Risk of Severe Influenza Among Adults With Chronic Medical Conditions.

BACKGROUND: Severe influenza illness is presumed more common in adults with chronic medical conditions (CMCs), but evidence is sparse and often combined into broad CMC categories. METHODS: Residents (aged 18-80 years) of Central and South Auckland hospitalized for World Health Organization-defined severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) (2012-2015) underwent influenza virus polymerase chain reaction testing. The CMC statuses for Auckland residents were modeled using hospitalization International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes, pharmaceutical claims, and laboratory results. Population-level influenza rates in adults with congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, diabetes mellitus (DM), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were calculated by Poisson regression stratified by age and adjusted for ethnicity. RESULTS: Among 891 276 adults, 2435 influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations occurred. Rates were significantly higher in those with CMCs compared with those without the respective CMC, except for older adults with DM or those aged <65 years with CVA. The largest effects occurred with CHF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] range, 4.84-13.4 across age strata), ESRD (IRR range, 3.30-9.02), CAD (IRR range, 2.77-10.7), and COPD (IRR range, 5.89-8.78) and tapered with age. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the increased risk of severe, laboratory-confirmed influenza disease among adults with specific CMCs compared with those without these conditions.

Risk Factors and Attack Rates of Seasonal Influenza Infection: Results of the Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) Seroepidemiologic Cohort Study.

Background: Understanding the attack rate of influenza infection and the proportion who become ill by risk group is key to implementing prevention measures. While population-based studies of antihemagglutinin antibody responses have been described previously, studies examining both antihemagglutinin and antineuraminidase antibodies are lacking. Methods: In 2015, we conducted a seroepidemiologic cohort study of individuals randomly selected from a population in New Zealand. We tested paired sera for hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) or neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers for seroconversion. We followed participants weekly and performed influenza polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for those reporting influenza-like illness (ILI). Results: Influenza infection (either HAI or NAI seroconversion) was found in 321 (35% [95% confidence interval, 32%-38%]) of 911 unvaccinated participants, of whom 100 (31%) seroconverted to NAI alone. Young children and Pacific peoples experienced the highest influenza infection attack rates, but overall only a quarter of all infected reported influenza PCR-confirmed ILI, and one-quarter of these sought medical attention. Seroconversion to NAI alone was higher among children aged <5 years vs those aged ≥5 years (14% vs 4%; P < .001) and among those with influenza B vs A(H3N2) virus infections (7% vs 0.3%; P < .001). Conclusions: Measurement of antineuraminidase antibodies in addition to antihemagglutinin antibodies may be important in capturing the true influenza infection rates.

Revision of clinical case definitions: influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection.

The formulation of accurate clinical case definitions is an integral part of an effective process of public health surveillance. Although such definitions should, ideally, be based on a standardized and fixed collection of defining criteria, they often require revision to reflect new knowledge of the condition involved and improvements in diagnostic testing. Optimal case definitions also need to have a balance of sensitivity and specificity that reflects their intended use. After the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a technical consultation on global influenza surveillance. This prompted improvements in the sensitivity and specificity of the case definition for influenza - i.e. a respiratory disease that lacks uniquely defining symptomology. The revision process not only modified the definition of influenza-like illness, to include a simplified list of the criteria shown to be most predictive of influenza infection, but also clarified the language used for the definition, to enhance interpretability. To capture severe cases of influenza that required hospitalization, a new case definition was also developed for severe acute respiratory infection in all age groups. The new definitions have been found to capture more cases without compromising specificity. Despite the challenge still posed in the clinical separation of influenza from other respiratory infections, the global use of the new WHO case definitions should help determine global trends in the characteristics and transmission of influenza viruses and the associated disease burden.

La formulation de définitions précises de cas cliniques fait partie intégrante d'un processus efficace de surveillance de la santé publique. Alors que ces définitions devraient, dans l'idéal, s'appuyer sur un ensemble standardisé et fixe de critères de définition, elles nécessitent souvent une révision pour tenir compte des nouvelles connaissances relatives à la maladie concernée et des améliorations apportées aux tests diagnostiques. Pour être optimales, les définitions de cas doivent aussi établir un équilibre entre sensibilité et spécificité qui reflète leur utilisation aux fins prévues. À la suite de la pandémie de grippe H1N1 de 2009-2010, l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS) a lancé une consultation technique sur la surveillance mondiale de la grippe. Cela a conduit à des améliorations concernant la sensibilité et la spécificité de la définition de cas pour la grippe ­ c'est-à-dire une maladie respiratoire dont seule la symptomatologie reste à définir. Le processus de révision n'a pas seulement modifié la définition du syndrome de type grippal pour inclure une liste simplifiée des critères le mieux à même de prédire une infection grippale, il a également permis de clarifier le langage utilisé dans la définition pour en améliorer l'interprétation. Par ailleurs, afin de tenir compte des cas sévères de grippe qui nécessitaient une hospitalisation, une nouvelle définition de cas a été introduite concernant l'infection aigüe sévère des voies respiratoires dans tous les groupes d'âge. Il a été constaté que les nouvelles définitions reflétaient davantage de cas, sans pour autant compromettre la spécificité. S'il est vrai que la distinction clinique de la grippe des autres infections respiratoires continue de poser problème, l'utilisation mondiale des nouvelles définitions de cas de l'OMS devrait permettre de dégager des tendances mondiales concernant les caractéristiques et la transmission des virus grippaux ainsi que la charge de morbidité qui leur est associée.

La elaboración de definiciones precisas de los casos clínicos es una parte fundamental de un proceso efectivo de la vigilancia de la salud pública. Aunque tales definiciones deberían, idealmente, estar basadas en una recopilación estandarizada y fija de criterios de definición, a menudo necesitan una revisión para reflejar el nuevo conocimiento de la enfermedad existente y las mejoras en las pruebas de diagnóstico. Las definiciones óptimas de los casos también deben tener un equilibrio entre sensibilidad y especificidad que refleje su uso previsto. Después de la pandemia de gripe H1N1 en 2009-2010, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) inició una consulta técnica para la vigilancia mundial de la gripe. Esto dio lugar a mejoras en la sensibilidad y la especificidad de las definiciones de los casos de gripe, es decir, una enfermedad respiratoria que carece de una sintomatología definitoria singular. El proceso de revisión no solo modificó la definición de las enfermedades similares a la gripe para incluir una lista simplificada de los criterios que demostraron ser más predictivos de la infección por gripe, sino que también aclaró el lenguaje utilizado para la definición, con el fin de mejorar su interpretación. Para englobar los casos graves de gripe que requirieron hospitalización, también se desarrolló una nueva definición de los casos de la infección respiratoria aguda grave en todos los grupos de edad. Se ha descubierto que las nuevas definiciones engloban más casos sin comprometer la especificidad. A pesar del desafío que todavía plantea la separación clínica de la gripe de otras infecciones respiratorias, el uso global de las nuevas definiciones de los casos de la OMS debería ayudar a determinar las tendencias mundiales en las características y transmisión de los virus de la gripe y la carga de la enfermedad asociada.

Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 to February 2017.

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start.

Timing of influenza A(H5N1) in poultry and humans and seasonal influenza activity worldwide, 2004-2013.

Co-circulation of influenza A(H5N1) and seasonal influenza viruses among humans and animals could lead to co-infections, reassortment, and emergence of novel viruses with pandemic potential. We assessed the timing of subtype H5N1 outbreaks among poultry, human H5N1 cases, and human seasonal influenza in 8 countries that reported 97% of all human H5N1 cases and 90% of all poultry H5N1 outbreaks. In these countries, most outbreaks among poultry (7,001/11,331, 62%) and half of human cases (313/625, 50%) occurred during January-March. Human H5N1 cases occurred in 167 (45%) of 372 months during which outbreaks among poultry occurred, compared with 59 (10%) of 574 months that had no outbreaks among poultry. Human H5N1 cases also occurred in 59 (22%) of 267 months during seasonal influenza periods. To reduce risk for co-infection, surveillance and control of H5N1 should be enhanced during January-March, when H5N1 outbreaks typically occur and overlap with seasonal influenza virus circulation.

Surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in hospitals in the WHO European region - an exploratory analysis of risk factors for a severe outcome in influenza-positive SARI cases.

BACKGROUND: The 2009 H1N1 pandemic highlighted the need to routinely monitor severe influenza, which lead to the establishment of sentinel hospital-based surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in several countries in Europe. The objective of this study is to describe characteristics of SARI patients and to explore risk factors for a severe outcome in influenza-positive SARI patients. METHODS: Data on hospitalised patients meeting a syndromic SARI case definition between 2009 and 2012 from nine countries in Eastern Europe (Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Romania, Russian Federation and Ukraine) were included in this study. An exploratory analysis was performed to assess the association between risk factors and a severe (ICU, fatal) outcome in influenza-positive SARI patients using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Nine countries reported a total of 13,275 SARI patients. The majority of SARI patients reported in these countries were young children. A total of 12,673 SARI cases (95%) were tested for influenza virus and 3377 (27%) were laboratory confirmed. The majority of tested SARI cases were from Georgia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine and the least were from Kyrgyzstan. The proportion positive varied by country, season and age group, with a tendency to a higher proportion positive in the 15+ yrs age group in six of the countries. ICU admission and fatal outcome were most often recorded for influenza-positive SARI cases aged > 15 yrs. An exploratory analysis using pooled data from influenza-positive SARI cases in three countries showed that age > 15 yrs, having lung, heart, kidney or liver disease, and being pregnant were independently associated with a fatal outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Countries in Eastern Europe have been able to collect data through routine monitoring of severe influenza and results on risk factors for a severe outcome in influenza-positive SARI cases have identified several risk groups. This is especially relevant in the light of an overall low vaccination uptake and antiviral use in Eastern Europe, since information on risk factors will help in targeting and prioritising vulnerable populations.

A chest radiograph scoring system in patients with severe acute respiratory infection: a validation study.

BACKGROUND: The term severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) encompasses a heterogeneous group of respiratory illnesses. Grading the severity of SARI is currently reliant on indirect disease severity measures such as respiratory and heart rate, and the need for oxygen or intensive care. With the lungs being the primary organ system involved in SARI, chest radiographs (CXRs) are potentially useful for describing disease severity. Our objective was to develop and validate a SARI CXR severity scoring system. METHODS: We completed validation within an active SARI surveillance project, with SARI defined using the World Health Organization case definition of an acute respiratory infection with a history of fever, or measured fever of ≥ 38 °C; and cough; and with onset within the last 10 days; and requiring hospital admission. We randomly selected 250 SARI cases. Admission CXR findings were categorized as: 1 = normal; 2 = patchy atelectasis and/or hyperinflation and/or bronchial wall thickening; 3 = focal consolidation; 4 = multifocal consolidation; and 5 = diffuse alveolar changes. Initially, four radiologists scored CXRs independently. Subsequently, a pediatrician, physician, two residents, two medical students, and a research nurse independently scored CXR reports. Inter-observer reliability was determined using a weighted Kappa (κ) for comparisons between radiologists; radiologists and clinicians; and clinicians. Agreement was defined as moderate (κ > 0.4-0.6), good (κ > 0.6-0.8) and very good (κ > 0.8-1.0). RESULTS: Agreement between the two pediatric radiologists was very good (κ = 0.83, 95% CI 0.65-1.00) and between the two adult radiologists was good (κ = 0.75, 95% CI 0.57-0. 93). Agreement of the clinicians with the radiologists was moderate-to-good (pediatrician:κ = 0.65; pediatric resident:κ = 0.69; physician:κ = 0.68; resident:κ = 0.67; research nurse:κ = 0.49, medical students: κ = 0.53 and κ = 0.56). Agreement between clinicians was good-to-very good (pediatrician vs. physician:κ = 0.85; vs. pediatric resident:κ = 0.81; vs. medicine resident:κ = 0.76; vs. research nurse:κ = 0.75; vs. medical students:κ = 0.63 and 0.66). Following review of discrepant CXR report scores by clinician pairs, κ values for radiologist-clinician agreement ranged from 0.59 to 0.70 and for clinician-clinician agreement from 0.97 to 0.99. CONCLUSIONS: This five-point CXR scoring tool, suitable for use in poorly- and well-resourced settings and by clinicians of varying experience levels, reliably describes SARI severity. The resulting numerical data enables epidemiological comparisons of SARI severity between different countries and settings.

Notifiable disease reporting among public sector physicians in Nigeria: a cross-sectional survey to evaluate possible barriers and identify best sources of information.

BACKGROUND: Since 2001, Nigeria has collected information on epidemic-prone and other diseases of public health importance through the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response system (IDSR). Currently 23 diseases are designated as "notifiable" through IDSR, including human infection with avian influenza (AI). Following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in Nigerian poultry populations in 2006 and one laboratory confirmed human infection in 2007, a study was carried out to describe knowledge, perceptions, and practices related to infectious disease reporting through the IDSR system, physicians' preferred sources of heath information, and knowledge of AI infection in humans among public sector physicians in Nigeria. METHODS: During November to December 2008, 245 physicians in six Nigerian cities were surveyed through in-person interviews. Survey components included reporting practices for avian influenza and other notifiable diseases, perceived obstacles to disease reporting, methods for obtaining health-related information, and knowledge of avian influenza among participating physicians. RESULTS: All 245 respondents reported that they had heard of AI and that humans could become infected with AI. Two-thirds (163/245) had reported a notifiable disease. The most common perceived obstacles to reporting were lack of infrastructure/logistics or reporting system (76/245, 31%), lack of knowledge among doctors about how to report or to whom to report (64/245, 26%), and that doctors should report certain infectious diseases (60/245, 24%). Almost all participating physicians (>99%) reported having a cell phone that they currently use, and 86% reported using the internet at least weekly. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of physicians surveyed were knowledgeable of and had reported notifiable diseases, they identified many perceived obstacles to reporting. In order to effectively identify human AI cases and other infectious diseases through IDSR, reporting system requirements need to be clearly communicated to participating physicians, and perceived obstacles, such as lack of infrastructure, need to be addressed. Future improvements to the reporting system should account for increased utilization of the internet, as well as cell phone and email-based communication.

Assessment of Joint and Interactive Effects of Multimorbidity and Chronic Pain on ADRD Risk in the Elder Population.

Objective: Multimorbidity and non-cancer chronic pain conditions (NCPC) are independently linked to elevated risk for cognitive impairment and incident Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD)-both - We present the study of potential joint and interactive effects of these conditions on the risk of incident ADRD in older population. Methods: This retrospective-cohort study drew baseline and 2-year follow-up data from linked Medicare claims and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Baseline multimorbidity and NCPC were ascertained using claims data. ADRD was ascertained at baseline and follow-up. Results: NCPC accompanied by multimorbidity (vs. absence of NCPC or multimorbidity) had a significant and upward association with incident ADRD (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.72, 95% CI 1.38, 2.13, p < 0.0001). Secondary analysis by number of comorbid conditions suggested that the joint effects of NCPC and multimorbidity on ADRD risk may increase with rising number contributing chronic conditions. Interaction analyses indicated significantly elevated excess risk for incident ADRD.

Feasibility and Utility of a Pilot Peer Education Program to Improve Patient Engagement in Lupus Clinical Trials: Implementation and Evaluation in a Multisite Model Within a Lupus Clinical Trials Network.

OBJECTIVE: To assess outcomes related to Lupus Therapeutics' Patient Advocates for Lupus Studies (LT-PALS), a peer-to-peer lupus clinical trial (LCT) education program designed to improve representation of diverse groups in LCTs. Patients with lupus and clinical trial participation experience were trained as peer educators (PALs) providing trial-agnostic education to trial-naive patients with lupus. METHODS: We used a two-arm, randomized pretest/posttest study design to evaluate outcomes related to LCT participation: knowledge, attitudes, self-efficacy, and intentions to participate in an LCT. Five academic medical centers piloted the program. The intervention group (IG) individually received peer-to-peer education sessions with trained PALs, primarily via telephone; the control group (CG) received a 3-week waiting period. We conducted within/between-group t-tests and multiple linear regressions with posttest scores as dependent variables and participation in LT-PALS as the exposure variable. RESULTS: The sample (n = 136) included 64 IG and 72 CG participants, with 67.7% identifying as Black. At posttest, IG participants had higher knowledge (P < 0.01) scores than the CG participants. Regression models controlling for participant characteristics showed higher IG posttest scores for knowledge (P < 0.001) and intentions (P < 0.05). From pretest to 3-month follow-up, IG self-efficacy scores increased (P < 0.01). About half (46.9%) of IG participants reported engagement with an LCT at 1-year follow-up. Black and Hispanic participants rated higher overall program satisfaction compared with White (P < 0.01) and non-Hispanic (P < 0.05) participants. CONCLUSION: Findings demonstrated feasibility of LT-PALS and showed promise in increasing engagement from groups underrepresented in LCTs.

Lupus and community-based social work.

Systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease that disproportionately strikes women of color. SLE patients frequently experience physical, emotional, and social challenges that often result in unmet biopsychosocial needs. Because of the nature of the disease and the needs of patients, agencies serving SLE patients that engage in community-based social work can positively impact their clients' lives. The S.L.E. Lupus Foundation participates in a myriad of community-based social work practices to help address the needs of their clients. These services include helping economically disadvantaged patients access appropriate services within their communities, building awareness about SLE in society, connecting with government officials at all levels, and collaborating with health care organizations to serve those affected by SLE. Specific examples of community-based activities at the S.L.E. Lupus Foundation are described in detail.

Increased Odds of Incident Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias in Presence of Common Non-Cancer Chronic Pain Conditions in Appalachian Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing concern regarding the increasing prevalence of common non-cancer chronic pain conditions (NCPCs) and their possible association with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). However, large population-based studies are limited, especially in Appalachian and other predominantly rural, underserved populations who suffer elevated prevalence of both NCPCs and known ADRD risk factors. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the relation of NCPC to risk of incident ADRD in older Appalachian Medicare beneficiaries and explored the potential mediating effects of mood and sleep disorders. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed the overall and cumulative association of common diagnosed NCPCs at baseline to incident ADRD in 161,573 elders ≥65 years, Medicare fee-for-service enrollees, 2013-2015. NCPCs and ADRD were ascertained using claims data. Additional competing risk for death analyses accounted for potential survival bias. MAIN FINDINGS: Presence of any NCPC at baseline was associated with significantly increased odds for incident ADRD after adjustment for covariates [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.26 (1.20, 1.32), p < .0001]. The magnitude and strength of this association increased significantly with rising burden of NCPCs at baseline [AOR for ≥4 vs. no NCPC = 1.65 (1.34, 2.03), p-trend = .01]. The addition of depression and anxiety, but not sleep disorders, modestly attenuated these associations [AORs for any NCPC and ≥4 NCPCs, respectively = 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) and 1.39 (1.13, 1.71)], suggesting a partial mediating role of mood impairment. Sensitivity analyses, multinomial logistic regressions accounting for risk of death, yielded comparable findings. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of older Appalachian Medicare beneficiaries, baseline NCPCs showed a strong, positive, dose-response relationship to odds for incident ADRD; this association appeared partially mediated by depression and anxiety. Further longitudinal research in this and other high-risk, rural populations are needed to evaluate the causal relation between NCPC and ADRD.

Variations in Hepatitis B Vaccine Series Completion by Setting Among Adults at Risk in West Virginia.

INTRODUCTION: West Virginia leads the nation with the highest rate of acute hepatitis B. From 2013 to 2015, the West Virginia hepatitis B Vaccination Pilot Project distributed more than 10,000 doses of hepatitis B vaccine to at-risk adults through local health department clinics and through outreach to correctional facilities and substance use treatment centers. This study aims to determine which setting type is associated with the greatest likelihood of at-risk adults receiving all 3 or at least 2 doses of hepatitis B vaccine. METHODS: Data for this retrospective cohort study were accessed, extracted, and analyzed in 2019 from Pilot Project participant forms initially completed from 2013 to 2015. Odds of receiving all 3 or at least 2 doses were calculated using bivariate, multivariable, and mixed-effects regression models. RESULTS: Data were available for 1,201 participants. In multivariable logistic regression, participants vaccinated at substance use treatment centers (AOR=1.37, 95% CI=1.01, 1.86) and local health department family planning clinics (AOR=3.74, 95% CI=1.98, 7.06) were more likely to receive the 3-dose series versus those vaccinated at local health department sexually transmitted disease clinics. Participants vaccinated through substance use treatment centers (AOR=1.79, 95% CI=1.31, 2.44), correctional facilities (AOR=3.34, 95% CI=2.09, 5.34), and local health department family planning clinics (AOR=3.97, 95% CI=1.72, 9.16) were more likely to receive at least 2 doses. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis B vaccination delivered at local health department family planning clinics, substance use treatment centers, or correctional facilities may increase vaccine dose completion in West Virginia.

Estimating burden of influenza-associated influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection at public healthcare facilities in Romania during the 2011/12-2015/16 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality, but there is limited information on reliable disease burden estimates, especially from middle-income countries in the WHO European Region. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of medically attended influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) presenting to public healthcare facilities in Romania. PATIENTS/METHODS: Sentinel influenza surveillance data for ILI and SARI from 2011/12-2015/16, including virological data, were used to estimate influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence/100 000 and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: The overall annual incidence of ILI and influenza-associated ILI per 100 000 persons in Romania varied between 68 (95% CI: 61-76) and 318 (95% CI: 298-338) and between 23 (95% CI: 19-29) and 189 (95% CI: 149-240), respectively. The highest ILI and influenza incidence was among children aged 0-4 years. We estimated that SARI incidence per 100 000 persons was 6 (95% CI: 5-7) to 9 (95% CI: 8-10), of which 2 (95% CI: 1-2) to 3 (95% CI: 2-4) were due to influenza. Up to 0.3% of the Romanian population were annually reported with ILI, and 0.01% was hospitalized with SARI, of which as much as one-third could be explained by influenza. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation was the first study estimating influenza burden in Romania. We found that during each influenza season, a substantial number of persons in Romania suffer from influenza-related ILI or are hospitalized due to influenza-associated SARI.

Team performance and risk-adjusted health outcomes in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE).

PURPOSE: The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) is a community-based program providing primary, acute, and long-term care to frail elderly individuals. A central component of the PACE model is the interdisciplinary care team, which includes both professionals and non-professionals. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the team's overall performance and the risk-adjusted health outcomes of program enrollees. DESIGN AND METHODS: The study included interdisciplinary teams in 26 PACE programs and 3,401 individuals enrolled in them. We combined information about individuals' health, functional, and mental status from DataPACE with an overall measure of team performance. We used multivariate regression techniques to test the hypothesis that better team performance is associated with better risk-adjusted health outcomes: survival and short-term (within 3 months of enrollment) and long-term (within 12 months of enrollment) improvements in functional status and in urinary incontinence. RESULTS: Team performance was significantly associated with better functional outcomes (both short and long term) and with better long-term urinary incontinence outcomes. There was no significant association with survival. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides empirical evidence for the relationship between team performance and patient outcomes in long-term care. It suggests that PACE programs can improve patient outcomes by improving the functioning of care teams.

The potential risks and impact of the start of the 2015-2016 influenza season in the WHO European Region: a rapid risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015-2016 season compared to previous seasons. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season METHODS: Using the WHO manual for rapid risk assessment of acute public health events and surveillance data available from Flu News Europe, an assessment of the current influenza season from 28 September 2015 (week 40/2015) up to 31 January 2016 (week 04/2016) was made compared with the 4 previous seasons. RESULTS: The current influenza season started around week 51/2015 with higher influenza activity reported in eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. There is a strong predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to previous seasons, but the virus is antigenically similar to the strain included in the seasonal influenza vaccine. Compared to the 2014/2015 season, there was a rapid increase in the number of severe cases in eastern European countries with the majority of such cases occurring among adults aged <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current influenza season is characterised by an early start in eastern European countries, with indications of a more severe season. Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are similar antigenically to those included in the seasonal influenza vaccine and the vaccine is expected to be effective. Authorities should provide information to the public and health providers about the current influenza season, recommendations for treatment of severe disease and effective public health measures to prevent influenza transmission. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts.

BACKGROUND: Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel. METHODS: We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location. RESULTS: Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.

Pulmonary ultrasonographic abnormalities associated with naturally occurring equine influenza virus infection in standardbred racehorses.

The purpose of this investigation was to determine if naturally occurring acute infectious upper respiratory disease (IRD) caused by equine influenza virus is associated with ultrasonographically detectable pleural and pulmonary abnormalities in horses. Standardbred racehorses were evaluated for signs of IRD, defined as acute coughing or mucopurulent nasal discharge. For every horse with IRD (n = 16), 1 or 2 horses with no signs of IRD and the same owner or trainer (n = 30) were included. Thoracic ultrasonography was performed within 5-10 days of the onset of clinical disease in horses with IRD. Horses without IRD were examined at the same time as the horses with IRD with which they were enrolled. The rank of the ultrasound scores of horses with IRD was compared to that of horses without IRD. Equine influenza virus was identified as the primary etiologic agent associated with IRD in this study. Mild lung consolidation and peripheral pulmonary irregularities were found in 11 (69%) of 16 of the horses with IRD and 11 (37%) of 30 of control horses. Lung consolidation (median score = 1) and peripheral irregularities scores (median score = 1) were greater in horses with IRD compared to horses without IRD (median score = 0; P < .05). Pleural effusion was not observed. Equine influenza virus infection can result in abnormalities of the equine lower respiratory tract. Despite the mild nature of IRD observed in this study, lung consolidation and peripheral pulmonary irregularities were more commonly observed in horses with clinical signs of IRD. Further work is needed to determine the clinical significance of these ultrasonographic abnormalities.

Evaluation of forelimb horseshoe characteristics of thoroughbreds racing on dirt surfaces.

OBJECTIVE: To describe forelimb horseshoe characteristics of horses racing on dirt surfaces and determine whether these characteristics vary with region of California, season, horse characteristics, and race-related factors. ANIMALS: 5,730 Thoroughbred racehorses. PROCEDURE: From June 17, 2000, to June 16, 2001, the characteristics of 1 forelimb horseshoe of horses that raced on dirt surfaces at 5 major racetracks in California were recorded. These characteristics included shoe type; toe grab height; and presence of a rim, pad, and heel traction devices (jar caulks, heel stickers, heel blocks, and special nails). Horse and race information was obtained from commercial records. One race/horse was randomly selected. RESULTS: 99% of forelimb horseshoes were aluminum racing plates, 35% had a pad, 23% had a rim, and 8% had a heel traction device. A toe grab was observed on 75% of forelimb horseshoes (14% very low [< or = 2 mm], 30% low [> 2 and < or = 4 mm], 30% regular [> 4 and < or = 6 mm], and 1% high [> 6 and < or = 8 mm]). Forelimb horseshoe characteristics varied with region of California, season, age and sex of the horse, race purse and distance, and track surface condition. Log-linear modeling revealed that all of these factors were significantly interrelated. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Complex interrelationships among forelimb horseshoe characteristics and region, season, age and sex of the horse, and race-related factors need to be considered when evaluating the relationships between injury and horseshoe characteristics in Thoroughbred racehorses.

Observer variation in visual assessment of forelimb horseshoe characteristics on Thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy and reliability of a visual method of evaluating horseshoe characteristics. ANIMALS: 1,199 Thoroughbred racehorses. PROCEDURE: Characteristics of 1 forelimb horseshoe were visually assessed on horses immediately prior to racing by 5 field observers at 5 major racetracks in California. Characteristics evaluated included horseshoe type; toe grab height; and the presence of a rim, pad, and heel traction devices. Sensitivity and specificity for observer assessment of horseshoe characteristics were calculated by comparing observer assessments to a postmortem laboratory standard for horses that died within 48 hours of a race. Intraobserver agreement was assessed in a subset of horses by comparing horseshoe observations made before and after the horse's race. Interobserver agreement was evaluated by comparing horseshoe assessment among observers who examined the same subset of horses prior to racing on select days. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of this visual method of evaluating horseshoe characteristics were good and ranged from 0.75 to 1 and 0.67 to 1, respectively. Agreement beyond chance (weighted kappa values) between observers and the laboratory standard for toe grab height was fair (0.60 to 0.62). Intraobserver and interobserver agreements (kappa values) were high (0.86 to 0.99 and 0.71 to 1, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Visual observation of horseshoes can be a feasible and reproducible method for assessing horseshoe characteristics prospectively in a large cohort of horses under racing conditions.