whereas heart failure and stable angina accounted for the largest proportion (19% each) of years of life lost from index age 80 years. INTERPRETATION: The widely held assumptions that blood pressure has strong associations with the occurrence of all cardiovascular diseases across a wide age range, and that diastolic and systolic associations are concordant, are not supported by the findings of this high-resolution study. Despite modern treatments, the lifetime burden of hypertension is substantial. These findings emphasise the need for new blood pressure-lowering strategies, and will help to inform the design of randomised trials to assess them. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.

Prognostic models for stable coronary artery disease based on electronic health record cohort of 102 023 patients.

AIMS: The population with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) is growing but validated models to guide their clinical management are lacking. We developed and validated prognostic models for all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death in SCAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Models were developed in a linked electronic health records cohort of 102 023 SCAD patients from the CALIBER programme, with mean follow-up of 4.4 (SD 2.8) years during which 20 817 deaths and 8856 coronary outcomes were observed. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year risk was 20.6% (95% CI, 20.3, 20.9) for mortality and 9.7% (95% CI, 9.4, 9.9) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. The predictors in the models were age, sex, CAD diagnosis, deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, lipids, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, stroke, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, cancer, depression, anxiety, heart rate, creatinine, white cell count, and haemoglobin. The models had good calibration and discrimination in internal (external) validation with C-index 0.811 (0.735) for all-cause mortality and 0.778 (0.718) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. Using these models to identify patients at high risk (defined by guidelines as 3% annual mortality) and support a management decision associated with hazard ratio 0.8 could save an additional 13-16 life years or 15-18 coronary event-free years per 1000 patients screened, compared with models with just age, sex, and deprivation. CONCLUSION: These validated prognostic models could be used in clinical practice to support risk stratification as recommended in clinical guidelines.

The use of procedural kits may reduce unscheduled central line dressing changes: A matched pre-post intervention study.

Background: Unscheduled dressing changes for central venous lines (CVLs) have been shown to increase the risk of bloodstream infections. Objective: The objective of this study is to determine if the use of an innovative dressing change kit reduces the rate of unscheduled dressing changes. Methods: This pre-post interventional study took place at a large, academic, tertiary care center in metro Detroit, Michigan, the United States. We assessed the impact of the interventional dressing change procedure kit on the rate of unscheduled dressing changes for adult patients who underwent placement of a CVL inclusive of a central catheter, peripherally inserted central catheter, or hemodialysis catheter. Data was collected for the pre-intervention cohort through electronic health records (EHRs), while data for the post-intervention cohort were collected by direct observation by trained research staff in combination with EHR data. The primary outcome was the rate of unscheduled dressing changes. Secondary outcomes included rate of unscheduled dressing changes based on admission floor type, etiology of unscheduled dressing changes, and central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs). Results: The study included a convenience sample of 1548 CVLs placed between May 2018 and June 2022 with a matched analysis including 488 catheters in each of the pre- and post-intervention groups. The results showed that the unadjusted rate of unscheduled dressing evaluations was significantly reduced from the pre-intervention group (0.21 per day) to the post-intervention group (0.13 per day) (p < .001). The adjusted rate ratio demonstrated the same trend at 1.00 pre- and 0.60 post-intervention (p < .001). Stratifying the analysis based on the highest level of care showed that the intervention was effective in reducing the unadjusted rate of unscheduled dressing evaluations for both the advanced and regular medical floor subgroups pre- to post-intervention; the advanced subgroup had an reduction from 0.22 to 0.15 per day (p = .001), while the regular medical floor subgroup had a reduction from 0.21 to 0.09 per day (p < .001). CLABSIs were similar in both groups (0.6% vs 0.8%; p = 1.00) in pre- and post-intervention groups, respectively. Discussion: Procedural kits for central line dressing changes are effective in reducing unscheduled dressing changes and may have a role in reducing CLABSI. Further studies assessing the impact of dressing change kits on cost, procedural compliance, and the precise impact on CLABSI are needed.