[Development of a predictive model of death or urgent hospitalization to identify frail elderly]. / Sviluppo di un modello predittivo di decesso o ricovero d'urgenza per l'individuazione degli anziani fragili.

OBJECTIVES: to develop and validate a predictive model of mortality or emergency hospitalization in all subjects aged 65 years and over. DESIGN: cohort study based on 9 different databases linked with each other. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the model was developed on the population aged 65 years and over resident at 01.01.2011 for at least two years in the city of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy); 96,000 persons were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the outcome was defined in case of emergency hospitalization or death during the one-year follow-up and studied with a logistic regression model. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by using the area under the Roc curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the Brier score in the derivation sample (2/3 of the population). These tests were repeated in the validation sample (1/3 of the population) and in the population of Bologna aged 65 years and over on 01.01.2012, after applying the coefficients of the variables obtained in the derivation model. By using the regression coefficients, a frailty index (risk score) was calculated for each subject later categorized in risk classes. RESULTS: the model is composed of 28 variables and has good predictive abilities. The area under the Roc curve of the derivation sample is 0.77, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test is not significant, and the Brier score is 0.11. Similar performances are obtained in the other two samples. With increasing risk class, the mean age, number of hospitalizations, emergency room service consultations, and multiple drug prescriptions increase, while the average income decreases. CONCLUSION: the model has good predictive ability. The frailty index can be used to support a proactive medicine and stratify the population, plan clinical and preventive activities or identify the potential beneficiaries of specific health promotion projects.

[Home management of Covid-19 pneumonia in the early phases of the pandemic: analysis of real-life data of General Practitioners in the Province of Modena from the MAGMA study.] / Gestione domiciliare dei pazienti con polmonite da Covid-19 nelle fasi precoci della pandemia: analisi dei dati real-life della Medicina Generale della Provincia di Modena dallo studio MAGMA.

Primary care management of Covid-19 pneumonia in the Province of Modena in the early phases of the pandemic: data integration from MAGMA study. Retrospective study on patients affected of Covid-19 and followed by General Practitioner from March 2020 to April 2021. 5340 patients were studied, 27% of them developed pneumoniae. Among these, most of them were managed entirely at home with an elevated intensity of care. Daily remote monitoring and home visits, together with a personalized pharmacological treatment, especially for the most severe forms, appeared to be the most effective interventions in reducing hospitalizations.

The effects of primary care monitoring strategies on COVID-19 related hospitalisation and mortality: a retrospective electronic medical records review in a northern Italian province, the MAGMA study.

BACKGROUND: Most symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections produce mild to moderate symptoms. Although most patients are managed in the outpatient setting, little is known about the effect of general practitioners' (GP) management strategies on the outcomes of COVID-19 outpatients in Italy. OBJECTIVES: Describe the management of Italian GPs of SARS-CoV-2 infected adult patients and explore whether GP active care and monitoring are associated with reducing hospitalisation and death. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of SARS-CoV-2 infected adult outpatients managed by GPs in Modena (Italy) from March 2020 to April 2021. Information on management and monitoring strategies, patients' socio-demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes (hospitalisation and death due to COVID-19) were retrieved through an electronic medical record review and analysed descriptively and through multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Out of the 5340 patients from 46 GPs included in the study, 3014 (56%) received remote monitoring, and 840 (16%) had at least one home visit. More than 85% of severe or critical patients were actively monitored (73% daily) and 52% were visited at home. Changes over time in patients' therapeutic management were observed in concordance with the guidelines' release. Active daily remote monitoring and home visits were strongly associated with reduced hospitalisation rate (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.80 and OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.33-0.78 respectively). CONCLUSION: GPs effectively managed an increasing number of outpatients during the first waves of the pandemic. Active monitoring and home visits were associated with reduced hospitalisation in COVID-19 outpatients.

Short-term mortality following COVID-19 vaccination in Bologna, Italy: a one-year study.

The main objective of the study is to assess whether there is an increased risk of mortality in the days following the administration of COVID-19 vaccines in Bologna Health Authority in the first year of COVID-19 vaccination campaign. A secondary objective was to describe causes of deaths occurred in the days after vaccination. We conducted a retrospective observational study on all residents of Bologna Health Authority who received at least one COVID-19 vaccination dose from December 27, 2020 to December 31, 2021 and compared mortality in the 3, 7, 14 30 days after vaccination (risk interval) with the mortality in the period of the same length (3, 7, 14 and 30 days) beyond the 30th day after the last dose of vaccination (control interval). The cohort included 717,538 people. The mortality rate was 2.24 per 100 person-years during the 30 days risk interval vs 2.72 in the control interval with an adjusted incidence rate ratio equal to 0.76 (95% CI: 0.70-0.83, p < 0.001). The risk of mortality is significantly lower (p < 0.001) also in the 3, 7, 14 days risk intervals than in the control intervals. This study shows that there is no increase in mortality in the short-term period after COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among the staff of the Bologna Health Trust, Italy, December 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Randomized controlled trials have shown that mRNA vaccines are highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV2 infection. We conducted a study to assess the real-world effectiveness of mRNA vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) in preventing all and symptomatic SARS-CoV2 infections and COVID-19 related hospitalizations in the staff of the Bologna Health Trust (HT), Italy Methods: We followed up retrospectively 9839 staff of the Bologna HT from December 27, 2020 to April 3, 2020 and calculated the effectiveness in partially and fully vaccinated subjects by applying a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Vaccine effectiveness in preventing SARS-CoV2 infections is 85.5% (95%CI: 75.9-91.3) in the partially vaccinated and 84.8% (95%CI: 73.2-91.4) in the fully vaccinated. In preventing symptomatic infection effectiveness is 81.7% (95%CI: 62.7-91.0) in the partially and 87.1% (95%CI: 69.3-94.6) in the fully vaccinated. There were no COVID-19-related hospitalizations in the partially or fully vaccinated vs 15 hospitalization in the unvaccinated cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines in a real-world setting in Northern Italy.