The use of routine health facility data for micro-stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Current efforts to estimate the spatially diverse malaria burden in malaria-endemic countries largely involve the use of epidemiological modelling methods for describing temporal and spatial heterogeneity using sparse interpolated prevalence data from periodic cross-sectional surveys. However, more malaria-endemic countries are beginning to consider local routine data for this purpose. Nevertheless, routine information from health facilities (HFs) remains widely under-utilized despite improved data quality, including increased access to diagnostic testing and the adoption of the electronic District Health Information System (DHIS2). This paper describes the process undertaken in mainland Tanzania using routine data to develop a high-resolution, micro-stratification risk map to guide future malaria control efforts. METHODS: Combinations of various routine malariometric indicators collected from 7098 HFs were assembled across 3065 wards of mainland Tanzania for the period 2017-2019. The reported council-level prevalence classification in school children aged 5-16 years (PfPR5-16) was used as a benchmark to define four malaria risk groups. These groups were subsequently used to derive cut-offs for the routine indicators by minimizing misclassifications and maximizing overall agreement. The derived-cutoffs were converted into numbered scores and summed across the three indicators to allocate wards into their overall risk stratum. RESULTS: Of 3065 wards, 353 were assigned to the very low strata (10.5% of the total ward population), 717 to the low strata (28.6% of the population), 525 to the moderate strata (16.2% of the population), and 1470 to the high strata (39.8% of the population). The resulting micro-stratification revealed malaria risk heterogeneity within 80 councils and identified wards that would benefit from community-level focal interventions, such as community-case management, indoor residual spraying and larviciding. CONCLUSION: The micro-stratification approach employed is simple and pragmatic, with potential to be easily adopted by the malaria programme in Tanzania. It makes use of available routine data that are rich in spatial resolution and that can be readily accessed allowing for a stratification of malaria risk below the council level. Such a framework is optimal for supporting evidence-based, decentralized malaria control planning, thereby improving the effectiveness and allocation efficiency of malaria control interventions.

Whole-genome mapping of 5' RNA ends in bacteria by tagged sequencing: a comprehensive view in Enterococcus faecalis.

Enterococcus faecalis is the third cause of nosocomial infections. To obtain the first snapshot of transcriptional organizations in this bacterium, we used a modified RNA-seq approach enabling to discriminate primary from processed 5' RNA ends. We also validated our approach by confirming known features in Escherichia coli. We mapped 559 transcription start sites (TSSs) and 352 processing sites (PSSs) in E. faecalis. A blind motif search retrieved canonical features of SigA- and SigN-dependent promoters preceding transcription start sites mapped. We discovered 85 novel putative regulatory RNAs, small- and antisense RNAs, and 72 transcriptional antisense organizations. Presented data constitute a significant insight into bacterial RNA landscapes and a step toward the inference of regulatory processes at transcriptional and post-transcriptional levels in a comprehensive manner.

BMix: probabilistic modeling of occurring substitutions in PAR-CLIP data.

MOTIVATION: Photoactivatable ribonucleoside-enhanced cross-linking and immunoprecipitation (PAR-CLIP) is an experimental method based on next-generation sequencing for identifying the RNA interaction sites of a given protein. The method deliberately inserts T-to-C substitutions at the RNA-protein interaction sites, which provides a second layer of evidence compared with other CLIP methods. However, the experiment includes several sources of noise which cause both low-frequency errors and spurious high-frequency alterations. Therefore, rigorous statistical analysis is required in order to separate true T-to-C base changes, following cross-linking, from noise. So far, most of the existing PAR-CLIP data analysis methods focus on discarding the low-frequency errors and rely on high-frequency substitutions to report binding sites, not taking into account the possibility of high-frequency false positive substitutions. RESULTS: Here, we introduce BMix, a new probabilistic method which explicitly accounts for the sources of noise in PAR-CLIP data and distinguishes cross-link induced T-to-C substitutions from low and high-frequency erroneous alterations. We demonstrate the superior speed and accuracy of our method compared with existing approaches on both simulated and real, publicly available human datasets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The model is freely accessible within the BMix toolbox at www.cbg.bsse.ethz.ch/software/BMix, available for Matlab and R. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. CONTACT: niko.beerenwinkel@bsse.ethz.ch.

Bioinformatics and HIV latency.

Despite effective treatment, HIV is not completely eliminated from the infected organism because of the existence of viral reservoirs. A major reservoir consists of infected resting CD4+ T cells, mostly of memory type, that persist over time due to the stable proviral insertion and a long cellular lifespan. Resting cells do not produce viral particles and are protected from viral-induced cytotoxicity or immune killing. However, these latently infected cells can be reactivated by stochastic events or by external stimuli. The present review focuses on novel genome-wide technologies applied to the study of integration, transcriptome, and proteome characteristics and their recent contribution to the understanding of HIV latency.

Bridging the Gap from Molecular Surveillance to Programmatic Decisions for Malaria Control and Elimination.

An increasing number of molecular and genomic assays are available to study malaria parasite populations. However, so far they have played a marginal role in informing policy and programmatic decision-making. Currently, molecular data are mainly used for monitoring drug efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum; assessing molecular markers of drug and insecticide resistance; and assessing P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 genes (Pfhrp2/3) deletion. We argue that additional use cases for molecular routine surveillance could be implemented in the near future, especially in transmission settings approaching elimination. These would include using quantitative polymerase chain reaction to monitor the prevalence of sub-patent infections in asymptomatic carriers, monitoring parasite genetic diversity as transmission intensity is changing, using genomic data to determine the origin of imported infections and characterize transmission chains in settings with very low malaria transmission, and using serology to monitor recent and past exposures in low-transmission settings. Molecular surveillance could inform control programs on adapting novel strategies, such as reactive case detection or focal mass drug administration, and help evaluate the impact of interventions currently in place. To better integrate molecular and genomic data into control program decision-making, engagement of national malaria control experts is crucial. Local laboratory capacity needs to be strengthened, shortening the time from sample collection to data availability. Here, we discuss opportunities and challenges of the use of molecular and genomic data for supporting malaria control and elimination efforts, as well as the avenues to link molecular and genomic data with gold standard epidemiological measurements through mathematical modeling.

Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania.

As malaria transmission declines, the need to monitor the heterogeneity of malaria risk at finer scales becomes critical to guide community-based targeted interventions. Although routine health facility (HF) data can provide epidemiological evidence at high spatial and temporal resolution, its incomplete nature of information can result in lower administrative units without empirical data. To overcome geographic sparsity of data and its representativeness, geo-spatial models can leverage routine information to predict risk in un-represented areas as well as estimate uncertainty of predictions. Here, a Bayesian spatio-temporal model was applied on malaria test positivity rate (TPR) data for the period 2017-2019 to predict risks at the ward level, the lowest decision-making unit in mainland Tanzania. To quantify the associated uncertainty, the probability of malaria TPR exceeding programmatic threshold was estimated. Results showed a marked spatial heterogeneity in malaria TPR across wards. 17.7 million people resided in areas where malaria TPR was high (≥ 30; 90% certainty) in the North-West and South-East parts of Tanzania. Approximately 11.7 million people lived in areas where malaria TPR was very low (< 5%; 90% certainty). HF data can be used to identify different epidemiological strata and guide malaria interventions at micro-planning units in Tanzania. These data, however, are imperfect in many settings in Africa and often require application of geo-spatial modelling techniques for estimation.

Model-informed target product profiles of long-acting-injectables for use as seasonal malaria prevention.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has proven highly efficacious in reducing malaria incidence. However, the continued success of SMC is threatened by the spread of resistance against one of its main preventive ingredients, Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine (SP), operational challenges in delivery, and incomplete adherence to the regimens. Via a simulation study with an individual-based model of malaria dynamics, we provide quantitative evidence to assess long-acting injectables (LAIs) as potential alternatives to SMC. We explored the predicted impact of a range of novel preventive LAIs as a seasonal prevention tool in children aged three months to five years old during late-stage clinical trials and at implementation. LAIs were co-administered with a blood-stage clearing drug once at the beginning of the transmission season. We found the establishment of non-inferiority of LAIs to standard 3 or 4 rounds of SMC with SP-amodiaquine was challenging in clinical trial stages due to high intervention deployment coverage. However, our analysis of implementation settings where the achievable SMC coverage was much lower, show LAIs with fewer visits per season are potential suitable replacements to SMC. Suitability as a replacement with higher impact is possible if the duration of protection of LAIs covered the duration of the transmission season. Furthermore, optimising LAIs coverage and protective efficacy half-life via simulation analysis in settings with an SMC coverage of 60% revealed important trade-offs between protective efficacy decay and deployment coverage. Our analysis additionally highlights that for seasonal deployment for LAIs, it will be necessary to investigate the protective efficacy decay as early as possible during clinical development to ensure a well-informed candidate selection process.

Leveraging mathematical models of disease dynamics and machine learning to improve development of novel malaria interventions.

BACKGROUND: Substantial research is underway to develop next-generation interventions that address current malaria control challenges. As there is limited testing in their early development, it is difficult to predefine intervention properties such as efficacy that achieve target health goals, and therefore challenging to prioritize selection of novel candidate interventions. Here, we present a quantitative approach to guide intervention development using mathematical models of malaria dynamics coupled with machine learning. Our analysis identifies requirements of efficacy, coverage, and duration of effect for five novel malaria interventions to achieve targeted reductions in malaria prevalence. METHODS: A mathematical model of malaria transmission dynamics is used to simulate deployment and predict potential impact of new malaria interventions by considering operational, health-system, population, and disease characteristics. Our method relies on consultation with product development stakeholders to define the putative space of novel intervention specifications. We couple the disease model with machine learning to search this multi-dimensional space and efficiently identify optimal intervention properties that achieve specified health goals. RESULTS: We apply our approach to five malaria interventions under development. Aiming for malaria prevalence reduction, we identify and quantify key determinants of intervention impact along with their minimal properties required to achieve the desired health goals. While coverage is generally identified as the largest driver of impact, higher efficacy, longer protection duration or multiple deployments per year are needed to increase prevalence reduction. We show that interventions on multiple parasite or vector targets, as well as combinations the new interventions with drug treatment, lead to significant burden reductions and lower efficacy or duration requirements. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach uses disease dynamic models and machine learning to support decision-making and resource investment, facilitating development of new malaria interventions. By evaluating the intervention capabilities in relation to the targeted health goal, our analysis allows prioritization of interventions and of their specifications from an early stage in development, and subsequent investments to be channeled cost-effectively towards impact maximization. This study highlights the role of mathematical models to support intervention development. Although we focus on five malaria interventions, the analysis is generalizable to other new malaria interventions.

The influence of biological, epidemiological, and treatment factors on the establishment and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum.

The effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat Plasmodium falciparum malaria is threatened by resistance. The complex interplay between sources of selective pressure-treatment properties, biological factors, transmission intensity, and access to treatment-obscures understanding how, when, and why resistance establishes and spreads across different locations. We developed a disease modelling approach with emulator-based global sensitivity analysis to systematically quantify which of these factors drive establishment and spread of drug resistance. Drug resistance was more likely to evolve in low transmission settings due to the lower levels of (i) immunity and (ii) within-host competition between genotypes. Spread of parasites resistant to artemisinin partner drugs depended on the period of low drug concentration (known as the selection window). Spread of partial artemisinin resistance was slowed with prolonged parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives and accelerated when the parasite was also resistant to the partner drug. Thus, to slow the spread of partial artemisinin resistance, molecular surveillance should be supported to detect resistance to partner drugs and to change ACTs accordingly. Furthermore, implementing more sustainable artemisinin-based therapies will require extending parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives, and mitigating the selection windows of partner drugs, which could be achieved by including an additional long-acting drug.

Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria.

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator. We demonstrate our approach by optimizing over a high-dimensional parameter space with respect to a portfolio of multiple fitting objectives built from datasets capturing the natural history of malaria transmission and disease progression. Our approach quickly outperforms previous calibrations, yielding an improved final goodness of fit. Per-objective parameter importance and sensitivity diagnostics provided by our approach offer epidemiological insights and enhance trust in predictions through greater interpretability.

Proteo-Transcriptomic Dynamics of Cellular Response to HIV-1 Infection.

Throughout the HIV-1 replication cycle, complex host-pathogen interactions take place in the infected cell, leading to the production of new virions. The virus modulates the host cellular machinery in order to support its life cycle, while counteracting intracellular defense mechanisms. We investigated the dynamic host response to HIV-1 infection by systematically measuring transcriptomic, proteomic, and phosphoproteomic expression changes in infected and uninfected SupT1 CD4+ T cells at five time points of the viral replication process. By means of a Gaussian mixed-effects model implemented in the new R/Bioconductor package TMixClust, we clustered host genes based on their temporal expression patterns. We identified a proteo-transcriptomic gene expression signature of 388 host genes specific for HIV-1 replication. Comprehensive functional analyses of these genes confirmed the previously described roles of some of the genes and revealed novel key virus-host interactions affecting multiple molecular processes within the host cell, including signal transduction, metabolism, cell cycle, and immune system. The results of our analysis are accessible through a freely available, dedicated and user-friendly R/Shiny application, called PEACHi2.0. This resource constitutes a catalogue of dynamic host responses to HIV-1 infection that provides a basis for a more comprehensive understanding of virus-host interactions.

Single-Cell RNA-Seq Reveals Transcriptional Heterogeneity in Latent and Reactivated HIV-Infected Cells.

Despite effective treatment, HIV can persist in latent reservoirs, which represent a major obstacle toward HIV eradication. Targeting and reactivating latent cells is challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of HIV-infected cells. Here, we used a primary model of HIV latency and single-cell RNA sequencing to characterize transcriptional heterogeneity during HIV latency and reactivation. Our analysis identified transcriptional programs leading to successful reactivation of HIV expression.

Exploring viral infection using single-cell sequencing.

Single-cell sequencing (SCS) has emerged as a valuable tool to study cellular heterogeneity in diverse fields, including virology. By studying the viral and cellular genome and/or transcriptome, the dynamics of viral infection can be investigated at single cell level. Most studies have explored the impact of cell-to-cell variation on the viral life cycle from the point of view of the virus, by analyzing viral sequences, and from the point of view of the cell, mainly by analyzing the cellular host transcriptome. In this review, we will focus on recent studies that use single-cell sequencing to explore viral diversity and cell variability in response to viral replication.