Predictors of clinical outcomes in acute decompensated heart failure: Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure outcome models.

BACKGROUND: Patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are at high risk for early mortality and rehospitalization. Risk stratification of ADHF using clinically available data on admission is increasingly important to integrate with clinical pathways. Our goal was to create a simple method of screening patients upon admission to identify those with increased risk of future adverse events. METHODS: Using ASCEND-HF, a pragmatic clinical trial conducted in 398 sites globally, we developed and validated logistic regression risk models for (a) 30-day mortality/HF rehospitalization, (b) 30-day mortality/all-cause rehospitalization, (c) 30-day all-cause mortality, and (d) 180-day all-cause mortality. Fifty-one candidate variables were evaluated based on prior publications and clinical review. Final models were selected based on stepwise selection with entry and a staying criterion of P < .01. The 30-day mortality model was externally validated, and coefficients were converted to an additive risk score. RESULTS: Among 7,141 patients, the median age was 67 years, 34% were female, and 80% had a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. The models had between 5 and 12 risk factors with c-indices ranging from 0.68 to 0.75. A simplified score, including age, systolic blood pressure, sodium, blood urea nitrogen, and dyspnea at rest, discriminated 30-day mortality risk from 0.5% (score 0) to 53% (score 10). CONCLUSIONS: Commonly available clinical variables provide simple risk stratification for clinical outcomes among patients with ADHF, and these models may be considered for integration into routine clinical care.

Geographic Differences in Patients in a Global Acute Heart Failure Clinical Trial (from the ASCEND-HF Trial).

A growing number of countries and geographical regions are involved in major clinical trials. Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure is the largest trial in acutely decompensated heart failure (HF) with patients from 5 geographical regions: North America (NA), Latin America (LA), Western Europe (WE), Central Europe (CE), and Asia-Pacific (AP). Data from the 5 geographical areas were compared including baseline characteristics, medications, 30-day outcomes (mortality and mortality or HF hospitalization), and 180-day mortality. Of the 7,141 study patients, 3,243 (45.4%) were from NA (average of 15.2 patients/site), 1,762 (24.7%) from AP (28.4 patients/site), 967 (13.5%) from CE (20.2 patients/site), 665 (9.3%) from LA (17.1 patients/site), and 504 (7.1%) from WE (14.4 patients/site). There were marked differences in co-morbidities, clinical profile, medication use, length of stay, 30-day event rates, and 180-day mortality by region. Compared with NA, the adjusted risk for death or HF hospitalization at 30 days was significantly lower in CE (odds ratio [OR] 0.46, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.64), WE (OR 0.52 95% CI 0.35 to 0.75), and AP (OR 0.62 95% CI 0.48 to 0.79) and numerically lower in LA (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.04) with similar results for 180-day mortality. In conclusion, in patients with acutely decompensated HF, major differences in baseline characteristics, treatments, length of the hospital stay, and 30-day HF rehospitalization rates, and 180-day mortality were found in patients enrolled from different geographical areas.

Predictors of early dyspnoea relief in acute heart failure and the association with 30-day outcomes: findings from ASCEND-HF.

AIMS: To examine the characteristics associated with early dyspnoea relief during acute heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and its association with 30-day outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: ASCEND-HF was a randomized trial of nesiritide vs. placebo in 7141 patients hospitalized with acute HF in which dyspnoea relief at 6 h was measured on a 7-point Likert scale. Patients were classified as having early dyspnoea relief if they experienced moderate or marked dyspnoea improvement at 6 h. We analysed the clinical characteristics, geographical variation, and outcomes (mortality, mortality/HF hospitalization, and mortality/hospitalization at 30 days) associated with early dyspnoea relief. Early dyspnoea relief occurred in 2984 patients (43%). In multivariable analyses, predictors of dyspnoea relief included older age and oedema on chest radiograph; higher systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, and natriuretic peptide level; and lower serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN), sodium, and haemoglobin (model mean C index = 0.590). Dyspnoea relief varied markedly across countries, with patients enrolled from Central Europe having the lowest risk-adjusted likelihood of improvement. Early dyspnoea relief was associated with lower risk-adjusted 30-day mortality/HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.96] and mortality/hospitalization (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.99), but similar mortality. CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics such as respiratory rate, pulmonary oedema, renal function, and natriuretic peptide levels are associated with early dyspnoea relief, and moderate or marked improvement in dyspnoea was associated with a lower risk for 30-day outcomes.

Troponin I in acute decompensated heart failure: insights from the ASCEND-HF study.

AIMS: We examined the prognostic importance of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in a cohort of patients enrolled in the ASCEND-HF study of nesiritide in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Circulating troponins are a prognostic marker in patients with ADHF. Contemporary assays with greater sensitivity require reassessment of the significance of troponin elevation in HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiac troponin I was measured in a core laboratory in 808 ADHF patients enrolled in the ASCEND-HF biomarkers substudy using a sensitive assay (VITROS Trop I ES, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics) with a lower limit of detection of 0.012 ng/mL and a 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) of 0.034 ng/mL. Patients with clinical evidence of acute coronary syndrome or troponin >5× the URL were excluded. Multivariable modelling was used to assess the relationship between log(cTnI) and in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes. Baseline cTnI was undetectable in 22% and elevated above the 99th percentile URL in 50% of subjects. cTnI levels did not differ based on HF aetiology. After multivariable adjustment, higher cTnI was associated with worsened in-hospital outcomes such as length of stay (P = 0.01) and worsening HF during the index hospitalization (P = 0.01), but was not associated with worsened post-discharge outcomes at 30 or 180 days. The relationship between cTnI and outcomes was generally linear and there was no evidence of a threshold effect at any particular level of cTnI. CONCLUSION: cTnI is elevated above the 99th percentile URL in 50% of ADHF patients and predicts in-hospital outcome, but is not an independent predictor of long-term outcomes.