RESUMEN
The magnetic field structures of two interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), each observed by a pair of spacecraft close to radial alignment, have been analysed. The ICMEs were observed in situ by MESSENGER and STEREO-B in November 2010 and November 2011, while the spacecraft were separated by more than 0.6 AU in heliocentric distance, less than 4° in heliographic longitude, and less than 7° in heliographic latitude. Both ICMEs took approximately two days to travel between the spacecraft. The ICME magnetic field profiles observed at MESSENGER have been mapped to the heliocentric distance of STEREO-B and compared directly to the profiles observed by STEREO-B. Figures that result from this mapping allow for easy qualitative assessment of similarity in the profiles. Macroscale features in the profiles that varied on timescales of one hour, and which corresponded to the underlying flux rope structure of the ICMEs, were well correlated in the solar east-west and north-south directed components, with Pearson's correlation coefficients of approximately 0.85 and 0.95, respectively; microscale features with timescales of one minute were uncorrelated. Overall correlation values in the profiles of one ICME were increased when an apparent change in the flux rope axis direction between the observing spacecraft was taken into account. The high degree of similarity seen in the magnetic field profiles may be interpreted in two ways. If the spacecraft sampled the same region of each ICME (i.e. if the spacecraft angular separations are neglected), the similarity indicates that there was little evolution in the underlying structure of the sampled region during propagation. Alternatively, if the spacecraft observed different, nearby regions within the ICMEs, it indicates that there was spatial homogeneity across those different regions. The field structure similarity observed in these ICMEs points to the value of placing in situ space weather monitors well upstream of the Earth.
RESUMEN
We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.